Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EQC_]

Tesla has access to a lot more info that I/we do, and I'm sure that if they were seeing an "epic collapse of demand" they wouldn't be submitting plans to double their factories in both Shanghai and Germany. Yes, the economy is tough right now, and yes, interest rates are too high, but I'm seeing more Teslas on the road now than ever before, and I have more friends either driving them or interested in buying one that ever before.

I don't know, man...I've seen a lot of experts in the media say that Tesla's past factory plan announcements were just part of the scam...with Tesla having little more than "potemkin villages" and "muddy fields with some digging going on." I haven't checked back on those stories, but I assume those media experts couldn't have made any misjudgements or otherwise misled their audience. Doesn't bode well for the latest round of announcements.

/s

 

[SOULPEDL]

Therefore... back in some.

 

[Singuy]

Sure, and one of my favorite phrases on this is "There are no bad products, just bad prices"

That said- there certainly WERE folks in here who kept projecting 25-30% margins uninterrupted years into the future- seemingly expecting unlimited demand WITHOUT reducing prices more than 1:1 against costs while still growing sales 50% YoY on average- and that has not turned out to be the case- so that seems like a fair criticism.

Doesn't mean you haven't got plenty of folks who go way beyond fair on the point though.

If it wasn't for raw material speculation which caused hyper inflation of certain items in 2022, Tesla was reducing cost faster than they are reducing prices vs launch.

Currently a Model 3 is 30% cheaper to produce vs 2020. If you normalize for cost, a Model 3 isn't 30% cheaper today vs launch price.

Their goal is another 50% reduction in cost on top, which does give you that feeling a 25k car would also have double digit margins with room to spare.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

If it wasn't for raw material speculation which caused hyper inflation of certain items in 2022, Tesla was reducing cost faster than they are reducing prices vs launch.

Currently a Model 3 is 30% cheaper to produce vs 2020. If you normalize for cost, a Model 3 isn't 30% cheaper today vs launch price.

Their goal is another 50% reduction in cost on top, which does give you that feeling a 25k car would also have double digit margins with room to spare.

Assuming that there aren't competing 25k cars such that the Tesla becomes a 23.5k car.

 

[hobbes]

Update of Giga Berlin production rate based on VIN analysis of registrations in Norway - fits the "approxmately 5,000/wk" that a Tesla manager told teslamag.de: Alles doppelt bei deutscher Tesla-Fabrik: Pläne für nächste Stufe mit drei Phasen veröffentlicht

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681645067302313984

 

[Singuy]

Assuming that there aren't competing 25k cars such that the Tesla becomes a 23.5k car.

So far Tesla is the one who is pricing their cars whatever they want while competitors being the ones choosing to stab themselves with even greater negative margins or not.

People seem to not understand that "racing to the bottom will damage Tesla" theory is dumb..because Tesla sets the bottom.

The Chinese are getting free R&D by stealing from Tesla everyday and so far Tesla is still the most profitable EV maker in China using the same cost labors. The masters of "racing to the bottom" Chinese are getting beat...that's just how good Tesla is at reducing cost. When the Chinese are having a hard time catching up at making things cheaper then you know Musk is onto something shorts don't seem to understand.

 

[EQC_]

Assuming that there aren't competing 25k cars such that the Tesla becomes a 23.5k car.

I can see some impact on pricing due to competition....but the thing about competing cars, at least based on the past several years, is that the other manufacturers can't (or perhaps won't) produce them in numbers to really, meaningfully, wield power relative to Tesla's sales.

The Bolt beat the Model 3 to market...but GM/Chevy only produce them at numbers that are a small fraction of Model 3 production.

I've heard good things about the Kia/Hyundai EV's...but the production numbers there are also only a small fraction of the 3 and the Y production/deliveries.

Even the non-EV Corolla...at a much lower price, and in all its world-wide hatch/sedan/hybrid/etc. trims combined...is now below the Model Y in sales, and Y sales are still clearly growing. The other manufacturers just don't target numbers the same way Tesla does.

Many manufacturers have made announcements about their future EV production goals, but have any of them claimed that they plan to sell 500,000 or 1,000,000 $30K EV's in 2025? 2026? 2027?

What do we expect of production from Tesla's Mexico factory, alone, in 2-4 years?

 

[2daMoon]

Therefore... back in some.

View attachment 957761

You sure know how to time the market, you lucky dog!

 

[MrQc]

Splurged today to celebrate my 10 years of owning TSLA (actually in May, but negotiations take time).
An offer was accepted on this beauty...
But since I am a nice guy, I splurged some more and ordered a Model Y LR with FSD for each of my sisters. Lucky, I only have two sisters .

Thank you TSLA, Tesla and TMC.
Happy Earnings everyone!

 

[scaesare]

OTOH, if there was ever a time to snare a bunch of over-zealous shorts, this could literally fry some hair.

 

[2daMoon]

They really, really don't want TSLA to close green today, do they?

Run Forrest, Run!

 

[SOULPEDL]

You sure know how to time the market, you lucky dog!

Luck?
It's not much, but made for an exciting morning. More fireworks, sparks flying, smoke everywhere, completely expected in the next few hours.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

T - 8 minutes and counting till market close. Whatever happens will not sway me to sell any TSLA shares, at least it makes for good entertainment on a Wednesday afternoon

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Splurged today to celebrate my 10 years of owning TSLA (actually in May, but negotiations take time).
An offer was accepted on this beauty...
But since I am a nice guy, I splurged some more and ordered a Model Y LR with FSD for each of my sisters. Lucky, I only have two sisters .

Thank you TSLA, Tesla and TMC.
Happy Earnings everyone!
View attachment 957776

Unless you bought that island in the background as well we're not that impressed ...

 

[gene]

This is my 44th TSLA Earnings since I bought my first shares. It's still exciting!!! Pretty much the share price almost always goes down the next day, but I'm good with it either way as I have money waiting. Best luck to all!

 

[Singuy]

Unless you bought that island in the background as well we're not that impressed ...

Damn you pooped on someone's parade and talked about buying islands. RIP earnings.

 

[RubberToe]

We are on our way in the normal earnings bungee jump. Good luck Tesla.

RT

 

[MrQc]

Damn you pooped on someone's parade and talked about buying islands. RIP earnings.

No worries, que será, será. Buy and hold (for another 10 years). Tesla is doing incredibly well, no doubts.

 

[SarahsDad]

0.91!

 

[Thumper]

https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/TSLA-Q2-2023-Update.pdf

Here we go