You have lost it here. Tesla's HISTORICAL growth over the past 7.5 years is MORE than 50% (I challenge you to find out exactly what the HISTORY is for Tesla since the 2015 10-K). Report that number here, post charts if you dare.
Tesla
right now has the most exciting new product roadmap of any megacap company. What to you have (other than incredulity) which indicates Tesla will not do exactly as they've said they will do in the future, as they have in the past?
Argument by analogy ("
nobody's ever done that before")
will not cut it with Tesla. Personally, I've been lucky: My 5.25 yr CAGR is 66.7% as of now (charts posted upthread). In fact, the BIGGEST difference between Tesla today vs Jan 01, 2016 (just before Model 3) is that
Tesla no longer needs to go to the Market to raise cash. Indeed Tesla is printing $4B cash per quarter right now, and that's even while investing $8B/yr in
CapEx FUTURE GROWTH.
So, please mark
all of the following which you consider "unrealistic":
- Dojo production begining in July
- Cybertruck delivery event in Q3
- Model 3 "Highland" released in the $30K price range
- Megapacks 10K/yr in Lathrop in '23, + Shg in '24
- FSD Feature Complete within 18 mths (auto gross margins ↑ 15%)
- Optimus humanoid robot working in Tesla factories in 2024
- "Model 2" Compact car hits the streets in 2025, 2M/yr by 2026
- Semi production ramps to 100K/yr by 2026
- Compact car factories open in Asia and Europe by 2026
- Robotaxi's approved, total auto production hits 20M/yr by 2030
- all the while, COGS on existing products grind down -7%/yr due to:
- 48v architecture
- lower labor per unit
- $1K drive line cost per car
- Tesla battery + cathode production
- unboxed process backfilled to current factories
Now, I've purposely kept this list short, so it doesn't include Auto Insurance, Home solar/battery w. charger + HVAC, a worldwide charging network, Electrical grid innovations, or AI training and Robotics services. But you should get the idea.
You really should. As should all TSLA investors.
Good luck!