Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

This poll has now closed. Interesting result. Painted pressings were most popular but didn't receive the majority.

Building on this result, here is a new poll:

Poll: let's build the Robotaxi

This might have been too ambitious. I will probably do several smaller M2 polls following this one.

Early indications suggest people think Robotaxi will be a four seater. That would certainly make the platform ready for a preceding 4/5 seat M2. And therefore not this:

Has the introduction of M2 increased the eventual size of the Robotaxi?

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1739821691532910642

This is small potatoes. However, this is the second time Uber have announced the use of Tesla's in a month. This could blow up like Hertz if the next one is bigger quantities.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

This poll has now closed. Interesting result. Painted pressings were most popular but didn't receive the majority.

View attachment 1003355
Building on this result, here is a new poll:

Poll: let's build the Robotaxi

This might have been too ambitious. I will probably do several smaller M2 polls following this one.

Early indications suggest people think Robotaxi will be a four seater. That would certainly make the platform ready for a preceding 4/5 seat M2. And therefore not this:
View attachment 1003360
Has the introduction of M2 increased the eventual size of the Robotaxi?

In order to avoid billionaire door syndrome, I had a thought recently of maybe doing something similar to the side doors on a minivan. That way they can still open in a small space, and possibly even be longer than you'd normally expect for a small car (i.e. if there's a larger frunk and no trunk, just 2 rows of seats, and a single long door each side). Would probably need some interesting geometry for where the sliding rails go, but probably cheaper than any other non-traditional doors, and avoids the annoying long door problem for a 2-door 4-seater.

 

[WarpedOne]

Fail of the century #2: Peugeot 1007

https://www.topgear.com/car-news/fail-century/fail-century-2-peugeot-1007

https://www.topgear.com/sites/default/files/2022/02/11072541%20copy.jpg

 

[CorneliusXX]

Some info about Cybertruck orders as gathered by Sawyer. Interesting that about 1/4 have opted for the range extender.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1739851972075753507

This is good news. It shows that people are willing to pay up an additional $16k for additional range while sacrificing some bed space to do so. I wouldn't be surprised to see a factory long range version in the next year or so if this ratio holds.

 

[jamaatta]

This is good news. It shows that people are willing to pay up an additional $16k for additional range while sacrificing some bed space to do so. I wouldn't be surprised to see a factory long range version in the next year or so if this ratio holds.

Or they are just waiting for next version of 4680-battery.

 

[bruce4000]

This is good news. It shows that people are willing to pay up an additional $16k for additional range while sacrificing some bed space to do so. I wouldn't be surprised to see a factory long range version in the next year or so if this ratio holds.

while range extender takes up some bed room, no worse than 5th wheel setups. At some point I would hope Tesla will add Silicon to 4680 and get to 500 miles without extender.

 

[15Peter20]

Apparently, the robot rebellion has started:

Tesla robot ATTACKS an engineer at company's Texas factory during violent malfunction - leaving 'trail of blood' and forcing workers to hit emergency shutdown button

bullish

Ugh. The Daily Fail is one of the very worst rags in existence.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1739903188843597983

 

[CorneliusXX]

Or they are just waiting for next version of 4680-battery.

The next version is definitely needed. Tesla still has to make the decision for longer range trucks though. If cell density improves they have the choice of creating a truck with the same range using fewer cells and having higher production overall vs same # trucks and cells but each one with greater range. I think the sales data makes the latter more achievable if there is a proven market.

 

[cliff harris]

Is it just me who thinks that both Highland and Juniper are all about reduced manufacturing time and costs, and have zero to do with boosting sales through cosmetics?
I'm sure that there are some people who will now buy a 3/Y because they have this slightly better feature-set, but TBH none of it is groundbreaking. In fact, I'd reject one because I'd prefer to have stalks.

I think the few cosmetic changes that are included are really just the icing on the manufacturing cake. The model Y and 3 still look like super cutting-edge cars, certainly not anything that was 'dated' or in need of a cosmetic refresh.

We will not really know the answer until Q1 financials, when A serious number of highlands have been made, and we will not know the full impact until every factory has swapped over to highland AND juniper. I would not be surprised to see the profit margins on both vehicles start to trend upwards over the next 12 months. There is no way Elon would ok a refresh of their two top models unless it meant serious manufacturing improvements and efficiencies. Knowing Elon, he is even thinking 'how can we make this part more easily assembled by optimus' already.

 

[Gigapress]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1739903188843597983

Correlation does not imply causation. The gray line for “normal market growth” is nonsense because the trend was never linear in the past. The automotive market has suffered many severe recessions throughout history. Attributing the current recession to a particular cause requires a lot more evidence to rule out other possibilities. I think Tony Seba’s theory has merit and will play out eventually, but to me it’s unclear whether that process has substantially started yet. The orange fossil fuel vehicle demand line on the chart isn’t even accurate for the historical data. Sales dropped sharply in 2020 followed by a gradual rebound in the years since. Then there’s the chip shortages and general supply chain issues that disrupted the supply side which makes accurately assessing demand inherently more difficult.

Here’s US market data for illustration (from Statista). The automotive market ebbs and flows. In 2017 oil was $45/barrel. Oil prices directly and indirectly affect short-term demand for ICEVs. Credit was more available then too. Economic growth was strong and consumer confidence was higher.

 

[FreqFlyer]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1739903188843597983

Would like to know where "Lars" got their feel good info. Car sales in the US were going at a nice clip and then COVID happened. Next year is already being predicted to be a good year for consumers as for the first time dealers will have inventory and deals and leases will be competitive again.

 

[mongo]

This is good news. It shows that people are willing to pay up an additional $16k for additional range while sacrificing some bed space to do so. I wouldn't be surprised to see a factory long range version in the next year or so if this ratio holds.

I'm not sure there is much room to expand the current pack, unless they remove 100mm of ground clearance. Need those additional cell energy density increases.

We're getting Cybertruck for lower footprint travel trailer hauling, so range over cubic feet of bed space (still went Beast though). Worst case, we get a utility trailer for lumber runs. As age increases, I shift from pick it up myself to having it delivered anyway.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Is it just me who thinks that both Highland and Juniper are all about reduced manufacturing time and costs, and have zero to do with boosting sales through cosmetics?
I'm sure that there are some people who will now buy a 3/Y because they have this slightly better feature-set, but TBH none of it is groundbreaking. In fact, I'd reject one because I'd prefer to have stalks.

I think the few cosmetic changes that are included are really just the icing on the manufacturing cake. The model Y and 3 still look like super cutting-edge cars, certainly not anything that was 'dated' or in need of a cosmetic refresh.

We will not really know the answer until Q1 financials, when A serious number of highlands have been made, and we will not know the full impact until every factory has swapped over to highland AND juniper. I would not be surprised to see the profit margins on both vehicles start to trend upwards over the next 12 months. There is no way Elon would ok a refresh of their two top models unless it meant serious manufacturing improvements and efficiencies. Knowing Elon, he is even thinking 'how can we make this part more easily assembled by optimus' already.

Tesla faces the same market pressures as any automaker. And must make "changes" to keep the product line fresh. Do you think Highland M3 would have received the same acclaim and social media buzz at the Munich if debuted with fresh interior and feature set but the same exterior? Present Model 3 is on its third set of wheel designs, Why? Sameness does not sell no matter how cool the latest software update was.

I agree with you on the cost reduction question. I wonder how Tesla got there because they did improve the car noticeably. Apparently did not go to giga castings which would have been a big cost saver (jury still out if Fremont M3s move to giga casting). Maybe got a better volume deal from OEM on the acoustic glass, so Tesla was able to use more of it at a lower price. Same with the speakers OEM, more speakers but at a lower unit price. The dash has less pieces yet made out of better materials, same with the doors. No doubt some hard negotiations to achieve better materials at a lower cost. Maybe rearranging the manufacturing processes yields more cars per hour. Hence the shutdown , moving stations and robots around to improve the work flow. Many things we will never know, but as you stated will be seen in the financials.

 

[SunCatcher]

Some info about Cybertruck orders as gathered by Sawyer. Interesting that about 1/4 have opted for the range extender.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1739851972075753507

Didn't think my reservation was that far forward, but I've received an invitation to go ahead and order.

Not quite ready to pull the trigger this early on though... so will hold off.

I wonder how many others are doing the same?

 

[FreqFlyer]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1739357360806613174

Let the speculation begin

My guess, it debuts next summer and deliveries 6-12 months later. Initial orders will shut down the website.

 

[FreqFlyer]

China getting a refreshed Y in the near future?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1739805722538291586

A site was reporting the Highland Model 3 US debut has been pushed back to the summer of 24. I wonder if the plan is to have 2024 Highland 3 and Juniper MY to debut at the same time. With a big debut show planned for later next year.

 

[JimS]

Quite a few parallels with Lithium-ion, TSLA. and SpaceX

So how does Tesla as a doiftrinbuter compare with Moderna as a doiftrinbuter?

P.S. & Happy New Year!

 

[y_naught]

Didn't think my reservation was that far forward, but I've received an invitation to go ahead and order.

Not quite ready to pull the trigger this early on though... so will hold off.

I wonder how many others are doing the same?

View attachment 1003415

What were the first 6 digits of your reservation number, if you don’t mind sharing?