Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[DarthPierce]

Re: S and X demand, another factor is ridiculous trade in values.

My parents wanted to trade in their raven X on a new s plaid to take advantage of the fsd transfer, but they removed the partial (6yr?) unlimited supercharging and were only offering a trade value of 35k for their X with 44k miles. The trade value 5 months ago was 65k.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Given that Tesla doesn't plan to offer to 'unlock' battery rge in the future...

I must have missed this, what's the source? It was the first thing I thought of. I mean, why would someone buy a luxury Model $ but lower range to save 10%.

To avoid Osborning, I suspect there's a massive production migration strategy toward 4680, but I don't follow this nearly as closely as most here. I'm just taking the high level view. If they're as good as they say they are on battery day... For me, it could make or break a sale. So no matter what, we are likely missing information making my guess is as good as any. (I realize that most here don't guess, but I find it liberating.)

 

[AudubonB]

Re: S and X demand, another factor is ridiculous trade in values.

My parents wanted to trade in their raven X on a new s plaid to take advantage of the fsd transfer, but they removed the partial (6yr?) unlimited supercharging and were only offering a trade value of 35k for their X with 44k miles. The trade value 5 months ago was 65k.

A friend queried me two days ago about the shocking change in trade-in values; I told him I've not been paying attention to the changes and would have to look into it. For him, this is a BIG DEAL - if a competing ICE, PHEV or EV has a presumed lower depreciation rate, that is, on the margin, bad for Tesla demand. Now, how much of that change is the result of the changed supercharging policy I do not know, but no one, ever, on this board or elsewhere has been able to convince me Tesla is playing any more of a sophisticated pricing schedule (typically called 3D-! 4D-! 9D-chess, and other tommyrot) than are other manufacturers.

 

[navguy12]

Grain of salt till Tesla releases the weight of these...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1691266277841473536

I don’t know; I think the software lock would be a win for customers.

Being software locked just makes more battery available for top end and bottom end SOC buffers.

Thus, charge to 100% indicated SOC to your hearts content and no worries…

Unless someone here with technical expertise can correct this opinion.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I think the economy and high interest rates have a lot to do with luxury cars not selling as well as they used to, including the S & X. People are tightening belts right now and that's going to have a large impact on the auto market, particularly at the top.

 

[CHGolferJim]

A friend queried me two days ago about the shocking change in trade-in values; I told him I've not been paying attention to the changes and would have to look into it. For him, this is a BIG DEAL - if a competing ICE, PHEV or EV has a presumed lower depreciation rate, that is, on the margin, bad for Tesla demand. Now, how much of that change is the result of the changed supercharging policy I do not know, but no one, ever, on this board or elsewhere has been able to convince me Tesla is playing any more of a sophisticated pricing schedule (typically called 3D-! 4D-! 9D-chess, and other tommyrot) than are other manufacturers.

Strongly doubt this is confined to Teslas, more likely it’s a result of belt-tightening across the $80k+ price point and post-Covid liquidity effects. Is there any data by manufacturer?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Still holding out hope for the laser beam to clean the windshield!

Utrasonics would be cool too. Think scrubbing action with adjustable frequencies for different particle types.
Way off topic, but interesting story behind years of laser talks... for sure.

Also, I can't wait to learn more about my next truck!

 

[phoggy123]

I don’t know; I think the software lock would be a win for customers.

Being software locked just makes more battery available for top end and bottom end SOC buffers.

Thus, charge to 100% indicated SOC to your hearts content and no worries…

Unless someone here with technical expertise can correct this opinion.

I considered this too, that charging to 100% would be more like charging to 80% normally. Will be interesting to see what the UI recommends on these. Also howTesla convey range reduction (due to time/use) in this scenario is interesting.

I am hopeful its LFP and Sawyer is wrong, but this seems like it could be a short term solution till rates go down to increase affordability. Who knows maybe they open up the rest of the range for 10K down the road.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

As TSLA continually gets pummeled down to the support line, anyone on margin should have a contingency plan for if that uptrend support gets broken. Since earnings TSLA is down 20% while the Nasdaq is down 4.5%

My original thought leading into earnings was that unless earnings were an absolute blowout or Cybertruck was having a earlier than expected launch event, that Wall St was going to try and push TSLA (along with the macro's) down to support coincide with either Sept CPI print or Fed decision. That would have put TSLA at around 225/share for the CPI print/Fed decision in mid September.

But the rate at which Wall St is pushing TSLA down combined with negative news (price cuts and CFO leaving) is making it look like we're gonna test that uptrend line sooner than expected, around 215/share. Seeing how there's really nothing out there as a positive catalyst in the next 2-3 weeks...yeah it's a legit chance uptrend line is broken, especially if macro's correct down another 5% to test their uptrend support lines (which I do think they'll do).

Don't get me wrong, I think macro's bounce off the uptrend line, the Sept CPI number continues to come in good and the Fed doesn't hike and I think TSLA will come out fine once Highland/Cybtruck are announced and I'm bullish on Q3's earnings for multiple reasons. But until then, if that uptrend line breaks, TSLA potentially is in for another Dec/Jan moment because there's no clear support after that and we all know Wall St is gonna try and take it as low as possible.

So just a heads up for anyone on margin and/or needing cash in the next 3-4 months.

 

[phoggy123]

As TSLA continually gets pummeled down to the support line, anyone on margin should have a contingency plan for if that uptrend support gets broken. Since earnings TSLA is down 20% while the Nasdaq is down 4.5%

My original thought leading into earnings was that unless earnings were an absolute blowout or Cybertruck was having a earlier than expected launch event, that Wall St was going to try and push TSLA (along with the macro's) down to support coincide with either Sept CPI print or Fed decision. That would have put TSLA at around 225/share for the CPI print/Fed decision in mid September.

But the rate at which Wall St is pushing TSLA down combined with negative news (price cuts and CFO leaving) is making it look like we're gonna test that uptrend line sooner than expected, around 215/share. Seeing how there's really nothing out there as a positive catalyst in the next 2-3 weeks...yeah it's a legit chance uptrend line is broken, especially if macro's correct down another 5% to test their uptrend support lines (which I do think they'll do).

Don't get me wrong, I think macro's bounce off the uptrend line, the Sept CPI number continues to come in good and the Fed doesn't hike and I think TSLA will come out fine once Highland/Cybtruck are announced and I'm bullish on Q3's earnings for multiple reasons. But until then, if that uptrend line breaks, TSLA potentially is in for another Dec/Jan moment because there's no clear support after that and we all know Wall St is gonna try and take it as low as possible.

So just a heads up for anyone on margin and/or needing cash in the next 3-4 months.

I am in agreement with this. I dont see there being a real catalyst at the moment. With that said, if Tesla announces CT pricing exactly where it was 4 years ago...this thing will rocket. Nobody expects them to keep prices where they were. I also dont think Tesla will show the configurator until 2024 like they did months after with the 4680 Y.

There just isn't the retail momentum with the stock and despite our rosy hopes for future growth, FSD has limited uptake, Robotaxi has no revenue and is considered vaporware, and bot doesnt really exist....as far as Wall Street is concerned.

 

[Snerruc]

So, you're right that the refresh took much too long. I think sales are now getting very close to pre-refresh highs though, at almost 20,000 cars per quarter.

That being said, this is a bit off topic...but I'm confused about several of the other details of what you said and I was hoping for clarification.

What do you mean by "dirty wheels" on the Model S preventing you from ordering? It looks like the wheel options on the S are now both dark-ish grey -- is "dirty wheels" some sort of insulting slang you use for wheels that aren't shiny/chrome? Sorry if this is a common thing...I've just never heard it before. Or perhaps you mean something entirely different.

You also said "black trim" prevents your ordering -- I guess that would follow with my interpretation about the wheels above -- shiny/chrome is on your list of must-haves?

When you said: "combine that with pricing at over $100,000, which is overpriced" -- even before the new Standard Range, the Model S Long-Range list price starts at $88,490...so even adding in the red paint and big wheels and the white interior, it only comes to $97,990 (not "over $100,000"). Adding Autopilot or FSD options would push it over $100K...so did you mean that even with options added on, no Model S should be over $100K? Or are you looking at only the Plaid for $108,490? Not even sure what the price comparisons are for the Plaid -- the whole point of the Plaid is the performance numbers, and I'm not sure what other new car, especially a 5-seater capable of practical family use, comes close for a similar price.

Finally, you end with: "the true price of a long range in Florida is $82,000 now, a $9500 discount." I'm not sure if the Tesla website $88,490 price for the Long Range includes the Destination Charge...but even if that brings the total list price up to $90,000, then $82,000 is still only an $8000 discount. Where does your $9,500 come from?

I've got no problem with folks criticizing Tesla or having their own taste...but when the details of the complaints seem so specific, but don't seem to make sense, I need some further explanation.

Yup, slang— see the guy below me. $82,000 is stock in the inventory. The car is at the delivery center. Just drive over and pick it up.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I am in agreement with this. I dont see there being a real catalyst at the moment. With that said, if Tesla announces CT pricing exactly where it was 4 years ago...this thing will rocket. Nobody expects them to keep prices where they were. I also dont think Tesla will show the configurator until 2024 like they did months after with the 4680 Y.

There just isn't the retail momentum with the stock and despite our rosy hopes for future growth, FSD has limited uptake, Robotaxi has no revenue and is considered vaporware, and bot doesnt really exist....as far as Wall Street is concerned.

Yes, TSLA rocketing on cyber-news is exactly what would activate our Burnt Hair product.
Shortz would be in a world of hurt if Tesla so wanted. Could be the plan still.
I give it by Friday (my 3 day rule). Things could look very different.
No news on the horizon IS the sign of news forthcoming - All my opinion of course. YMMV

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I am in agreement with this. I dont see there being a real catalyst at the moment. With that said, if Tesla announces CT pricing exactly where it was 4 years ago...this thing will rocket. Nobody expects them to keep prices where they were. I also dont think Tesla will show the configurator until 2024 like they did months after with the 4680 Y.

There just isn't the retail momentum with the stock and despite our rosy hopes for future growth, FSD has limited uptake, Robotaxi has no revenue and is considered vaporware, and bot doesnt really exist....as far as Wall Street is concerned.

It's been nonstop negative catalysts since earnings and the big potential positive catalyst is clearly not happening until the end of Q3 and possibly not until Q4. That's the real issue. Which is humorous actually because Q3 so far is trending very well. Europe data, China data, etc..is beating Q2 and while there have been price cuts, they've been pretty minimal so far and very strategic (for example the China LR/P price cuts while SR Y stayed the same which means very little margin difference and if sales pick up meaningfully for LR/P, could actually help margin). Inventory levels in US/Europe are looking pretty good so there's a chance we get through the rest of Q3 with no price cuts. I've already discussed I'm bullish on Energy for Q3 thanks to Drew's comments.

But unfortunately all of those catalysts won't hit until beginning and mid Oct. If the Jan low uptrend doesn't hold, then really the only long term support level I can really find is around 120/share and another at 135/share today. Not pretty lol

 

[SOULPEDL]

It's been nonstop negative catalysts since earnings and the big potential positive catalyst is clearly not happening until the end of Q3 and possibly not until Q4. That's the real issue. Which is humorous actually because Q3 so far is trending very well. Europe data, China data, etc..is beating Q2 and while there have been price cuts, they've been pretty minimal so far and very strategic (for example the China LR/P price cuts while SR Y stayed the same which means very little margin difference and if sales pick up meaningfully for LR/P, could actually help margin). Inventory levels in US/Europe are looking pretty good so there's a chance we get through the rest of Q3 with no price cuts. I've already discussed I'm bullish on Energy for Q3 thanks to Drew's comments.

But unfortunately all of those catalysts won't hit until beginning and mid Oct. If the Jan low uptrend doesn't hold, then really the only long term support level I can really find is around 120/share and another at 135/share today. Not pretty lol

So you're saying there's no TSLA news coming for months?
It only appear this way IMO.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So you're saying there's no TSLA news coming for months?
It only appear this way IMO.

With that China Model 3 incentive, pretty much guarantees Highland isn't shown until Oct 1st. There's a legit chance we don't get Cybertruck delivery event until Q3's earnings (Oct 18th or 25th).

What other news is even a remote possibility?

More Supercharger announcement? That's already played out.
FSD license deal? That's not happening
Big Energy completion deals? Wall St ignores them

There's simply nothing out there for the next month at least. And macro's are much more likely to go down 5% than up 5% over the next month. And for TSLA specific, the narrative for the rest of this quarters is going to be the fear of more price cuts (I'm even seeing well known Tesla Twitter Bulls fear mongering right now) and negative YoY earnings.

These are simply short term musings call outs, for again, any one margin or leveraged. They need to be careful.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

But unfortunately all of those catalysts won't hit until beginning and mid Oct.

The problem with your prediction is that you are not expecting any known catalysts in the short term. But there could be unknown ones which you/we are not yet aware of.

For the exact same reason you were negative on the stock early this year. And look what happened. We went from 100 to 300 (and now 235) because of catalysts you/we didn’t know about yet.

There was, completely out of the blue, GM, Ford and other manufacturers adopting Tesla’s supercharging tech and closing deals with Tesla. There was Elon being unexpectedly positive about the Teslabot on Investor Day. There was the news that most Teslas are now eligible for the tax credit and major competitors are not.

Another (past) example of an unknown catalyst nobody some coming: the Hertz announcement. There could be more unknown catalysts like that just around the corner.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The problem with your prediction is that you are not expecting any known catalysts in the short term. But there could be unknown ones which you/we are not yet aware of.

For the same reason you were negative on the stock early this year. And look what happened? We went from 100 to 300 (and now 235) because of catalysts you/we didn’t know about yet.

There was, completely out of the blue, GM, Ford and other manufacturers adopting Tesla’s supercharging tech and closing deals with Tesla. There was Elon being unexpectedly positive about the Teslabot on Investor Day. There was the news that most Teslas are now eligible for the tax credit and major competitors are not.

Another (past) example of an unknown catalyst nobody some coming: the Hertz announcement. There could be other unknown catalysts just around the corner. We don’t know. What we’ve learned is that predicting the future, and especially the stock market, is impossible.

Banking on another surprised announcement to support the stock and/or prevent the stock from breaking down twice in the matter of 6 months is a recipe for disaster imo.

And no, I wasn't negative on the stock earlier this year and multiple times was pointing out how absurdly low the valuation had gotten and that just a bit of good news would cause the stock to recover somewhat, which did happen. The problem with surprise positive catalyst is that no one knows when they'll happen.

Again the point of my original post was for those on margin or that are leverage at the moment because we are approaching a major support level which if broken and there are no positive surprise catalysts, could easily result in TSLA back in the low 100's. I'm not saying anyone should sell there shares in hopes of buying back cheaper.

But back in Nov/Dec, there was clearly a lot of investors that were leverage on TSLA and got caught in a downward spiral. Those people were praying for a surprise positive catalyst and they didn't get one.

 

[SOULPEDL]

The problem with your prediction is that you are not expecting any known catalysts in the short term. But there could be unknown ones which you/we are not yet aware of.

For the same reason you were negative on the stock early this year. And look what happened? We went from 100 to 300 (and now 235) because of catalysts you/we didn’t know about yet.

There was, completely out of the blue, GM, Ford and other manufacturers adopting Tesla’s supercharging tech and closing deals with Tesla. There was Elon being unexpectedly positive about the Teslabot on Investor Day. There was the news that most Teslas are now eligible for the tax credit and major competitors are not.

Another (past) example of an unknown catalyst nobody some coming: the Hertz announcement. There could be other unknown catalysts just around the corner. We don’t know. What we’ve learned is that predicting the future, and especially the stock market, is impossible.

Yes, but he's thinking much like Wall Street in that there is no news and therefore it is open season on TSLA, making 215 the next step.
Which is exactly why a snare could trap the bear in very short order. Call it the calm before the storm.

If I had a chart of Tesla secrets or tech reveal frequency and strength, I would not be surprised if we are literally in a drought. The warning goes both directions, leverage not.

 

[UncaNed]

Ok at this point, I think we have to admit that the last X andS refresh was Not successful. It was months too long and sales haven‘t reached pre refresh highs. I for one would be ordering a new S about now ordinarily, but dirty wheels and black trim prevent this. Other people want different colors, etc. combine that with pricing at over $100,000, which is overpriced, in my opinion, and you have a problem. That’s why the true price of a long range in Florida is $82,000 now, a $9500 discount.

I see where you're coming from, but still feels pretty successful to this doofus every time he stomps the not-gas pedal on his Plaid X, despite it's trade-in price being down like $40,000 - $50,000. And driving around in not-quite-Self-Driving isn't quite so bad, neither.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Suncor is one of the biggest oil and gas producers in Canda. "CEO Rich Kruger, who took the reins at the Calgary-based energy giant this spring, told analysts on a conference call that the company's board of directors agrees with him that a "revised direction and tone" at the company is necessary. He said he believes Suncor has been neglecting "the business drivers of today" in pursuit of future-focused, clean and low-carbon energy pursuits.
"We have a bit of a disproportionate emphasis on the longer-term energy transition," Kruger said, adding that while these pursuits are important, they are not what is going to make money for shareholders today. Today, we win by creating value through our large integrated asset base underpinned by oilsands."

Suncor has been too focused on energy transition, must get back to fundamentals: CEO

CALGARY — The man hired to turn around the flagging fortunes of Suncor Energy Inc. said Tuesday he believes the company has been too focused in recent years on the energy transition and must get back to an oil-centred business strategy. CEO Rich Kruger, who took the reins at the Calgary-based...

ca.finance.yahoo.com

Ford CEO, Jim Farley, by pivoting their vehicles back to hybrids and reducing guidance for pure BEV production for several years, is no different. What can Suncor do today to make their investors money. What can Ford do today to make their investors money. It is not about doing the right thing. It is about the money, show me the money today, not next year, or next month, or tomorrow. Show me the money today, whatever it takes. This is why I am not invested in Suncor, nor Ford and have chosen Tesla. Investing in Tesla for a better tomorrow for all of us. I question whether many of us posting here are in TSLA only for what Tesla can give today. Is that really any better than investing in Suncor and Ford? Tesla's actions today, doing the right thing for tomorrow, will drive the share price up in the coming months and years. If other leaders in the industry that is being disrupted chose not to participate, then this only slows the transition, but it remains unmistakable that the transition to clean energy and transportation will occur nonetheless. Tesla will ensure that.