Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

Was there any sort of X-axis with this plot?

Lol, here's the latest. Still 250 focused.

 

[GOVA]

^ I didn't realize one needs an invite to show their product.

Now, most here know that, it has been Tesla and then nothing else really. If they don't stick with Tesla, what are they going to show eventually? GM battery box?

 

[petit_bateau]

They'll have to update the line in Fremont first. Haven't seen any evidence of that. I expect Fremont will take 2-3 times longer than Shanghai to spin up.

Is it possible that they would build a new (i.e. Highland-spec) Model 3 line in Austin, then divert the cells to Austin.

The Fremont workforce could get added to Y and X/S shifts in Fremont. (Is there spare capacity for that to be absorbed?)

Then rip the existing Fremont 3 line out, rebuild completely and tidy things up a lot. Then restart (either as 3 or Y) by which time sufficient additional cell capacity would have become available.

Just a thought ?

==============

Do we yet know what is beneath the cosmetics in the Highland. Clearly we now know it is not a hatch (much regret) but has it gone to full castings ? What about 48V ? Networked stuff ? Anything else ?

 

[petit_bateau]

Wow, Q3 should be pretty good:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1699422167107006590

"Starting from September 11th, the daily production capacity of the new Model 3 has reached 1200 units."

That would correspond to 109,500 per quarter if there was no additional downtime factored in. So that would be about 25,000 extra per quarter. Do we know if the 3 line is still ramping ? Is it cell-supply constrained .... ?

 

[SOULPEDL]

If you are waiting for a 'good price' to load up on shares, don't wait too long.

I was getting used to the guaranteed volatility. So that's over now? /s

 

[FreqFlyer]

Same reason why Tesla ignored all these car shows till now and did not lose out on anything.

Just like car reviews by professionals from trade mags and media are all so 90s and Tesla shuns them, so are car shows. Car shows don't give the user the benefit of getting behind the wheel and seeing what the hoopla is all about. Cars in these shows serve mostly as eye candy and not sure Tesla is best displayed as one of the candies among many. They serve as a platform for paid fake media to write (aka gush) about your products. Tesla doesn't need all that. Media talks about Tesla all the time and the media FUD isn't going to change just by participating in these events.

Tesla is different. Tesla doesn't have to join the sheep.

Things change. What you are describing is 5 years ago. Tesla is mainstream now. Tesla has alot more production capacity and a bunch more to come online. That product has to go somewhere. And just word of mouth only along is not going to move product in numbers needed.

Look at the Highland M3 launch, Tesla gave the car to three different car journalists, one and EV guy and the other two mainstream car guys. Motor Trend in this country routinely get Tesla "press" cars to drive. Motor Trend got the inside scoop and drive of the last Model S Refresh. Like I stated in another thread, the attention from Munich is off the charts, with free pub. By the way, Tesla been doing car shows in China for a while.

As more and more players into the EV market, Tesla needs the remind the market who was here first and why they are the 900 lbs Gorrilla.

Where else could this happen but at a car show.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1699476029394317597

 

[SOULPEDL]

^ I didn't realize one needs an invite to show their product.

Now, most here know that, it has been Tesla and then nothing else really. If they don't stick with Tesla, what are they going to show eventually? GM battery box?

O... K... I assumed they needed to be allowed to attend. Maybe not invited, but not denied at least.

"The Detroit Auto Dealers Association organizes the Detroit Auto Show. "

See the conflict?

 

[bkp_duke]

Is it possible that they would build a new (i.e. Highland-spec) Model 3 line in Austin, then divert the cells to Austin.

The Fremont workforce could get added to Y and X/S shifts in Fremont. (Is there spare capacity for that to be absorbed?)

Then rip the existing Fremont 3 line out, rebuild completely and tidy things up a lot. Then restart (either as 3 or Y) by which time sufficient additional cell capacity would have become available.

Just a thought ?

==============

Do we yet know what is beneath the cosmetics in the Highland. Clearly we now know it is not a hatch (much regret) but has it gone to full castings ? What about 48V ? Networked stuff ? Anything else ?

Fremont is already being retrofitted for Highland. ETA for production is Q1 2024.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1698788724455424123

This aligns correctly with both the major construction permitting changes we have seen for Fremont, as well as the new construction seen on drones (possibly a large pad for more gigapresses, but that's not confirmed).

 

[GOVA]

O... K... I assumed they needed to be allowed to attend. Maybe not invited, but not denied at least.

"The Detroit Auto Dealers Association organizes the Detroit Auto Show. "

See the conflict?

Who knows such stuff? Overall, I think, they realized "you can't beat them, join them" kind of idea.

 

[2daMoon]

O... K... I assumed they needed to be allowed to attend. Maybe not invited, but not denied at least.

"The Detroit Auto Dealers Association organizes the Detroit Auto Show. "

See the conflict?

Well, the show itself will allow them... if they can get the Teslas past the checkpoints on major roads into Detroit that will be set up by the UAW and the Michigan branch of the National Guard.

Maybe if they use a Diesel semi to pull the show trailer(s) and put "sausage" for contents on the shipping manifest?

/S

 

[Krugerrand]

O... K... I assumed they needed to be allowed to attend. Maybe not invited, but not denied at least.

"The Detroit Auto Dealers Association organizes the Detroit Auto Show. "

See the conflict?

I believe you are right. Initially, Tesla was not legally allowed to attend any car shows in the state of Michigan. Something has since changed.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I believe you are right. Initially, Tesla was not legally allowed to attend any car shows in the state of Michigan. Something has since changed.

Tesla bought a tooling and die company in Grand Rapids, Michigan in 2015 and still operates there.

 

[Usain]

Further, there is no operational definition of a "real" FSD disengagement. Users often turn off FSD accidentally by tugging the steering wheel too hard, or on purpose when they decide to change navigation mid-trip.

These non-driving / control disengagements make for much noisier data than what shadow mode provides just by comparing its intent to the driver's actions. Tesla will run FSD in shadow mode on all HDW 4 cars until they have enough training data collected to catch up with the performance of FSD on HDW3 cars.

Tesla's Director of Autopilot software Ashok Elluswamy said during his FSD ride-along with Elon on Aug 25 that FSD v12 will go out to Users in shadow mode in a few weeks.

Once you get used to FSD, accidental disengagement becomes rare.

Shadow mode can tell you if the driver did something different from what FSD would have done. But disengagement tells you that the driver took over for some reason. The system should be approaching the point where users hardly ever feel the need to take over.

I believe I remember Tesla saying that they do track miles per disengagement. This would be an important metric to gauge progress. And they would want to see if this number looks better or worse depending on HW3 or HW4.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Once you get used to FSD, accidental disengagement becomes rare.

Shadow mode can tell you if the driver did something different from what FSD would have done. But disengagement tells you that the driver took over for some reason. The system should be approaching the point where users hardly ever feel the need to take over.

I believe I remember Tesla saying that they do track miles per disengagement. This would be an important metric to gauge progress. And they would want to see if this number looks better or worse depending on HW3 or HW4.

We're getting far afield from the original point, which is that all HDW4 cars will be collecting data for FSD training, not just the ones with paid FSD. Tesla's ability to 'query-the-fleet' by broadcasting requests for video clips which match certain situations will vastly improve the quality of clips collected, and accelerate the march of nines. That's why Tesla plans to have v12 shadow mode running in customer cars in a few weeks.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I believe you are right. Initially, Tesla was not legally allowed to attend any car shows in the state of Michigan. Something has since changed.

I didn't know about their ridiculous law, lol. I only thought this was odd because it is put on by the Auto Dealers. It's the Detroit Auto Dealers Association who puts it on. Why would the Auto Dealers want Tesla at the show?

Here's a thought: It brings a lot of wallets to the city and Tesla will be the main attraction. They might even get close to 1M people to attend this one (with Tesla). It's not in any stories that I read though - No mention of Tesla (except Teslarati). Some mention of EVs in general is all I see.

"In 2019, the estimated impact of the show was $430 million and organizers said it drew nearly 775,000 people."

 

[UkNorthampton]

Changes to Texas (capacity expansion speculated by Joe Tegtmeyer). Production (Cybertruck & Y) seems to be paused as lots of Tesla Automation* kit is being installed.

*Grohmann - Germany

About 3 mins in for overview
8 minutes for detail
14 minutes outbound car parking (near empty)
21 minutes staff car parks less full than usual
24 minutes Megapacks & electrical gubbins
27 minutes new roof vents

 

[SOULPEDL]

Changes to Texas. Production (Cybertruck & Y) seems to be paused as lots of Tesla Automation* kit is being installed.

*Grohmann - Germany

About 3 mins in for overview
8 minutes for detail

So Troy's numbers are reflecting these shutdowns, no? Or do we think China is making up for it?
It adds to the Earnings Call suspense.

 

[Krugerrand]

Tesla bought a tooling and die company in Grand Rapids, Michigan in 2015 and still operates there.

Yes. But what’s that got to do with the fact they weren’t allowed to participate in any Michigan car shows? Last I recall they weren’t allowed in 2015, 2016, 2017 etc…

 

[SO16]

Yes. But what’s that got to do with the fact they weren’t allowed to participate in any Michigan car shows? Last I recall they weren’t allowed in 2015, 2016, 2017 etc…

At the time, I think it was more of a protest to not go to the auto show due to direct sales ban. Fortunately since then Tesla can now have sales/service centers in MI.

Tesla confirmed it skipped the Detroit auto show because of Michigan's direct sales law

Even though Tesla is not officially attending the Detroit auto show this week, the company managed to use the event...

electrek.co

 

[Krugerrand]

I didn't know about their ridiculous law, lol. I only thought this was odd because it is put on by the Auto Dealers. It's the Detroit Auto Dealers Association who puts it on. Why would the Auto Dealers want Tesla at the show?

Here's a thought: It brings a lot of wallets to the city and Tesla will be the main attraction. They might even get close to 1M people to attend this one (with Tesla). It's not in any stories that I read though - No mention of Tesla (except Teslarati). Some mention of EVs in general is all I see.

"In 2019, the estimated impact of the show was $430 million and organizers said it drew nearly 775,000 people."

Yes, entirely not allowed by law. Not sure when the rules changed. Didn’t Tesla have a lawsuit going in that state? I haven’t been keeping up to date on all the state issues since it no longer became a question of Tesla succeeding.