Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Usain]

Except for the fact it offers the same functionality, at the same SAE level, in the same type of very broad ODD. So it's exactly comparable in capabilities today.

You seem to keep No True Scotsmaning this fact by getting into the weeds of HOW they're providing those capabilities.

HOW is what actually matters here. This is an investor's forum and investment requires analysis of what a company will be capable of in the future.

It seems clear that you need end-to-end to ever achieve "go anywhere" unsupervised autonomy. Tesla has it. XPeng does not.

And it looks like XPeng does not have the resources to make an end-to-end system any time soon.

 

[Waiting4M3]

'Interesting pivot' indeed.

We know Ferrari makes tons of profit per vehicle, but I have to believe this is a smarter long-term play than trying to beat Tesla at the supercar owners market, especially if Rimac can be first within certain markets (before Tesla). I still wouldn't invest in them now, but maybe it's a smarter play than status quo EV development...?

Rimac is shifting from electric supercars to robotaxis

View attachment 1059938

The only relevant part here is that Rimac already has agreements to launch in 11 cities in EU/UK/MiddleEast. One common hand-wringing over robotaxi I always hear is "Elon/Tesla may be smart but what if the regulators screw them over?" The more others test their tech, the more precedence Tesla can use to get regulatory approval.

Other than that, it's Rimac, who knows nothing about volume manufacturing, using Mobileye tech, nuff said.

 

[unk45]

... They must have recognized that their software team is incorrigible...

Not long ago there WAS no 'software team', because software was written by whatever subcontractor had built the components that tended on software. Herbert Diess, as I recall, was quite public in is critique although it seems that has been less widely discussed since he was deposed.

Either way, thus far no other OEM has anything even remotely like Tesla software integration. As close as it comes might be BYD, only because their vertical integration is closely analogous to that of Tesla.

No accident that these are more or less tied globally. BYD does have much broader distribution outside of NA, but NA is inaccessible to BYD. VAG, on the other hand, is consistent in quietly favoring some industrial jingoism, itself part of VAG DNA from shareholders.

When we think of software we should realize that Rivian will not likely adopt increased efficiency. That is not an advantage of VAG, despite their early platform successes.

 

[Musskiah]

Quite the opposite- because they do have comparably capable tech-- factually so as it's currently, actively, available and in use everywhere in China just as FSD is everywhere in the US- that opinion has enough value to be worth mentioning here.

Hopefully Tesla eventually gets wide approval themselves in China and we can have a more 1:1 comparison in the same exact situations- but currently they're both L2, including both highways and city streets, on all public roads in their respective countries.

Most posters here, being the US, seemed unaware of that and were assuming, inaccurately, the only "competition" to consumer-owned FSD was trash like Blues Clues and whatever GM decided to offer this week...(or I suppose the L3 Mercedes system with the hilariously narrow ODD)


I'm also pointing out it's tough to claim one WITHOUT the other--- if they had no remotely comparable tech then their opinion on the tech would be of much less relevance and value-- and I found it funny that the same company dismissed as irrelevant in previous discussion is now suddenly worth mentioning - but apparently only because they said something nice about Tesla.

Fair assessment. I hope autonomous competition persists in China, as it drives innovation. It seems neither the Germans nor the Americans will offer true competition.

I don't find Xpeng equivalent to Tesla in autonomy, foremost, because they only JUST made their version available beyond a handful of cities and ring roads (highways). They don't have years of retrospective data or dozens of iterations as Tesla does. So even if their system proves as capable, there is only one company with a preponderance of self-driving miles measuring in the BILLIONS - Tesla.

Secondly, as of June 1, 2024, Xpeng has delivered 441,671 cars since its inception. Tesla nearly delivered that in the first half of 2024. They have more than 10x the number of cars on the road gathering data to train FSD. As we all know, this would certainly continue to widen their lead in autonomy. Xpeng isn't really competition, is it? At least... not yet

 

[unk45]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1806010412690972891

BYD hot seats

I'd wager that to be an outlier. My next door neighbor has a Seal and numerous Dolphins are nearby. I've not heard a hint of major glitches pop that type, although I know no Han drivers.
Cold this be anti-BYD FUD? I don't know but it smells a lot like the Tesla FUD we see so often.

 

[AndrewZ]

Rimac has ownership and other ties with Volkswagen so I wouldn’t count them out of volume manufacturing, VW has their umbrella over so many of these brands.

The ties with VW are probably a driver for involvement with Mobileye as those two have already been partnered for some time and expansion of that partnership was announced earlier this year

Volkswagen Group intensifies collaboration with Mobileye | Mobileye News

Volkswagen and Mobileye will bring new automated driving functions to series production based on the Mobileye SuperVision™ and Mobileye Chauffeur™ platforms.

www.mobileye.com

 

[Knightshade]

My man, my English Is bad, but I fail to see how you could think those were the metrics I was using...

Because you literally used them?

What I also know is that they always need money, they didn't give Amazon the millions vans they asked

I then corrected you by not only being off by 10x, but being wrong about them not delivering (and continuing to deliver) to Amazon and that Tesla did cap raises for over 17 years post-founding, while Rivian is only at 15 years post founding right now so the "needs money" bit isn't really instructive at this point-- so did Tesla.

: in 2023, they produced 57232 vehicles and delivered 50122. Tesla instead produced 495000 vehicles and delivered over 484000 vehicles. That is almost 10x.

I then pointed out they were only just over 2 years into mass production, and it took Tesla over 50% longer than that to hit 50k deliveries- and comparing a company 2 years into mass production/scaling to one that is 12 years in wasn't a reasonable comparison.



Again, Tesla was (and continues to be) a lot better looking than Rivian on many OTHER financial metrics--Tesla got from mass production to positive gross vehicle margins very quickly- Rivian still says that's an end-of-year goal which, even if they somehow hit, would leave them well behind Tesla reaching it for example.... And Rivians total cash burn per year of production (or even pre-production) is much higher as well. Rivian expects overall deliveries to be (very roughly) flat in just their third full year of mass production--- Tesla didn't have their first flat year on deliveries until their 12th full year of mass production (this year- though of course some rabbit-hat action remains possible I suppose).... Tesla also has other gross profit contributors (though only energy is a significant one in the financials today) that Rivian does not.

All those things and more are among why I own TSLA, not RIVN.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Rimac has ownership and other ties with Volkswagen so I wouldn’t count them out of volume manufacturing, VW has their umbrella over so many of these brands.

The ties with VW are probably a driver for involvement with Mobileye as those two have already been partnered for some time and expansion of that partnership was announced earlier this year

Volkswagen Group intensifies collaboration with Mobileye | Mobileye News

Volkswagen and Mobileye will bring new automated driving functions to series production based on the Mobileye SuperVision™ and Mobileye Chauffeur™ platforms.

www.mobileye.com

starting to feel like too many cooks in the kitchen

usually winners win alone, losers gang up to try to (futilely) catch up, a couple of examples come to mind
iPhone vs Windows/Nokia
TSMC vs IBM alliance (IBM + Global Foundries + Samsung)

 

[elasalle]

I'd wager that to be an outlier. My next door neighbor has a Seal and numerous Dolphins are nearby. I've not heard a hint of major glitches pop that type, although I know no Han drivers.
Cold this be anti-BYD FUD? I don't know but it smells a lot like the Tesla FUD we see so often.

I'm assuming in China, FUD means you will be taken to court and sued. So FUDsters need to be more careful in China ...

 

[Musskiah]

I'm assuming in China, FUD means you will be taken to court and sued. So FUDsters need to be more careful in China ...

I think it's fair to say Tesla is treated quite differently by Chinese media and by the Chinese government (which ate essentially synonymous) than they have historically been in the US .

 

[unk45]

I'm assuming in China, FUD means you will be taken to court and sued. So FUDsters need to be more careful in China ...

I was not thinking of China, specifically, but of what circulates out of China, perhaps purporting to be Chinese. No doubt, current events make me slightly jaundiced (not the physical type) about negative reports that seem maybe to be claiming improbable events.

 

[unk45]

I think it's fair to say Tesla is treated quite differently by Chinese media and by the Chinese government (which ate essentially synonymous) than they have historically been in the US .

No question about it. Tesla has had much greater government support in China than it has had in the US. Of course, another Musk company SpaceX, obviously has not had much help from China but major support by the US government.

It is equally notable that anti-Tesla FUD is prosecuted in China (remember the false acceleration case?) while in the US Tesla is officially ignored while wildly criticized with nary a peep of objection.

So, I presume this is what you meant?

 

[SarahsDad]

This was posted over on the AI thread - probably the closest thing so far to what we’ll see at the 8/8 robotaxi reveal. Interesting to watch the interviewer slowly getting the concept. Could see Rimac as a Tesla competitor but guessing their robotaxi version is much more costly to build (lots of sensors).

 

[AndrewZ]

starting to feel like too many cooks in the kitchen

usually winners win alone, losers gang up to try to (futilely) catch up, a couple of examples come to mind
iPhone vs Windows/Nokia
TSMC vs IBM alliance (IBM + Global Foundries + Samsung)

It’s almost hard to imagine but the auto industry absolutely dwarves phones and things like chips in terms of sales and revenue, profits are a different story but auto revenue is absolutely massive and I think that is something to consider when talking these comparisons and how it affects competition dynamics etc.

Tesla already produces more revenue than TSMC, Volkswagen wasn’t that far off from Apple in terms of total 2023 revenue.

All the big auto makers added up pulled in like $2trillion revenue last year

 

[Musskiah]

No question about it. Tesla has had much greater government support in China than it has had in the US. Of course, another Musk company SpaceX, obviously has not had much help from China but major support by the US government.

It is equally notable that anti-Tesla FUD is prosecuted in China (remember the false acceleration case?) while in the US Tesla is officially ignored while wildly criticized with nary a peep of objection.

So, I presume this is what you meant?

Indeed

 

[Mengy]

Not that I'm minding the gradual run up today for TSLA, but has there been any tangible news today to prompt this? Seems like there was massive buying right out of the gate, the money makers got a lid on it after a bit but its been gradually creeping up ever since. Is there a catalyst, or is the moon just in the correct phase tonight?

 

[Linkmeup]

Not that I'm minding the gradual run up today for TSLA, but has there been any tangible news today to prompt this? Seems like there was massive buying right out of the gate, the money makers got a lid on it after a bit but its been gradually creeping up ever since. Is there a catalyst, or is the moon just in the correct phase tonight?

Q2 2024 P&D

 

[EQC_]

...in 2023, [Rivian] produced 57232 vehicles and delivered 50122. Tesla instead produced 495000 vehicles and delivered over 484000 vehicles. That is almost 10x.

*Edited to note that I was ninja'd on this note by several folks above, I think Doggydogworld got it first. Leaving my post here since aubreymcfato liked it .

​

Slight correction:
I believe you compared Rivian's FULL 2023 numbers to Tesla's Q4 2023 numbers. So, it amplifies your point a bit when you note that for all of 2023, Tesla was at roughly 1.8 million vehicles.

 

[Southpasfan]

On FSD, with 8/8 only 35 days away, I don't see, unless they are holding back an update, that anything could be operational generally.

1. Perhaps, there could be operation in distinct areas, but that is unlike Tesla.

2. Otherwise, one more update, generally, with the level of improvement from 11 to 12, and

3. And, an update for a feature it does not have, which would be pulling into and out of driveways, parking lots, or at least parking spaces, at destinations.

I have no doubt it will get there, but probably not by 8/8. This will, to my mind, just extend the buying opportunity. It just looks like the market will not price it in until its 100% solved. Which seems odd by there you go. Especially odd when thousands of people can see the march of development.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Because you literally used them?

No, I literally didn't.
I was trying to compare two companies, saying that they are, at the moment, playing different sports, especially in terms of volume. To do that, I picked (wrongly) the latest annual cumulative P&D for both.
I get that comparing companies at different stage of growth is tricky, because they are "complex", and you can use many different metrics/criteria to do that: *you chose* those two underlying metrics, and decided alone to deep dive on those.

I then corrected you by not only being off by 10x,

it was clearly an hyperbole

but being wrong about them not delivering (and continuing to deliver) to Amazon

this is true, and I like that they are still delivering.

and that Tesla did cap raises for over 17 years post-founding, while Rivian is only at 15 years post founding right now so the "needs money" bit isn't really instructive at this point-- so did Tesla.

I then pointed out they were only just over 2 years into mass production, and it took Tesla over 50% longer than that to hit 50k deliveries- and comparing a company 2 years into mass production/scaling to one that is 12 years in wasn't a reasonable comparison.

you continue to play with numbers that no one mentioned (or even cared for). why do you care so much about these metrics only you are discussing? My point to @sunwarriors was that Rivian is kinda well-treated here, and even we are definitely biased we are also some numbers on our side.

BTW, you are being anal on these metrics, which you obviously had to research to check the numbers, but then you failed to correct me on the obvious, glaring mistake I did on the Tesla 2023 number because "it didn't matter"? Not sure I trust your intentions at this point.

Again, Tesla was (and continues to be) a lot better looking than Rivian on many OTHER financial metrics--Tesla got from mass production to positive gross vehicle margins very quickly- Rivian still says that's an end-of-year goal which, even if they somehow hit, would leave them well behind Tesla reaching it for example.... And Rivians total cash burn per year of production (or even pre-production) is much higher as well. Rivian expects overall deliveries to be (very roughly) flat in just their third full year of mass production--- Tesla didn't have their first flat year on deliveries until their 12th full year of mass production (this year- though of course some rabbit-hat action remains possible I suppose).... Tesla also has other gross profit contributors (though only energy is a significant one in the financials today) that Rivian does not.

All those things and more are among why I own TSLA, not RIVN.

so, after all this nitpicking, in the end you agree with my original point? are you a wikipedian by any chance?