Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

It doesn't appear that GM is very anxious to keep supporting older EV's or hybrids from what I just heard. A guy in a Volt was right ahead of me, and we both were headed to Harbor Freight. He asked me how I liked my Model Y, and then told me how he is having so much trouble finding parts for his Volt. He said he almost went to Canada for an EGR valve. I have the same concerns about people buying Lucids. What does your niece have against Tesla? At least there are hundreds of thousands of them on the road and you can be assured that Tesla will be around to support them.

I'm the one with the niece Good question. Not sure why not the Tesla, especially since just 2 yrs ago I took her and husband for a drive in a Model 3 and they both said they had to have one. It could be they're just now in the market and doing broad research. Maybe "Cadillac" is something society taught was the best to impress.

They also thought the Lyriq was much less expensive than the Model Y (which I corrected immediately). They are not technical, daring circus artists actually. So show is important, but price means more. Maybe that's all I needed to say. (A Tesla Ad on the latest pricing may have helped here except Tesla prices constantly change which could get expensive to maintain price awareness.)

 

[EVMeister]

The Last Supper (actually Lunch)

My former employer is closing the doors and they had a fajita luncheon to which I was invited. Lunch, of course, isn't investment related, but wait for the punch line.

While chatting with my former boss he said, "I finally went electric!" and I followed with, "Did you get a Tesla?"

He then replied, "No, I bought an Audi." So, being gracious, I follow with, "Oh, an e-Tron?" (knowing full well he has studied French)

"An A4" he responded. Naturally, I had to ask, "How do you like it?"

He responds, "Well, it's in the shop right now. The AC doesn't work"

This is bullish, right?

Unless we've suddenly arrived at 2026, there is no electric A4 (and this will also bear the e-Tron name).

 

[JustSaying]

Small number (200) for "word changing" technology - that I'm literally banking on.
1500 left at eX-twitter - a non-world changing technology (my opinion) that my banking has supported.

Not sure I like those foreword looking shadow 'statements'.
So from where I stand, a sphincter tightening moment.
Misguided?

Brooks' Law;
'However, other tasks including many specialties in software projects are less divisible; Brooks points out this limited divisibility with another example: while it takes one woman nine months to make one baby, "nine women can't make a baby in one month".'

 

[Musskiah]

Re all this talk about growth in 2024:

Lathrop @ 10k megapacks annually should generate well over $20B in revenue simply from the sale ofmegapacks alone (and then recurring revenue stacks up each year for annual operational revenue). At just 20% margins, this is another $4B+ in annual profits, or $1B per Q - from a single Megafactory. $1B in profit is equivalent to roughly 200k M3/MY PER Q; or stated another way, equivalent to two factories! So there are the "two gigafactories built this year" we are looking for. Now recall Tesla has at least one Megafactory breaking ground in China in Shanghai (Lingang to be specific)... Tesla to begin construction of Shanghai Megafactory in near future, says EV maker's China chief
If this comes online by Q3 2024, lookout above!

Whether or not Berlin and Austin expand to double production in late 2024 much like Shanghai did two years ago, it is apparent that EARNINGS growth (its all about EBITA versus enterprise value and PEG ratio IMHO) is going to grow 30% from Energy alone in 2024. The beast is awakening.

I open my comments up for criticism...

 

[GhostSkater]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702042226539512089

We have been bamboozled

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702056194545008699

 

[Musskiah]

Link to Lingang Megapack article:

Tesla to begin construction of Shanghai Megafactory in near future, says EV maker's China chief

Tesla's Shanghai Megafactory is scheduled to begin construction in the third quarter this year and start production in the second quarter of 2024, according to an April announcement.

cnevpost.com

Re all this talk about growth in 2024:

Lathrop @ 10k megapacks annually should generate well over $20B in revenue simply from the sale ofmegapacks alone (and then recurring revenue stacks up each year for annual operational revenue). At just 20% margins, this is another $4B+ in annual profits, or $1B per Q - from a single Megafactory. $1B in profit is equivalent to roughly 200k M3/MY PER Q; or stated another way, equivalent to two factories! So there are the "two gigafactories built this year" we are looking for. Now recall Tesla has at least one Megafactory breaking ground in China in Shanghai (Lingang to be specific)... Tesla to begin construction of Shanghai Megafactory in near future, says EV maker's China chief
If this comes online by Q3 2024, lookout above!

Whether or not Berlin and Austin expand to double production in late 2024 much like Shanghai did two years ago, it is apparent that EARNINGS growth (its all about EBITA versus enterprise value and PEG ratio IMHO) is going to grow 30% from Energy alone in 2024. The beast is awakening.

I open my comments up for criticism...

 

[M|S|M MYP]

We have been bamboozled

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702056194545008699

I read "Not at this time, it's all speculation" translated to "Please do not post the screenshot of our conversation on X or TMC, otherwise i will be out of a job"

 

[Musskiah]

Link to Lingang Megafactory article:

Tesla to begin construction of Shanghai Megafactory in near future, says EV maker's China chief

Tesla's Shanghai Megafactory is scheduled to begin construction in the third quarter this year and start production in the second quarter of 2024, according to an April announcement.

cnevpost.com

 

[hobbes]

We have been bamboozled

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702056194545008699

My reading between the lines: CT starting soon, but we can´t say it officially, especially since you´re a youtuber.

 

[Drumheller]

Tesla HVAC product announcement may be tomorrow


As I just replaced my system with a heat pump today.

 

[2daMoon]

Unless we've suddenly arrived at 2026, there is no electric A4 (and this will also bear the e-Tron name).

TBH, I probably mis-remembered the model. It definitely started with an A. So, is this what getting old is gonna be like?

The important bits are:

Audi​

Electric​

AC doesn't work​

Bullish?​

Let's just go with that.

Edit: after looking over the current models and knowing his preference for SUVs, it was more than likely the Q4 rather than the A4.

 

[petit_bateau]

It was exactly Tony Seba’s post that got me started on my search. Unfortunately, as far as I can see, your longer post doesn’t shed any light on the subject.

You are most welcome.

(The data I give only goes back to 1999. Maybe you need a stronger searchlight.)

 

[betstarship]

After reading this article - I feel shameful as a TSLA investor for making money off of this guy and his team's incredible work over the years. It makes me want to donate more and do more tbh.

During stressful periods at work and in his personal life, Elon Musk would stay awake at night and vomit. He says working so hard has 'taken its toll.'

Elon Musk struggled with stomach issues during challenging periods in his career and relationships, Walter Isaacson wrote.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Singuy]

Pretty awesome chart made by boomermama

https://twitter.com/TeslaBoomerMama/status/1702067605962674586?s=20

 

[Singuy]

After reading this article - I feel shameful as a TSLA investor for making money off of this guy and his team's incredible work over the years. It makes me want to donate more and do more tbh.

During stressful periods at work and in his personal life, Elon Musk would stay awake at night and vomit. He says working so hard has 'taken its toll.'

Elon Musk struggled with stomach issues during challenging periods in his career and relationships, Walter Isaacson wrote.

www.businessinsider.com

Holding Tsla was not exactly 2damoon money printing. There were plenty of vomit inducing events for shareholders, and we served to provide Tesla the lifeline they needed during every capital raise. Granted, what this man and the team sacrificed for the company is incredible and shouldn't be underappreciated. However I do think most shareholders who hodl and bought the dip during Tesla's roughest years also deserve some credit in which Musk is grateful for.

You should see some of the comments here in 2019. I and others were like "F it, if this goes down to zero then at least I can tell my kids we tried to give Tesla the best chance to fight climate change".

 

[AndrewZ]

I swear all of these constant lies and misreporting by our media will cause a war one day.

China denies any iPhone ban for government staffers. Here's our take on why Apple stock isn't popping

The news that had sent shares of the Club holding tumbling last week.

www.cnbc.com

Saying there hasn't been a formal ban or documented policy doesn't actually mean anything, she followed that up by talking about how the Chinese government pays attention to unspecified "security incidents" with Apple's phones and puts great importance on cybersecurity etc

Not Tesla stock related, but the China-Western relationship potentially affects all this stuff of course. I'm sure we're all aware of China's actions around Tesla vehicles + government facilities and their ability to capture video/audio data.

 

[Tony73]

The Semi numbers are great but let's see how cold winter temperatures affect efficiency.
Hopefully truckers can avoid a good weather/cold weather delivery schedules to accommodate this.

A semi truck should do better in cold weather than a passenger car.
Cabin heating load is not much bigger than a car but battery is 10x. The battery itself can also be heated with little drag on the overall range. There is so much more engineers can do to insulate the battery given they have more space to work with. Professional truckers are more likely to plug in and preheat the battery before hitting the road. Staying warm requires a lot less energy than heating from cold.

 

[Artful Dodger]

as they move to gen 3, it wouldn't be surprising if there's a year worth of stagnation before rocketing again.

Indeed, folks should be aware that Tesla's stated intention for "50% annual volume growth" is the multiyear average. Elon has long said some years will be more, some less growth (as we've seen already). But instead, folks on Wall-E want 50% annualized growth every quarter (ie: Gary whinging yesterday about want it'd take for Q3 to be a new record ).

Instead, let's set expectations for growth this decade with the baseline year of 2020 (when this LONG-TERM GOAL was set):

Notice how far ahead we are already, and how much addtional growth is required in 2024 to continue this pace? It's just +40.6% or 731k units increase in 2024 vs 2023, well within reach given Giga Shanghai's new faster production rate, Cybertruck going into mass production in 2024 (run-rate goal 375k/yr), and continued ramping of Model Y at Berlin and Austin.

And that's the goal. Tesla will work hard to achieve it while managing its business, and the economic reality of the times. But let's not take our eyes off the prize: AUTONOMY.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Artful Dodger]

The Roadster 2020? Do you think Tesla is still going to make it? If it is canceled, perhaps announcing so would cause those waiting for a Roadster to buy a Plaid instead.

Franz told us during a podcast earlier this year that Roadster is coming (be patient!), and that they continue to work on it to make it even better. Right now, it's likely waiting on 4680 Gen 2 'cybercells'. Or possibly an even better bty cell with single-crystal-silicon anode chemistry. Perhaps Kato Rd will make a special hi-po cell? Plaid, and Tesla Aviation, all need max perf.

Personally, I'd hate to buy a Roadster w/o 600 miles of range, also with an 8.xx sec qtr-mile sprint. Fredtrek is going to be so verkempt when he finds out news blogs that published a referral code won't qualify for a freebee.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It would still take time to ramp the Gen 3 line, but if they indeed started production late 2024 in Austin then I don't think it would have a large impact on 2024, but it WOULD have a sizeable impact on 2025 production.

You guys are way to pessimistic on Gen 3! It's clear that Tesla installed an extra stamping press months ago. They don't need a new paint shop (no paint!). And Walter Isaacson told us that Elon was spenting hrs each week this past Summer 'shaving milliseconds' off of each step in a highly-automated assembly line. You don't do that in a CAD model, you do it on the factory floor. The Gen3 line already exists!

Again, I expect that Tesla will debut Robotaxi at the Superbowl in Vegas on Feb 11, 2024 and they'll have a fleet of (oh, WAG) maybe 500 robotaxis running v12 FSD just shuttling game goers between the airport, the strip/hotels, and the stadium. PRICELE$$

I'd be equally impressed (but not surprised) if The Boring Company announce a contract to buy 100K robotaxi's or some such. Or even, if Tesla bought TBC.

Cheers to the Wild Ones!