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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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The stock is going to do whatever it does. But this is a bad miss that is deserving of a red day. Let's hope Elon keeps everything nice and tight. I know "deliveries" start in November but I would guess we don't get specs on anything till 2024. These "deliveries" are going to go to employees. Maybe we get a MKBHD review in December?
 
ASP : Average sales price
Total Run-Rate: quarterly deliveries x 4
Total Min IC: Minimum installed capacity

Cybertruck's 125k IC and Shanghai IC 200k+ IC got added this quarter

Screenshot 2023-10-18 at 1.13.12 PM.png
 
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I do hope Tesla hasn't fired all of its price reduction weapons a bit too soon. 2023 was, economically, a pretty good year. 2024 could be a lot worse (note: my crystal ball is as bad as everyone else's), and they could need those triggers even more. Tough to call this report anything but what it is - a tough quarter for Tesla across the board. I am HOPING that once they saw the shutdowns were taking longer than perhaps the anticipated, they may have "pulled forward" some activities to just jam all the "bad news" under their control into Q3. As an example, the Texas shutdown for most of September seems to have been a surprise - maybe they said "Screw it, Q3 is already hosed. Let's do a bunch in this quarter and not spread the pain out.". Having said that, I'm not seen a lot on the vehicle growth front to get excited about here (underline is mine - this will feed the "busted growth" narrative...which may be accurate for much of 2024)

US: California, Nevada and Texas
At Gigafactory Texas, we began pilot production of the Cybertruck, which remains on track for initial deliveries this year. We are expecting the Model Y production rate in Texas to grow very gradually from its current level as we ramp additional supply chain needs in a cost-efficient manner. Production of our higher density 4680 cell is progressing as planned, and we continue building capacity for cathode production and lithium refining in the U.S.

China: Shanghai
Other than scheduled downtime in Q3, our Shanghai factory has been successfully running near full capacity for several quarters, and we do not expect a meaningful increase in weekly production run rate. Giga Shanghai remains our main export hub.

Europe: Berlin-Brandenburg
Model Y remained the best-selling vehicle of any kind in Europe year-to-date (based on the latest available data as of August). Similar to Texas, further production ramp of Model Y will be gradual