Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

I really do think that Cybertruck was yet another self inflicted wound for Tesla since it appears it’s manufacturing has been a bear to get right, and has diverted resources away from a $25K car, which would have been a better thing to work on these past several years in hindsight.

Miscalculation maybe, but no less a priority.

ICE trucks are the gas hogs keeping legacy afloat for the most part. Tow range is also critical or it's not a truck. Critical 4680 Batteries feed both Semi and CyberTruck so it shares another critical path with Semi already in play. Throw in a good challenge and, ya... Elon's mission gear kicks in.

This may have taken away from the unboxed focus, but maybe not. Mexico wasn't quite ready, and the strategy change to do both was fairly recent (early this year?). So did CT really delay $25K? I lean toward not a diversion and necessary. I do think the sheet metal flatness after bending is mirror-like impressive. That may have been the challenge of all challenges and surfaced quite late.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I really doubt this. Tesla would not be the company it is if they didn't attempt to create stellar products. A "me too" Tesla wouldn't be worth investing in.

A $25K Tesla EV would be selling like hotcakes in this economy, no matter how stellar the product is. The price point would be stellar enough.

 

[Knightshade]

Miscalculation maybe, but no less a priority.

Tow range is also critical or it's not a truck.

People keep saying this, yet available data keeps showing the vast majority of pickups tow 0-1 times a year.

 

[2daMoon]

OTOH, the same publication has this report out:

LG and SK On lay off workers as it reduces EV investments in N. America

LG Energy Solution and SK On are laying off workers as it reduces electric vehicle investments in North America.

www.teslarati.com

Which says US battery manufacturers are laying off workers due to domestic EV manufacturing slowdowns. Which implies that Tesla continues to not be a battery supply crunch, and the limiting factor to Tesla EV growth is indeed the economy and their limited product line.

I really do think that Cybertruck was yet another self inflicted wound for Tesla since it appears it’s manufacturing has been a bear to get right, and has diverted resources away from a $25K car, which would have been a better thing to work on these past several years in hindsight.

I think they are laying off workers because of the EV pullback by legacy OEM's who had contracts with those companies.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Miscalculation maybe, but no less a priority.

ICE trucks are the gas hogs keeping legacy afloat for the most part. Tow range is also critical or it's not a truck. Critical 4680 Batteries feed both Semi and CyberTruck so it shares another critical path with Semi already in play. Throw in a good challenge and, ya... Elon's mission gear kicks in.

This may have taken away from the unboxed focus, but maybe not. Mexico wasn't quite ready, and the strategy change to do both was fairly recent (early this year?). So did CT really delay $25K? I lean toward not a diversion and necessary. I do think the sheet metal flatness after bending is mirror-like impressive. That may have been the challenge of all challenges and surfaced quite late.

OK. I could easily have said that the CT exotic look and very difficult manufacturing was a self inflicted wound … if they had instead built a me too pickup truck, easily converted to a standard large SUV, they would be killing it, IMHO. It would have gotten to market about a year earlier and we wouldn’t be seeing this extended Tesla stock slump where Tesla basically hasn’t done much to cause the stock to rise. Anyways, water under the bridge, hypotheticals we will never know the answer to. No company is perfect, including Tesla.

 

[kanweg]

Tesla patents 'Supplementing vision-based system training with simulated content'. I wouldn't have thought that something so generalized could be patented, but hey, I'm not gonna complain.

It is a patent application; it doesn’t mean you will get it granted as broad as claimed or at all.
Based on a few past Tesla applications I did look at, the patent agency Tesla hired did not appear to be particularly good, which wouldn’t improve the chance Of getting stuff granted.

 

[MartinAustin]

Cybertruck was yet another self inflicted wound for Tesla since it appears it’s manufacturing has been a bear to get right, and has diverted resources away from a $25K car, which would have been a better thing to work on these past several years

They have gotten past every other thing that was "a bear to get right." FSD notwithstanding but is someone saying they're going to give up on that?

One of Tesla's biggest assets is their manufacturing chops. Ask yourself why every other manufacturer is buying a huge die-casting machine... who did that first? For their next trick, they will show the world how to fold mass quantities of stainless steel at high precision.

Another part of the Cybertruck is the 4680. They are still working on scaling that up... but it is not an exotic item dedicated to the exotic Cybertruck... it's just a cylindrical battery and they need to produce a lot of them to sell a truck. Doesn't matter if the truck is exotic or legacy-looking.

Also... substantially, the $25,000 car is already designed. They could probably start building it right now but they'd have to sell it for $30,000. They are still working on the scaled-up 4680 battery production processes, which is a critical part of getting the retail cost down to $25,000. So in a way... they are already working on the $25,000 car and have been so since 2020.

 

[mongo]

OK. I could easily have said that the CT exotic look and very difficult manufacturing was a self inflicted wound … if they had instead built a me too pickup truck, easily converted to a standard large SUV, they would be killing it, IMHO. It would have gotten to market about a year earlier and we wouldn’t be seeing this extended Tesla stock slump where Tesla basically hasn’t done much to cause the stock to rise. Anyways, water under the bridge, hypotheticals we will never know the answer to. No company is perfect, including Tesla.

A year early?
In what factory?
With what cells?
Fitting the (necessarily larger) pack where in a ladder frame?

Follow on effects:
Where would the $25k car's 48V modules and architecture come from?
When does Tesla trial 9k GigaPresses?
What inverters would Semi be using?

 

[SmokyPeat]

I imagine the $25k car will have LFP batteries. So I don't see the 4680 cell ramp as being that relevant to it's timeline.

 

[TesLeif]

I wouldn't know, this site's been down more than up for me.

View attachment 993466

Maybe we finally broke the Max Pain Masters! To the MooOOoOoooN!! /s

 

[Creekstalker]

People keep saying this, yet available data keeps showing the vast majority of pickups tow 0-1 times a year.

Absolutely right. I wonder what percentage of this vast majority picture themselves pulling rv's, boats, 4-wheelers, flatbed trailers, canoe and kayak trailers, etc. as they ponder that new pickup purchase. Or overlanding in hard-to-reach, remote places. I plead guilty to this and can't be the only person writing a Cybertruck-centric bucket list of all the adventurous stuff I'm gonna do with my fancy new truck. Now I may never do half the things on my list, however it damn sure ain't going to be because my new truck isn't capable. I bet most every potential buyer has a half-dozen aspirational use cases that won't ever happen and no amount of logic, rationality, or statistics will diminish this.

 

[TesLeif]

Just saw a CT in person through the window today.

Game over for all. It is beyond incredible.

Just wait for the delivery event and see all specs with voltages and all youtubers to do their 'reviews'
Absolutely awesome thing.

*This* is the *EXACT* kind of hype that gets us all in trouble... we hear these glowing anecdotes and how Tesla is going to DESTROY/DOMINATE, then stock price crashes and we sulk for a few months....

By the way, I love the hype!! Keep up the good work!!!
Let's goooOoOOOoOo!!! Cybertruck is gonna make every. single. person. SH*T their pants... but in that good "ooh, I pooped my pants... awesome!" kind of way!

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Fsd v12 rolling out to employees. Love it!

 

[SOULPEDL]

People keep saying this, yet available data keeps showing the vast majority of pickups tow 0-1 times a year.

So?
Edit: (And I gotta quit doing this, but the optics of a tow truck not making it back from camping is #2 problem for the Lightning F-150 version (behind charging). A version of CyberTruck needs 500 mi range, or it's not a truck. If I tow isn't the question, I will eventually and our culture is forcing self sufficiency. I may need to literally load up and get outta Dodge - City that is. Bullet proof might come in handy, IDK.)

 

[betstarship]

So, does that mean "2 weeks" is over?!

 

[TesLeif]

OK. I could easily have said that the CT exotic look and very difficult manufacturing was a self inflicted wound … if they had instead built a me too pickup truck, easily converted to a standard large SUV, they would be killing it, IMHO. It would have gotten to market about a year earlier and we wouldn’t be seeing this extended Tesla stock slump where Tesla basically hasn’t done much to cause the stock to rise. Anyways, water under the bridge, hypotheticals we will never know the answer to. No company is perfect, including Tesla.

Tesla can wait until investors give up on Rivian's money-losing ways, and then buy Rivian in a hostile take-over at pennies on the dollar... then drastically improve the efficiencies of their R1-S and R1-T, and gain an instant entry into the conventional-looking truck/SUV market (and the delivery truck market).

But seriously, there's a greater than 0 chance this could happen one day... and they'd likely fire 80% of the people.

 

[SOULPEDL]

OK. I could easily have said that the CT exotic look and very difficult manufacturing was a self inflicted wound … if they had instead built a me too pickup truck, easily converted to a standard large SUV, they would be killing it, IMHO. It would have gotten to market about a year earlier and we wouldn’t be seeing this extended Tesla stock slump where Tesla basically hasn’t done much to cause the stock to rise. Anyways, water under the bridge, hypotheticals we will never know the answer to. No company is perfect, including Tesla.

We don't know the projected margins yet... they could be great and why it was even attempted as I recall. Huge savings in stamping and flexibility of design, exoskeleton comes to mind. So I think your version would be more expensive, have more drag, and we'd never know there was a better way. And if it did somehow take away from the $25K build, that's unfortunate and just life in the fast lane at Tesla.

 

[2daMoon]

Maybe we finally broke the Max Pain Masters! To the MooOOoOoooN!! /s

 

[Cosmacelf]

Tesla can wait until investors give up on Rivian's money-losing ways, and then buy Rivian in a hostile take-over at pennies on the dollar... then drastically improve the efficiencies of their R1-S and R1-T, and gain an instant entry into the conventional-looking truck/SUV market (and the delivery truck market).

But seriously, there's a greater than 0 chance this could happen one day... and they'd likely fire 80% of the people.

Interesting idea. Tesla bought SolarCity for $2.6B in 2016 when Tesla stock price was about 15x less than it is today. Rivian at a current $15B market cap would be cheaper for Tesla to buy today than it was to buy SolarCity from a stock dilution perspective.

It is at least worth considering...

 

[betstarship]

Interesting idea. Tesla bought SolarCity for $2.6B in 2016 when Tesla stock price was about 15x less than it is today. Rivian at a current $15B market cap would be cheaper for Tesla to buy today than it was to buy SolarCity from a stock dilution perspective.

It is at least worth considering...

Build vs Buy, I wonder what the Cybertruck program is worth right now as it stands...and just how much cannibalization would occur in the orders if Rivian were bought by Tesla.