Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Usain]

Supercharger Revenue
Tesla new revenue stream - destination charger payments go live!

And this revenue stream could become quite massive. I've been thinking about this a lot lately. With NACS as the standard, Tesla has a significant brand advantage when it comes to selling its L2 charging network. Tesla's L2 network should quickly dwarf companies like ChargePoint.

Just think of all the apartment complexes that are ready to install chargers. The complex gets paid. Tesla gets paid. Residents save money over buying gasoline. Everybody wins except the oil companies.

Analysts have talked about how putting everyone onto the Supercharger network won't bring in a lot of revenue for Tesla. But Supercharging is not where the money is. The big money for Tesla will be in apartments, condos, and businesses offering L2 charging. This is where millions of EVs will charge every day. And Tesla will get a nice cut.

Let's throw out some napkin math.

From what I gather, about 25% of US drivers don't live in a place where they could install a private charger. So they would rely on an L2 network like Tesla's. Let's say we are at a point where 25% of the US fleet is electrified. The fleet is currently about 290 million cars. So that's about 18 million who need to charge on L2. And let's say it averages about $5 per day of revenue per car and Tesla has a 50% share of the L2 charging market. Tesla's revenue is split 50/50 with the owner of the property. (Note that I'm assuming the $5 is after paying the utility for the electricity)

So we have:

18,000,000 x 50% x $5 = $22.5 million per day split evenly with the property owners.

We are talking about roughly $8 billion in revenue per year going to Tesla. And it's mostly profit.

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1708278287859057121

 

[wipster]

Elon just liked this tweet that inferred that Kia would most likely be adopting the Tesla NACS supercharging standard. Seems like it's pretty much a done deal that Kia/Hyundai will announce support of NACS.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1707798796644520280

A classic example of "If you build it, they will come."

Now it's time to build some more!

 

[wipster]

Ha! So the lack of a faux grill must have been the problem with disappointing sales eh?

 

[dhanson865]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1708154668495388672

https://twitter.com/x/status/1708154673478168589

So he loves to tout how his end of quarter estimate is less than 5% off or 3% or whatever he can claim. But if you log his predictions through the quarter they vary by more than the few percent accuracy he claims.

Q3 2023 Tesla Delivery Estimates by Troy Teslike on twitter​	​	​
Tweet Date​	Prediction date quoted​	​
08/03/23​	07/22/23​	467K​
08/09/23​	08/02/23​	463K​
08/17/23​	08/09/23​	461K​
08/25/23​	08/17/23​	451K​
09/06/23​	08/29/23​	452K​
09/13/23​	09/06/23​	447K​
09/20/23​	09/13/23​	442K​
09/30/23​	09/30/23​	441K​

 

[RubberToe]

ISW still hasn't posted their daily update since Thursday. Unusual.

Institute for the Study of War

www.understandingwar.org

9/30 is there right now.

 

[SageBrush]

And let's say it averages about $5 per day of revenue per car

I think your model would kill the personal money argument that favors EV adoption, by suggesting that L2 EV charging cost ~ 50¢ a kWh

 

[Stretch2727]

Dang, well don't say I never tried to be unrealistically bullish

It looks like the inventory reduction will be quite large which may lead to some pricing power going into the 4th quarter. This is probably the most bullish thing for Sales >> Production.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It mainly depends on how well 4680 production is going at Austin.

I don't think it does depend on 4680 production. I think it depends on cathode production. Drew told us the cathode plant would begin operation in Q4, and we can see in recent drone flyovers that they are still installing equipment. Tesla isn't going to ramp CT production until they can do so profitably. That means in-sourcing the cathode material for 4680 cells.

Again, Tesla has been telling us for at least 6 months that CT would ramp to volume production in 2024. I see them being well along on that path, but you can't make bricks without straw. Patience.

 

[SPadival]

After the initial hype, the Byd premium sedan the SEAL which matches Teslas spec and pricing, is dying a quick death in China. Tesla is outselling that car 10:1. BYD as expected failed to capture the premium buyers as most of their volume are from cheaper 10-25k cars.

BYD Seal - Sales in China

BYD Seal - Sales in China

chinamobil.ru

OT: Sorry to inform you that you’re getting on a no fly list somewhere for quoting a Chinese site hosted on a Russian domain

 

[JusRelax]

Wow, did anyone else see Steve Westly's interview? Jacob Hilton talks us through it on his youtube channel, but Steve Westly still expects 2M for this year... he is estimating over 650k units in Q4 of this year! That's got to be a stretch goal, right?

 

[SunnylandY]

You need to have a minimum number of wall connectors to participate in the billing system?
I installed a WC at a vacation rental but it's a loner. That's ok, I'm fine making it a complimentary amenity for guests, but would be interested to know if there are future options.

 

[SunnylandY]

I thought Kia/Hyundai recently announced they were going to build their own network and apparently were shying away from NACS

 

[Usain]

I think your model would kill the personal money argument that favors EV adoption, by suggesting that L2 EV charging cost ~ 50¢ a kWh

It's napkin math. And it's a few years in the future. Gas is probably more expensive. You can also play with the electrification rate. I suggested using a point in time where the fleet is at 25% EVs. It will eventually go much higher than that.

So you can play with the numbers. My main point is that Tesla's L2 charging network is potentially worth billions per year in profit. And this is the real long term advantage of everyone going with NACS. It gives a natural advantage to Tesla for its L2 network.

 

[GhostSkater]

I don't think it does depend on 4680 production. I think it depends on cathode production. Drew told us the cathode plant would begin operation in Q4, and we can see in recent drone flyovers that they are still installing equipment. Tesla isn't going to ramp CT production until they can do so profitably. That means in-sourcing the cathode material for 4680 cells.

Again, Tesla has been telling us for at least 6 months that CT would ramp to volume production in 2024. I see them being well along on that path, but you can't make bricks without straw. Patience.

I disagree with that, if they did that it would delay everything even more, besides, they might go directly to the Tesla cathode with Silicon and the Polymer binder that is even more stuff to worry about

It will be a slow ramp there, which makes sense, let's pump 4680s with the lines we are already quite late in ramping to they can make us money and ship the products and trims we can make work, and then when the plant is working we introduce new ones

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wow, did anyone else see Steve Westly's interview? Jacob Hilton talks us through it on his youtube channel, but Steve Westly still expects 2M for this year... he is estimating over 650k units in Q4 of this year! That's got to be a stretch goal, right?

Steve Westly apparently still has not listened to Tesla guidance from the 2022-Q4 Earnings Call back in January. As late as Feb 1st, Steve was still predicting "2, 3, 400-thousand Units this year, moving to something close to 5, 600-hundred thousand next year" (Post #398,146).

Tesla's latest guidance for CT prod. capacity is 375K/yr, which is up from 250K/yr previously. Steve is out of touch. (hint: it's the cathode, Stevode...)

 

[MC3OZ]

I don't think it does depend on 4680 production. I think it depends on cathode production. Drew told us the cathode plant would begin operation in Q4, and we can see in recent drone flyovers that they are still installing equipment. Tesla isn't going to ramp CT production until they can do so profitably. That means in-sourcing the cathode material for 4680 cells.

Again, Tesla has been telling us for at least 6 months that CT would ramp to volume production in 2024. I see them being well along on that path, but you can't make bricks without straw. Patience.

I agree cathode production could be the limiting factor.

My thoughts /observations:-

1. No need to shut the Model Y line down the build the same mix of cars at the same volumes, or at a lower production volume. (But there could be other reasons for the shutdown.)
2. If not 4680 then Tesla might be able to source some other cells from somewhere if only for the duration of Q4.
3. Perhaps Chinese LFP cells in a standard range Model Y made at Austin is one option?
4. After the factory ramp we saw one Model Y body suitable for a structural pack outside the factory, However,, that could just be an old body relocated from inside,

 

[chillerjt]

Since it's the weekend, just wanted to give some info about delivery and service in Texas.

Traded my 2019 Model 3 for a new Y (red, white). Process took about a week and was so easy. Can't imagine ever going back to a dealership. Scheduled a delivery time (2 pm or 5 pm) for Saturday two weeks ago. Showed up to the delivery center and there were about 40-50 people inside the showroom. Tesla employee gave a 5 min speech about getting our license plates in Texas and led us to another room on a red carpet. There were about 30-40 new Tesla parked there (surprisely more Model 3s than Y). Asked if everyone was ready and all the cars started to play the light show with music. Pretty cool and most people were pretty impressed and excited, especially the families with kids. Told us to go to our car and check it out and if everything was fine, we could just drive off. I mentioned to an employee that this is impressive and that I got my M3 with a home delivery in Denver and my wifey got hers picking it up from a showroom. Employeed laughed and said that was a long time ago and this is how they do things now. I'm assuming they have 3 times per day on the weekends that they do this mass delivery. Pretty impressive.

Went to get service for Tesla on Sept 29 and came away with some interesting info. Service guy stated that they were extremely busy but were understaffed since it was delivery time and some employees had to go help. Got me thinking that Tesla is just so effiicient, they move their flexible employees to where they are needed. The service location was where I picked up my wifey car in 2019 but now it was just a service center and not a showroom. Not sure if that was always the plan but Tesla will do whatever it thinks is most efficient such as consolidating all deliveries to one location.

Talked about uber credits and loaners and he stated that they don't reallly give them out like before, they are trying to make money at the service centers (or maybe not lose money).

Talked about the Texas license plates process and he stated since there's still a law that Tesla couldn't sell directly, they had to use a third party since Tesla wasn't a franchisee. Something about getting the paperwork from California and that's why it took so long. My car was built in Austin.

Anyways, there are tons of Teslas in Houston and it seems like there will a lot more in the near future.

 

[MC3OZ]

I disagree with that, if they did that it would delay everything even more, besides, they might go directly to the Tesla cathode with Silicon and the Polymer binder that is even more stuff to worry about

I'm initially expecting fairly conventional high nickel cathodes, perhaps single crystal cathodes.

I think the cathode plant and the lithium refinery are all about ramping to higher 4680 production volumes, supporting Austin, Mexico and perhaps Sparks.

I think Silicon is in the anode and from a recent Jeff Dahn video that might be Silicon Carbide.

If they are using Silicon Carbide, then scaling the production of that material might be another issue.

 

[JusRelax]

Steve Westly apparently still has not listened to Tesla guidance from the 2022-Q4 Earnings Call back in January. As late as Feb 1st, Steve was still predicting "2, 3, 400-thousand Units this year, moving to something close to 5, 600-hundred thousand next year" (Post #398,146).

Tesla's latest guidance for CT prod. capacity is 375K/yr, which is up from 250K/yr previously. Steve is out of touch. (hint: it's the cathode, Stevode...)

Darn it, I was hoping that he was basing his 650k estimate off of an estimate that Tesla had provided to analysts recently or something. Wishful thinking, I suppose.