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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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As it happens, I managed to do this *twice* this calendar year, on separate vehicles. :(

Investor TLDR: A simple confirmation screen would go a long way towards making this function like virtually all other online "Pay" buttons and avoid such issues, but Tesla appears to build their systems with the mindset of "Let's make this super easy assuming everyone does the 'typical' thing (small downpayment with loan) and not bother implementing management tools for the team to use in the less-typical cases."


It's not just your credit union, it's that these are a small enough percentage of Tesla's sales that Tesla does not invest in the experience (or in management tools for this experience).

Issue #1 is that they no longer allow manually entering in checking account information, at least not in the US....everything must be entered via providing one's bank login credentials to PLAID. For security reasons, I generally refuse to do any such thing...but for Tesla, on a prior purchase, I had relented and allowed it to access a minor account at a bank I had previously used primarily but lately do little business with, with a changed password just for it, etc. The first time I made this error I was in the Tesla delivery center, showing the delivery center person that it did not allow entering in a routing / account number manually, and accidentally tapped "Pay".

Issue #2 is that unfortunately, the delivery center person checked and they CANNOT cancel it on the back-end, and it was now showing 'Paid in full' for him. Everything got gummed up from there, as he stated he could not take any other payment to finish processing delivery until the PLAID payment officially failed. It took days before the delivery center reached back out and gave me wire transfer information to complete the transaction.

Issue #3 is that when sending in a wire transfer, Tesla's website notes to include the RN# with the wire transfer. With Fidelity, that actually cannot be done - there isn't an editable memo field. Tesla was, however, able to match it up quickly from the wire transfer confirmation number.

Issue #4 is that when pivoting from Car A to Car B in the order-and-delivery process, I was initially told that the original wire transfer funds could not be transferred from A to B, so to simply wire the funds for B while cancelling A would be processed over the next few days. With a cap on the amount of a single wire transfer via Fidelity's website, this would have to be broken into two.

Issue #5 is that while switching between the Tesla app (to check the amount) and Fidelity's wire transfer screen, I accidentally hit "Pay" on Car B. <sigh> This time, the bank actually reached out to me to say they were simply covering it as a courtesy (and, I assume, to encourage me to return to using them more extensively), but I assured them there was no need, so they canceled the temporary approval they'd given to PLAID. However, see Issue #1 for how long things take...

Issue #6 is that after sending the first wire transfer for B, even before waiting for #5 to be resolved, the app refresh didn't show the payment, and when provided the wire transfer confirmation #, the Tesla rep identified that it had been errantly credited towards A, even though A had already been paid for in full. At this point, he was able to get someone on the phone who was able to move the new wire transfer to B *and* was going to work on moving the original wire transfer over to B as well, and would credit back the leftover once the two wire transfers were both applied to B (as opposed to me sending a third wire transfer for the remainder of B, and getting a refund of the full amount of the original wire transfer for A).
Issue #7 is that some weeks later Tesla's collections team reached out to me, because I was happily driving around in my new X but their screen showed it not paid for. After walking her thru the process and her seeing that, yes, in fact I had far OVERPAID, the woman was incredibly polite and apologetic for having reached out, and promised to resolve it and get me my refund ASAP. I followed up with her repeatedly over the next few weeks, and the timeline for receiving the refund has continued to stretch out. Most recently she stated that it would be a paper check but could take up to 8 weeks before that gets printed (we are almost at that point). I did enquire if she could simply have those funds credited towards the solar panels I am guiding my sister thru purchasing, but she stated that no, she could not transfer the excess funds from automotive to energy, although if I were to buy yet another vehicle she could get that transfer done. Having typed all this up, I suppose I should reach back out to her for another status update...
Thanks for breaking it down. You'd think more people in this market segment would be paying cash, but that's a whole different subject.
I have to say if Tesla does have any shortfall of willing buyers what it takes to navigate the digital buying experience could use further introspection, particularly if the goal is to broaden the pool beyond the existing fan base. Say what you will about the dealership model, while they may be screwing you at least they talk you through the process.
 
So you're saying you like to get screwed twice: Price + wasting 5 hours out of your day with paint protection upsells, paperwork + haggling.

Got it!
No, I hate all that. But I see a lot of people around me with plenty of money who are simply used to going somewhere, sitting in the car, taking a test drive, and then being shepherded through the process. I know that's totally anecdotal, but it feels like it's a big chunk of addressable market. Tesla stores can address that but they are few and far between.
As an investor I have to trust that Tesla has got this all figured out, but still I wonder. One thing for sure the referral thing doesn't work in my sphere of friends and neighbors.
 
No, I hate all that. But I see a lot of people around me with plenty of money who are simply used to going somewhere, sitting in the car, taking a test drive, and then being shepherded through the process. I know that's totally anecdotal, but it feels like it's a big chunk of addressable market. Tesla stores can address that but they are few and far between.
As an investor I have to trust that Tesla has got this all figured out, but still I wonder. One thing for sure the referral thing doesn't work in my sphere of friends and neighbors.
As the saying goes "You can only lead a horse to water." Maybe you need some new friends and might even consider moving... j/k of course:)
 
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As the saying goes "You can only lead a horse to water." Maybe you need some new friends and might even consider moving... j/k of course:)
I have a lot of really nice neighbors and they are actually pretty smart but they certainly aren't Tesla fanbois. We tend to put an outsized level of importance on all this in our psyche while they are busy with whatever is going on in their lives. Honestly I can't make a case to them that they need to run out and trade in their current cars on Teslas and it's really none of my business. Any influencing we do has got to be leading by example. When they are ready to replace a vehicle though it would be good for Tesla to be implanted in whatever mental processes drive their buying decisions. They aren't going to think about going to Tesla.com on their own.
None of this matters as long as Tesla is selling everything they can without my neighbors. It just feels like the pool of enthusiasts is getting depleted and a wider net needs to be cast.
 
1. Directionally I think those of us (you, me, etc) that come at the data objectively, reach similar conclusions, i.e. this transfer is happening very fast and will be largely over by 2030. Details aren't really the point given the immensity of that conclusion. In their inner hearts, everyone that matters in auto industry gets this (and in fossil fuels). Those that don't get this will get culled. Some do get this but have failed to act in time - they too will get culled, but for the time being they are the loudest in spewing FUD in an attempt to buy themselves more time and a better golden parachute.

2. There are good reasons why the auto-industry will restructure itself to deliver such a fast transfer in an endogenous manner, in a way that is now nigh-on unstoppable. However there is an additional exogenous reason that doesn't often get touched on, namely the absence of a reason to slow down as the end-of-the-S-curve draws nigh, near 2030. Ordinarily in an industry we would expect some slowdown as everyone worries about stranded capital invested into overcapacity. Ordinarily everyone gets their bet slightly wrong and industries do end up with some overcapacity and a subsequent glut, crash, etc; but nonetheless there does tend to be a degree of slowdown towards the cycle end. However in the case of auto the key limiting factor will of course be batteries, and the stationary storage sector will absorb every excess battery that is reasonably priced through until 2040. In other words there is little-or-no penalty from investing in additional cell capacity in the ~2030 period, provided one of course invests in dual-use (stationary/mobile) cell types such as modern LFP. That in turn means the cell constraint will experience no slowdown effect as we near 2030, quite the reverse. I have previously shown these two graphs that illustrate this:
View attachment 971128
However this graph below gives perhaps a better insight into the industrial dynamic at play. It shows how much additional battery manufacturing capacity I expect to come onstream each year, and which sector will be the primary taker of that capacity. These numbers were developed prior to the recent Shanghai Metals Market data that showed stationary to be running 3-5 years ahead of where I had thought they were (as the stationary data sources I had aggregated were - it seems - misleadingly low*), but nonetheless the point is clear : for the next 15-20 years there is little or no penalty (risk) if one does over-investment in competitive cell manufacturing capacity or its precursors.

View attachment 971129

(* I am still wondering what to do with that SMM data point for H1 2023. I wrote to SMM to ask for previous years/etc data in an effort to assure myself that the data was reliable, but I have received no response. I'd very much like to see some more data points before I accept it as credible. This stuff matters - for example I think that everyone has their learning curves out by a certain (somewhat material) amount as they have not correctly tracked historical cell volumes used in the mobility market. That is why I ran my own calcs, but (unsuprisingly, albeit regrettably) I got a very sniffy response from academia when I made that point and offered to share data on a quid pro quo basis. The error term will be larger if the SMM data is to be believed, as it means the stationary new-cell market has been of a material size for longer than has been previously thought, and so should also be included in aggregate learning curve calculations. Actual cell quantities used in stationary desperately need good global data in the open domain.)

3. I have seen no single open source EV reference. I have myself painfully put together the following table which goes back to 2000 which you (or anyone else) is welcome to use, but please cite me as a reference/source if it is used, so at least I can detect instances of circular data out there and not get confused by seeing my own unsigned reflection. (I am now sadly used to seeing the commercial report writers lifting me). There are some hidden lines in the table but those are really just arithmetic, let me know if you need anything vital. Everything in this flows from other point-sources one way or another. Inevitably there are some inconsistencies because of definitional/timing/etc issues but I do not think they are material. Here is the data from 2010-onwards. Let me know if you see any errors so I can fix them.

View attachment 971126

4. Are you actually using any modelling 'theory' to underpin your forecast, or are you just eyeballing it ? I have done both over the years, and the case of BEV adoption I am now tending to think that the match for S-curve models is sufficiently strong as to make them useful.

5. I have an open mind as to whether a "valley of death" will open up by way of premature reduction in ICE volumes. The OICA data for 2022 was essentially stable vs 2021, and I hear various snippets that suggest ICE volumes are growing in 2023.
Excellent. Thank you.

The total manufacturing capacity may not taper as sharply as shown in the third graph in section 2 if you include humanoid and other robots and if you include storage for off-Earth use.
 
No, I hate all that. But I see a lot of people around me with plenty of money who are simply used to going somewhere, sitting in the car, taking a test drive, and then being shepherded through the process. I know that's totally anecdotal, but it feels like it's a big chunk of addressable market. Tesla stores can address that but they are few and far between.
As an investor I have to trust that Tesla has got this all figured out, but still I wonder. One thing for sure the referral thing doesn't work in my sphere of friends and neighbors.

I take it you don't own a Tesla yourself? Because it doesn't sound like you've experienced the "buying process" firsthand. For those of us who have, at least most of us, it's been incredibly more pleasant than any "normal" dealer experience has ever been.

It's one of Tesla's many strengths IMHO.
 
I have a lot of really nice neighbors and they are actually pretty smart but they certainly aren't Tesla fanbois. We tend to put an outsized level of importance on all this in our psyche while they are busy with whatever is going on in their lives. Honestly I can't make a case to them that they need to run out and trade in their current cars on Teslas and it's really none of my business. Any influencing we do has got to be leading by example. When they are ready to replace a vehicle though it would be good for Tesla to be implanted in whatever mental processes drive their buying decisions. They aren't going to think about going to Tesla.com on their own.
None of this matters as long as Tesla is selling everything they can without my neighbors. It just feels like the pool of enthusiasts is getting depleted and a wider net needs to be cast.
This will happen eventually, CT is the ultimate 'free' advertising tool for Tesla IMO.
 
The 32k Model Y number for Europe in Q3 might not be complete. Did all countries report? Was Turkey (sorry, official name now Türkiye) included? A lot of Model Ys are going in that direction.
Exactly. If the rumoured 3000 Model Y for Turkey in August are correct, that's another 750/week for Germany. Not sure about Israel, Taiwan & other countries that may or may not be supplied from Berlin.
 
Such as?

Easy to floss out slogans. What Chinese brands and models did Tesla take apart?
Did any of that cause highland upgrade and why?

Elon stated on a Conference Call years ago that Tesla doesn't really study what other car makers are building. Why would they? So they can learn agile software (like duh big boise)? :p

“Tesla, born in Silicon Valley, never outsourced their software — they write their own code,” said Morris Cohen, a professor emeritus at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania who specializes in manufacturing and logistics. “They rewrote the software so they could replace chips in short supply with chips not in short supply. The other carmakers were not able to do that.”​
“Tesla controlled its destiny,” Professor Cohen added.​

FYI (if you aren't already aware), Elon is a graduate of said Wharton School of Business. :D

Cheers to the Longs!
 
I take it you don't own a Tesla yourself? Because it doesn't sound like you've experienced the "buying process" firsthand. For those of us who have, at least most of us, it's been incredibly more pleasant than any "normal" dealer experience has ever been.

It's one of Tesla's many strengths IMHO.
We are on our second Tesla and a good portion of immediate family has them. I totally agree the on line process is preferable to being "put in the box" but there are glitches and someone less tech savvy or dedicated could struggle... or simply be trepidatious about engaging with it in the first place.
 
Such as?

Easy to floss out slogans. What Chinese brands and models did Tesla take apart?
Did any of that cause highland upgrade and why?

Tesla could have benchmarked or taken apart any car in the M3 market or above, EV, ICE, China, American or European made. Or do we think Tesla worked on NVH only because of customer surveys, or did an Tesla engineer get up one day on the way the work, and wondered why the tire noise is loud? How did Tesla know it needed to upgrade its interior? What did Tesla compare the old interior too? Oops, I forgot my slogan, "All the above is a cost cutting exercise".

I guess Tesla buys competition tear down reports from their good friend Munro, because Tesla is above that sort of industry norm. Fine, lets agree to disagree,
 
I've seen that kind of thing backfire.
"Have you thought about a Tesla?"
"Those ugly silver things? No way I'd ever have one of those"
That's not a backfire - that's the point. As polarizing as it may be, that person wasn't going to buy a CT anyway. But, that same person looking at a Plaid S and realizing it's also a Tesla may consider it. Your example suggests that someone would only know what a Tesla is after they see a CT. I don't think that person exists. My 81 yo father can't wait to look at one when they come out. He has no time for my M3. Anyway, you either believe that a high profile product is a positive or you don't. I guess we may disagree about this one.