Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Words of HABIT]

Of the three , this is the best CT video I watched. It even included lots of best-of-Tesla historical facts that I did not know, such as the S broke the safety scoring system by getting a 5.4 out of 5.

Very entertaining and informative. They even executed the sledgehammer test to prove Tesla’s claim, vs a stainless steel fridge.

Then they ran a 1400kg sled running at 33.5 km/hr against the side panel to show that the steel skin did not need bracing for safety, and commented that whereas other cars would be a write off, the CT looked like it just needed two new doors and airbags to get back on the road.

1 hour ago.

Lots of impressive facts presented. E.g.View attachment 995386

Of the three , this is the best CT video I watched. It even included lots of best-of-Tesla historical facts that I did not know, such as the S broke the safety scoring system by getting a 5.4 out of 5.

Very entertaining and informative. They even executed the sledgehammer test to prove Tesla’s claim, vs a stainless steel fridge.

Then they ran a 1400kg sled running at 33.5 km/hr against the side panel to show that the steel skin did not need bracing for safety, and commented that whereas other cars would be a write off, the CT looked like it just needed two new doors and airbags to get back on the road.

1 hour ago.

Lots of impressive facts presented. E.g.View attachment 995386

Agree. If you can only watch one video about Cybertruck, this is the one. Jason Cammisa on the ICONS. And for those disappointed about the Cybertruck price, remember it is elastic. Give it time. Take Model S Plaid for example:

 

[MP3Mike]

Can the range extender plug and play as a powerwall? If so, instant purchase for me. I want to purchase 4 powerwall for my farm. If I could go with 2 powerwalls and an extender for extra capacity for my home system, and then unhook and plug into Cybertruck when needed. I have equipment to lift and move. All I need is for it to be compatible for home storage and in the truck. For 90% of my use standard battery pack is fine and I want the batteries at home for backup.

It isn't going to be available until late 2024, so we probably won't have details for quite a while. While it would be ideal to be able to use it as an extra battery pack in a PW3 system, I doubt they will have that capability.

 

[jerry33]

Fortunately, in a few years there will be Superchargers everywhere, and, the trailers will have their own batteries and motors.

I certainly hope that's true. On my most frequent trip, the five Superchargers were opened up in late 2014 (IIRC or maybe early 2015). One has been added since, and one has been upgraded (both in the past six months and both very welcome). To get to fifty miles between SCs, seven additional Superchargers would be required. I think it will be an unfortunately long time before we reach that sunny plateau.

 

[madodel]

Will Tesla be renting out range extenders?

Adding $16k to a 7% 60-month loan is $320/month. This is steep if you only need the extra range for a couple of months each year.

Renting at $20/day plus $100 install/uninstall fee would be a pretty good deal for someone with occasional need.

Tweet it to Musk. That’s a great idea which would solve a lot folks issues. If not Tesla maybe someone else like Hertz can rent them out.

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1730622948115910964

https://twitter.com/x/status/1730620712354816042

Is Larse suggesting Highland is at full speed?

I see lots of analysts thinking that Tesla in the future will have all the problems of Tesla in the past. Imo they fail to understand the amount of growth Tesla has had to do to go from 2000cars a year to 500k cars a quarter. Yes there are still the occasional hiccup once in a while(S/X), but mostly it's been very clean growth and high quality products. They are getting so much attention and people instantly look for panel gaps in a way that no other automaker is scrutinized, so they have had to learn to get things right and have learnt the lesson. Tesla are antifragile.

Cybertruck production, software and hardware seems really well executed. Highland was a win. Model Y ramp extraordinary. Every new product Tesla makes will be standing on the should of the other releases. Because they vertically integrate and do things well. See JoeJustice agile development videos to understand how and what they are doing. Model 25k? Gonna nail it. Tesla van? Gonna nail it. Every product will have their FSD for a cost on $1k of hardware, meanwhile Toyota will be paying nvidia, bosch etc thousands for a buggy, crappy performance version. Cybertruck infotainment? Nails it.

 

[CitizenKane]

I think the pricing of Cybertruck makes sense. As long as production is low, i.e. demand exceeds supply, they keep prices high. Once production picks up, they will lower prices. It is called price skimming (Price skimming - Wikipedia) and Tesla has used this in the past. I paid more for my Model X PDL in 2016 than for my Model X Plaid this year (even disregarding inflation).

 

[FastEddieB]

In metro areas and along major interstates, that's true. On secondary roads, or in remote, rural areas?

It doesn’t have to be all that remote…

Earlier this week I had a Dr appointment in Jasper, GA, about 130 miles each way from the Knoxville area. Left home in our M3LR with 97% charge. Temps in the 40’s. After the appointment the car showed 9% remaining at home. Anyway, I got home with about 14% and 35 miles remaining. A bailout would have necessitated a pretty significant detour to Chattanooga.

A good case for long range. The area between Knoxville, TN and N GA is a bit of a Supercharger desert:

As a further aside, at least one Supercharger is sorely needed along the 4-lane that runs from Ball Ground to Jasper to Ellijay to Blue Ridge to Blairsville. Lots of Atlanta folks travel that route to the GA mountains and beyond.

 

[SarahsDad]

Been spending time watching the newly released videos: My favorites:

Top Gear video with Lars Moravy and Franz

Hagerty video with drag racing against Rivian and Hummer and a great Randy Pobst cameo

Official Tesla video about the bulletproof testing process

Feeling better than ever as an investor. An amazing groundbreaking machine.

 

[jerry33]

Will Tesla be renting out range extenders?

Adding $16k to a 7% 60-month loan is $320/month. This is steep if you only need the extra range for a couple of months each year.

Renting at $20/day plus $100 install/uninstall fee would be a pretty good deal for someone with occasional need.

But it takes a month to get a Service Centre appointment in my area. So this is definitely "let's go camping next week" kind of thing. Also it's similar to deciding to go on a trip in a gas car. "Do I really want to spend the $300 on gas?".

 

[madodel]

I was concerned about the CT ramp before the delivery event, now I'm even more concerned. Did you all notice deliveries start in '24? Not now, or December, but 2024? I'm afraid production still might not even start for months. As usual with my pessimism, I hope I'm wrong, but the ramp could be even uglier than what I feared in my previous bear case.

Yesterday there were about 500 people who saw a bunch of Cybertrucks in different stages of assembly. I talked to several employees who are moving to the CT line. They are producing them NOW. They will ramp as fast as they can.

 

[Usain]

I see lots of analysts thinking that Tesla in the future will have all the problems of Tesla in the past. Imo they fail to understand the amount of growth Tesla has had to do to go from 2000cars a year to 500k cars a quarter. Yes there are still the occasional hiccup once in a while(S/X), but mostly it's been very clean growth and high quality products. They are getting so much attention and people instantly look for panel gaps in a way that no other automaker is scrutinized, so they have had to learn to get things right and have learnt the lesson. Tesla are antifragile.

Cybertruck production, software and hardware seems really well executed. Highland was a win. Model Y ramp extraordinary. Every new product Tesla makes will be standing on the should of the other releases. Because they vertically integrate and do things well. See JoeJustice agile development videos to understand how and what they are doing. Model 25k? Gonna nail it. Tesla van? Gonna nail it. Every product will have their FSD for a cost on $1k of hardware, meanwhile Toyota will be paying nvidia, bosch etc thousands for a buggy, crappy performance version. Cybertruck infotainment? Nails it.

Agree.

And add to that, they have had over 4 years to figure this out as they waited on 4680 to mature. I'm sure ramping the CT won't be easy, but it won't be production hell either.

 

[MP3Mike]

Yesterday there were about 500 people who saw a bunch of Cybertrucks in different stages of assembly. I talked to several employees who are moving to the CT line. They are producing them NOW. They will ramp as fast as they can.

Somebody showed that they were doing deliveries in Texas and California now, with more states starting in early 2024.

 

[traxila]

Anyone think they might post new reservations number on Monday?

As in numbers for new reservations post 11/30 only.

 

[kanweg]

If I’m not mistaken, while some features didn’t make it, the CT comes with something that was not announced four years ago: rear wheel steering. That requires some hardware and development, adding to cost.

As to the price, unlike the model Y, this is an entirely new product. Tesla will want to have healthy profit margins so should there be a recall of some sorts, they do have a fat reservation to pay for that until the warranty runs out. I think it may be quite a few years before all the money is acknowledged.

 

[jhm]

Tweet it to Musk. That’s a great idea which would solve a lot folks issues. If not Tesla maybe someone else like Hertz can rent them out.

I like the third party idea. Rental companies can compete with each other on cost and convenience. They also can buy and sell range extenders. Such a secondary market can lower the financial risk to buyers.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Fortunately, in a few years there will be Superchargers everywhere, and, the trailers will have their own batteries and motors.

Personally-I doubt that. It's a huge cost adder to a trailer that may only be towed a few times a year. You also have the issue of driving dynamics when the trailer is pushing you with it's own motor to contend with. But who knows-maybe battery tech will evolve to the point that this isn't cost prohibitive fairly shortly. It certainly does expand options.

 

[FastEddieB]

As long as we’re dreaming, how about a rack in the front of the bed that could take smaller, more easily handled battery modules. Plug-and-play with maybe each module supporting 15-20 miles of range. Just take as much extra battery as you might need for any given trip.

 

[ninpb]

I will finally be one of those houses that have two Teslas in the driveway. Got rid of my last ICE because of transmission issue and through Tesla ordered a used Model Y. I think a great deal as I got one with FSD and acceleration boost which I equate to be only an additional 6k on the price. I believe all used Y's on the site had acceleration boost automatically added.

I find it hard to believe anyone would buy a used Tesla not from Tesla, especially 3/Y as prices on carmax and carvana were consistently higher, as if they had no clue that the EV rebate existed, ie. on carmax right now, 2022 MYLR 31k miles going for $44k?! On top of it, Tesla gives their used cars an extra 1yr/10k miles basic warranty.

Anybody have a clue how Tesla's used car sales are doing for the business? Interestingly, the one I had my eye on and finally ordered dropped from 43k to 41300 in just 3-4 days. So they want to move them fast.

 

[2daMoon]

I was concerned about the CT ramp before the delivery event, now I'm even more concerned. Did you all notice deliveries start in '24? Not now, or December, but 2024? I'm afraid production still might not even start for months. As usual with my pessimism, I hope I'm wrong, but the ramp could be even uglier than what I feared in my previous bear case.

Honestly, that 2024 delivery seems odd as to how it could be interpreted. I know that reservation holders will be taking delivery throughout 2024, and probably 2025 and 2026 as well.

Do the math based upon 1,000,000 reservations, conservatively, as reservation estimates are double that.
Even if 50% cancelled it leaves 500K taking delivery (and this is still very, very conservative).
If they somehow hit 100-150K production in 2024, (very optimistic and highly unlikely), and 250K production by the end of 2025,that would still not deliver enough to begin filling new orders made since deliveries began yesterday.

2027 could be an optimistic delivery date for anyone placing an order today.

As @madodel indicated, the production line is fully installed and appeared to be operational. It stretches from column 47 to column 84, that is, from behind the main entrance to the South wall of the existing building. It is close to a 1/4 mile long, with robots whirring about to our amusement, and parallel support lines for staging parts and pre-assembly of various components.

It is only a matter of whatever amount of time it takes to ramp up while working out the bugs to fine-tune the line toward rated capacity.

 

[SOULPEDL]

The closer the weight is to the centre of the vehicle, the better. The storage is way aft of the centre.

I wonder how close we came to having an under-pack instead of the Extender. Give up maybe 5" clearance or less if batteries on their sides, with plenty clearance remaining. Easy to install if you just bolt/unbolt using the Truck's air lift. But they didn't go this route, maybe for safety/structural reasons, moving on...

Big what if... by the time the Range Extender is available, people will have the option to boost their miles on existing CT batteries for cash? A 15% boost would get quite close to 400 mi range. And maybe the reason for the Extender is Plan B pending Reliability Data from the fleet (maybe a new chemistry here). Long shots are not uncommon with Tesla.