Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TesLeif]

I had a suspension problem on my 2020 MY, vin 15xxx. 40k miles. Made an appt about a suspension noise and Tesla immediately replaced it that afternoon. Service said it was a known problem and they were fixing them when reported. Have a 2023 MY now and the suspension is dramatically better.

Rob Maurer/Tesla Daily addresses the Reuters "investigation" and punches some holes in it... starting just after 6:40...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Day 10: Ten Lords A-Leaping | Teslabot FTW​

Part of 12 Days of Christmas - Tesla Edition a series (c) by the Artful Dodger, Dec 2023

Over this Yuletide season, I will post a daily installment focusing on Tesla products, past, present, and future (please note that I will express major themes as short-hand bullet points as I Yule tidy-up the loose ends). Here's the series so far:

Day 01: A Partridge in a Pear Tree | Roadster Proof of Concept
Day 02: 2 Turtle Doves | S/X Fraternal Twins go Mainstream
Day 03: 3 French Hens | Model 3 Bets the Company
Day 04: 4 Calling Birds | Model Y Built at Four Factories
Day 05: Five Golden Rings | Semi Breaks Physiks
Day 06: Six geese a-laying | Megapack To Excel
Day 07: Seven Swans a-Swimming | Cybertourdeforce
Day 08: Eight Maids A-Milking | Model 2 World Car
Day 09: Nine Ladies Dancing | Dojo as a Service[/HEADING]

Intro to Part 10: Ten Lords A-Leaping | Teslabot FTW​

Back on Tesla's first AI Day on Aug 19, 2021, the stage was graced with a dancing robot. This turned out to be BigE's girlfriend in a tight spandex suit, so of course I was immediately intrigued. How far were we, really, from the Sci-Fi dream of humanoid robots dancing among us? Doing the dangerous, dirty, and repetative work that no one wants to do? Helping us at home with the elderly, living and working among us, improving our quality of live? This was the challenge Tesla set out to face with its Optimus robot (oh, and PROFIT)

1. Tesla Vision​

• The core technology which powers Tesla real-world AI is the ability to perceive, model, and ultimately to understand the 3-D world which surrounds the AI agent (an AI with 'agency' or the ability to interact with the physical world around it). Thanks, Andrey Karpathy and FSD team.
• Other senses are now being added to the Optimus bot, such as proprioception (balance) and touch sensitivity on finger tips for fine motor control feedback
• I'm sure Optimus will have hearing soon (more on language use below)
• I'm absolutely certain we'll have smell/taste for *certain* dangerous jobs (whine-tasting)
• But it all comes back to core Tesla tech: AI/NN training from captured real-world data

Lesson 1: Seeing is Believing

2. Planning Makes Perfect: so what to do with those new hands?​

• Since the goal of the Tesalabot program is to create a humanlike robot, it makes sense that its mental abilities will progress through a series similar to human children. Let's dust off our Undergrad Pysch background:
• 4 Stages of Cognitive Development (Piaget's Theory)
  1. sensorimotor stage: (0–2 yrs) extends from birth to the acquisition of language. Experiences the world through vision and hearing, physical interactions with objects (ie: grasping and stepping). Progress from instincts to the beginning of symbolic thought
  2. preoperational stage: (2–7 yrs) mainly symbolic play, manipulating symbols. Evidenced by categorization errors like checkers as snacks, pieces of paper as plates, or a box being a table
  3. concrete operational stage: (7–11 yrs) Begins to solve problems logically, but only for concrete objects or events (abstract / hypothetical thinking has not yet developed). Learns rules such as conservation (ie: object permanence), demonstrates inductive reasoning, but struggles with deductive reasoning
  4. formal operational stage: (12+ yrs) logical use of symbols related to abstract concepts, including testing assumptions. Capable of hypothetical and deductive reasoning. Develops the ability to think about abstract concepts
• Optimus is like a precocious child, progressing though these stages at a stunning pace (thanks to Tesla engineers). I estimate we moved beyond Stages 1-2 (above) with the Gen 1 'bot, and are now in Stage 3 with the Gen 2 bot (as announced last week). We can clearly see the NN training process as a large excercise in training the agent in inductive reasoning
• The missing element with Optimus may be the language model, although this refers to the meaning of spoken words (obviously, Optimus has other communication abilities native to computers). Grok.AI may be the addition which takes it to Stage 4 in Cognitive Development.
• I expect a technical JV in NN / training by NeuraLink (human brain implants) and Teslabot. Seen that ST:TNG episode where Geordi 'mind-melds' with a robotic probe to dive deep into a planet's toxic atmosphere? Yeah, that tech is going to Mars, but stopping off at Deimos...

Lesson 2: How to Train Your Robot (like it was your child)

3. Lassie Come Home​

• Dojo will be the key way that Tesla monetizes the Optimus fleet by providing both generic abilities for the bot and customer special requests
• it will be important to prevent unauthorized use / reprogramming (expect block chain technology and a physical off-switch)
• This dependance on Tesla infrastructure will help ensure Tesla retains control of its AI agents in the real world
• Insert obligatory 3 laws of Robotics here, yada yada...

Lesson 3: Build-in a homing-instinct

Conclusion:​

Truly useful AI agents like Optimus (when proven safe and useful), will reproduce like catholic rabbits.: Everybody will want ten. We'll send them to work, we'll send them to the store, we'll watch them play sports, we'll send them to Mars. Meanwhile, Tesla data centers are quickly filling up with the kind of real-world data the may usher in the age of true AGI. What is the TAM of Optimus? What is the world's labor market? What is the market on the Moon, Mars, and the great beyond? Sky's not the limit (nor is SkyNet).

Next up: FSD spawns Robotaxi - Void where Prohibited

Tomorrow's Topic:

Day 11: Eleven Pipers Piping | FSD Or Bust​

 

[Cobos]

Another update from Norway
I haven't seen anyone else report on NAF's 2023 competition for the years best car purchase. What they before called car of the year. This is done by their magazine called Motor, which some of you know from their massive range tests they do every summer and winter. This is NAF (our AAA) magazine that comes out 4 times a year on paper and has a website with pretty high traffic. Think of Motor as a combination of Motortrend and Consumer Reports focused on regular people motoring needs and not really fancy sports car news.

Anyway, the competition is new this year, they used to choose the 10 best NEW cars that year and heavily focused on costs. This year they have 5 categories and allow any car available, as many cars come with updates that practically make them new without being new, so drawing the line was hard.
The 5 categories are
Small Car, Small Family Car, Medium Family Car, Large Family Car, Open Class (which is for all sorts of cars)

Small Car rankings: 1: Peugeot e-208, 2: Opel Corsa-E, 3: Toyota Yaris Cross 4x4

Small Family Car rankings: 1: Tesla Model 3 Highland, 2: VW ID-3 (this years upgraded version), 3 BMW i4 eDrive40

Medium Family Car rankings: 1: Tesla Model Y, 2: Hyundai Ioniq 5, 3: KIA EV6

Large Family Car rankings: 1: BMW iX, 2: MB EQE SUV, 3: Audi Q8 e-Tron, 6: Porsche Taycan Turismo, 7: Tesla Model S

Open Class: 1: Toyota GR Yaris, 2: MB EQE AMG, 3: BMW i4 M50

And the years very best car purchase: Tesla Model 3 Highland - Pros: Price, consumption/efficiency, interior quality (!) Cons: Stiffness, rear view, quality (paint and light cluster issues)

So pretty decent sweep for Tesla and Motor usually represents "most people" and looking at the sales figures you might say they are not saying anything new here. Their winners typically sell well here in Norway.

Source

 

[dedicatedtek]

catholic rabbits

when you said this, I thought of something totally different:

 

[Stochastic]

I had a suspension problem on my 2020 MY, vin 15xxx. 40k miles. Made an appt about a suspension noise and Tesla immediately replaced it that afternoon. Service said it was a known problem and they were fixing them when reported. Have a 2023 MY now and the suspension is dramatically better.

did Tesla charge anything or was it completely covered as warranty ?

 

[lascavarian]

Sandy Munro on Autoline live now. For those interested.

 

[Musskiah]

did Tesla charge anything or was it completely covered as warranty ?

Suspension is covered for the first 50k miles or 4 yrs. The MX front control arms were insufficiently engineered to handle the forces imparted on them; and each MX I have owned has had to have them replaced about every 25k miles - I actually had the control arms covered for a THIRD time at 65k miles in my 2016 MX 70D. My 2021 MX LR has had them replaced once at 25k miles and I extended the warranty to 75k miles as I anticipate replacing them again. I have heard there was a similar issue with the early MYs. My 2022 MY @19k miles has been flawless.

 

[Musskiah]

I have heard it said CS is biased because of philanthropic "donations" including the Ford Foundation, the Craig Newmark Philanthropies, and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation (GM). I find it most peculiar their bias seems to work in reverse here. I wonder what reduced Tesla's score - certainly not safety?

 

[aronth5]

Insurance | Tesla

Tesla vehicles are some of the most advanced on the road, and with Tesla Insurance you have access to tools that can help you drive safer. Sign up through the Tesla app and get insurance that rewards you for safe driving behavior.

www.tesla.com

Still comes up fine for me

https://www.tesla.com/support/insurance/real-time-insurance#how-it-works

Still shows available in

did Tesla charge anything or was it completely covered as warranty ?

Completely covered. It was clear from the service team they viewed the suspension problem as a safety concern. They were terrific.

 

[2daMoon]

Looks like the Moles are winning at Whack-a-Mole today.

Go Moles!

 

[AZRI11]

did Tesla charge anything or was it completely covered as warranty ?

Front upper control arms would get water inside their ball joint and that resulted in a loud creaking sound but not a safety issue, with some exceptions. Tesla service uses windshield adhesive to better seal the ball joint on older upper control arms. Current generation of control arms don't have this issue.

 

[JustSaying]

Click on the Discover tab.

View attachment 1001794

I have Tesla insurance for my Model S Plaid in California (and it was $1,000 cheaper than Amica!)

 

[Fred42]

Another update from Norway
I haven't seen anyone else report on NAF's 2023 competition for the years best car purchase. What they before called car of the year. This is done by their magazine called Motor, which some of you know from their massive range tests they do every summer and winter. This is NAF (our AAA) magazine that comes out 4 times a year on paper and has a website with pretty high traffic. Think of Motor as a combination of Motortrend and Consumer Reports focused on regular people motoring needs and not really fancy sports car news.

Anyway, the competition is new this year, they used to choose the 10 best NEW cars that year and heavily focused on costs. This year they have 5 categories and allow any car available, as many cars come with updates that practically make them new without being new, so drawing the line was hard.
The 5 categories are
Small Car, Small Family Car, Medium Family Car, Large Family Car, Open Class (which is for all sorts of cars)

Small Car rankings: 1: Peugeot e-208, 2: Opel Corsa-E, 3: Toyota Yaris Cross 4x4

Small Family Car rankings: 1: Tesla Model 3 Highland, 2: VW ID-3 (this years upgraded version), 3 BMW i4 eDrive40

Medium Family Car rankings: 1: Tesla Model Y, 2: Hyundai Ioniq 5, 3: KIA EV6

Large Family Car rankings: 1: BMW iX, 2: MB EQE SUV, 3: Audi Q8 e-Tron, 6: Porsche Taycan Turismo, 7: Tesla Model S

Open Class: 1: Toyota GR Yaris, 2: MB EQE AMG, 3: BMW i4 M50

And the years very best car purchase: Tesla Model 3 Highland - Pros: Price, consumption/efficiency, interior quality (!) Cons: Stiffness, rear view, quality (paint and light cluster issues)

So pretty decent sweep for Tesla and Motor usually represents "most people" and looking at the sales figures you might say they are not saying anything new here. Their winners typically sell well here in Norway.

Source

Stiffness? I'd read that the Highland has an easier-riding suspension. Still an issue for some?

What are light cluster issues?

 

[Cobos]

Stiffness? I'd read that the Highland has an easier-riding suspension. Still an issue for some?

What are light cluster issues?

I'm quoting Motor not saying what I think, just to clarify. They mentioned stiffness, but many Teslas have issues with the plastic on mostly the rear clusters cracking up and allowing moisture/rain to enter. Tesla Norway has not generally accepted that as a warranty issue, instead claimed certain car washes are the culprits. Keeping in mind we have lousy weather 60% of the year in some parts of Norway, so washing the car is a thing. Similar issue with paint defects that Tesla does not want to cover on warranty.

 

[EVMeister]

Epic Cyber lightshow

 

[FireMedic]

Front upper control arms would get water inside their ball joint and that resulted in a loud creaking sound but not a safety issue, with some exceptions. Tesla service uses windshield adhesive to better seal the ball joint on older upper control arms. Current generation of control arms don't have this issue.

A Grease gun with a needle adapter ($20 at kragen) every 30k miles keeps the mechanic away on those ball joints. Ask me how I know.

No different than any other car. There’s gonna be failure points. people just love to point out Tesla failure points because people like me make such a big deal about how they don’t need maintenance.

So when regular maintenance (unrelated to powertrain) that any vehicle would need pops up, they throw a fit.

 

[Singuy]

I have heard it said CS is biased because of philanthropic "donations" including the Ford Foundation, the Craig Newmark Philanthropies, and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation (GM). I find it most peculiar their bias seems to work in reverse here. I wonder what reduced Tesla's score - certainly not safety?View attachment 1001871

Tesla usually scores low in reliability because it's very software centric. Every time the wipers doesn't work right or a the MCU freezes, they get dinged for reliability. If you ever get into the Tesla software/FSD group on FB, you see many confused people not understanding why X, Y, or Z is happening and they think it's broken.

Another good example is condensation around the headlights. MSM had made a big deal enough to get people to think it's due to poor build quality when in reality, the lights cover are now ventilated due to them being LEDs. This condensation is not due to leak but extreme temp changes and happens with EVER brand that has LED lights. Tesla gets so many service calls about this that now it's in the manual.

The powertrain is rock solid, everything else may not be kind to those who are not forgiving/or willing to tinker/figuring it out. All though there maybe some build issues, MSM has amplified every issue and non-issue about Tesla which makes their customers very self-conscious about a lot of issues they wouldn't have cared about if it was another brand. Plus Tesla is not doing themselves any favors when many features are experimental like smart summon or distance gauging without USS.

 

[navguy12]

Absolutely. One of the accessories I am looking forward to will be an atmospheric condenser to provide a continuous supply of water for the occupants while they ride out the interesting times.

Biodefense air, StarLink to orbit, some solar for incidentals, a little atmospheric water, Optimus perimeter security and the end of days might just be tolerable

Don’t forget the Liptons cup-of-soup.

 

[wipster]

A clarification. There is no such thing as "Volkswagen Auto Group"
It is Volkswagen AG today in English:
Back in the 1960's it was "Volkswagenwerk Aktiengesellschaft (usually abbreviated to Volkswagenwerk AG)." from Wikipedia.
Now it is Volkswagen AG. The Aktiengeselleschaft simply translates to English as "shares company" and means roughly the same thing as 'Incorporated (INC)' in English. The public positioning is as Volkswagen Group now because there are so many subsidiaries and distinct brands.

From the Tesla shareholders perspective it is important to deeply understand entities such as VAG, Toyota and Stellantis, not in the narrow competitive vision of cars and truck competition but rather to understand that these three giants have each one unique political and geographic spread with economic impact on major economies centered more on their employment and distribution core influences than on their competitiveness in any given market.

When we consider Tesla we must clearly understand that the core of Tesla competitiveness is in technologies and designs dependent on electrical energy . We spend nearly all our time discuss cars because that is the core of the relationship for most of us. We're missing the major issues in doing so.

The Tesla competition is more from Siemens, BYD, National Grid and the myriad suppliers of peaker power plants and grid services than it is of those old giant car companies.

https://www.cleanegroup.org/wp-content/uploads/The-Peaker-Problem.pdf

This is now growing in the way we all thought it would back when JB Straubel began discussing it back in 2011/2012 or so. Even or twelve years is an eternity in Tesla time but we've arrived. Still we obsess over the auto side as if that is the core of the future. It is not. As important and as exciting as those vehicles are, they simply FSD/autonomy or not, even Optimus, really are not the biggest market.

Peaker Power Plant replacements with storage and grid services outweigh the entire global automotive market. When we consider the potential of Virtual Power Plants and distributed energy generation facilitated by autobiddexr-style grid services and large scale storage we have the stuff of global enormity that dwarfs automotive.

Elon knows that, most of us do, but cars are sexy to most of us so we think about them.
Now we need to realize that dedicated Tesla Energy threads are excellent, especially for technically oriented subjects. Factually Tesla's future is now dominated by Tesla Energy so we need to realize that all our forecasts that are predicated on cars and trucks really miss the reality of the world today.

Submitted for Posts of Particular Merit.

I honestly think we should set up separate threads (perhaps read only) for both unk45 and Arfful for most of their posts. I always learn something when I read most of them, particularly this one from unk and lodger's excellent Tesla Days of Xmas.

Glad we have so many knowledgeable posters worldwide (!) but specifically these two, both a gift to this forum!

 

[FireMedic]

Submitted for Posts of Particular Merit.

I honestly think we should set up separate threads (perhaps read only) for both unk45 and Arfful for most of their posts. I always learn something when I read most of them, particularly this one from unk and lodger's excellent Tesla Days of Xmas.

Glad we have so many knowledgeable posters worldwide (!) but specifically these two, both a gift to this forum!

Problem with that is; posters like artful and unk often add color to the posts here. I’d hate to have to go elsewhere for that commentary.

Just ignore and scroll brotha. Ignore and scroll.