Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1692219123105738929

What be this?

Collision makes sense as a focus because people need a vehicle and insurance will pay about $40/day for rentals.

But more broadly on rental somebody mentioned that they've recently begun app support for renters (requires certain versions), which is very helpful to improve the experience. A colleague rented a Tesla in Florida a few months ago without it, so didn't get the same experience and owner would have.

 

[Mengy]

Just a heads up, 100 day moving average is 220/share...if it doesn't hold, I expect a quick drop to the 200 day which is 197/share.

TSLA continues to underperform it's beta. How many days is that since earnings? At least 90% of the days have been underperforming. Sometimes by huge amounts. Seems like today will be the day the 100 day gets tested.

It's sitting right down at a bit above $220 now. I expect we'll fall below that tomorrow if not today yet, downward pressure is just too great.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Just a heads up, 100 day moving average is 219.94/share...if it doesn't hold, I expect a quick drop to the 200 day which is 197/share.

TSLA continues to underperform it's beta. How many days is that since earnings? At least 90% of the days have been underperforming. Sometimes by huge amounts. Seems like today will be the day the 100 day gets tested.

More #'s to consider:

223.82 150ema
222.24 200ema
221.26 61.8% fib from ATH
219.94 100sma
213.77 anchored vwap from 2/17/2023
208.49 38.2% fib from 4/27/2023
207.81 50% fib from 1/6/2023 bottom
205.67 150sma
201.41 anchored vwap from 1/6/2023 bottom

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It's sitting right down at a bit above $220 now. I expect we'll fall below that tomorrow if not today yet, downward pressure is just too great.

More #'s to consider:

223.82 150ema
222.24 200ema
221.26 61.8% fib from ATH
219.94 100sma
213.77 anchored vwap from 2/17/2023
208.49 38.2% fib from 4/27/2023
207.81 50% fib from 1/6/2023 bottom
205.67 150sma
201.41 anchored vwap from 1/6/2023 bottom

The real issue is that the macro's still have more to drop till they hit their uptrend support lines. The S&P specifically still has another 5% drop to go till it reaches that uptrend line support.

TSLA's uptrend line support from it's low is around 202/share today. TSLA's 200 day moving average is 197, so close enough to that uptrend line. Just seems like hedgies are fixated on testing those levels of support. And if the S&P does drop another 5%, that overall selling pressure could be too much for the stock and it just drops straight through and then it'll go into freefall just like in Dec.

These are obviously short terms musings/observations obviously, They won't determine much of anything past 6 months from now. But if the uptrend line from the low back in Jan doesn't hold and it freefalls down to stay 125-150/share, it resets the uptrend line and at least for the short to intermediate window, is very bearish for the stock and makes any quick recovery into the 200's a very slow process.

I do think the macro's will hit their uptrend line support and bounce, I'm not bearish on the macro's in the next 6-12 months. I do not think a crash is coming and I think the Sept CPI number comes in good, yet again. It's just a question of for TSLA specifically, can it hang onto the support levels till a positive catalyst comes. I'm very bullish in on Q3 and Highland/Cybertruck being positive catalysts. It's just gonna suck big time if those act as catalyst....from 150/share instead of 220-250/share.

 

[bkp_duke]

There is a looming UAW strike in the next 30 days if an agreement with the "big 3" is not reached.

Do we think something like this will help Tesla and TSLA? Or drag them down along with everyone else?

 

[2daMoon]

There is a looming UAW strike in the next 30 days if an agreement with the "big 3" is not reached.

Do we think something like this will help Tesla and TSLA? Or drag them down along with everyone else?

Of course it will drag Tesla down.

It's just another car company.

/s

 

[Mengy]

There is a looming UAW strike in the next 30 days if an agreement with the "big 3" is not reached.

Do we think something like this will help Tesla and TSLA? Or drag them down along with everyone else?

A strike would certainly help Tesla the company, but it would likely hurt TSLA the stock because "it's an auto stock". Doesn't make sense, but I think that's how it would play out.

 

[Usain]

A strike would certainly help Tesla the company, but it would likely hurt TSLA the stock because "it's an auto stock". Doesn't make sense, but I think that's how it would play out.

I don't think it will hurt or help Tesla stock much at all unless the strike goes on for a very long time to the point that we see a shortage of supply in the auto market. If that happens, non-union automakers come into focus and Tesla maybe gets a small boost.

If a shortage got really bad, Tesla might have to raise prices, which would definitely give TSLA a boost. But I think that scenario is very unlikely.

 

[insaneoctane]

I'm thinking of putting in an order for $199 based off what I'm seeing. Unfortunately.

 

[GhostSkater]

Just a heads up, 100 day moving average is 219.94/share...if it doesn't hold, I expect a quick drop to the 200 day which is 197/share.

TSLA continues to underperform it's beta. How many days is that since earnings? At least 90% of the days have been underperforming. Sometimes by huge amounts. Seems like today will be the day the 100 day gets tested.

I might get rocks thrown at me for saying this, but I hope there is another big dip

Been saving money for some stuff and a big move for over a year, and now since macro is what it is, has a less than 5% chance of happening, so if there is another big dip will be really hard to not to take almost all and buy more, just a small part that will use for a trip somewhere that I promised my mother I would take her long ago

 

[jerry33]

Yeah the Texas dynamic gets blown out of proportion. It's a bit inconvenient sure, but it's not that bad. You just have to order online, you can't walk into a Tesla store and order directly through them.

You can take delivery in Texas. I was just in Dallas 2 weeks ago and the drive from Love field to downtown takes you right by a Tesla delivery center with many Tesla's in the lot being delivered.

Right. It's a pain for Tesla, but for the consumer the only pain points are going to the tax office to pay the sales tax and the $400 punishment fee for purchasing a BEV. Dealers love this because they can use the $400 punishment as a way to avoid selling their brand's BEV and getting the consumer hooked on another gas car.

 

[willow_hiller]

First, 6 Cybertrucks spotted heading towards Ohio (likely for crash testing at TRC Ohio), and now an additional 9 Cybertrucks spotted offloading at Fremont.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1692271464387588275

Internal testing, maybe?

 

[GOVA]

Me thinks those CTs are going as display units to Tesla Stores across the US of A. It will bring more crowds in and mob will be able to see it in person, it - the actual production model.

I did tell what SA told me in store about 2 months ago. It is about the time to show them to the masses.

Now, what if first 1000 ordered ones are free? Hope I am 666 in the queue.

 

[Motor Mouth]

Now, what if first 1000 ordered ones are free? Hope I am 666 in the queue.

As a shareholder, I say NO. (Even though my order is pretty early too...)

 

[mongo]

First, 6 Cybertrucks spotted heading towards Ohio (likely for crash testing at TRC Ohio), and now an additional 9 Cybertrucks spotted offloading at Fremont.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1692271464387588275

Internal testing, maybe?

Yeah, software development, me thinks.
And possibly durability.

 

[15Peter20]

Me thinks those CTs are going as display units to Tesla Stores across the US of A. It will bring more crowds in and mob will be able to see it in person, it - the actual production model.

I did tell what SA told me in store about 2 months ago. It is about the time to show them to the masses.

Now, what if first 1000 ordered ones are free? Hope I am 666 in the queue.

Why? No demand?

 

[GhostSkater]

Me thinks those CTs are going as display units to Tesla Stores across the US of A. It will bring more crowds in and mob will be able to see it in person, it - the actual production model.

I did tell what SA told me in store about 2 months ago. It is about the time to show them to the masses.

Now, what if first 1000 ordered ones are free? Hope I am 666 in the queue.

Makes sense, we love it, but we see so many people saying they hate it

But those who see it in person, always say it's a totally different beast IRL and that pictures doesn't do justice

So having it in every service center, or at least the bigger ones might be a nice move

 

[GOVA]

As a shareholder, I say NO. (Even though my order is pretty early too...)

Why? No demand?

To show that those first who believed in CT and ordered right away made a good choice. Easy.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

To show that those first who believed in CT and ordered right away made a good choice. Easy.

As much as we all love Tesla and $TSLA, they are not a charity!
Hope this macro passes soon, so that we can achieve a new ATH by EOY (Wishful thinking i know)

 

[Gigapress]

I agree that most analysts are under-estimating the effect of the IRA on Tesla. Tesla is ramping EVs and Megapacks and battery packs and battery cells at an astonishing rate. No company will benefit from the IRA more than Tesla. Nobody else will even be close.

$45/kWh plus 10% of cost for certain input minerals. Tesla aiming for ~1TWh run rate in US by 2030. It's simple math...Tesla's total IRA subsidies at the scale they have targeted would peak at about $50B per year in 2030 before sunsetting begins just for the batteries, not counting the vehicle tax credits, solar, green hydrogen, etc.

There are only 12 companies in the world right now with $50B+ TTM net income. As far as I'm aware, no other company in history has benefitted from this much direct government financial support.

This leads me to believe that any honest analysts either think Tesla won't get anywhere close to that scale so quickly or anticipate that the credits will get cancelled or reduced in a few years.