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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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What employees see is that their stock options are underwater / haven't gone anywhere in years. As a result they don't assign any personal monetary value to them.

Or as my young friend thinks - it's great with low share prices since he not only get his bonus shares but uses some of his pay to buy even more. Not all Tesla workers are old timers!
 
Tell Mr Powell I have a solution to inflation. Notice the correlation between CO2 emissions and inflation.
If we curb the emissions... we fix inflation! :D


Not crazy. Ok, the correlation is crazy but the solution is real.
If one accepts Master plan part 3, decarbonisation lowers the cost of everything. Transport especially gets cheaper, swapping oil for electricity. Electricity incurs a transition cost but then provides dirt cheap energy for 25yrs (panels), 15yrs (batteries).

Obvious to this forum and TSLA investors. I’ve invested partly on the basis that no force can hold back this disruption. Simultaneously living (whole of economy) without fossils is unthinkable to the average person in the street. Often feels like waiting for TSLA to surge is the same as waiting for Joe Average to realise that save-the-world is also save-your-wallet.

edit: Also why given choice between price cut and ad campaign I’ll take the former. Bring on this day of reckoning. 👊
 
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Do Tesla's factory workers get options or do they get a guaranteed stock grant like RSU's and/or stock purchase plan?

If they aren't getting options then there is no danger of being underwater. But there is a danger of missing out on a sharp rise in value.
I think it depends on your position. Most employees will get RSUs and can utilize the employee stock purchase program.

First purchase with ESPP is Sept 1.
15% discount to lowest closing price on Feb 26th or Sept 1st.
Feb 27th closing price $207
Sept 1st closing price $245
So in the latest round employees purchased at $207 ×.85= $175.95

Next purchase is March 1st.
Aug 31st closing price $258
If March is higher than $258 then employees will purchase at $258 ×.85= $219.30
 
Toyota upped there full year profit guidance to $26.1 Billion, after recording a record 5.2 million in vehicle sales through the first 6 months of its financial year.

It also lowered its projected full year EV sales to 123k, from 202k.

So much financial resources, so little effort into full electrification.
Sad EV sales projection, but Toyota's results are maybe giving $TSLA a lift AH? In any instance, we will def take it!
 
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IMO, all Elon needs to say internally is "Be patient, won't be long now..." and the employees would all know that the stock will move soon. That's their compensation. If I heard that, I'd be OK as a Tesla line worker. All part of the mission, plus they all know how good the products are compared to the other non-competition.
The actual net benefit of the employee ownership plan, as I understand it, is a 15% discount and being able to buy at the low price within a given period.

If workers can theoretically unionize and get significantly more than 15% higher wages, why wouldn’t they do that and just buy stock directly themselves? There will be a point where the net benefit of the ownership plan is eroded and potentially more than fully negated if the pay disparity is that big.
 
So spent some time fighting EV FUD today and got a new crazy statistic thrown at me. Did you know that the US grid needs 700% more electricity to support a conversion to all EVs.
I don't remember any facts so I never engage... also I don't like talking to people, especially those that are coming with those biases but I might just start ... to let bard do the talking for me right on the spot. It does do more harm for the mission letting them go home without questioning their "facts".

A few questions I just asked it.

can the current us electric grid support 100% ev​

Yes, the current US electric grid can support 100% electric vehicles (EVs). However, it will require some upgrades and changes to the way the grid is operated.

According to a study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the US electricity grid has enough capacity to support 100% EVs by 2030. However, the study also found that the grid will need to be upgraded to accommodate the increased demand. This includes building new transmission lines, upgrading substations, and adding more renewable energy generation.
....

does manufacturing and use of EV create more co2 than gas cars?​


The manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) does create more CO2 than the manufacturing of gas cars. This is due to the energy-intensive process of manufacturing EV batteries. However, over the lifetime of the vehicle, EVs produce significantly less CO2 than gas cars.

A study by the Union of Concerned Scientists found that the average EV produces about 40% less CO2 than a comparable gas car over its lifetime. This number is even higher in areas with cleaner electricity grids.

Another study by the International Council on Clean Transportation found that EVs produce less CO2 than gas cars in every country in the world, even when accounting for the manufacturing and charging emissions.

Overall, EVs are better for the environment than gas cars. While the manufacturing of EVs does create more CO2, EVs produce significantly less CO2 over their lifetime.

...

----

You do have to verify Bard. I've had it straight up make up stuff for something as easy as giving me the matches for week 1 NFL.
 
The actual net benefit of the employee ownership plan, as I understand it, is a 15% discount and being able to buy at the low price within a given period.

If workers can theoretically unionize and get significantly more than 15% higher wages, why wouldn’t they do that and just buy stock directly themselves? There will be a point where the net benefit of the ownership plan is eroded and potentially more than fully negated if the pay disparity is that big.
Any employees working for Tesla since 2018 have at least a 15X on the value of any long term shares they still hold.

This process self-selects employees prepared to build the company and hang around for the long term over those who just want to make a few extra dollars this year.

The process that mostly got us to the current share price is:-
  1. High interest rates slowed demand.
  2. Tesla cut prices in response to slower demand.
  3. As a result of lower Tesla prices, inventory for many other EV brands started pilling up at dealerships.
  4. Other brands cut prices to move inventory but were often making a loss or a bigger loss on every EV sold,
  5. Other brands realised they needed to adopt NACS and find cost reductions to have competitive EVs.
  6. As a result of 4. and 5. other brands decided to "go slow" on EVs while they sort things out.
  7. Due to the "go slow" and the inventory pile up other brands needed an excuse, the excuse was reduced demand for EVs,
  8. The media and the more gullible members of the public bought into the reduced EV demand narrative.
  9. As a result of the "go slow" prices for batteries and battery raw materials started to drop.
Employees should know what to expect for Q4, there should be less factory downtime and higher production, in particular Model 3 Highland should sell well. So I expect higher Q4 production, Tesla has already started increasing some prices. More of the price reductions in batteries and other areas should start to flow though. The Cybertruck should have an impressive debut.

Any employees who are short term thinkers, are not well informed about the company, and are not patient enough to hang around for the share price to improve are welcome to leave.
 
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Any employees working for Tesla since 2018 have at least a 15X on the value of any long term shares they still hold.

This process self-selects employees prepared to build the company and hang around for the long term over those who just want to make a few extra dollars this year.

The process that mostly got us to the current share price is:-
  1. High interest rates slowed demand.
  2. Tesla cut prices in response to slower demand.
  3. As a result of lower Tesla prices, inventory for many other EV brands started pilling up at dealerships.
  4. Other brands cut prices to move inventory but were often making a loss or a bigger loss on every EV sold,
  5. Other brands realised they needed to adopt NACS and find cost reductions to have competitive EVs.
  6. As a result of 4. and 5. other brands decided to "go slow" on EVs while they sort things out.
  7. Due to the "go slow" and the inventory pile up other brands needed an excuse, the excuse was reduced demand for EVs,
  8. The media and the more gullible members of the public bought into the reduced EV demand narrative.
  9. As a result of the "go slow" prices for batteries and battery raw materials started to drop.
Employees should know what to expect for Q4, there should be less factory downtime and higher production, in particular Model 3 Highland should sell well. So I expect higher Q4 production, Tesla has already started increasing some prices. More of the price reductions in batteries and other areas should start to flow though. The Cybertruck should have an impressive debut.

Any employees who are short term thinkers, are not well informed about the company, and are not patient enough to hang around for the share price to improve are welcome to leave.
I’m just saying if an employee can get, purely as an example, 40% more money in straight regular income from a union offer, they can buy stock themselves and the increase in regular pay could be worth more than the benefit of locking in a low price for the period and a 15% discount on that price — the former being a bit harder to quantify but there can also be perceived benefits to getting cold hard cash rather than stock options when it comes to immediate expenses etc.

Thats what I imagine the argument would be. Tesla has surely already been working on what numbers would be necessary to combat that sort of argument.
 
I’m just saying if an employee can get, purely as an example, 40% more money in straight regular income from a union offer, they can buy stock themselves and the increase in regular pay could be worth more than the benefit of locking in a low price for the period and a 15% discount on that price — the former being a bit harder to quantify but there can also be perceived benefits to getting cold hard cash rather than stock options when it comes to immediate expenses etc.

Thats what I imagine the argument would be. Tesla has surely already been working on what numbers would be necessary to combat that sort of argument.
They could, but would they? I think it's doubtful because there are always some life expenses that come up.
 
The Big Three say they can cut costs to compensate for meeting the UAW demands. Which seems to me to go without saying. Tesla has demonstrated how much leaner they can operate.

I'll believe it when I see it with them, as doing so will require massive collaboration between their suppliers, or, vertical integration on a huge scale.


From the article:

“We are expecting minimal issues with factories getting back up to speed,” he said, adding that “inventory levels at dealerships held up reasonably well during the strike.”

Which I read as, "Getting back up to speed will be easy, because we didn't sell any cars and inventory held up well during the strike"
Honestly-not sure what other way there is to read a statement like that!