Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

Don’t forget the cat in BELL, BOOK AND CANDLE.

Reminds me of a joke I heard again yesterday from a great National Lampoon album from the early 70's called "Radio Dinner"... 50 years later and I still have the words memorized!

So, what do you do for fun?
Everyday I go to the park and feed the pigeons.
Oh yeah? What do you feed them?
Well, everyday I go down to the park and I feed the pigeons... to my cat.


That album truly made me even more demented.

Merry day before Christmas and Happy Holidays to all. You folks are like an alternate family some times. Not quite like Bizzaro Seinfeld, but close!

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Hey, in the spirit of Christmas....

And for my fellow Rush fans...

Hey, 10 bucks IS 10 bucks.


And finally, one that makes me think of Elon (vid nothing to do with it-but better than some of the other ones of this song). Spirit with a vision...is a dream with a mission.

And finally-one from the first shuttle launch.

And that's it for my off-topic posts for the night.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

All I wanted for Christmas this year was for TSLA to be up 133.62% YTD

 

[aronth5]

So, FSD 12 is still Beta, contrary to what Elon said?

FSD V12 may very well go out to customers as beta but jumping the gun when FSD is only with employees isn't a fair criticism of Elon. I suspect you'll have your chance to complain but why not wait in the spirit of Christmas.

 

[Artful Dodger]

And that's it for my off-topic posts for the night.

Lol, since were taking Bob and Doug of the Great White North on a Tesla forum, I thought fer sure you'd show this clip:

NASA Astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley take Tesla Model X to the SpaceX Launch:​

Cheers, Eh!

 

[CaliBear1]

Its tough to say which is the bigger opportunity when all this stuff really takes off.

Megapack revenue is on the order of a few $Ms per Megapack (not including recurrent rev, residuals, or energy arbitrage [autobidder]) eventually on the order of several 100k of units being produced annually. This certainly puts the revenue potential in the single $T, perhaps eventually tens of $T annually (assuming costs for Megapack don't decline 90% by mid century or something).

Optimus revenue is on the order of several $10k per unit, on the order of 10s of millions of units annually, eventually, perhaps even 100s of millions. This also puts the annual revenue opportunity in the single $T, if not tens of $T as well.

Optimus has endless recurrent revenue streams that can layer on top of base functionality...

I find it difficult to truly know which is the larger potential. Elon told energy companies to build rapidly because expects future energy needs to something like 5x. I would expect, similarly, bots won't just replace human labor, but will probably 5-10x by sort of mid century.

It's not a crazy stretch to think Optimus will be mining the asteroid belt for vast quantities of precious metals in the next decade.

 

[MartinAustin]

Just a bit of shareholder sleuthing... I went by my local delivery center just now to see if there are any Cybertrucks sitting around... and there are TWELVE CYBERTRUCKS. Two in the cleaned-up delivery area and ten more mucky ones in the back. Had to use a wide-angle lens to get them all in Unless there is some sort of advantage Austin has due to factory proximity, Tesla will definitely make an impressive Q4 Cybertruck delivery number

 

[Artful Dodger]

I went by my local delivery center just now to see if there are any Cybertrucks sitting around... and there are TWELVE

Cool! Did you notice if any of them were missing the trim pieces from the outside edges of the vault? (that seems to be the case with the Giga Texas 49)

BTW, I swung by my local Delivery Centre this evening, and the main lot was completely empty. Zero Models 3 or Ys. There were 5 Plaid S/X sittng on the side which looked to be new arrivals, at least 2 of them had 'Take Delivery Today' windshield notices. Nice Xmas gift that, at over $184K CAD in Ultra-Red...

Cheers!

 

[MartinAustin]

Cool! Did you notice if any of them were missing the trim pieces from the outside edges of the vault? (that seems to be the case with the Giga Texas 49)

BTW, I swung by my local Delivery Centre this evening, and the main lot was completely empty. Zero Models 3 or Ys. There were 5 Plaid S/X sittng on the side which looked to be new arrivals, at least 2 of them had 'Take Delivery Today' windshield notices. Nice Xmas gift that, at over $184K CAD in Ultra-Red...

Cheers!

I was gazing in through somewhat dirty windows... but from what I saw they were all complete. TBH I could not really see the top edges of the sails.

 

[UkNorthampton]

FUD, follow the money. Note that other tweets mention Saudi investment of $200 million into Penske Media.

The #RollingStone magazine lets long-time #Tesla hater Ed Niedermeyer write hit pieces against Tesla.The RollingStone is owned by Penske Media Corp (PMC).PMC is related to Penske Automotive Group which is 1 of the 6 publicly traded car dealerships in the US.-> Always check the sources and their motives!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1738856638398808078

 

[Max Plaid]

I am becoming bullish on Optimus 2. This appears ready for production. Naturally, the first tasks for O2 will be to build O2. The ramp could be slow because it is more than just ramping up production but training and advancing the product itself, so that human participation in production is minimal

Are you sure? Consider the old tale of the chess board and rice...

If one O2 could assemble one O2, given available parts, as each one is completed it would then begin assembling another. Then it all depends how long each one takes, how much down-time for charging, etc., but in very simplistic terms it's a straght ^2 exponential

So if each O2 takes 1 month to assemble then by the end of one year you'd have 2048 O2, if thy just took one week then end of year one there's be more than 33million, and if each one took a day, then we'd have two quadrillion two hundred fifty-one trillion seven hundred ninety-nine billion eight hundred thirteen million six hundred eighty-five thousand two hundred fifty O2's

However that might be more raw materials than we have on this planet and may need to wait for asteroid expoitation!

Anyway, the gist is that if the 02 can build the O2 then the ramp will be anything but linear, furthermore, remember that you train one O2, then the rest get that knowledge OTA, it goes very fast

 

[madodel]

FUD, follow the money. Note that other tweets mention Saudi investment of $200 million into Penske Media.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1738856638398808078

In fairness he was hit in the head at least once before he lost all the family's money.

 

[EVCollies]

Just a bit of shareholder sleuthing... I went by my local delivery center just now to see if there are any Cybertrucks sitting around... and there are TWELVE CYBERTRUCKS. Two in the cleaned-up delivery area and ten more mucky ones in the back. Had to use a wide-angle lens to get them all in Unless there is some sort of advantage Austin has due to factory proximity, Tesla will definitely make an impressive Q4 Cybertruck delivery number
View attachment 1002866
View attachment 1002867
View attachment 1002868

Our local service center claimed the first two Colorado Cybertrucks were delivered on Thursday!

 

[traxila]

It's not a crazy stretch to think Optimus will be mining the asteroid belt for vast quantities of precious metals in the next decade.

So by 2033?

No, that is a crazy stretch. “Vast quantities”? The infrastructure required for space mining will take 20 years to build out, assuming all goes well. And what about Mars? Or precious metals right here?

Optimus could be mining right here if that is the case. And working all the &*$# jobs no one wants to do.

 

[AndrewZ]

FUD, follow the money. Note that other tweets mention Saudi investment of $200 million into Penske Media.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1738856638398808078

We need to be especially incredulous of their automotives

 

[Baumisch]

This video, by Scott Walter and Herbert, discusses the Tesla Bot Optimus Gen 2 that was revealed at Tesla AI Day 2. Scott is a robotics expert who has been following the development of the Tesla Bot closely.

Here are some of the key points discussed in the video:

The weight of the Tesla Bot Optimus Gen 2 is unknown, but Scott estimates that it is around 108 pounds based on his analysis of the actuators and other components. Tesla's original target weight for the bot was 125 pounds.
Scott believes that Tesla has been able to achieve the 125-pound target weight, or even gone below it. He points out that Tesla added two more actuators to the bot, which would have increased the weight, but they must have made weight reductions in other areas to compensate.
One of the Easter eggs that Scott found is that the Tesla Bot Optimus Gen 2 now has the ability to bend its toes. This is a significant improvement over the previous generation, which could only walk flat-footed.
The Tesla Bot Optimus Gen 2 also has sensors in its fingertips, which will help it to better grip and manipulate objects.
Scott believes that the hardware for the Tesla Bot Optimus Gen 2 is not the rate-limiting factor at this point. He believes that the main challenge is with the AI and getting the bot to be reliable and able to perform tasks safely and efficiently.
Scott estimates that Tesla will be able to produce hundreds of Tesla Bot Optimus Gen 2 units by the end of 2024.
Overall, the video provides a lot of insights into the Tesla Bot Optimus Gen 2 and its potential. Scott's analysis is based on his expertise in robotics and his close following of the Tesla Bot project. While there are still some unknowns, such as the exact weight of the bot, the video provides a positive outlook on the future of the Tesla Bot.

I hope this summary is helpful

 

[unk45]

We need to be especially incredulous of their automotives

Anyone looking at anything Penske should be very cautious about generalizing in any way.
First: Penske Companies
Second: Penske Auto Group

Penske Companies

Tradition of Excellence and High Performance

www.gopenske.com

There is a tendency to generalize that is fraught, especially with all things Penske.
They do not resemble any other major auto dealer group, partly because of their range geographical and in business lines, partly because of the deep history they have with truck leasing and ancillary sales, service and fleet management.
Few notice how deep their ties are with Mercedes-Benz Group, originally with trucks but with cars too. Even fewer may note or even know that they've actually embraced agency model sales and distribution with both cars and trucks, that is, the manufacturer owns the vehicles and Penske receives commission and servicing revenue. Many large groups have resisted those fiercely.
They are acutely aware of EV issues, although mostly not disclosing much. Clue: They are NOT resisting agency models. With increasing commercial vehicle adoption of EV and Penske experience with fleet management and leasing, it will be instructive to keep close attention to them, mostly with the US and UK, plus mostly the Prairie Provinces of Canada too.

I have not previously mentioned them here although I've followed them for years. Frankly their corporate structure is so organized that clear and complete views are not easy to accomplish, although most Penske entities are public and/or have securitized debt, so their financial structures are not hidden, just requiring some effort.

 

[Usain]

For years auto wipe worked fine for me. Got an update and now the wipers only work in the garage.

Merry Christmas everyone!

I mentioned a few days ago that all I want for Christmas is for the auto wipers to get fixed.

Christmas update was installed a couple of days ago and now they seem to be working great.

Now we can look forward to FSD 12 and a happy new year!

 

[dhanson865]

This video, by Scott Walter and Herbert, discusses the Tesla Bot Optimus Gen 2 that was revealed at Tesla AI Day 2. Scott is a robotics expert who has been following the development of the Tesla Bot closely.

Gen 2 wasn't revealed at AI day. Gen 2 was revealed in a video in Dec 2023 unrelated to a "day".

AI Day 2 was in 2022, and was when they revealed Gen 0 aka the Prototype.

Spoiler: Gen 0 aka Prototype September 2022

Spoiler: Gen 1 March 2023

Spoiler: Gen 2 Dec 2023

 

[Artful Dodger]

Gen 2 wasn't revealed at AI day. Gen 2 was revealed in a video in Dec 2023 unrelated to a "day".

Dr. Scott Walker does excellent work analyzing the Optimus bot actuators and electricals, but he's made an incorrect assumption that Optimus bot will use 2170 battery cells, saying it will have over 200 of them. This is contrary to what Tesla showed us in its 'see-thru' diagram of Optimus, which clearly had 4 rows of 7 cells each (nominally a 14S-2P battery: (see details mid-right here)

Further, Scott misses why Tesla will absolutely not use 2170s (presumably from Panasonic). That is, Tesla would have to buy the cells from Panasonic (increasing cost). Tesla is planning to build 4680 cells in Sparks, NV where Optimus will be built, so 4680 supply won't be an issue for mass production. Nor is supply an issue right now in Palo Alto where Telsa is building the prototypes, because they also have a 4680 cell pilot line just a few miles away on Kato Road in Fremont.

Just goes to show that Scott spends his time actually working instead of watching Yootoobz all day... But Herbert defs has no 'xcuses.

Cheers!