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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Captkerosene
Member
It was a Sawyer Merritt video of a brief interview after the meeting. I summarized because I hadn't seen it on the board and I thought that it was important.
There was a copy of the Musk/Modi tweets several posts back. Looked like more than a relationship was formed ... maybe a friendship. I'm a big, big fan of Modi.
I like how the first article goes on about "market saturation" as the batteries will be able to provide the energy needed to supplement in a crisis. As if more batteries won't be practical once that saturation point has been reached.
They avoid directly mentioning how more storage allows less waste from solar and wind, which, once stored, will begin to replace the abundance of gas and coal producers. This will happen because the renewable electricity will be less expensive and abundant. Onlyfoolsthose profiting from fossil fueled production, and those locked into having to buy from the old guard will be paying the higher rates. Word will get around.
The article does hint at this aspect without coming right out and saying that renewables will slowly and steadily replace all less efficient means of energy production.
Hence, the careful choice of words when defining the mission. "accelerate the transition" is warm and fuzzy and avoids being a direct threat, even though to some, it certainly is. That's okay, they'll find other work farming wind and sunlight into energy, or flipping burgers. At least until Optimus fills those roles as well.
Believe in the Elon of the Musks.
Where the students High Calibre?
Has all been brewing since the plummet to $100, a lot of folks converted shares to LEAPS at that moment, and so it began
Unimpressive Q1 margins stalled the charge, but the shareholder's meeting signalled a massive shift in sentiment, call buying accelerated, Gamma squeeze got going, FOMO kicked-in, short get squeezed, etc.
The NACS thing has just added to the frenzy, it seems very similar to the Hertz moment, nothing fundamental changed, Tesla won't sell more cars or make more revenue, but it validates the company to a wider audience
As we've seen in the past, the SP becomes unstoppable, until something triggers a reverse Gamma when calls start to get sold off. After Hertz it was Elon's selling antics that killed it, we were heading for $1400 until that moment, and my retirement was secured, sigh...
What's going to stop it this time? Q2 margins coming in lower than Q1? Might, don't know
Did you find an MS LR for yourself yet?
cliff harris
Member
Maybe... But its worth remembering that the cybertruck design is extremely polarizing. The model S basically looked like a jaguar, and was targeted at the sort of people who had a jaguar. Thats an easy sell, apart from making the ICE-EV shift.
The cybertruck is something people lvoe or hate, PLUS initially people WILL stare at your truck a lot. They will take photos of it, they will want to pose with it, talk to the owner. Not everyone wants that, although I suspect the first 10,000 owners are going to be the kind who really do.
I think the cybertruck will do very well in North America, and also middle east if ever sold there, maybe also Africa if sold there. I'm not sure its 'bland' enough to completely dominate the market though, at least not for a good few years until everyone has seen one, and they start looking more normal.
I dont think it could ever sell in the UK, but what with Tesla abandoning the S and X here, it seems like Tesla wont sell future vehicles here anyway
I’m just looking at the inventory to see how it evolves. December or March would be ideal months to buy a new one (my drive train warranty expires at the end of March and I ‘d rather spent 15K on a new car than on a refurbished battery).
And the config I would choose is not in stock anyway (LR, 19”, cream interior, blue).
And I might cave in to the social pressure here and go for a Plaid.
One thing that definitely makes me reluctant to buy an inventory car right now is that none of these are Autopilot 4 cars. I buy something to drive for 8 years and it ‘d better be the latest hardware.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
By definition, fire discipline is the language of fire control. "It consists of words, phrases, rules, and conventions which have specific meanings and which result in some definite action being taken with the guns."
I spent 10 years on the guns, and in the command post. My job title was "Command Post Officer". Common complaints from Gun Sergeants typically were phrased as "take the **** out of your mouth" if you mumbled.
Clear communication is of utmost importance when lives are literally on the line (mostly at the pointy end, with the troops you are supporting but can not see - that's the role of the "Forward Observation Officer").
Looking back, the curriculum at the Artillery School was excellent preparation for Wall St. war games.
Well chosen words. Looks like the transformation from geek to international ambassador meeting with world leaders, is pretty much complete
It is a good and true rag...son of a stock broker...saw it felt it...true in 1960s, 70s, 80s...true today
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Indeed, I was going to make this same point. Back in Fall 2021, TSLA went from ~$316 on Oct 25 with the Hertz announcement to it's ATH ~$411 on Nov 5. That's just 9 trading days.
Well, difficult to know, but I'll bet it WILL NOT be Dan O'Downer and his crash-test dummy Ross Gerber on tomorrow's planned
Cheers!
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why low ball it?Well this worked yesterday so let's try this again...
Let's see if we can hit $300 by the end of this week!
cliff harris
Member
Reasons to be optimistic about the stock right now:
I think the stock may take a hit with Q2 financials. The price war is real and margins will fall. Some people will be surprised. I expect it to be fully reversed once production cybertrucks appear though.
- Looks like they are still making Tesla semis. Maybe they are using them internally?
- Tweet about 4680 milestone implies ramp is still making progress
- Cybertruck in New Zealand implies last minute testing before trial production?
- NACS now dominates. Only a matter of time for hyundai, Lucid, everyone else to agree
- Elon is in global statesman mode, playing countries against each other to get the best incentives
- Surely close to a highland reveal soon?
I think the stock may take a hit with Q2 financials. The price war is real and margins will fall. Some people will be surprised. I expect it to be fully reversed once production cybertrucks appear though.
SebastienBonny
Member
We all know TSLA could go to ATH very quickly, but staying there won't be sustainable with Q2 numers likely to disappoint many people.
Could be a bit for the CT to actually hit production levels.
FYI: the winter testing park in New Zealand only operates a 12 week window from June to September, so the timing of the cybertruck arrival there may not be any sort of indication of launch or production timing.
India GF for righthand drive, conveniently between UK and AU, with largest market India itself (model Too) so fewer ships necessary.I dont think it could ever sell in the UK, but what with Tesla abandoning the S and X here, it seems like Tesla wont sell future vehicles here anyway
It seemed a weird message. The “saturation” seemed to refer to stationary storage given current Texas energy mix. But as one speaker pointed out, solar is still growing quickly, and additional batteries will be needed in the future.More about ERCOT. Apparently Market saturation of renewables in Texas by 5/2024?
Is the ERCOT Battery Storage Market Going to Saturate Next Year? - World-Energy
The massive buildout of battery storage in the ERCOT, Texas market and the risk of market saturation was a huge talking point at Energy Storage Summit USA last month.Taking place over two days in the capital Austin, the ERCOT market and its soaring batterwww.world-energy.org
Edit: Texas operational capacity is ~142 GW and peak demand (historic highest) hit at 80GW last year. Its about to raise the peak again, most likely, at 82GW peak.
ERCOT expects record peak demand Wednesday as Texas regulators continue work on reliability standard
The grid operator for most of Texas anticipates sufficient resources as it forecasts demand near 83 GW on June 21, but observers note coal and gas plant outages are higher than anticipated.www.utilitydive.com
It seems to me that the “saturation” is more a temporary plateau until cheap solar eradicates the
Edit: catching up this morning. @2daMoon said it better.
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