Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

If this is a deal breaker for customers why not leave it? At least as an option?

Why did Cortez burn his ships when he arrived in the New World?

Meanwhile, they can work on the software as much as they want, until they reach parity.

..to motivate his crew? 'There'll be no going back.'

There's no evidence that Tesla sales have been impaired in any material way. Anecdotes are only useful in rhetorical argument, not in management science.

Management has to have the freedom to make timely calls based on the best information they have at the time. They'll do what it takes, for as long as it takes, to make it work. Hindsight is a luxury reserved for analysts and consultants.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I am guilty of not following Tesla Energy closely enough. This is pretty incredible news for the co.

Megapactory Shanghai was announced on Apr 09, 2023: (10K Megapacks/year capacity, cloning Lanthrop)

Tesla to build Shanghai factory to make Megapack batteries

Tesla plans to ramp up output and lower the costs of its Megapack battery units as the world shifts toward using more renewable energy.

www.reuters.com

Tesla Could Double Net Income! | Farzad Mesbahi (Apr 13, 2023)

BTW, recent drone videos from Wu Wa show that the plot of land to the SE of Giga Shanghai Phase 2 has now been cleared and graded, obviously ready for new building construction.

Cheers!

 

[jeewee3000]

Uh, what? USS was never coupled to Autopilot, that was radar.

Wrong. "12 Ultrasonic Sensors - Detects nearby cars, helps prevent potential collisions and assists with parking" See also the visualisation of a Tesla driving down the road (i.e. not parking), detecting proximity to other vehicles with the help of ultrasonic sensors during lane changes, speaks for itself.

The reasons for removal were: (see Lex Fridman interview of Karpathy)
- sensor fusion difficulty. Which input should be relied on? How to code this? More inputs in the NN's. Etcetera.
- hard to keep track of all different firmwares/types of USS/the FSD stack has to be compatible with all of these
- no USS = less parts in the car = less chance of production halt due to USS;
- cost savings

But the USS data was being used by Autopilot/FSD. This is factual.

See this random pick from the Wayback Machine dated April 7th 2021 (=pre USS removal but heavy into FSD development).

This is where we'll have to agree to disagree. Software is the future, it is necessary, and it is on the critical path to the future. When would you take on this problem? Or how about the switch to 48V? It's the same management issue: accepting technical risk vs. stiffled progress (that's why Detroit has been 12v for 70 yrs).

We don't disagree that software is the future.

I disagree that Tesla should skimp on cost, resulting in an inferior product and a worse customer experience. (yes, my model Y could be better if it was exactly the same but with added USS distance measurement. I'd even gladly pay the $114 Tesla saves by not including it)

The only people not bothered by this are either never having to park in close proximity conditions (Paris/Brussels/London/Amsterdam/Rome/any mid to large EU city/EU public parking garages/...) or those that don't have a non USS Tesla yet.

Your analogy to 48V is flawed since 48V brings no downsides to the customer. Tesla Vision park assist does. (By the way, in my first post I stated Tesla hasn't delivered on "Tesla Vision park assist" and you switched the subject to Tesla Vision being a part of FSD and how that's coming along. The FSD Tesla Vision was beside the point. I am talking distance measurements when parking only.)

Tesla did NOT mess this up; they're not finished yet. But on the eve of introducing a new software solution, let's focus instead on how they messed up... lol!

This type of short-term thinking is what makes TSLA such a great buy.

I notice Tesla is not finished yet with improving Tesla Vision parking features, but this is not short-term thinking.

My car is supposed to last me ~5 years before I upgrade to a new one and sell the old one. Right now I'm in year two of my non-USS-model-Y-ownership. As a customer I am very much "short-term" minded, i.e. the lifespan of my vehicle. If Tesla says the future will be great that's great for investors (which I am, I see great potential in Tesla as I have since my first stock purchase in 2015) but it lets down current customers (i.e. the revenue generators).

In short: improve all you want, but don't worsen the product.

Tesla will likely produce ~150M cars over the next 10 years (2024-2033). If a USS system costs $100 per car, that's $15B in COGS (and that's only if Tesla stops expanding production at 20M units/yr in 2029).

For scale, Giga Shanghai cost about $7B to build and tool. Giga Texas will cost ~$10B by the time current plans are complete (they doubtless add more plans).

So deleting USS is worth about the same as Giga Shanghai + Giga Texas combined.

One cannot be certain about this. I'm guessing Tesla has less demand with the no-USS than it would've had with USS parking features still available. Therefore Tesla had to cut prices more than they would normally have to than without USS removal. In other words: margins would likely be slightly higher if USS were still on new Tesla vehicles. And rain sensors. And passenger lumbar support. (No, I'm not saying the price cuts are because of USS removal. I'm saying the ASP to sell all production could be slightly higher with USS since then Tesla would not be at a disadvantage over other cars regarding their parking features. And yes, this does matter to many buyers. This seems underestimated in these forums.)

So we disagree in the sense that I do not think cost savings trump customer experience.

I want Tesla to make the best cars, in all aspects. And the USS removal makes Tesla have inferior tech regarding parking features. Which is a shame because the Tesla brand stands for cutting edge technology. The damage of USS removal outclasses the cost savings.

I know you don't agree, but this is my position and it will not change until all current no-USS-Teslas have feature parity with USS cars. (working feature parity) And I fear that will never be the case.

(not to get into it again, but you just cannot have clean camera's at all times in wet conditions. Therefore the Tesla vision parking system is inherently flawed. And the lack of front bumper camera makes accurate parking proximity measurements to the front bumper very unlikely.)

 

[mongo]

Tesla's CFO had to sell shares to cover the taxes on the shares vested as part of their compensation package.

Tesla likely cut USS both for cost and supply reasons. Others did too

Chevy Chip Shortage Nixes One Feature

Remember, it's not just the sensors, it's trim pieces, painting, harnesses, control modules, service, ...

Artemis is the twin sister of Apollo (though Artemis Fowl is a male protagonist and the books are fun)

 

[CDB_]

The discussion on the Cybertruck is very interesting but the focus on costs, potential sales and range is only part of the equation.

The Cybertruck also serves as a halo product for the entire Tesla brand. The futuristic design and technological showcase revealed grabs your attention and will undoubtedly have a positive if unquantifiable impact on sales overall, especially when the amount spent on advertising is considered.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Management has to have the freedom to make timely calls based on the best information they have at the time. They'll do what it takes, for as long as it takes, to make it work. Hindsight is a luxury reserved for analysts and consultants.

They have this freedom. They exercise it. But we still have the freedom to say, after some time, if it was a mistake or not.
This was, at least from the point of view of several potential EU customers.

 

[Cobbler]

Sell, sell, sell!
"Bernstein is promoting short Tesla stock as its “best idea for 2024,” with their analyst seeing nearly 40% downside risk from current levels."

Bernstein's best idea for 2024? Short Tesla stock

 

[jerry33]

Sell, sell, sell!
"Bernstein is promoting short Tesla stock as its “best idea for 2024,” with their analyst seeing nearly 40% downside risk from current levels."

Bernstein's best idea for 2024? Short Tesla stock

I'd hate to see their worst idea.

 

[The Accountant]

In murky economic times . . . .
- the Cybertruck is in production
- Megafactory Shanghai in production by Q2 2024
- Highland retooling in Fremont maybe Q1 2024
- Gen3 Austin production line in development and far advanced
- Phase 2 auto expansion continuing in Shanghai
- Mexico to break ground in 2024
- Plans submitted at Giga Berlin to double capacity to 1m cars/yr & achieve 100-gigawatt hours of battery production.
- Investments in Dojo, FSD and Optimus continue strongly

Maybe we get a recession . . .maybe we get a soft landing . . .either way . . .Tesla will continue advancing. Patience!

 

[jkirkwood001]

... The Aviation industry has used 24v systems for many years, and for many of the same advantages that Tesla is switching to 48v.

Maybe that's why Tesla sent around "How-to-build-a-48v-car For Dummies"? To prevent intrepid OEMs from working on a divergent, only twofold improvement in wiring, like the current airline industry, and instead spur them to the quadruple improvement 48v Tesla is betting on.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Maybe that's why Tesla sent around "How-to-build-a-48v-car For Dummies": to prevent intrepid OEMs from working on a divergent, only twofold improvement in wiring, like the current airline industry, and instead spur them to the quadruple improvement 48v Tesla is betting on.

Yeah, I would love to read that "HOW TO DESIGN A 48-VOLT VEHICLE" pamphlet. I'm sure it will leak out onto the 'net soon.

Funguys @ Hagerty graffitied the cover page of their print copy "XOXO ELON"

Jim Farley on X: "Follow They weren't joking. We received the document today, dated Dec. 5th. Thanks, @ElonMusk. Great for the industry!" /X

Elon Musk on X: "You’re welcome" /X​

Cheers!

 

[The Accountant]

The discussion on the Cybertruck is very interesting but the focus on costs, potential sales and range is only part of the equation.

The Cybertruck also serves as a halo product for the entire Tesla brand. The futuristic design and technological showcase revealed grabs your attention and will undoubtedly have a positive if unquantifiable impact on sales overall, especially when the amount spent on advertising is considered.

I know the Cybertruck design can be polarizing . . . BUT

I was at the Manhattan showroom when a man entered and went right up to the Cybertruck and said, "What is this; I love it"?
He had no intention to visit the showroom that day but saw the CT from the window and it caught his attention.
After speaking with him, I realized he knew nothing about the CT, nothing about Tesla, nothing about EVs; but within 15 min, he placed an deposit on the Cybertruck. There was only a Model 3 on display w/ the CT but in the back employee-only section there was a Model X in view. I think it may have been a test drive vehicle. This gentleman asked to see the X and the associate took him to it. My point is that Cybertruck is bringing attention and new potential customers to the brand.

By the way, this being NYC, this was not the only unusual interaction that day. At one of the showroom computer stations, there was a man with a duck on his lap placing an order for a Tesla. Maybe it was this duck that was seen at the NYC marathon one year.

 

[unk45]

An interesting point, possibly of relevance. But if a baby warthog is beautiful only to its mom, then where are we?
At any rate, I will apply your test to Gus tonight and apprise.

For the record, baby warthogs are intensively attractive to lion, leopard; spotted hyena, cheetah, and African wild dog, even the odd opportunistic crocodile. [info courtesy of my last Serengeti visit].
As for the Cybertruck it hs taken me some reflection and seeing my first actual production Cybertruck to understand how useful that analogy might be.

In the end the functional capabilities may outweigh cosmetics. Just as the warthog is unattractive to non-predators so too the Cybertruck may continue to be unattractive to those who do not value the functional utility. I note the odd review also emphasizes the oddity, and interprets that itself as inherently ugly.

Purely from a TSLA perspective I think it to be very probable that Cybertruck will spawn numerous benefits that have applicability to future models, specifically including the 'unboxed' production processes and, almost without question, the materials advances that enable the use of steel alloys to reduce overall mass.

My view is that the real advances to be valued most are in production processes and materials, not least of which is the 48v architecture that is on the verge of taking over broadly plus using ethernet vs canbus. If I am correct, the soon-to-arrive smaller vehicles will enable considerable variety of models for specific purposes. In short, Cybertruck development has put in place a 'platform' of processes and technologies which will drive down costs and support local/regional specific models. The word 'platform' in this context is perhaps more akin to the old VAG practice of using precisely standard parts in invisible places to drive down costs (e.g. identical piston from VW Fox to Bugatti Veyron, decades ago. VAG never learned to apply continuous efficiency improvements despite the early promise.) TSLA and SpaceX have taken that approach seriously and applied the logic to include Falcon grid fin motors, Octovalve, Inconel variants, stainless alloys, motors and much more.

Thus from my view, Cybertruck is much more than a new product. It is the next major evolutionary step. Perhaps The Mad Hungarian needs a new t-shirt! If my perspective is even close to accurate, this is the automotive equivalent of Mammals that eradicated nearly all the non-flying dinosaur descendants.

 

[2daMoon]

As a long-term investor, I have found the Cybertruck reveal to be fascinating. After reading and watching as much as possible, it throws up some thoughts.


1. Been better accepted?

Paid Reservations for 8+ years of production doesn't indicate acceptance? No new orders will be filled until they work through those. People who order one today may not get theirs until sometime in the next decade.

3. Been cheaper to build?

Have you not looked at the numbers comparing CT to the cost of other ICE and BEV pickups? It is priced on par to what people are paying today while providing more features and advanced technology. The "early adopter" prices are close to the inflation adjusted price at the reveal. Just imagine what the prices will drop to once economy of scale factors are applied as production ramps. Look at the 3 and the Y price history since delivery began, adjusted for inflation, for comparison.

I see the disadvantages as:-

1. Vulnerable and expensive windscreen which may compromise site/work use

You may not be familiar with the tech behind the creation of the windscreen. The material was developed specifically to be used on the Semi. Windscreen replacement on Semi trucks is one of the more routine expenses that lead to both replacement costs and downtime. Tesla developed a windscreen which is more durable, less likely to crack when hit by road debris, and be less likely to need replacement as often as traditional glass. On the CT, the angle of the windscreen will be more likely to deflect objects than a more upright windscreen would.

4. Quirky looks which may influence sales – which way I'm not sure!

See above point on there already being over 8 years of production reserved for purchase.

Get the popcorn.

Now we're talking!

 

[2daMoon]

The discussion on the Cybertruck is very interesting but the focus on costs, potential sales and range is only part of the equation.

The Cybertruck also serves as a halo product for the entire Tesla brand. The futuristic design and technological showcase revealed grabs your attention and will undoubtedly have a positive if unquantifiable impact on sales overall, especially when the amount NOT spent on advertising is considered.

FTFY

 

[Unpilot]

Sell, sell, sell!
"Bernstein is promoting short Tesla stock as its “best idea for 2024,” with their analyst seeing nearly 40% downside risk from current levels."

Bernstein's best idea for 2024? Short Tesla stock

You sort of have to admire that fools consistency.

 

[The Accountant]

For the record, baby warthogs are intensively attractive to lion, leopard; spotted hyena, cheetah, and African wild dog, even the odd opportunistic crocodile. [info courtesy of my last Serengeti visit].
As for the Cybertruck it hs taken me some reflection and seeing my first actual production Cybertrusk to understand how useful that analogy might be.

In the end the functional capabilities may outweigh cosmetics. Just as the warthog is unattractive to non-predators so too the Cybertruck may continue to be unattractive to those who do not value the functional utility. I note the odd review also emphasizes the oddity, and interprets that itself as inherently ugly.

Purely from a TSLA perspective I think it to be very probable that Cybertruck will spawn numerous benefits that have applicability to future models, specifically including the 'unboxed' production processes and, almost without question, the materials advances that enable the use of steel alloys to reduce overall mass.

My view is that the real advances to be valued most are in production processes and materials, not least of which is the 48v architecture that is on the verge fo taking over broadly. If I am correct, the soon-to-arrive smaller vehicles will enable considerable variety of models for specific purposes. In short, Cybertruck development has put in place a 'platform' of processes and technologies which will drive down costs and support local/regional specific models. The word 'platform' in this context is perhaps more akin to the old VAG practice of using precisely standard parts in invisible places to drive down costs (e.g. identical piston from VW Fox to Bugatti Veyron, decades ago. VAG never learned to apply continuous efficiency improvements despite the early promise. TSLA and SpaceX have taken that approach seriously and applied the logic to include Falcon grid fin motors, Octovalve, Inconel variants, stainless alloys, motors and much more.

Thus from my view, Cybertruck is much more than a new product. It is the next major evolutionary step. Perhaps The Mad Hungarian needs a new t-shirt! If my perspective is even close to accurate, this is the automotive equivalent of Mammals eradicated nearly all the non-flying dinosaur descendants.

Excellent perspective.
Bringing the Cybertruck from hand made prototype to production built Tesla muscle.
In this process (Prototype to Production) Tesla (and its associates) grew stronger in innovation, creativity, engineering know-how, execution and confidence.

 

[2daMoon]

In murky economic times . . . .
- the Cybertruck is in production
- Megafactory Shanghai in production by Q2 2024
- Highland retooling in Fremont maybe Q1 2024
- Gen3 Austin production line in development and far advanced
- Phase 2 auto expansion continuing in Shanghai
- Mexico to break ground in 2024
- Plans submitted at Giga Berlin to double capacity to 1m cars/yr & achieve 100-gigawatt hours of battery production.
- Investments in Dojo, FSD and Optimus continue strongly

Maybe we get a recession . . .maybe we get a soft landing . . .either way . . .Tesla will continue advancing. Patience!

Oh yeah?

Well, I'm holding out for what it will be like after the economy recovers. So there!

 

[Artful Dodger]

"Bernstein is promoting short Tesla stock as its “best idea for 2024,” with their analyst seeing nearly 40% downside risk from current levels."

Haha, well at least as a consolation prize, Bernstein's Toni Scaramouche has asked his last 'boring, bone-headed question' on Tesla's quarterly earnings calls. It's not like he ever showed any interest in management's answers, anyway. Set sail, Toni...

Bonehead: (n) analyst who bases their 40% downside risk on 'filling-the-gap'

You sort of have to admire that fools consistency.

"A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds". Soon, we'll get to play "Where's Waldo" with Toni B/S.

Emerson and Wilde would be happy to roast this boggins.

Cheers!

 

[2daMoon]

Haha, well at least as a consolation prize, Bernstein's Toni Scaramouche has asked his last 'boring, bone-headed question' on Tesla's quarterly earnings calls. It's not like he ever showed any interest in management's answers, anyway. Set sail, Toni...



"A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds". Soon, we'll get to play "Where's Waldo" with Toni B/S.

Emerson and Wilde would be pleased.

... but, will he do the Fandango?