Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Musskiah]

Re all this talk about growth in 2024:

Lathrop @ 10k megapacks annually should generate well over $20B in revenue simply from the sale ofmegapacks alone (and then recurring revenue stacks up each year for annual operational revenue). At just 20% margins, this is another $4B+ in annual profits, or $1B per Q - from a single Megafactory. $1B in profit is equivalent to roughly 200k M3/MY PER Q; or stated another way, equivalent to two factories! So there are the "two gigafactories built this year" we are looking for. Now recall Tesla has at least one Megafactory breaking ground in China in Shanghai (Lingang to be specific)... Tesla to begin construction of Shanghai Megafactory in near future, says EV maker's China chief
If this comes online by Q3 2024, lookout above!

Whether or not Berlin and Austin expand to double production in late 2024 much like Shanghai did two years ago, it is apparent that EARNINGS growth (its all about EBITA versus enterprise value and PEG ratio IMHO) is going to grow 30% from Energy alone in 2024. The beast is awakening.

I open my comments up for criticism...

 

[petit_bateau]

I spent a fruitless one hour two days ago trying to run down the meat of Benchmark Li’s comment, partly because at that time it was paired with a remark like “Key price barrier finally shattered”.

Why my search?

1. Which was it? Has the world for the first time finally reached the sub-$100 level,

or

2. Do BenchmarkLi’s data reach back only to Sept 2021,

or

3. Do journalists, or BL employees, not know how to express themselves,

or

4. Had there been some bizarre post-Covid market glitch that temporarily collapsed cell prices?

$<$100/kWh is a big deal, one worthy of celebration. Too bad the acknowledged leader of amassing these data cannot present them clearly.

Try looking at #765

Energy Sector News

WTI $87/bbl Brent $90 /bbl NL TTF gas €35 /MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote) China vulnerable https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/08/hong-kong-weather-record-rain-flooding-after-typhoon-haikui UK weakness (I lose track of how often...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[AudubonB]

Try looking at #765

Energy Sector News

WTI $87/bbl Brent $90 /bbl NL TTF gas €35 /MWh (EU Natural Gas - 2022 Data - 2010-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote) China vulnerable https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/08/hong-kong-weather-record-rain-flooding-after-typhoon-haikui UK weakness (I lose track of how often...

teslamotorsclub.com

It was exactly Tony Seba’s post that got me started on my search. Unfortunately, as far as I can see, your longer post doesn’t shed any light on the subject.

 

[AudubonB]

Tom Moloughney just gave Tesla the highest rating he has ever awarded for a charger.

I have had two of these on order for about two weeks. Unfortunately, my fervent plea to Tesla to provide better shipping guidance than “expect to start in October”, as it is hellish getting an electrician to schedule a work day, generated nothing better than “some time in October.”deleted deleted deleted deleted

 

[SOULPEDL]

This is going to sound like a lot of discussions out there to defend Tesla and EVs, but I'll share because I really felt that I was not quite ready to backup my case with data. I was fumbling to find info on the Cadi Lyiq and really missed you all. It felt like the more I explained, the more I sounded fan boy to myself.

So I was visited by my niece and family yesterday, and she brought up how nice the Cadillac Lyriq was and they saw one on the road. One.
I then ask the usual range and price, she pulled up a starting price, then a separate page showing over 300mi range. But she couldn't answer the question, $X for Y range so to speak. (Edit: Hey, it's 303 mi for the single motor, but very heavy, terrible efficiency, 100+ kWh so very costly).

Then I looked up how many sold, and seems around a few 1,000 so far and I explained how they loose money (no volume, -105% Ford margins etc...). I went on to explain her prices were "MSRP" and the dealer needs their cut because there's no maintenance, which can be $10-20K markups on EVs. That's if you can get one.

I eventually told her to go find one for sale on a GM lot, and tell me the price on the window or out the door. I recommended not to buy one, GM might not be around soon to service it full life. She denied being fooled by the media (most are insulted by this insinuation), but she then proceeded to show me that Ad for the lyriq.

She was aware of NIO and that some of the Chinese brands weren't available here yet. Kudos for shopping other BEV companies, but it sure sounded like she wanted the Lyriq. She was also impressed by the Leaf. That's when I realized, in some way, she knows more than I on the market in general. I have no idea how much (or how far) a Leaf goes for today. I just assume it's slow, inefficient and will break down with any bugs. But I don't know. Do they have wireless updates yet? Is anyone catching up (to Tesla)?

Wouldn't it be nice to have a current Fact/Fiction reference table that we could pull up at will? I felt like I failed as a salesman and no ammo at my fingertips. I had 2 people hitting me with assumptions and couldn't keep up. Where's that one slide at? You know... the BEV Sell Sheet.

 

[SOULPEDL]

In theory, comparing a less efficient Lyriq BEV with the same range as the Model Y, the Lyriq should have more towing range than the Y, right?
Same reason a totally inefficient gas vehicle isn't really bothered much by towing. (The Lyriq has 25 KWh more than the Y as needed for the insane weight of 5,642 lbs.)

 

[Usain]

I have had two of these on order for about two weeks. Unfortunately, my fervent plea to Tesla to provide better shipping guidance than “expect to start in October”, as it is hellish getting an electrician to schedule a work day, generated nothing better than “some time in October.”deleted deleted deleted deleted

Maloughney said he believes that he is the only one outside of Tesla who has the universal charger right now. Sounds like they haven't started mass production yet.

 

[aronth5]

Tesla Semi is killing it with 729 miles in one day with some extra charging during delivery stops.

Outstanding.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1701846620168728691

The Semi numbers are great but let's see how cold winter temperatures affect efficiency.
Hopefully truckers can avoid a good weather/cold weather delivery schedules to accommodate this.

 

[Usain]

I recommended not to buy one, GM might not be around soon to service it full life.

I was going to say that even if GM goes bankrupt or has to sell out, someone will be there to service the GM vehicles. There is still some profit to be squeezed out of parts and service.

But for low volume models like the Lyric, you could be right. After GM goes under, it won't make sense to support cars like the Lyric and Hummer.

Maybe some specialist will pop up where you could ship the car for service, kind of like Gruber does for the original Tesla roadster.

 

[winfield100]

This is going to sound like a lot of discussions out there to defend Tesla and EVs, but I'll share because I really felt that I was not quite ready to backup my case with data. I was fumbling to find info on the Cadi Lyiq and really missed you all. It felt like the more I explained, the more I sounded fan boy to myself.

So I was visited by my niece and family yesterday, and she brought up how nice the Cadillac Lyriq was and they saw one on the road. One.
I then ask the usual range and price, she pulled up a starting price, then a separate page showing over 300mi range. But she couldn't answer the question, $X for Y range so to speak. (Edit: Hey, it's 303 mi for the single motor, but very heavy, terrible efficiency, 100+ kWh so very costly).

Then I looked up how many sold, and seems around a few 1,000 so far and I explained how they loose money (no volume, -105% Ford margins etc...). I went on to explain her prices were "MSRP" and the dealer needs their cut because there's no maintenance, which can be $10-20K markups on EVs. That's if you can get one.

I eventually told her to go find one for sale on a GM lot, and tell me the price on the window or out the door. I recommended not to buy one, GM might not be around soon to service it full life. She denied being fooled by the media (most are insulted by this insinuation), but she then proceeded to show me that Ad for the lyriq.

She was aware of NIO and that some of the Chinese brands weren't available here yet. Kudos for shopping other BEV companies, but it sure sounded like she wanted the Lyriq. She was also impressed by the Leaf. That's when I realized, in some way, she knows more than I on the market in general. I have no idea how much (or how far) a Leaf goes for today. I just assume it's slow, inefficient and will break down with any bugs. But I don't know. Do they have wireless updates yet? Is anyone catching up (to Tesla)?

Wouldn't it be nice to have a current Fact/Fiction reference table that we could pull up at will? I felt like I failed as a salesman and no ammo at my fingertips. I had 2 people hitting me with assumptions and couldn't keep up. Where's that one slide at? You know... the BEV Sell Sheet.

OT
@SOULPEDL
?This one?
(a portion thereof )

https://evadc.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/EVInfoSheet-20210907.pdf

 

[betstarship]

I worry about similar, bigger issues with TSLA when Tesla enables the robotaxi fleet. Anyone else?

A Bus Driver Killed a Man, the City Blamed Tech

from activists and journalists to government officials, a sprawling web of disinformation has distorted the narrative around self-driving taxis — and now it’s being exposed

www.theindustry.pw

 

[Singuy]

I worry about similar, bigger issues with TSLA when Tesla enables the robotaxi fleet. Anyone else?

A Bus Driver Killed a Man, the City Blamed Tech

from activists and journalists to government officials, a sprawling web of disinformation has distorted the narrative around self-driving taxis — and now it’s being exposed

www.theindustry.pw

I used to be worried but not so much. Tesla's FSD rollout plus future licensing ensure the tech is in everyone's hand vs some mysterious product that may or may not work. Once everyone has experienced FSD for a few years then there wouldn't be any FUD that sticks, or interesting to write about.

It'll be like writing an article about some random person getting stranded in a TESLA due not having a place to charge. Pretty sure this article will be forgotten in 30 mins because people then switching the blame to the person rather to Tesla, and perceive it as much as a something burger as someone who got stranded due to running out of gas.

 

[navguy12]

Volkswagon and Stellantis, don't worry. Canada's Industry Minister Francois-Phillippe Champagne thinks you're good for another 100 years.

Read in National Post:
EV battery subsidies to take 20 years to break even, not five as government claimed: PBO — National Post

"It will take 20 years for the federal and provincial governments to break even on massive subsidies to auto giants Volkswagen and Stellantis, not the five years that the government initially pledged, according to the (Canada's) Parliamentary Budget Officer (Yves Giroux).
Volkswagen, which plans a massive electric vehicle battery plant in St. Thomas, Ont., and Stellantis, which is building a plant with LG in Windsor, Ont., both received massive production subsidies from the provincial and federal government.
Those subsidies will pay the companies for every battery they produce at the new facilities on top of money both companies received for building the plants. Volkswagen is set to get $13.2 billion ($9.7B USD) and Stellantis, the parent company of Chrysler and Jeep, is set to receive $15 billion ($11.1B USD).

Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne defended the subsidies when they were announced, insisting they would pay off in just five years. “Talk to any banker. He would say if you get your money in five years for a plant that’s going to be there for 100 years, that’s a pretty good deal for Canadians,” he said when the Volkswagen deal was announced."

That 20 year claim is based on having no other Canadian systems spool up to meet the demands of those factories (such as raw materials being mined in other parts of Canada, for example).

 

[keydiver]

I was going to say that even if GM goes bankrupt or has to sell out, someone will be there to service the GM vehicles. There is still some profit to be squeezed out of parts and service.

But for low volume models like the Lyric, you could be right. After GM goes under, it won't make sense to support cars like the Lyric and Hummer.

Maybe some specialist will pop up where you could ship the car for service, kind of like Gruber does for the original Tesla roadster.

It doesn't appear that GM is very anxious to keep supporting older EV's or hybrids from what I just heard. A guy in a Volt was right ahead of me, and we both were headed to Harbor Freight. He asked me how I liked my Model Y, and then told me how he is having so much trouble finding parts for his Volt. He said he almost went to Canada for an EGR valve. I have the same concerns about people buying Lucids. What does your niece have against Tesla? At least there are hundreds of thousands of them on the road and you can be assured that Tesla will be around to support them.

 

[wipster]

I’m only 37% through the Issacson biography but so far my view is that he’s subtly anti-Elon, speaking as an Elon-o-phile and a Tesla/SpaceX/Boring fanboi. It may not matter because the vast majority of people reading this don’t know much about Elon and there is more good than bad about him in there. Even though I just read 200+ pages, it seems that he rushed over seminal moments in Tesla/SpaceX early history. Very little was said about the Model S design and early production. Nothing about Falcon 9 development. He totally botched the grasshopper section where he confused grasshopper and early Falcon 9 landing attempts, it was a confusing mess.

So far Issacson spends a lot of time on interpersonal interactions and far less on the companies themselves, which is, I guess, what you’d expect from a literary writer.

If you want to know early SpaceX history, the Berger book is far, far superior.

We shall see what the later chapters produce, I suspect there is a lot more detail about the last two years when Issacson shadowed Elon. Hopefully he’ll be able to understand what he witnessed and not botch that too.

Christine Amanpour will have a relatively long interview with Issacson on her CNN show tomorrow and based on the excerpt shown, it may focus on the negative aspects of Elon's personality as well. For instance, the excerpt shown this morning discussed how Issacson feels that Elon is becoming more like his father as he gets older and discusses his rationale in coming to that conclusion.

Will be interesting, hope that CNN's typical negative view towards Elon isn't rubbing off on Amanpour, she's better than that IMO.

 

[SOULPEDL]

OT
@SOULPEDL
?This one?
(a portion thereof )
View attachment 973587

https://evadc.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/EVInfoSheet-20210907.pdf

Hardly OT, this is market position data, USA I assume. It's even grouped by company so we see how many of those 15 promised models actually made it to "The Chart". Wishing it was a $40K Cybertruck - so obviously the data is changing fast. Could even place some known roadmap Tesla's to compare the future lineup along with production #s. I bet Analysts would hate that (simple truth) floating around to compare at a glance. Would take some time to maintain, not my thing. But some of these YouTube folks?

 

[wipster]

<snip>
It'll be like writing an article about some random person getting stranded in a TESLA due not having a place to charge. Pretty sure this article will be forgotten in 30 mins because people then switching the blame to the person rather to Tesla, and perceive it as much as a something burger as someone who got stranded due to running out of gas.

Depends on the headline...

 

[GhostSkater]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702042226539512089

 

[Singuy]

I swear all of these constant lies and misreporting by our media will cause a war one day.

China denies any iPhone ban for government staffers. Here's our take on why Apple stock isn't popping

The news that had sent shares of the Club holding tumbling last week.

www.cnbc.com

 

[2daMoon]

The Last Supper (actually Lunch)

My former employer is closing the doors and they had a fajita luncheon to which I was invited. Lunch, of course, isn't investment related, but wait for the punch line.

While chatting with my former boss he said, "I finally went electric!" and I followed with, "Did you get a Tesla?"

He then replied, "No, I bought an Audi." So, being gracious, I follow with, "Oh, an e-Tron?" (knowing full well he has studied French)

"An A4" he responded. Naturally, I had to ask, "How do you like it?"

He responds, "Well, it's in the shop right now. The AC doesn't work"

This is bullish, right?