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One reason factory sites had multiple buildings was to limit potential fire damage. Is fire suppression today such that this thinking is obsolete?
Optimus Fireman Sam (Suppression And Management) for dangerous jobs.

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Actually a good use case - able to get into tight areas rather than relying on area suppression (damage) or humans (danger, smoke, by default not dressed properly).
 
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That's interesting.

On the cars side that would be Phase 1 of 500,000 and Phase 2 + 3 of 500,000 to go to 1,000,000/year total.

However there has always been considerable ambiguity about the intended Phase 1 in-house battery manufacturing capacity, which so far is making nothing as the 4680 machinery apparently was sent to Austin instead.

The Phase 2+3 battery capacity of 50 GWh/yr would be consistent with 500k/yr vehicles at 100 kWh cells/vehicle. Tesla norms are about 80 kWh/vehicle so either they will be doing lots of bigger vehicles (vans ?); or the Phase2+3 cells will be backfilling Phase1 vehicles; or some cells will go into stationary storage.

Nevetheless there is still ambiguity about the Phase 1 battery capacity, and I think Phase 1 was originally intended to do 100GWh which was always oversized if it was just going to feed a 500k/yr vehicle line.

"On the battery manufacturing front, the plant is said to have an annual capacity of up to 100 GWh to start with"

or
"I think it will possibly be the largest battery cell plant in the world. I think it will be the largest. It will be capable of over 100 GWh per year and possibly over time, it will be going over 200 to 250 GWh. I’m pretty confident that at that point, it will be the largest battery cell plant in the world."

Looking at the footprint/scale of the proposed A107+A108+A120 phase 2 +3 cell plants they seem about the same overall size as the phase 1 cell footprint.

The enlish translation text suggests that the newbuild is A120. If so then that for 50GWh suggests a huge as-yet-unused existing footprint for cell capacity. That is if they genuinely can now cram 50GWh/yr cell mfg into that footprint. Or is it just for pack assembly and with cell manufacturing elsewhere ? But that makes no sense as we know Tesla views the pack assembly stage as being a low value add stage by comparison with the cell mfg stage.

And the vehicle assembly lines are rather spacious. Either these vehicle production lines are going to have a lot of space around them, or the real future vehicle capacity is going to be a lot bigger.

All very curious.

An important benefit of full dry electrode would be to reduce the required footprint. Then the rest of Musk's hyperbole is about what could be done by speeding up the rest of the cell and battery manufacturing.
 
Optimus Fireman Sam (Suppression And Management) for dangerous jobs.


Actually a good use case - able to get into tight areas rather than relying on area suppression (damage) or humans (danger, smoke, by default not dressed properly).
And way better than their earlier prototypes.

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Nice reference for the Wh/kg numbers. Thank you!

Do you by chance have the volumetric energy density for the various cells? Something like Wh/Liter?

It would also be interesting to see the volumetric energy density of the cells as they are packed into the battery pack (with cooling, etc). If I recall, the original S 85 kWh pack was actually about 82 kWh total...and a few years later the 100 kWh batteries (which were actually 102 or 103?) fit in the same volume, and with better cooling. So, whatever the cell energy density improvement
was, combined with pack improvements, Tesla managed to increase the volumetric energy density of the pack by roughly 25%.

Another interesting metric is something like the area energy density at the pack level. Since the cells stand on end, just by going to longer cells (18650's at 65 mm tall ...2170's at 70 mm tall...and 4680's at 80 mm tall), they can pack more kWh into a given floor pan area of a car. A double layer battery doubles that, of course, but that's a big change in the battery pack. On the Y, I don't think the packs are notably different dimensions, so they have versions with 80mm tall cells in the same size battery pack as the 70mm tall cells. Without adjusting other variables, that length increase offers a potential for 14% more kWh. I know the current 4680 packs offer fewer kWh than the 2170 packs, but I think that's a mix of different chemistries and Tesla not stuffing the entire pack with cells when they use the 4680's (yet?).

We can calculate easily but I can't do that right now, but it doesn't change much, some manufacturers give both on the datasheet

The NCR18650-B is at 676 Wh/l, the current 2170s will be a bit more than that

And yes on the height difference, just by not having individual modules you can already fit on the same space, as evidenced with the 4680 Model Y, and it still has room to spare for at least 4 more rows of cells
 
Those of us who’ve experience with SAP all know it cannot accept anything dynamic. The hysterically laughing emoji is appropriate. Not /s but all sarcasm is reasonable fir GM’s chances.
Correct, it became a career for many with zero production output. (My opinion stems from the wife as a Master Planner, and many friends in an SAP support role making big coin yet not really "programmers"). The irony is that it's a tool to enable lean manufacturing but seems to have shifted expenses in many cases, especially with rapid design changes as you mention.

For example, GM uses SAP. Possibly for their battery ramp. :p

Worth pointing out is that Tesla does NOT use SAP. They basically made their own, and likely rewriting it now for the Mexico Factory. Wouldn't doubt it uses AI to recommend changes in production planning and supply chain.
 
OK TD Ameritrade... just before TSLA Earnings. 🤷‍♂️
Could be Schwab related and my Acct is migrating over? They had better not freeze it on me or pull any tricks!!!

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I am having some minor issues as well using TD Ameritrade's Think or Swim. My "profit" for today is still based on Friday's close.

Feel good thing to have such a large green big number 2 days in a row:).
 
Not weird at all if it's selling Chinese cars with LFP batteries to Canada so it has more US production to sell to the USA.
Yah I get that. But I know first hand some Canadians are putting their purchase on hold until they can order longer range models with white interiors etc.

In the big scheme of things Canadas tesla sales are inconsequential any way but from a Canadian point of view its sad to see more and more features, options and models dissapear. Up till now this kind of thing had little impact on tesla sales here but now that other brands will have tesla supercharger access it will cause people to look at other brands and their offerings. I’m still a Tesla nut but then again I’m not looking to replace my Tesla or buy another car.

Jmho.
 
This is rather surprising for GM, considering how they have always shown such keen acumen in selection of compelling business partners to grow their market share, like they have done with Nikola, and with Lordstown Motors.

It is difficult to imagine how they could have now made a poor choice in battery suppliers. What, with such a sterling history of analysis of partner companies and being able to determine a partner's ability to deliver on their promises prior to commitment.

After all, GM (and Mary) have led the way into the EV transition, and it matters.

/S

The Volt batteries seemed to hold up well. And I think the Spark EV (2nd gen) was fine.

Everything was going so well for LG Chem. I remember when people were pointing to all the deals they were signing as an indication they were going to take over as the biggest manufacturer from Panasonic. You can find articles in the mid-2010s saying such.

Ultium was announced in March 2020.

Then came the Kona fires, Bolt fires and now Ultium seems to be having problems ramping.

Of course, Tesla fans shouldn't get too excited. 4680 is well behind schedule as well and if they can't overcome their problems they could easily end up as a just another cell customer . But Tesla is coming at this problem from a stronger base so it has more time.
 
As demonstrated here…


Mods are probably wishing we will stop, so my last post on this.

Coming from a law enforcement family I'm well aware of this, but MOST people are not:
"Cruising" in the left lane is illegal in every state that I am aware of (i.e. maintaining a presence in the left lane when space in the right lane is open). Most LEOs just don't write tickets for it anymore.
 
Optimus Fireman Sam (Suppression And Management) for dangerous jobs.


Actually a good use case - able to get into tight areas rather than relying on area suppression (damage) or humans (danger, smoke, by default not dressed properly).
Can't wait until they introduce one or more on Chicago Fire and/or 911 just to fight BEV fires (or to replace striking actors).

/s