Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
FTFY ;)

With this news, I suppose Tesla probably should go ahead and build a second CT line to take up the slack.

Someday soon, Ford will be complaining about how customers are unwilling to pay a premium for an ICE vehicle.
At this point, I want Tesla to make a regular looking truck along with the Cybertruck and kick the crap out of the others.
 
Ford to pull 12B of future EV investments due to reduced demand

Wait... this was reported about 2 hrs ago, is this a mini rally on the news? All that wishful Lightning competition is gone? 🤣
All hail CyberTruck!

1698362377993.png
 
Well, to see that EVs are now a political argument, and show this by the data, it's definitely newsworthy.
It means that everytime you read EV news (pros or cons) you should take this frame into mind.
People are so ignorant about EVs that at least recognizing it's a partisan issue helps, IMHO.
I don’t understand. You’re speaking to someone that has no political reference points whatsoever. I’m interested in the individual topics, not which party a person belongs to/follows/associates themselves with. Politics and the like is never a subject I engage with others about. I’ll leave the room if even a hint comes out of someone’s mouth. Religion is another one I avoid. People lose their ever loving minds when talking about those. They go to war over them.

I’ve never assumed a person has made any decision based on political affiliation or leaning. Like ever. The last person who argued the validity of EVs with me, not once did I think - ‘Ah, you’re a Republican’. In hindsight, there’s a better than average chance he is, but I don’t believe it’s relevant.

My only thought after pointing at my car with over 100,000 miles on it and debunking all the bs he was repeating from media sources was, ‘Ah, you’re an ignoramus with no desire to educate yourself nor are you open to learning.’

Should I now make a chart that correlates ignorance and intellectual laziness as a Republican thing?

For those saying EVs are political, thanks for buying the bs fed to you, for self-fulling prophecy, and continuing to divide people which only serves to add fuel to the fire.
 
The Q3 Tesla Energy numbers add credibility to the arguments that Megapacks will have strong margins for a while.

During the Q1 call, we heard that mid-20% gross margin was the target for energy storage and Tesla hoped to get there later this year. As of Q3, they already succeeded.

Zachary Kirkhorn
Sorry. Just one other thing I wanted to mention on [energy storage] margin. While we're not providing specific guidance there, I mean, just to set expectations of where we think this business will go in terms of margins, probably generally in the ballpark of what we've seen historically on the vehicle business. We generally look to mid-20% gross margins for any program that we launch. And so we're not there yet on this business, but that's what we're working towards.

Elon Musk
We're hopeful to get there later this year, but that's not a promise. That's an aspiration.

To simplify, I'll estimate that Tesla Solar broke even with revenue/cost at $50M in Q3 (about $1M per MW) and subtract that out.

Rev ($B)$ 1.509
Cost ($B)$ 1.128
Gross Margin %
25.2%​
Storage deployed (GWh)
4.0​
Rev per kWh$ 377
Cost per kWh$ 282
Gross profit per kWh$ 95

Based on the revenue per kWh being around $377, we can deduce that most of the volume was Megapacks, not Powerwalls.

Looking ahead, a downside is that Megapack price was cut in August by about 22%.

On the other hand, Tesla achieved this Q3 result with Lathrop still operating at partial capacity and while still learning how to mass produce Megapacks efficiently. Tesla also still has limited in-house LFP cell manufacturing. Consequently, it's reasonable to expect prices to continue dropping. Finally and crucially, we must remember that Megapacks make money not only on initial sale and installation, but also on recurring software and maintenance services that likely have better profit margins than the hardware itself.

Therefore, it's likely that Tesla can continue to maintain mid-20% margins as guided, if not somewhat better than that. This profitability expectation for the next few years is mostly a result of US federal government subsidies from the IRA. The customers are getting a 30% discount as a tax credit, and Tesla is getting manufacturing tax credits.
 
Fossil fuel wins again - is this part of UAW deal ?
Nah. Just cause and effect. Because of the UAW deal, the big three can no longer afford to invest in EVs. It was always going to be a tough road, even with the IRA. Now it's looking nearly impossible. I'm afraid that they have no other choice but to milk the ICE business as long as they can and pray for a miracle.

The ironic thing is that Stellantis has been pursuing that strategy all along. Now they look like the smart ones.
 
Lots of extra money coming to Tesla in future quarters from other OEMs whose fleet fuel economy average is going to plummet from their pullback on EVs…
Exactly. VW and Ford will need to buy more credits from Tesla. Apparently it's cheaper vs making their own EVs. Short-term fix and will only so slightly postpone their demise. Or government bailouts...
 
No one is buying EV’s from the big 3 as they have Osborned themselves with the publicity around moving to NACS. Word has gotten out on just how dismal the non-NACS DC fast charging infrastructure is in the US. Very few people are willing to spend $$ on a car that they can’t reliably drive more than 100 miles from home. So they are waiting for all the 2024 NACS adapters and built-in NACS capable cars in 2025. All this assumes the big three can spin their EV lines back up after being idle for months/years.
 
No one is buying EV’s from the big 3 as they have Osborned themselves with the publicity around moving to NACS. Word has gotten out on just how dismal the non-NACS DC fast charging infrastructure is in the US. Very few people are willing to spend $$ on a car that they can’t reliably drive more than 100 miles from home. So they are waiting for all the 2024 NACS adapters and built-in NACS capable cars in 2025. All this assumes the big three can spin their EV lines back up after being idle for months/years.

Do you see it? Batteries. 2025. As far as the eyes can see.

 
Hello. My son is looking to purchase his first car, and wants a Tesla. He found a 2019 M3 LR with 70k miles for $26k. Does this seem like a fair price? He works remotely and does not drive a lot.

If this is not appropriate for this forum let me know where to post it, please.
Since you have asked - don't buy a car with 70K miles. Just get him a brand new Model 3 RWD, get the rebate(s) and you will not pay much more.