Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

I haven't seen those posts (I don't facebook ), but hopefully the authors have specific trailers in mind if they think they are doing useful guesstimating. I always see people demanding to know the towing range of EV trucks, but not realizing that the trailer itself is going to play a huge role.

The added cost of towing will always come down to:

• How heavy the trailer is (combined with the friction in the axles and the tire rolling resistance)
• The aerodynamic size and shape of the trailer
• How the aerodynamic shape of the vehicle interplays with the aerodynamic shape of the trailer to make the total drag when towing
• Conditions along the route (speed, wind, hill climbing, etc.)

I'm fairly confident I could get a super-light trailer and attach a few vertical pieces of plywood mounted with the full 4x8' shape facing the wind (acting like a parachute) and create a trailer weighing about 500 lbs that would absolutely ruin the range of the tow vehicle at 70 mph.

Heck, you could even "tow" 20 pounds actual parachute behind your car (like the way drag racers stop), and destroy your range at high speed.

Likewise, I could get a sturdy flatbed trailer, load it down with 10,000 lbs of steel plates laying flat so the whole thing is only a couple feet high, add an aerodynamic cover and grease up the axles, over-inflate the tires, and drive along at 50 mph on a flat road and end up with a range not too far off of EPA ratings.

Real world trailers aren't going to be at quite those extremes...but there's going to be a big difference in the aerodymic shape and weight profiles of whatever trailer a given user plans to tow, and therefore big differences in the impact to range.

In addition we should fully expect to see some manufacturer bring modular upgrades for existing trailers that include a battery, motor, axle and springs package.

Drop the trailer's existing axle and springs, then install the appropriately sized replacement e-axle(s) kit. Re-tag the trailer for any adjustment for effect of additional weight to the GVWR, and roll.

This would work well for utility and camper trailers paired with an EV, though wouldn't address any aerodynamic problems the existing trailer might bring.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Elon is feeling significant pressure coming from multiple directions, IMO

• Interest rates are relatively high, and more importantly, are driving buyers payments higher faster than Tesla can cut prices, slowing demand at a time when his factories are increasing supply.
• Tesla seems to be lowering prices in a vacuum...Who else is cutting prices anywhere? How ridiculous is a $5 tea/soda at lunch? All my utilities / bills UP. Insurance UP. Every time I look, some new expense in my household goes up. And a lot (%). I don't know what numbers they're using, but inflation seems to still be relentless to me.
• UAW strike must be putting new labor pressures on Tesla at the same time Tesla is having to reduce prices to balance supply.
• He's been critical of the US government frivolous spending and yet it is ignored, continues at record pace, and isn't helping inflation either.
• 2 wars raging in Ukraine and the Middle East
• Mexico seemingly was pushing back on all the needed infrastructure to support the Monterey factory. Admittedly, not sure this is true or FUD.
• Twitter / X is constant weight over our CEO

I'm sure there's more, but I've made my point(s). The economy seems teetering and it could get worse from here. Let's hope something changes for the better.

All good and valid questions. I think another one that will impact Tesla is the effect on the competition. Tesla has the cash to weather a downturn, and very little debt. Tesla I would say also has a little more affluent customer base than many auto manufacturers, especially US based ones. GM, Ford and Stelantis survive off the profits from their (highly overpriced) pickup trucks, and to an extent truck-based SUVs. A lot of the people I know that buy pickups at prices competitive with Teslas (even the S and X) really don't have that kind of discretionary income and are likely to be very hard-hit with an increase in rates. I fear that pickup sales, especially among the big 3 and Toyota...will be cratering, if they haven't already.

So where does this end up? Hard to say, all depends on just how bad the economy gets (assuming it gets worse at all). My personal guess is that we're going to see a repeat of '09-'10, and that the big 3 will be hit HARD. Tesla won't necessarily be unscathed, but IMO the impact will be far less, especially as they continue to lower prices and offer EVs priced more similarly with "mainstream" ICE cars (Rav-4, CRV, Equinox). I question if GM will survive and what Toyota will look like when we're finished.

 

[thx1139]

On that last point, people are reporting in the UK and Ireland thread of this forum that orders they've placed for the Highland, have estimated delivery dates in December

Still not even announced in the United States.

 

[H Mak]

Still not even announced in the United States.

UK

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I haven't seen those posts (I don't facebook ), but hopefully the authors have specific trailers in mind if they think they are doing useful guesstimating. I always see people demanding to know the towing range of EV trucks, but not realizing that the trailer itself is going to play a huge role.

The added cost of towing will always come down to:

• How heavy the trailer is (combined with the friction in the axles and the tire rolling resistance)
• The aerodynamic size and shape of the trailer
• How the aerodynamic shape of the vehicle interplays with the aerodynamic shape of the trailer to make the total drag when towing
• Conditions along the route (speed, wind, hill climbing, etc.)

I'm fairly confident I could get a super-light trailer and attach a few vertical pieces of plywood mounted with the full 4x8' shape facing the wind (acting like a parachute) and create a trailer weighing about 500 lbs that would absolutely ruin the range of the tow vehicle at 70 mph.

Heck, you could even "tow" 20 pounds actual parachute behind your car (like the way drag racers stop), and destroy your range at high speed.

Likewise, I could get a sturdy flatbed trailer, load it down with 10,000 lbs of steel plates laying flat so the whole thing is only a couple feet high, add an aerodynamic cover and grease up the axles, over-inflate the tires, and drive along at 50 mph on a flat road and end up with a range not too far off of EPA ratings.

Real world trailers aren't going to be at quite those extremes...but there's going to be a big difference in the aerodymic shape and weight profiles of whatever trailer a given user plans to tow, and therefore big differences in the impact to range.

Yah. Those of us who tow with an EV know all that and can figure it out from there. But the size of the battery is key for us to make an educated estimate on how far we can tow our trailers. Just wondering if anyone had seen a real number on battery size.

Cheers.

 

[MC3OZ]

It is encouraging that other EV’s having trouble indicates demand concerns don’t apply specifically to Tesla.

But if interest rates are the primary demand killer, they should apply just as much to luxury ICE vehicles. Are we seeing this?

Here is the YouTube video that was the source for my comment:-

Why EVs Are Piling Up At Dealerships In The U.S.​

The Tesla price cuts are one reason why EVs for other brands are piling up at dealerships, if the price cuts were totally unnecessary every car maker would be selling every EV they make.

Advertising might have helped, but perhaps the other car makers tried advertising. Tesla uses price a the primary means of balancing supply and demand because they know it works.

Advertising, specifically advertising the price is a god idea and should happen.

Yesterday my car needed serious service for the first tine in 4 years, it panned out like this.. Drive to the service centre 1 hour 45 mins, kill time while service in completed 5 hours, drive back home 2 hours 15 mins (Friday evening traffic leaving a big city).

So I had a lot of thinking tome and was able to rationalise the earnings call, doesn't mean I'm right, just means there might be a rational explanation.

While Lithium prices and other raw material prices have dropped recently, it takes a while for those reductions and any other costs savings Tesla makes to flow through the system,

While Tesla did a good job of achieving cost reductions, the price cuts had an inevitable impact on the bottom line. Elon labouring the point on interest rates and campaigning for interest rate reductions was intended to explain the cost reductions and the resulting short term financial impact's. My refection on this was that Elon had to give an explanation for the price cuts,

The one line from the earnings call that stuck in my mind was when someone (Lars?), said "There is plenty of room at Austin".

Combined with excepts from the book suggesting the team is building a pilot line for the Gen3 car at Austin, I'm increasingly convinced that is happening.

So why wasn't the Gen3 pilot line at Austin mentioned on the call?

Perhaps because it isn't happening, but my reflection was that early mention of this line might have the effect of Osborning Model 3/Y at the worst possible time.

I still think that factory in Mexico is partially intended to serve the South American market, and Tesla has began hiring to set up branches in some of those countries. But if the high interest rate environment continues it makes more sense to initially build Gen3 cars at Austin and Berlin especially if Gen3 car built at Austin qualifies for IRA credits.

They also mentioned that there is plenty of land at Austin and we know an expansion at Berlin is going through the approvals process.

New equipment is still be shifted inside that the factory at Austin for production expansion, some of that is 4680 production, but some of it probably relates to vehicle assembly lines.

More production capacity for Model Y and/or Cybertruck coming on line at Austin sometime in 2024/2025 would not be a surprise.

My other reflection that is when the Megapack factories are fully ramped and contributing to earnings, that might give Tesla additional confidence to proceed with factory expansions.

But for the period of high interest rates, Tesla is mostly dependent of Model 3/Y production and sales, to negotiate that period, and fund the building of Gen3 factories.

 

[Artful Dodger]

FWTW, Meat Kevin has been...

This is where you'd usually say 'couldn't happen to a nicer guy'... Butt knot ami.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Weird twist to having an efficient design: An efficient EV will take a bigger apparent range hit when towing...

Hah, that's some "feature". I remember one sales guy from back in 1976: "This here pickup truck gets 8 mph, loaded-or-empty!" [true story]

 

[Artful Dodger]

Sweet! Now let's cram a pack that size, or close, into a new roadster and weeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!

People laff, dey tease, dey say neva-eva. But Drew told us on Wednesday that Kato Rd is retooling right now to build Cybercell v3... You know, right across from that PLAID place.

Roaster+SpaceX: turning the nearly impossible into merely late.

Cheers!

P.S. a software uncorked' Model S Plaid has run 8.75 sec in the Qtr Mile. That's equivalent to 1,500 hp from an ICE drag car of the same weight. And that's with the stock 98 KWh pack with Panasonic 18650s...

 

[MC3OZ]

People laff, dey tease, dey say neva-eva. But Drew told us on Wednesday that Kato Rd is retooling right now to build Cybercell v3... You know, right across from that PLAID place.

Roaster+SpaceX: turning the nearly impossible into merely late.

Cheers!

P.S. a software uncorked' Model S Plaid has run 8.75 sec in the Qtr Mile. That's equivalent to 1,500 hp from an ICE drag car of the same weight. And that's with the stock 98 KWh pack with Panasonic 18650s...

Cybertruck, Model S/X and Roadster are the vehicles that would benefit the most from energy density improvements.

 

[madodel]

Got this email from Tesla today that I can transfer my lifetime free supercharging to a new S, X or Y without having to trade in my Sig X. Fantasy I know, but wish they'd do this for the CT.

View attachment 983897

When I told my wife all of a sudden a light went off in her head. She was going to take my Sig X when she finally gets rid of her damn Lexus, mostly because of the free supercharging even though I told her it only amounts to about $500 a year, but she has always liked the S. So maybe she'll be getting a new S and transfer my lifetime free charging. Not sure she can deal with the stupid decision to remove all the stalks though. And then what do I do with my wonderful Sig X? I guess keep it to drive when the CT is overkill.

 

[GOVA]

Just drove by a Tesla Store and through its parking lots.

The place was packed to the brim. Plenty of folks inside and lots of folks outside checking out cars and doing test drives. Have never seen this place even at 50% of today's numbers. It looked very busy inside and outside.

Don't fall for the media FUD folks. Tesla is doing well.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Tesla had a cameo on Formula 1 coverage today.

Formula 1 US Grand Prix is this weekend at the Circuit of The Americas raceway, which is <10 miles away from Austin Texas Gigafactory. It is the war of the World, high interest rates, high inflation and yet 440,000 spectators were in the stands for qualifying today which saw Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, take the pole position. Hundreds of millions more (including me, and I hate ICE) watching this event around the World. Watching fast ICE cars go in circles. Cars that if designed as EVs would win every time. The fixation on ICE is slow melting. Sprint race is Saturday, Race on Sunday.

 

[ninpb]

Tesla had a cameo on Formula 1 coverage today.

Formula 1 US Grand Prix is this weekend at the Circuit of The Americas raceway, which is <10 miles away from Austin Texas Gigafactory. It is the war of the World, high interest rates, high inflation and yet 440,000 spectators were in the stands for qualifying today which saw Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, take the pole position. Hundreds of millions more (including me, and I hate ICE) watching this event around the World. Watching fast ICE cars go in circles. Cars that if designed as EVs would win every time. The fixation on ICE is slow melting. Sprint race is Saturday, Race on Sunday.

View attachment 983986
View attachment 983983

If Austin would have been a night race like Vegas, Tesla could do some trolling/marketing with their drones.

 

[AudubonB]

That must be one durned mountainous Grand Prix, 'cuz they placed it right next to a jinuwine Swiss Alpine Village.

 

[chiller]

Sweet! Now let's cram a pack that size, or close, into a new roadster and weeeeee!!!

You called?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Cybertruck, Model S/X and Roadster are the vehicles that would benefit the most from energy density improvements.

CT and Semi, according to Tesla Battery Day Slide #48

• IRON BASED: Long Cycle Life
• NICKEL + MANGANESE: Long Range
• HIGH NICKEL: Mass Sensitive

I think Tesla should add one more cathode to the product range:

• SINGLE-CRYSTAL SILICON: Racing and Aviation

Single crystal Ni-containing cathodes - A conversation with Prof. Jeff Dahn | Nickelinstitute.org blog (Jan 13, 2021)

Imagine a Roaster with a 800v 200KWh structural pack that weighs the same as a Model S Plaid, lays down 1.21MW of power, recharges in 15 min at a MegaCharger, and the bty lasts 10,000 cycles. Yeah, let's go there! Let's do that!

Cheers!

 

[dhanson865]

better look at the ballistics tested cybertruck

 

[betstarship]

better look at the ballistics tested cybertruck

View attachment 984029

apparently cant handle a ball throw, but no prob with a machine gun in the RC candidates / production

 

[InTheMiddle]

apparently cant handle a ball throw, but no prob with a machine gun in the RC candidates / production

Appears that they were only targeting the steel side panels this time, not the glass. If they had aimed a bit higher, they might have hit the Tesla Armor Glass, described on the Tesla website only as "Ultra-strong glass and polymer-layered composite can absorb and redirect impact force for improved performance and damage tolerance." - so no mention of bulletproof glass on the website as it approaches launch.