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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Maybe something like this happened to it though:

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Interesting that you picked an image of the Hydrogen filling station that exploded in Norway back in 2019.

Norway is THE country for electric vehicles - over 80% of new cars are BEVs. Because of the government changing car taxes to rhyme with their pollution.

This benefit include hydrogen cars too. Since they basically are EVs with a hydrogen fueled onboard charger/range extender. So you would expect Norway to be a hydrogen paradise with cars and filling stations everywhere? Certainly many thought so a few years ago. Hydrogen stations were built and cars with the HY licence plates were sold. Hardly noticeable in a sea of EL licence plates. But a good start. And customers could buy HY cars from Toyota, Honda and Hyundai.

But then in June 2019 the hydrogen filling station UncaNed showed us exploded. It was pure luck that nobody was killed or injured. Cars on the road in the top left of the picture felt a huge shockwave.

After this the 10 or so hydrogen stations were all closed. And today there are no filling stations open to the public. We have a couple for buses and boats but they are only used by their respective companies.

Since HY cars cannot make it in the EV paradise of Norway how come some people still think they are a good idea?
 
Always been my opine just combine the Roadster and Model S and have a true flagship on all levels of performance and luxury.
I would very much like a 2 seat convertible from Tesla. The Miata is the only ICE vehicle I miss driving. I enjoyed the Model S P85+ I owned as my first Tesla and would likely be happy with a Plaid S but I've been holding out for the new Roadster
 
One concern I have - Ron Baron said they'd be up (in terms of units of cars sold) only 20-30% this year, and the same next year. Just for context:

In 2022, Tesla sold 1.31 million units

Based off of 20% unit growth projections:

2023 - 1.57 million units
2024 - 1.89 million units

Based off of 30% unit growth projections:

2023 - 1.7 million units
2024 - 2.21 million units

These numbers are extremely conservative, aren't they? If Tesla sells 1.57-1.7 million units in 2023, I think TSLA is guaranteed to crash back into the $100s.

So is Ron Baron just spitballing conservative numbers, or does he have some kind of guidance directly from Tesla?
Isn’t what’s important revenue growth rather than vehicle unit growth? Not to mention profit growth?
 
Along this line of thought, would it be likely that Pepsi rarely charges higher than 80%? If so, this would be a good counter argument for all the "Tesla Semi is not making 500 mile runs" rhetoric that will abound.

Well, the site in not loading, probably due to the amount of people from Mercedes checking the data to see with their own eyes, plus Bill Gates, but they are charging above 80% frequently

Keep trying to open


Edit: opened and went down again before I could get data for all the trucks for all days, but still

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How would next year's estimates be affected if the production of the Next-gen in Austin were to begin as early as mid to late 2024?

It would still take time to ramp the Gen 3 line, but if they indeed started production late 2024 in Austin then I don't think it would have a large impact on 2024, but it WOULD have a sizeable impact on 2025 production. :cool:
 
The Roadster 2020? Do you think Tesla is still going to make it? If it is canceled, perhaps announcing so would cause those waiting for a Roadster to buy a Plaid instead.
I'm one of those. My roadster deposit will immediately go towards a newly less expensive Plaid. The only reason I didn't jump on one already is that I'm already planning to get my truck by EOY or close to it. (low reso #)
 
Berlin and Austin have room to continue production growth.

Teslas Q2 deck lists Berlin at 375k and Austin at ">250k"-- and notes that's "installed capacity" not the actual current run rates.

They'd both have to more than double those numbers to get you anywhere near 50% growth for 2024 from the 1.8M projected for 2023.... (and more than that if Tesla beats 1.8 this year)... and that also assumes Shanghai at 1M a year, a despite it only being listed at ">750k" in the shareholder deck from Q2 2023 and for Fremont continuing at max capacity output of 650k
 
I’m only 37% through the Issacson biography but so far my view is that he’s subtly anti-Elon, speaking as an Elon-o-phile and a Tesla/SpaceX/Boring fanboi. It may not matter because the vast majority of people reading this don’t know much about Elon and there is more good than bad about him in there. Even though I just read 200+ pages, it seems that he rushed over seminal moments in Tesla/SpaceX early history. Very little was said about the Model S design and early production. Nothing about Falcon 9 development. He totally botched the grasshopper section where he confused grasshopper and early Falcon 9 landing attempts, it was a confusing mess.

So far Issacson spends a lot of time on interpersonal interactions and far less on the companies themselves, which is, I guess, what you’d expect from a literary writer.

If you want to know early SpaceX history, the Berger book is far, far superior.

We shall see what the later chapters produce, I suspect there is a lot more detail about the last two years when Issacson shadowed Elon. Hopefully he’ll be able to understand what he witnessed and not botch that too.
 
Isn’t what’s important revenue growth rather than vehicle unit growth? Not to mention profit growth?
For TSLA the stock, yes, you're correct, at least for short to midterm price. But there isn't much to make revenue growth increase more than how significant price cuts have been. Yes, there's storage, but I don't think storage balances out the price cuts.
 
I’m only 37% through the Issacson biography but so far my view is that he’s subtly anti-Elon, speaking as an Elon-o-phile and a Tesla/SpaceX/Boring fanboi.

You might be right. It was pretty shocking to me how he portrays some controversial issues as if Elon is completely at fault. Of course, he never directly says it based on what I've read so far, but if someone that didn't know a good deal about Elon and his companies' history were to read the book, it would be hard for them not to blame Elon for some of the issues he's had at his companies. I tried to keep this as generic as possible, so hopefully nobody considers this a spoiler.
 
I’m only 37% through the Issacson biography but so far my view is that he’s subtly anti-Elon, speaking as an Elon-o-phile and a Tesla/SpaceX/Boring fanboi. It may not matter because the vast majority of people reading this don’t know much about Elon and there is more good than bad about him in there. Even though I just read 200+ pages, it seems that he rushed over seminal moments in Tesla/SpaceX early history. Very little was said about the Model S design and early production. Nothing about Falcon 9 development. He totally botched the grasshopper section where he confused grasshopper and early Falcon 9 landing attempts, it was a confusing mess.

So far Issacson spends a lot of time on interpersonal interactions and far less on the companies themselves, which is, I guess, what you’d expect from a literary writer.

If you want to know early SpaceX history, the Berger book is far, far superior.

We shall see what the later chapters produce, I suspect there is a lot more detail about the last two years when Issacson shadowed Elon. Hopefully he’ll be able to understand what he witnessed and not botch that too.
<-- biography thread is that way

Other folks are trying to read it too so spoilers ain't welcome at all.