Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Does anyone remember if this is a reduction from previous 2030 predicts from Baron? I consider him a hyper-bull, yet I am expecting more by 2030....

Yeah, I track Ron Baron on Tesla.

Billionaire Ron Baron: I could make 30-50 times my money on Tesla over next 15 years | Nov 4, 2016 Market Cap for TSLA in 2016 was $34.4B so 30x that is exactly $1T. See here for historical data by year:

Tesla (TSLA) - Market capitalization​

Ron Baron then repeated this on CNBC Televison on Nov 9, 2018 (a year before TSLA had it's big run after becoming profitable in Q3 2019)

In 2030 Tesla could be a trillion-dollar company, says Ron Baron | CNBC TV (2018-11-09)

Ron doubled his PT just before the 'social influencer' short-faced bear raid:

Tesla longtime bull Ron Baron sees TSLA's path to $2 trillion market cap (Oct 14, 2020)

And Dave Lee covered Ron's 2030 price target just 10 months ago:

Ron Baron’s 2030 Tesla Stock Price Target (Ep. 695) | Dave Lee (Nov 05, 2022)

Napkin Math:​

2025: $500-$600 per share​

2030: $4.5T Market Cap (~$1,400/sh)​

​

Most notably, Ron's numbers are just for the Auto business, w/o FSD. They DO NOT include robots, autonomous vehicles, or batteries:​

Cheers!

TL;dw If you only have time for 1 of these videos, I recommend @DaveT for the 'base case' plus the 'free call options' on FSD, robotics, and energy storage.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I'm okay with that.

Me too. Whatever we get, I just hope a significant amount gets here earlier as opposed to later because retirement.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Most notably, Ron's numbers are just for the Auto business, w/o FSD. They DO NOT include robots, autonomous vehicles, or batteries:

Obviously!

 

[2daMoon]

This offers a good reading of the consumers that Jim is picking up on. He has named "charge anxiety" as opposed to "range anxiety" as being the more significant deterrent to buyers transitioning to EVs.

I say that is to be expected. In every transition there will be:

​

The Early Adopter phase (which I'd say we are still in now).​

​

Then comes the Mainstream phase where most people adopt the mindset that the new is actually better for them than the old.​

​

Lastly, are the Holdouts, those who refused to be confused by the facts, and grasp tightly onto their fear-based excuses while paying more in cash, convenience, or both just to avoid having to change.​

This article is about Jim Farley realizing the need to raise awareness regarding the "charge problem" and make it clear how charging will be a rapidly-improving part of the transition. To me, this is necessary to be well known as a clear path to convenient charging before the Mainstream buyers start grabbing with both hands.

Mostly because, we aren't going back to ICE. Evah.

If the mainstream adoption of EVs precede the ability to increase production of both charge stations and batteries in step with demand, it could result in prices going up instead of down as that balance is met in the middle of the S-curve. This might be pretty sweet for us HODLers.

Ford CEO Jim Farley argues a new 'anxiety' plagues consumers from EVs

Ford's Jim Farley believes a new type of anxiety is steering consumers away from electric vehicles.

www.teslarati.com

 

[AndrewZ]

Mid-Oct 2020 TSLA had approximately $450bn in market cap; now approximately double that.

I'm going to join those two data and say Mr B has maintained a $3T "possible" mark by 2030, plus or minus $1T.

$450bn in October 2020 money is worth $530bn in August 2023 money, adjusted for inflation

Maybe Ron just thinks inflation will be rampant for the next six years

 

[MartinAustin]

TSLA is on a nice trajectory at the moment... $276+

 

[Usain]

OR, maybe it will be called the Model U, and then with the Tesla Van.....

S - Model S
3 - Model 3
X - Model X
Y - Model Y

C - Cybertruck
U - Model U (compact)
R - Roadster
V - Tesla Van
S - Semi

S3XY CURVS

I've got it! Elon wants everything measured to the tiniest degree of accuracy. How about measuring it to one hundred-millionth of a centimeter, also known as the Angstrom unit? It's mostly used for distances at the atomic level. Totally satisfies Elon's nerd sensibilities.

The new 25K car will be called the "Angstrom". That way you can use the Å symbol and get:

S - Model S
3 - Model 3
X - Model X
Y - Model Y

C - Cybertruck
Å - Angstrom (compact)
R - Roadster
S - Semi

 

[growler23]

I've got it! Elon wants everything measured to the tiniest degree of accuracy. How about measuring it to one hundred-millionth of a centimeter, also known as the Angstrom unit? It's mostly used for distances at the atomic level. Totally satisfies Elon's nerd sensibilities.

The new 25K car will be called the "Angstrom". That way you can use the Å symbol and get:

S - Model S
3 - Model 3
X - Model X
Y - Model Y

C - Cybertruck
Å - Angstrom (compact)
R - Roadster
S - Semi

I support this - as long as the Ångstrom comes in a nice Avogadro color.

 

[AudubonB]

I've got it! Elon wants everything measured to the tiniest degree of accuracy. How about measuring it to one hundred-millionth of a centimeter, also known as the Angstrom unit? It's mostly used for distances at the atomic level. Totally satisfies Elon's nerd sensibilities.

The new 25K car will be called the "Angstrom". That way you can use the Å symbol and get:

True. And Ford & Farley would get quite einen angststrom out of that.

 

[Mengy]

For those that do their own modeling here, what is your prediction for 2030 and maybe beyond? I don't even try to model anything finance wise since it's not my thing

My model's prediction for the share price in 2030 is about $1200 per share. For reference, that is auto + energy only, no robotaxis, no insurance, no Optimus, no HVAC, no Dojo services to the public. I'm also modeling Tesla missis its 20 million production target and only hits 16 million production in 2030. It is also with a very modest PE of 30, so it's very fair to say my estimate is extremely conservative.

If they actually hit 20 million production my estimate is low. If we get lots of insurance revenue my model is low. If we get tons of revenues from high margin FSD sales my estimate is very low. If we get robotaxis my estimate is terribly low. If Optimus goes into production and begins sales my estimate is gargantuanly low.

 

[insaneoctane]

A lot has to go right to get a 5X in 7 years.

Yeah, but it only has to 2.9x from ATH

 

[Featsbeyond50]

My model's prediction for the share price in 2030 is about $1200 per share. For reference, that is auto + energy only, no robotaxis, no insurance, no Optimus, no HVAC, no Dojo services to the public. I'm also modeling Tesla missis its 20 million production target and only hits 16 million production in 2030. It is also with a very modest PE of 30, so it's very fair to say my estimate is extremely conservative.

If they actually hit 20 million production my estimate is low. If we get lots of insurance revenue my model is low. If we get tons of revenues from high margin FSD sales my estimate is very low. If we get robotaxis my estimate is terribly low. If Optimus goes into production and begins sales my estimate is gargantuanly low.

If we don't have Robotaxi (including FSD), Optimus, or Dojo by 2030 the share price will be closer to $120.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

If we don't have Robotaxi (including FSD), Optimus, or Dojo by 2030 the share price will be closer to $120.

After 10 more splits right?

 

[SO16]

Gosh… what an UNFAIR advantage.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1702325410426691669

 

[Blue horseshoe]

I must be I'm the wrong thread. By 2030 I believe Tesla will be generating close to $1T in revenue and trade at an ~8X price to sales. They'll be close to 20M vehicles produced, fsd up and running, robotaxi growing, Optimus iterating, etc.

2030 share price: ~$2,500/sh

 

[petit_bateau]

For those that do their own modeling here, what is your prediction for 2030 and maybe beyond? I don't even try to model anything finance wise since it's not my thing

The mkt caps below might arise in a very successful case (20m cars/yr; 30% GM; massive storage growth). Depending on valuation model they give $10 trn (highest) to $1.6 trn (lowest). Lesser success would give lower mkt caps, including many that are below todays. This stuff is not easy.

 

[Mengy]

If we don't have Robotaxi (including FSD), Optimus, or Dojo by 2030 the share price will be closer to $120.

I'm curious, could you show us your math on how you arrived at that price per share? Because, and please don't take any offense to this, but that simply isn't grounded in reality.

For reference, in my model to get $120/share in 2030 we would need 10 million production, Megapack sales equally low, a GM of 10%, and a PE of 6.

 

[AudubonB]

DreamyMcDreamFact:

Two years ago today, TSLA closed at $252. By a mere seven weeks later, on Nov. 5, it had risen $155, or +62%, to that glorious $407 number.

Think how much stronger Tesla is than way back in autumn 2021. It could happen again.....

 

[M|S|M MYP]

DreamyMcDreamFact:

Two years ago today, TSLA closed at $252. By a mere seven weeks later, on Nov. 5, it had risen $155, or +62%, to that glorious $407 number.

Think how much stronger Tesla is than way back in autumn 2021. It could happen again.....

Sure it could happen, but 2 years ago...the money printer still was going brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!

 

[AudubonB]

Sure it could happen, but 2 years ago...the money printer still was going brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!

Sure, that did happen, but over that same time period, the S&P rose by ____?____%. Take your guess before you read the answer below.










+5%