No regression would happen if you do it right. FSD can be trained to treat red lights just as a human would in any situation. This includes the edge cases. You just need access to millions of hours of video to find the examples of the edge cases. I wonder if there is a company who has that kind of access?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
That's 2 out of four wheels.
Luggage and dashboard show neither wheel is centered.
I think the main issue with end to end is you really have no idea if fixing one issue has caused another. This feedback is incredibly important and only Tesla can sniff them out with the fleet. End to end is impossible for companies without the billions of miles combing through every inch of earth and scenario.
Well, you can test against all your training, verification, and simulation augmented data; but, yeah, reality is the true test. That's why they need a lot of miles on the specific release candidate verdion of software to validate, not just a lot of miles on a lot of versions. Another reason a large fleet is helpful.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
I think I counted five examples in that video of it taking right angle turns, and in every one of them, regardless of that counter-steering, the CT turned into - far into - the outside lane. That is an illegal - 'tho probably very rarely cited - turn in most states I've lived in. It seemed not to be negotiating those turns any better than my far longer-wheelbased crewcab-longbed pickups.Great footage of a Cybertruck in the wild. Best demonstration I've seen of the four-wheel steering and how nimble it makes the truck. The way it moves is uncanny.
We're going to need to see real-life truck to truck maneuver comparisons.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Model 2/Robotaxi (and where to build them) is a large topic, and deserves much more analysis. Quoting his recent Exclusive excerpt from Walter Isaacson's latest book: "Elon Musk"
"in May 2023, Elon decided to change the initial build location for the next-generation cars and Robotaxis to Austin"
So we've only learned this in the past few days, but let's go back to the discussion that was circulating during the first week of June, 2023:
Tesla Giga Texas May Be Completing Construction of Additional Production Line, Possibly for Model 3 | Tesmanian Blog (Jun 09, 2023)
"Tesla may be completing two additional production lines at Giga Texas. While one of them is for Cybertruck, the other one is possibly being built for Model 3."
As I mentioned upthread, the buildout of more Model 3 production capacity seemed unlikely at the time due to the likely terminal demand at the $35K starting price-point. It seems that this Model 3 rumor was a red herring.
Going back a little further to Jan 23, 2023, Tesla Chief Designer Franz Von Holzhausen appeared in a "Ride The Lightning" interview saying that he was 'chomping at the bit' to talk about the new car' but couldn't talk about it yet:
Episode 389: Special Guest Franz von Holzhausen Talks Cybertruck, Roadster, and More! (cued to the where Franz talks about the MiC "Model 2")
Franz was also interviewed by Motortrend on Mar 31, 2023:
Design work for Gen3 Compact Car/Robotaxi was already well along by end of Q1 2023, which lends credence to Isaacson's notion that in springtime Tesla leadership was holding meetings with Elon to convince him to build both cars on the same production line.
In May, Elon seems to have agreed by deciding to build Gen3 first at Giga Texas. Let's look back at some cryptic comments made by Joe Tegtmeyer shortly thereafter:
" / Twitter
" / TwitterOverall, what can we learn from this episode, and how to we go forward?
- First and foremost, it takes MONTHS or possibly YEARS for decisions to be finalized
- Also, Retail investors don't neccessarily find out for MONTHS what was actually decided, then only by speculation and analysis (always obfuscated by the MSM)
- At the end of the day, decisions are always about how to advance the MISSION
- Tesla's mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.
Here is Elon's direct answer on this last question from the Tesla 2023 Investor Day Q&A Session: (which we soundly ignored)
"Tesla Investor Day 2023 Q&A | "Next Gen Car 3 questions" | Tesla (March 01, 2023)
Chris ???: "I have a few follow ups on the Next Gen vehicle. First, when do you think we'll get a look at it, maybe a prototype? Second, are there any detail you can share in terms of the size, the content, the performance. Third, I think you mentioned that you would produce it in other plants in addition to Mexico, should we take that to mean you can launch it at an existing plant before you're finished constructing the new plant in Mexico?"
Elon Musk: "I think we'll probably have to decline that answer. We will have a proper sort of Product Event but we would be jumping the gun if we answer your questions. Maybe another question if there's..."
Lol, sometimes the answer is 'not yet, be patient'. As always, investing comes down to a simple choice: Do you trust Management? If yes, then stay invested. And possibly, sprinkle a bit more salt on 3rd-Party opinions going forward.
Cheers to the Longs!
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
The difficulty in seeing long distances - is that mist, wildfire smoke, sandstorm or pollution?Great footage of a Cybertruck in the wild. Best demonstration I've seen of the four-wheel steering and how nimble it makes the truck. The way it moves is uncanny.
Great summary. Presumably this also means that Tesla could start deliveries of the M2 whenever they want, possibly as early as next year if they are putting in a production line now. True mass production might have to wait until GigaMexico is up and running but if they're putting in trial lines now there's no need to wait until 2025 to start shipping - particularly if this is an LFP pack which is less cell constrained.Model 2/Robotaxi (and where to build them) is a large topic, and deserves much more analysis. Quoting his recent Exclusive excerpt from Walter Isaacson's latest book: "Elon Musk"
"in May 2023, Elon decided to change the initial build location for the next-generation cars and Robotaxis to Austin"
So we've only learned this in the past few days, but let's go back to the discussion that was circulating during the first week of June, 2023:
Tesla Giga Texas May Be Completing Construction of Additional Production Line, Possibly for Model 3 | Tesmanian Blog (Jun 09, 2023)
"Tesla may be completing two additional production lines at Giga Texas. While one of them is for Cybertruck, the other one is possibly being built for Model 3."
As I mentioned upthread, the buildout of more Model 3 production capacity seemed unlikely at the time due to the likely terminal demand at the $35K starting price-point. It seems that this Model 3 rumor was a red herring.
Going back a little further to Jan 23, 2023, Tesla Chief Designer Franz Von Holzhausen appeared in a "Ride The Lightning" interview saying that he was 'chomping at the bit' to talk about the new car' but couldn't talk about it yet:
Episode 389: Special Guest Franz von Holzhausen Talks Cybertruck, Roadster, and More! (cued to the where Franz talks about the MiC "Model 2")
Franz was also interviewed by Motortrend on Mar 31, 2023:
Design work for Gen3 Compact Car/Robotaxi was already well along by end of Q1 2023, which lends credence to Isaacson's notion that in springtime Tesla leadership was holding meetings with Elon to convince him to build both cars on the same production line.
In May, Elon seems to have agreed by deciding to build Gen3 first at Giga Texas. Let's look back at some cryptic comments made by Joe Tegtmeyer shortly thereafter:
Overall, what can we learn from this episode, and how to we go forward?
Now its humble time, time to admit that WE talked ourselves into believing that Gen3 would be built first at Giga Mexico. This IS NOT what Tesla (or Elon) said, that's what WE said.
- First and foremost, it takes MONTHS or possibly YEARS for decisions to be finalized
- Also, Retail investors don't neccessarily find out for MONTHS what was actually decided, then only by speculation and analysis (always obfuscated by the MSM)
- At the end of the day, decisions are always about how to advance the MISSION
- Tesla's mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.
Here is Elon's direct answer on this last question from the Tesla 2023 Investor Day Q&A Session: (which we soundly ignored)
"Tesla Investor Day 2023 Q&A | "Next Gen Car 3 questions" | Tesla (March 01, 2023)
Chris ???: "I have a few follow ups on the Next Gen vehicle. First, when do you think we'll get a look at it, maybe a prototype? Second, are there any detail you can share in terms of the size, the content, the performance. Third, I think you mentioned that you would produce it in other plants in addition to Mexico, should we take that to mean you can launch it at an existing plant before you're finished constructing the new plant in Mexico?"Elon Musk: "I think we'll probably have to decline that answer. We will have a proper sort of Product Event but we would be jumping the gun if we answer your questions. Maybe another question if there's..."
Lol, sometimes the answer is 'not yet, be patient'. As always, investing comes down to a simple choice: Do you trust Management? If yes, then stay invested. And possibly, sprinkle a bit more salt on 3rd-Party opinions going forward.
Cheers to the Longs!
...
2:48 video
2:02 Right turn into a parking lot/ strip mall that only has one lane, CT is closer to curb than the car which entered before
2:14 double right/ u-turn in the parking lot
2:30 right in the parking lot (wide, but likely tighter than camera truck)
2:45 right from lot into outer lane to set up the left turn.
Only the final turn falls under driving laws. Others are on private property.
This could just be some old, random design study by Franz...
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Superbowl LVIII will be held in Las Vegas on Sun, Feb 11, 2024. I have a pet theory: Tesla will unveil a fleet of robotaxis operating in the Boring Company tunnel network in Vegas for the event, to include McCarran Int'l Airport, the Strip, and Allegiant Stadium.
"In October, 2021 Las Vegas approved the Boring Company's plans to expand its Loop network to encompass more than 29 miles of tunnel. That figure grew to 34 miles in June, 2022 to include stations at Harry Reid International Airport and Allegiant Stadium following approval from the Clark County Commissioners."
Boring Company's underground Loop now runs to the Las Vegas Strip
the Boring Company and Resorts World Las Vegas have announced the official opening of the latest Loop station at Las Vegas Convention Center.
www.engadget.com
If things go well, these Robotaxi's will be operating with v12 FSD autonomy... if achieved, this Tesla new product debut will break the internet.
#PREDICT
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Based on this video and an 80 inch wide Cybertruck, I estimate turning radius at under 20 feet (6 widths from outer edge to outer edge)
If lanes at Giga Texas are 10 feet wide, then it looks under 20 feet.
Of course, turning radius is based on widest point on vehicle, not just midpoint of the side. Still, F150 turning radius is 20 to 26, so the longer wheelbase Cybertruck achieves or approximates the turning radius of the shortest wheelbase F150.
If lanes at Giga Texas are 10 feet wide, then it looks under 20 feet.
Of course, turning radius is based on widest point on vehicle, not just midpoint of the side. Still, F150 turning radius is 20 to 26, so the longer wheelbase Cybertruck achieves or approximates the turning radius of the shortest wheelbase F150.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I have a pet theory: Superbowl LVIII will be held in Las Vegas on Sun, Feb 11, 2024. I expect that Tesla will unveil a fleet of robotaxis operating in the Boring Company tunnel network in Vegas for the event, to include the McCarren Airport, the Strip, and the Stadium.
If things go well, these Robotaxi's will be operating with v12 FSD autonomy... if achieved, this would break the internet.
#PREDICT
There's a lot of issues with your idea.
For one- TBCs Teslas still aren't even allowed to use basic autopilot commercially in the tunnels
For another the tunnels to the specific places you list (not "the strip" which isn't one place it's miles of road and hotels), don't actually exist, and won't by that date. Ouside the existing LVCC stops and Resorts world the only 2 stations even under construction today are Westgate and Encore (actual digging is done on those two, but the rest of the work remains underway and no opening dates announced-- each new tunnel takes months from start to finish at this point, with the two I mention being "record fast" at 10 weeks for just the digging part)
I don’t believe there is a single ideal Robotaxi form factor. Certainly if you could only have one, then the Model Y would be a great fit.
But I think there’d be great value in a small single seater commuter special. You could have one very nice seat, tray, screen…
I also like the idea of a larger vehicle with separate compartments for rideshare. You get in your door, but have the choice of closing off your seat from the other occupants for privacy. After all, Robotaxi alone does not solve traffic, but a desirable ridesharing Robotaxi would greatly help. It’s still inconvenient in that you have to wait for other pickups/drop offs, but if you’re in your own compartment with privacy and your own nice space, it might be a worthwhile tradeoff for a cheaper fare and/or carpool lane access.
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Jennifer Doudna , the Nobel laureate credited with pioneering CRISPR gene editing, is still very much alive. I can't think of a more qualified biographer for Musk than Isaacson.
It could be a 2-Door Hatchback with fold down 2nd row seats.
Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley with a revised price target of $400. Up from $250. Bull Case now $550 per share
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