Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

But have you ever driven a car where you had to turn the A/C off to make it up a steep hill with no power steering as well?

The good old days and now we have people complaining about range anxiety

I had one where you could turn a knob and include the coolant in the heating coil in the radiator flow to keep the engine cool enough to make it up the mountain without overheating. The really neat thing was that you could block off the heater coil from the passenger compartment so you didn't bake at the same time.

 

[AudubonB]

For what it's worth - I want my Summon!

 

[Paul_SF]

Is it possible that Elon’s cultural tour of Italy is also a business trip and GigaTorino/Milano will be the next location? France probably won’t get one because of the work laws there and Spain is probably out of the race also.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Day 05: Five golden rings | Semi Breaks Physiks​

Part of 12 Days of Christmas - Tesla Edition a series (c) by the Artful Dodger, Dec 2023

Over this Yuletide season, I will post a daily installment focusing on Tesla products, past, present, and future (please note that I will express major themes as short-hand bullet points, or I will run out of Yule before the tide comes back). Here's the series so far:

Day 01: A Partridge in a Pear Tree | Roadster Proof of Concept
Day 02: 2 Turtle Doves | S/X Fraternal Twins go Mainstream
Day 03: 3 French Hens | Model 3 Bets the Company
Day 04: 4 Calling Birds | Model Y Built at Four Factories

Intro to Part 5: Semi Breaks Physiks​

Semi is intended to lead the way, showing that EVs trucks can displace diesel for transportation of goods in the U.S.A. (and the World). Thus, Semi needed to combine exceptional range and hauling capabilities, low cost of operation and maintenance, making it the obvious choice for Fleet Managers (based on it's economics).

1. The Reveal Event: Fremont, Nov 2017

• Elon revealed the Tesla Semi at event held in Fremont, CA on Nov 16, 2017
• Elon explained the outsided contribution to emissions by diesel trucks vs the fleet
• Semi debuted w. impressive specs: 500+ miles range at full load, <2KWh/mi efficiency
• Tesla bolstered those claims with $0.07/KWh solar, shatter-proof glass, and 'platooning'
• One claim required Investors do some basic physiks (which Daimler Trucks CEO quickly denied)
  • "So what does Tesla Semi weigh?" - well, Tesla only told us indirectly, as follows:
  • Acceleration 0-60 mph in 20 s fully loaded (80K lbs) and 5 s unloaded
  • Sir Isaac Newton told us F = MA so some basic maths say Semi weighs ~20K lbs
• Elon later said Semi specs did not depend upon some miracle battery and were achievable with existing Panasonic 2170 cells (Tesla demonstrated 500mi loaded range in a Dec 01, 2022 video)
• Noted short-seller Bill Gates also famously denied Semi's abilities w/o showing his maths:
  • roon on X: "Gates argued that batteries would never be able to power large semitrucks and that solar energy would not be a major part of solving the climate problem. “I showed him the numbers... It’s an area where I clearly knew something that he didn’t.”" / X
  • Elon Musk on X: "@tszzl Gates must have had technical understanding at some point in his career, but has now left planet Earth. He kept speaking nonsense about how long range Semi was impossible, so I asked what his assumptions were for Wh/Mile of the vehicle and Wh/kg for the battery. He did not know." / X | (Sep 18, 2023)

Lesson 1: Build those vehicles which matter most for the Mission
Lesson 2: Do the math; Make an estimate; Create a Prototype (take your time to get it right)

2. Semi Delivery Launch Partner: PepsiCo - Modesto, California - "That's what I like"

• Tesla Semi project remained on the back-burner throughtout the Model 3 ramp, and was further delayed by suppliers (notably Panasonic slow expansion of battery cell production, but also by other industry suppliers for things as mundane as body parts)
• After Battery Day on Sep 22, 2020, Elon rightly made 4680 cells the production priority. Elon's mantra was 'it is pointless to introduce a new product when you don't have the parts to build it'
• Throughout these diversions, Tesla's partner for the Semi roll-out was PepsiCo/Fritolay in Modesto, CA. PepsiCo would recieve the 1st 30-odd Semis built from a prototype line near Giga Nevada (w.Panasonic 2170s), and also charging infrastructure at their CA locations
• Tesla is gaining real-world experience with Semi through this partnership, with an impressive public showing in the Sep 2023 "Run On Less" challenge for electric trucks

Lesson 3: Dance with the one what brung ya'.

3. Giga Nevada: "The Big Show"

• The Semi business model requires Tesla to become their own battery cell supplier
• The scale: 1,000KWh/Semi for 100K Semis per year is ~100 GWh/yr of cells, or ~4x what Panasonic produces currently at Giga Nevada (which largely goes to Model 3/Y)
• Semi ramp is a work in progress, but we already have a preview of the plot:
• Tesla has announced $3B plans to build the final production line for Semi at Giga Nevada
• this will include 4-or-5 manufacturing lines for 4680 cells, according to Elon
• that's enough cells for Semi (and likely enough for Tesla Optimus Bot, too)

Lesson 4: If you build it, they will come

Overall, Tesla became a much different and more mature company from the time of the Semi reveal to now. TLSA Market Cap has soared and swooned, multiple times. Elon continues to guide his ship, allocating his time to the projects that have the most impact on the Tesla Mission, and also on his broader goals.

This also meant that many relatively-late (formerly giddy) TSLA investors were propelled to higher highs and dragged thru lower lows. But as Elon has told us repeatedly, if you can not take volatility, please sell TSLA stock and don't buy it.

Conclusion: Semi remains an ongoing project at the end of 2023, and is on the verge of greatness

Next: Expanding the TAM: Low-hanging fruit on the Electricity Grid

Tomorrow's Topic:

Day 06: Six geese a-laying | Megapack To Excel

 

[NicoV]

I don't care too much about the snide personal attacks, neither the arrogance of some of the posters here who cannot countenance an argument against their own pre-conceptions and lack of experience

But I do worry that this costs a lot of potential Tesla sales, especially on the S & X, bought by folks used to these types of features. I'll wager the yoke, stalks and USS has put off a lot of buyers. Obviously Tesla realised the yoke was a big mistake and waked it back, but the others not. And yes, maybe in 6 months they'll release software updates that resolves these gripes, then we can all look back once day and laugh about it

The fact that all the Model S’s still in inventory in Belgium have a yoke supports your theory. I had to choose a car with a yoke too a couple of weeks ago in order to get it in time for the supercharging transfer.
I got used to the yoke for turning in a couple of days. Using the indicators will take some more time, but on small roundabouts its impossible to indicate which exit you’ll take.
I don’t see a big difference between the distance sensors and the vision implementation. I just got the christmas update and will try it out tomorrow. It looks very promising. To be honest, the distance sensors are not something I rely on a lot, I use the cameras.

 

[gillfoto]

I am old enough to have driven cars when very few were automatic, they had no A/C, cruise control was unheard of, they only had radio, seat belts in the back seat were optional, they had at least two built in ashtrays and just a sniff from the exhaust was enough to guarantee cancer. So I am clearly much more manly than you.

I am so old I remember seeing a TV commercial where the driver's legs powered the vehicle as there was no floor!

 

[gillfoto]

I must be a few years older. This is closer to what I remember driving early on:

We could only dream about radios and seat belts and ashtrays!

Great minds think alike, I swear I composed mine before seeing yours!

 

[MP3Mike]

Any insights for how the CT V2G changes or influences the battery warranty?

Unless I missed something Tesla hasn't said that the Cybertruck has V2G. They have said it has V2L and V2H. (Obviously it could do V2G if they wanted it to, but they haven't said that the Cybertruck can be part of a VPP yet.)

 

[Snerruc]

View attachment 1000429View attachment 1000432

For what it's worth - I want my Summon!

Reminds me of parking my Volvo in basement garages in Paris. Sometimes I got in and out via the sunroof.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1736471770096382098

Important for Q1 deliveries

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1736273688100749711

 

[Stretch2727]

It's the weekend and I am tired of reading all the USS posts.

Here is something more festive.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1736392156087009550

 

[15Peter20]

View attachment 1000429View attachment 1000432

For what it's worth - I want my Summon!

Just buy right hand drive. Sorted.

 

[MC3OZ]

I agree. If the chemistry advances have allowed 4680 cycles to approach, say, 1M miles and thus V2G cycles no longer are a liability to the battery warranty, then I'd be interested to hear that. Additionally, if that is true, I'd also like to know if the standard battery warranty is higher for the majority of owners that never utilize the V2G capability. Certainly if one never installs the extra HW to enable V2G, the battery warranty could certainly be extended beyond the current 100K to 150K offered today? It comes down to lifetime cycles regardless if they are mileage based or V2G based and I'm curious how Tesla will specify this...

Extending the cycle-life may be limited to 4680 cells produced at Austin, specifically:-

• Some of the chemistry changes for the million mile battery (Jeff Dahn)?
• Single crystal cathode from the Austin cathode plant?

If Tesla are offering V2H then they are comfortable with warranty issues, that could have done that anytime in the last 5 years, but battery warranty was odiously an issue.

 

[aronth5]

Interesting video on Optimus and the current state of robotic AI with snippets from an interview with from Bret Adcock, CEO of Figure A1. Figure AI is a small startup who is moving rapidly in this space expecting their robots doing real work in factories in 2024. It's a bit tedious to watch the whole video but the focus on the factory floor oportunities and the anticipated pace of development in the robotic industry is encouraging for anyone investing in Tesla.

Engineering the Impossible! (Valuating Teslabot Pt.1)

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1736509537710993601

 

[wipster]

I hope so. It's a great selling point for EVs, which is important for the mission.

But honestly, how often would it be used? Never where I live in the PNW, very reliable power here, primarily from the dams. Unless a transformer explodes or something like that.

Perhaps in Texas? You folks had a bad time a couple years with an ice storm yes? But still, how often? Or is it just a peace of mind thing?

 

[SmokyPeat]

But honestly, how often would it be used? Never where I live in the PNW, very reliable power here, primarily from the dams. Unless a transformer explodes or something like that.

Perhaps in Texas? You folks had a bad time a couple years with an ice storm yes? But still, how often? Or is it just a peace of mind thing?

Most power outages aren't a result of the utility failing to source enough power supply.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Interesting video on Optimus and the current state of robotic AI with snippets from an interview with from Bret Adcock, CEO of Figure A1. Figure AI is a small startup who is moving rapidly in this space expecting their robots doing real work in factories in 2024. It's a bit tedious to watch the whole video but the focus on the factory floor oportunities and the anticipated pace of development in the robotic industry is encouraging for anyone investing in Tesla.

Engineering the Impossible! (Valuating Teslabot Pt.1)

Two takeaways:

Factory bot precedes retail bot, for three good reasons.
- controlled environment
- single point of contact (one satisfied buyer of a thousand bots, not a thousand pernickety customers)
- economics, the bot is worth much more to the factory where it can work round the clock

Showtime is now. Low hanging fruit jobs are already within reach. Bot starts work now if it hasn’t already.

Dangerous time to be shorting imo. A single video of bots working real jobs is proof of concept and should force price-in.

 

[capster]

But honestly, how often would it be used? Never where I live in the PNW, very reliable power here, primarily from the dams. Unless a transformer explodes or something like that.

Perhaps in Texas? You folks had a bad time a couple years with an ice storm yes? But still, how often? Or is it just a peace of mind thing?

We get several power outages a year in my neighborhood on our island. We’re at a high latitude and get commensurately high winds which blow down branches from the many tall trees here, at times along with the trees themselves. My house is on the shore and a bit more exposed than most too. So power backup would be nice.

Though in the 3+ years I have lived here the outages have been less than a day long and most much shorter than that, so it hasn’t been a big problem (I gather there have been some outages that were much longer in previous years). Still, I have radiant heat using circulating hot water that is heated by burning propane thus power outages mean no heat (I have a wood burning fireplace as a backup).

The island power service is a line and will be replaced in the next couple of years with a loop that should be much more reliable.

I signed up for the solar roof and power walls when I moved here, but they’re not available here. Also, if I’m going to do upgrades I should start with replacing the windows.

I’m not sure how long I’ll stay either.

All this means that I like the range extender for the CT though I’d like it to be something that can be removed from the CT by the owner and used as a stand alone unit. However, I suspect this may not be the case as I saw, when I pre-ordered it with the CT, that it needs to be installed at a Tesla service center.