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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Bullish sign, TSLA ready for liftoff :)

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Guess someone called and was upset they were not getting their $ worth from their ad budget:

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Quick newbie question, I don't understand the Tesla graph below. From wikipedia, the top computer in the world is 1.6 ExaFlops. In 2024, Is Tesla aiming to be 100x more powerful with 100 Exa-Flops? And if you have 1/3rd of GPus in early2024, are you at 33Exaflops? It doesn't match the top 5 in the world (approx. 1Exa-flop).

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First, by the end of the year, the top performing computer should break 2 EF.
Second, this might refer to the top 5 GPU clusters simply by count.
Third, it's unclear whether that graph claims to be among the top 5, or exceed the top five combined.
Fourth, top computers are ranked based on FP64 performance.
AFAIR Dojo is optimized for int8. So maube you might be comparinfäg different units...

So in the end, make of it what you want. ;)

In effect they just announced start of Dojo production/commissioning and expect exponential scaling...
 
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So, assuming Jordan’s deep dive into lithium mining is correct, Tesla has a constraint against growing 50% YoY, right?

Not so fast. If you look at Tesla 50% YoY revenue growth (which is what matters for stock price) as opposed to unit vehicle growth, Tesla has quite a few revenue options even with lithium supply constraints.

First, the $25K car will use less lithium (smaller battery), but that decreases revenue, but then see below.

Second, Teslabot. IF Tesla pulls off humanoid robot use cases, Teslabot is a $500K value machine which uses a tiny amount of lithium (it’s battery pack will be on the order of 10 kWh). Tesla will rent these out for $10/hr and make tons of revenue using very little lithium per revenue dollar.

Third, of course, is robotaxi. The same amount of lithium per vehicle will now generate 2x or 5x or whatever revenue since Tesla will get taxi revenue.

If I’m correct, this is all classic Elon. He sees an unavoidable bottleneck in 3-5 years and comes up with a way to keep growing even with that unavoidable constraint. He did it brilliantly with SpaceX (he was going to hit a revenue ceiling with launches, so he created Starlink which uses tons more launch and pays for itself).

So, while Jordan’s lithium forecast may very well be right, Tesla will keep growing fast despite it.
I forgot another revenue source that Tesla will likely have by 2030. This has NOT been announced, so this is speculation.

Tesla is moving to a 48V architecture and I suspect will be building many of these components in house as the suppliers just haven’t been moving fast enough in that direction. I suspect that Gigafactory Mexico will be manufacturing a lot of these 48v components, and I suspect Tesla will sell these to the industry.

That’s quite a speculation chain, but … you heard it here first 😄
 
Tesla is moving to a 48V architecture and I suspect will be building many of these components in house as the suppliers just haven’t been moving fast enough in that direction. I suspect that Gigafactory Mexico will be manufacturing a lot of these 48v components, and I suspect Tesla will sell these to the industry.
I suspect Tesla will be consuming all of it's production for a long time.
 
I forgot another revenue source that Tesla will likely have by 2030. This has NOT been announced, so this is speculation.

Tesla is moving to a 48V architecture and I suspect will be building many of these components in house as the suppliers just haven’t been moving fast enough in that direction. I suspect that Gigafactory Mexico will be manufacturing a lot of these 48v components, and I suspect Tesla will sell these to the industry.

That’s quite a speculation chain, but … you heard it here first 😄
I think we have talked about that possibility before. But one issue with that is that the Cybertruck is supposed to be 48v and going into production as we speak. Obviously, they aren't getting the parts from Giga Mexico right now... Where are they coming from? Has Tesla spun up initial pilot lines somewhere, or did they find suppliers to make the parts for them?
 
I think we have talked about that possibility before. But one issue with that is that the Cybertruck is supposed to be 48v and going into production as we speak. Obviously, they aren't getting the parts from Giga Mexico right now... Where are they coming from? Has Tesla spun up initial pilot lines somewhere, or did they find suppliers to make the parts for them?
I would imagine the tier 1s had no problem going to 48V. It has always been the auto guys that were the block.
 
Speculative small cap stocks doing exceptionally well today while large cap stocks are red. Russel is on fire today. Very interesting as this doesn't look like the sign of a bear market incoming....
Possibly related to an announced rebalancing of Nasdaq100, which reduces the weight of the top 7?
 
Oil&gas utilities will be gone by then (please lmk if y'all think differently) and 30-40% of carbon emissions should, hopefully, be gone in 2025. I think its probably why inflation will reduce so much and they expect the economy to go towards growth. Thoughts?

Article is behind a paywall so bit hard give any thoughts
 
There is a sales tax on the U.S. equity trades, in the form of an SEC fee (currently $8 per $1M sold).


Market Makers are exempt from this 'per-transaction' fee for their own proprietary trading. Instead, MMs have negotiated fixed monthly SEC fees which allows MMs and Hedge funds to conduct high-frequency trading w/o any additional financial cost (legalizing manipulation).
Really the solutions are quite simple and specific IMHO.
First, tax all short sales including any made by market makers, say, 2% of security price when shorted, deducted from transaction at time of short initiation;
Second, tax securities lending operations by taxing borrowers 3% of borrowed share value and lenders also 3%, each deducted at initiation date;
Third, tax gains on shorted stock sale at mandatory 15% of gain, deducted from proceeds;
Those are wildly implausible in the present environment, although FDR would have liked it;

However, for those participants which are FDIC insured (Another Glass-Steagall innovation that continues) supplemental premium charges can be easily justified by ensuring that short sale and securities lending are both categorized as high risk activities and require 100% capital charges. That one is both possible and administratively permissible, plus entirely compatible with Basel IV. Those requirements would need to be mandated as part risk modeling of each institution and could be easily coupled with mandatory explicit disclosure of such activities.

The Basel IV issues would apply to the majority of custodians, most major brokers, and avoids the SEC institutional disinclination to have any effective regulation at all for such activities, but in a different environment they should class short selling as a non-investment activity, hence discouraging those activities further.

We can be certain that these will NOT happen so long as the wealthiest entities such as Citadel have so much political clout. Without reform of US campaign finances any reform cannot ashen. In particular, prohibiting PAC's and removing Corporation ability to contribute unlimited support MUST happen to achieve any progress at all in the US.

Finally, other countries have unique problems but no major market is so blatantly structured to benefit market makers and speculators...not even Hong Kong/China.

These are my fantasies. 'Ain't gonna happen'!
 
I forgot another revenue source that Tesla will likely have by 2030. This has NOT been announced, so this is speculation.

Tesla is moving to a 48V architecture and I suspect will be building many of these components in house as the suppliers just haven’t been moving fast enough in that direction. I suspect that Gigafactory Mexico will be manufacturing a lot of these 48v components, and I suspect Tesla will sell these to the industry.

That’s quite a speculation chain, but … you heard it here first 😄
As with other major technological moves, once critical mass with suppliers exists the entire auto industry usually is very sudden in adoption. Electric starters and lights quickly became ubiquitous once practical mass -produced batteries appeared. Moving from 6v to 12v was equally fast. From radios, air-conditioning and power steering to radial tires and automative transmissions, seat belts and backup cameras some took longer than others, some were mandated by regulators.

With 48v the entire industry will move as quickly as model change cycles primarily because it will be cheaper, more reliable and lighter. OEM's toyed with that for Hybrid powertrains but suppliers ahem waited for OEMs while OEMs are waiting for suppliers. That wait has been diminished when Tesla made their move; everyone else will be doing it soon, and are already making the arrangements.

Why am I so certain? Because on this issue there are no losers, for suppliers it is not even complex to do.
In theory, perhaps, cable suppliers might lose but they are negligible forces anyway.
 
so to get this straight once and for all- i am not a "content provider" and i couldn't care less whether you "like" my content or not. i post here purely for my pleasure and do not suffer fools gladly.
Really? This argument implies we all should be happy to be serving your pleasure. This is a cooperative venture, so by definition we are intending to help each other learn.

If you have other motivations then many of us would put you on ignore because you tell us you're here only for your 'pleasure' and don't think you have 'content'.

That's good enough for a solid ignore!
 
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