Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kbM3]

Starship launch scheduled in 43 minutes at 7 AM central time. Does anyone know the best way to watch?

my preference would be a SpaceX feed on YouTube, rather than Twitter, so I can watch on my TV.

 

[JusRelax]

Starship launch scheduled in 43 minutes at 7 AM central time. Does anyone know the best way to watch?

my preference would be a SpaceX feed on YouTube, rather than Twitter, so I can watch on my TV.

Livestream has started on X:

https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1dRKZEWQvrXxB

Second attempt at the first significant step towards humanity becomaing a spacefaring species!

Mod: Fun stuff, and worthy of watching, but….

Posts subsequent to this one have been moved to where they belong, which is this:

SpaceX Starship - Integrated Flight Test #2 - Starbase TX

Update: Launch now scheduled for 7AM CST Saturday November 18, 2023. Launch Date: November 18 Launch Window: 7:00am CST, 8:00am EST, 5:00am PST (20 minute window) Launch site: LC-1 - Starbase, Boca Chica Beach, Texas Core Booster Recovery: Expended in Gulf Starship Recovery: Water landing...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

I sought evidence to support my hunch...At first all data appeared to contradict my hunch, because it showed how much better legacy automotive is doing with YOY numbers suggesting that they are crushing it in spite of interest rates.

If you want to do this analysis properly, you need to estimate:

(change in manufacturer reported sales) - (change in dealer inventory)​

c.f. "channel stuffing". ie: the legacy auto industry is not healthy..

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Seems like Megapack should be ramping up big time, significantly improving profits for 2024.. Does anyone know Bradford Ferguson who is the source for this info?

Tesla Megapack Factory Production Limit Solved and Capacity Will be Doubled to 80 GWh | NextBigFuture.com

Bradford Ferguson reports that the Tesla Megapack factory will expand to 80 GWH per year of capacity. The original megapack factory capacity was 40 GWH.

www.nextbigfuture.com

I like this paragraph from the article. It may not be long before the profits from energy are larger than the profit from cars.

Tesla expanding to four lines and 80 GWh would be $40 billion per year in revenue. This would be about $8-10 billion per year of profit. Tesla has about $10 billion of net income this year for all of the car business. IF Tesla expands to 80GWH/year of megapacks then this will more than double profits for 2024 versus 2023.

 

[Buckminster]

Well, this one’s purdy so I kept it

 

[Artful Dodger]

IF Tesla expands to 80GWH/year of megapacks then this will more than double profits for 2024 versus 2023.

It's not clear to me if that 80 GWh/yr figure includes Megafactory Shanghai. That's the new Tesla factory which will be just 3 km away from the (now operational) CATL battery factory, which itself is rated at 80 GWh/yr capacity.

Obviously, an 80G Megafactory would pair well with CATL's 80G LFP plant, but we've also heard CATL may have other customers. I think it's more likely that Tesla gets 'right-of-1st-refusal' on those batteries though, even if Tesla signs an 'off-take' agreement and pays a fee to CATL.

EDIT: Bradford Ferguson's conclusion that Lathrop is doubling Megapack capacity from 40 to 80 GWh/yr appears to be based solely on his observation onsite that Tesla is pouring concrete for a 2nd loading ramp. This is extremely tenuous evidence, and IMO does not yet warrant making that conclusion.

 

[2daMoon]

It's not clear to me if that 80 GWh/yr figure includes Megafactory Shanghai. That's the new Tesla factory which will be just 3 km away from the (now operational) CATL battery factory, which itself is rated at 80 GWh/yr capacity.

Obviously, an 80G Megafactory would pair well with CATL's 80G LFP plant, but we've also heard CATL may have other customers. I think it's more likely that Tesla gets 'right-of-1st-refusal' on those batteries though, even if Tesla signs an 'off-take' agreement and pays a fee to CATL.

Thar's gold in them thar hills cells...

Cheers to the Longs!

P.S. So could Lathrop and Shanghai Megafactories combined total 160 GWh/y installed capacity? "That'll move the chains!"

Considering Bradford Ferguson has done extensive research at Lathrop, sitting in his car counting Megapacks and such, I expect that this estimate would be for only that factory.

The 160 GWh/yr total seems reasonable, particularly if they have gotten a doubling in Lathrop rate of production.

The really cool (amazing) aspect is how they have ramped up and doubled so quickly, compared to the vehicle ramps. The much simplified assembly of the Megapack may lend itself to even higher production rates without an increase in footprint. Well, other than increasing the footprint of where they store completed units waiting for shipment.

This incredible annual profit boost should get Wally's attention as it is a very simple to understand bottom line figure which requires neither imagination nor challenging math to grok.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

It's not clear to me if that 80 GWh/yr figure includes Megafactory Shanghai. That's the new Tesla factory which will be just 3 km away from the (now operational) CATL battery factory, which itself is rated at 80 GWh/yr capacity.

Obviously, an 80G Megafactory would pair well with CATL's 80G LFP plant, but we've also heard CATL may have other customers. I think it's more likely that Tesla gets 'right-of-1st-refusal' on those batteries though, even if Tesla signs an 'off-take' agreement and pays a fee to CATL.

Thar's gold in them thar hills cells...

Cheers to the Longs!

P.S. So could Lathrop and Shanghai Megafactories combined total 160 GWh/y installed capacity? "That'll move the chains!"

Cue Gordo after the ramp with the "Their battery factory is not even producing to full capacity...(they're only producing 60GWh/yr when they have the ability to produce 80 GWh/yr"

 

[Artful Dodger]

Cue Gordo after the ramp ...

Isn't El-Gordo busy consoilng Jim Chanos right now?

WSJ News Exclusive | Jim Chanos, Short Seller Who Took on Enron and Tesla, to Close Hedge Funds

Guess we'll find out soon enough who's been funding Gordo... wouldn't it be sweet if it was GM?

 

[Christine69420]

It's not clear to me if that 80 GWh/yr figure includes Megafactory Shanghai. That's the new Tesla factory which will be just 3 km away from the (now operational) CATL battery factory, which itself is rated at 80 GWh/yr capacity.

That is the way I heard it listening - 80 is Lathrrop only. But some limiting factor - speculated to be power electronics - seems to be holding Lathrop back from reaching the full 40 GWh/y originally planned.

But my 2 øre is that Tesla thinks that limit is short lived since they double the number of lines.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

@Troy has an interesting graph of Tesla favorable/unfavorable based on data published in a couple articles. What's interesting to me is that about 50% of people have no opinion of Tesla one way or another. I'm curious how their recent tiptoeing into advertising will change these numbers over the next year.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1725918334632284256

 

[SmokyPeat]

Cue Gordo after the ramp with the "Their battery factory is not even producing to full capacity...(they're only producing 60GWh/yr when they have the ability to produce 80 GWh/yr"

I'm pretty sure Gordo is laying in bed smoking a cigarette right about now.

 

[jamaatta]

Tesla Lightshow World Record (687 cars). 18.11 Espoo, Finland

 

[AudubonB]

Did someone here say Alaska?

View attachment 991688

Two Cybertrucks Spotted in Fairbanks

Not me/not mine.
It isn’t unlikely those are test vehicles coming out of the USMilitary’s testing center Tesla has been using. I’ve posted at other times the inappropriateness of that; won’t belabor it here.

 

[Skryll]

California PG&E is putting the cost pressure on, contributing to inflation more and more - this should lead to more demand on power walls and solar except the PUC also crippled NEM3 to prevent positive ROI in reasonable time for home solar, and so solar sales are predicted to drop by 40-80%. Any predictions as to how Tesla can address that dilemma ?

I just double checked our own cost experience. off-peak PG&E EV2-A in 2019 was $0.16/kWh, 2023 it is at $0.26/kWh so car charging got 60% more expensive over the last 4 years. And now they also want to add a baseline cost of $57/month on top of that, which will further erode ROI.

Wonder what it takes to rectify this (no simplistic useless political responses please)

 

[Etna]

Cybertruck was in downtown Quebec City this morning, back in Montreal tonight.
This photo was taken just a couple of miles from where I live, disappointed I missed it.
Photo credit Jeeff Nigeb on Cybertruck Québec Facebook group.

 

[Coolio2000]

Not me/not mine.
It isn’t unlikely those are test vehicles coming out of the USMilitary’s testing center Tesla has been using. I’ve posted at other times the inappropriateness of that; won’t belabor it here.

Wait...huh?

No, no need to wait. There's a search button.

 

[loquitur]

Tesla Lightshow World Record (687 cars). 18.11 Espoo, Finland

Tripping the light fantastic! Question: if the cars are synchronized (and they looked really synced to me),
how was the "Mexican Wave" done -- custom programming?

 

[Stretch2727]

Tripping the light fantastic! Question: if the cars are synchronized (and they looked really synced to me),
how was the "Mexican Wave" done -- custom programming?

Tesla added the ability to customize about 2 years ago.

How to Create a Tesla Custom Light Show [VIDEOS] - TeslaNorth.com

Tesla’s 2021 holiday software update started rolling out with firmware version 2021.44.25 (and beyond) earlier this week, bringing V11.0 of the in-car software and User Interface (UI), as well as new features and some holiday cheer. One of those new features is 'Light Show', a new addition to...

teslanorth.com

I think the synchronization is done with everyone picking the same start time.

 

[GhostSkater]

Hey guys, was biking through the woods and found this, anyone knows what it is? Cybertruck for scale

In all seriousness, almost unreal to think I'm holding a 4680 in my hands, straight out of Kato Rd.

As some of you know, I've never been into a Tesla, hell, I only ever saw two in my life so far, one Model S 70D years ago in a event, and more recently a stunning white Model Y Performance in a traffic light as I went by

Feels like having a piece of automotive history, or even a piece of history, specially since this is a V1 that isn't produced anymore. The most amazing part is that here in Brazil, the 4680s are the most cost effective cell ($/kWh) to get for DIY projects, the biggest challenge is that the positive terminal is aluminum, which can't be easily soldered by conventional means

As a side note and as a warning, if you plan to use one for your own projects, don't unless you have a really good idea what you are doing, they lack a few of the safety features most if not all other cylindrical cells have such as the PTC switch (positive temperature coefficient) and the CID (current interrupt device). So lets say you are fooling around with it and short it with a tool or even a ring on your finger, you will have a really bad time, quite worse than any other cell

And as a question, any cool ideas what to do with it after I test it? Maybe just a nice stand for it or a transparent USB power bank so it's useful and you can still see it