Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AndrewZ]

It might be premature to declare victory based on the AH movements so far

Guidance is what will dictate I think

 

[TN Mtn Man]

I think most will see 125k as a bad number, but I think it's pretty good if it's next year. The Apple tracker person predicted that number.

As a benchmark...just how many Hummer EVs did GM sell the first year?

Or Ford Lightnings, at 70k for all of '23? And that was just a tweak of the F-150.

125k for the first year of production, using a radically new assembly and fabrication process sounds pretty impressive to me.

 

[joh01652]

The next chance this stock has to go up is November 30th. Flat or down until then, IMO.

IMO I see a great chance to see TSLA at $300+ sometime before year end. What other OEM is adding such large amounts of cash to their bottom lines in these tough economic times? What other OEMs are spooling up production (EV, battery storage or otherwise) as quickly and economically feasible as Tesla? With energy, AI, supercharging and other services becoming increasingly "meaningful contributors to profitability" what other company is structured like Tesla? As far as I can tell most OEMs are in the process of literally going bankrupt. Where's that investment money going to flow to?

All the FUD/criticisms/concerns directed daily at Tesla are just as applicable to practically any business out there. But Tesla has something that others don't: a growing pile of cash, healthy free cash flow, and a solid business plan for the future. One can't say that about many other businesses.

This statement from the slide deck says it all: "Our cost of goods sold per vehicle decreased to ~$37,500 in Q3. While production cost at our new factories remained higher than our established factories, we have implemented necessary upgrades in Q3 to enable further unit cost reductions. We continue to believe that an industry leader needs to be a cost leader." AND THIS: "We are planning to grow production as quickly as possible in alignment with the 50% CAGR target we began guiding to in early 2021. In some years we may grow faster and some we may grow slower, depending on a number of factors. For 2023, we expect to remain ahead of the long-term 50% CAGR with around 1.8 million vehicles for the year."

 

[Unpilot]

Sigh .....audio problems to start.

 

[thx1139]

Elon bragging about FSD to start isnt good start IMHO. Simply because Wall Street doesnt put value into it.

 

[juanmedina]

Elon stating the obvious.... there goes the stock

A year to 18 months for the Cybertruck to be significant cash generator.

 

[BornToFly]

And there goes Elon tanking the stock

 

[AndrewZ]

Elon coming right out with the realities and truths, stuff that he has been saying for some time but that many seemingly can't hear

 

[M|S|M MYP]

And there goes Elon tanking the stock

Knew it was just a matter of time....

 

[betstarship]

A small but not trivial correction: 2021 deliveries were 1.48% below installed capacity, not 14.8%.

Not sure how much that affects your analysis.

Your 2020/2021 number is off. It is 1.48% not 14.8%.

Thanks! It was on the spreadsheet too, changed the post

 

[winfield100]

This one we can all hope works out well for the real investors. Given history we really need to wait until all the appeals run out and when penalized, the entails are more than a few minutes profits. Until they hit custodians and large brokers as well as only a symbolic few nothing will really change. Still, that is good news!

@Hock1 @unk45

there is an intriguing blip further down in the article about ""short squeeze" candidates with TSLA being #1
--------------snip-----------------------

1. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA)

Tesla , the trailblazing electric car company, has consistently attracted the attention of short-sellers. For three consecutive months up to August, Tesla was the most shorted among large-cap U.S. stocks, as per data from a securities lending firm. Short-sellers bet on stock prices falling, and with Tesla's share price often exhibiting volatility, it presents both opportunities and challenges.;;;;;;;
----------snip--------------

 

[cab]

Elon emphasizing the "immense" work needed to get Cybertruck scaled at price people can afford....year to 18 months before it contributes to positive cash flow.

It seems the whole truck is a little like falcon wing doors on the X...

 

[MikeC]

Remembering that Hertz rally to ATH in 2021 - wasn’t that the first and last time Elon wasn’t on a call?

 

[traxila]

Elon to the shortie's rescue!!

LOL, did he really need to say any of that? All he had to do was say that car looks great and it is coming on November 30.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Remembering that Hertz rally to ATH in 2021 - wasn’t that the first and last time Elon wasn’t on a call?

Elon takes "undersell" to the next level.

 

[GhostSkater]

I prefer that than a certain Mary "We are the leader, trust us, 25 EVs by 2020" Bara

 

[Unpilot]

Can you tell when EM started and stopped talking?

 

[cliff harris]

250,000 cybertrucks a year by 2025 is not bad TBH. Especially if it makes the next gen/model 2 easier to develop due to shared tech.

 

[bkp_duke]

Line 2 - cybertruck cell (10% more density)

Line 1 - old cell, to be converted soon to CT cell

20 mil cells from Line 1 to date (and it is the primary 4680 line for Tesla, more than Kato), and increased 40% QoQ, with 40% reduction in scrap rate.

 

[GhostSkater]

Line 2 - cybertruck cell (10% more density)

Line 1 - old cell, to be converted soon to CT cell

20 mil cells from Line 1 to date (and it is the primary 4680 line for Tesla, more than Kato), and increased 40% QoQ, with 40% reduction in scrap rate.

Also phase 2 with additional four 4680 lines coming online late 2024, this will be 200 GWh of installed capacity on Giga Texas

Kato as expected will be always R&D, right now going into upgrades testing gen 3 celss