MC3OZ
Active Member
Jordan is just repeating information from his sources, those who are tracking mining progress, there has been a long standing disagreement between Elon and those sources.It's not. Jordan's thesis is based upon the flimsiest logic that refining will outstrip mining, an unexamined premise only rooted to analogies to the past. Who do I trust to have more current inside information on the Lithium supply chain, Elon or Jordan? No, I think Jordan has gone over to the dark-green side, and instead of 'chasing the algorithm' on Youtube he's now 'pandering to patreons' for his income. Where else have we seen that go bad?
IMO the difference is easy to explain, Elon is focused on the biggest immediate problem for Tesla, and that required Tesla to get into Lithium refining at Texas.
Tesla hasn't officially abandoned Lithium extraction from clay, and Elon might have more of an insight into how new mines are progressing, or the availability of unprocessed Lithium under contracts Tesla has signed, or is about to sign.
The only slightly annoying thing is that Jordan's sources seem determined to prove they know more about mining that Elon does. It is nothing new, they have been hammering that point for 2-3 years. Like you, I suspect if will end no better than car industry experts who thought they knew more than Elon.
I don't blame Jordan, it is a complex topic, and perhaps the so called exerts do know more than Elon.
But if I thought I knew more than Elon, I would go back and check everything 10 times, before concluding that Elon was probably right anyway even though I didn't know why he was right.
Seems like both Lithium mining and refining have good margins, I am not sure it matters which has the highest margins. I doubt that Elon ever claimed there was less money in mining, The good margins miners make may be one reason why he anticipates that mining will ramp up.
Lithium mining happens in many places, refining is concentrated in China, Jordan covered that. I will not be surprised of Elon calls out Lithium mining as an issue at some future earnings call. it all depends on what the current bottleneck is.
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