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History has shown that the whole “putting people out of work” thing is seriously overblown.
Ever without humanoid robots, the auto factories of today use less than half the workers per unit of output of a factory from the 1980s.
The economy always adapts. No serious individual believes technological progress should be held back for the sake of preserving jobs.

Add to this the steep downward slope of the cost of energy going forward and it is clear how the cost of goods and services will be less due to the multiple instances of energy costs reaching near zero as Wind, Solar, and Battery systems are deployed. (energy cost reductions at multiple levels of farming, housing, construction, shipping, etc.)

Anyone worried about the effects of humanoid robots causing a future problem should spend some time reviewing Tony Seba/ReThink X videos on YouTube and mentally grazing on the ReThink X website to get a high-altitude view of how this future of abundance can unfold.

Buckle your seat belts and return your seat backs and trays to their upright postion. We will be crossing the paradigm shift event horizon momentarily.
 
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On a more serious note and forward looking (I haven’t yet seen these implications being discussed yet).
Tesla bot is coming, no doubt.
But the enormous positive impact it will have on Tesla and TSLA is not the only thing heading towards us.

If Teslabot replaces human factory work at a big scale, it will put a LOT of people out of work, not only at Tesla, but everywhere.
That is going to have serious social consequences and likely negative bias towards Tesla (people always searching where to put the blame).
I think it is important that Tesla will not only look at the technical side, but also at the best way on how this might be prevented.
For people involved this could be a generous arrangement when replaced, depending on the amount of years working at the company.
But that is just a quick thought, there may be many more good and creative solutions.
However, this putting an enormous amount of people out of work will need serious attention.
Main Stream Media is already putting out hit pieces and Optimus hasn't even shipped yet. I expect to see far more FUD than Tesla vehicles ever received.
 
On a more serious note and forward looking (I haven’t yet seen these implications being discussed yet).
Tesla bot is coming, no doubt.
But the enormous positive impact it will have on Tesla and TSLA is not the only thing heading towards us.

If Teslabot replaces human factory work at a big scale, it will put a LOT of people out of work, not only at Tesla, but everywhere.
That is going to have serious social consequences and likely negative bias towards Tesla (people always searching where to put the blame).
I think it is important that Tesla will not only look at the technical side, but also at the best way on how this might be prevented.
For people involved this could be a generous arrangement when replaced, depending on the amount of years working at the company.
But that is just a quick thought, there may be many more good and creative solutions.
However, this putting an enormous amount of people out of work will need serious attention.
Tesla merely existing and innovating in the land of legacy ICE and dealerships, along with the transition to EVs, is going to put enormous numbers of people out of work.

Tesla adopting Optimus is more likely to reduce hiring for new lines going forward and backfilling attrition than it is to put current Tesla employees out of work.
 
Tesla merely existing and innovating in the land of legacy ICE and dealerships, along with the transition to EVs, is going to put enormous numbers of people out of work.

Tesla adopting Optimus is more likely to reduce hiring for new lines going forward and backfilling attrition than it is to put current Tesla employees out of work.

Optimus robot deployment will also provide new job opportunities for a few meat sacks (humans) throughout the design, production, delivery, training, and operational stages.
 
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Considering the last few weeks of news stories, my 2024 prediction is practically guaranteed, so here it goes: Reuters/Bloomberg/CNBC/etc totally take the gloves off in 2024 and reveal “from unnamed sources close to the matter” that Elon Musk is actually Adolf Hitler reincarnated, secretly placed in power by Putin, to disrupt elections worldwide using fascist hacker bots that disseminate fake news on unsuspecting consumers. Additionally, stories of Musk and his Optimus robots killing innocent immigrant women and children will tear the internet to pieces, while images of a shirtless Tesla CEO with a bunch of Russian hookers urinating on a bed in a Moscow hotel in which Obama had allegedly slept will crash social media sites globally. Reuters will have an EXCLUSIVE expose revealing how Tesla drivers are nothing more than goose-stepping, sieg heiling racist brainwashed cultish foot soldiers with Neuralink implants who drive ticking time bombs for vehicles and unknowingly do Musk’s diabolical bidding of perpetuating a global race war. Smartphone users with college degrees and an unhealthy fixation on identity politics will crumple into a heap, sobbing uncontrollably as visions of an impending Musk-led holocaust dance in their heads. Unsure of who to condemn, i.e., Tesla drivers or Antifa terrorists, consumers turn to Google and Facebook and Wikipedia for guidance, and are informed that, sadly, for public health and national security reasons, it is time to censor the internet for awhile (but in truth it’s just to prevent the carefully constructed simulation of national sovereignty/democracy/free press from totally unravelling). Markets crash, TSLA subsequently goes to zero (maybe even negative!) this summer or fall, Covid makes a comeback, TMC investor roundtable devolves into a cacophony of howling and gnashing of teeth, and an Age of Darkness envelops the globe for a couple of months, like how that Netflix movie with self-crashing Teslas depicts, with the internet mostly down, but with a few pockets of resistance, like TMC, surviving. But then, out of left field, Uber orders 100K Teslas at the end of October, and miraculously TSLA reaches $850/share by November or December of 2024. TSLA investors rejoice!!! Reuters will publicly announce that “mistakes were made” with regard to the exclusive about Tesla drivers, and that nothing more than a couple of rogue employees slipped the story to the presses. Reuters will express condolences for any harm done, and the CEO will step down in shame. A retraction will quietly be published a few months after the fact.
 
Optimus robot deployment will also provide new job opportunities for a few meat sacks (humans) throughout the design, production, delivery, training, and operational stages.
Sure, but that count needs to be lower than the number of human robots in service replace or it's not a business savvy use of automation (unless robots are used to reduce risk of injury).
 
Here is what the IRS is saying about models that qualify for the tax credit this year.

2024Credits.png


Of course, Cybertruck will be added soon and the Bolt doesn't have a 2024 model. Tesla and the F-150 Lightning are the only high-volume vehicles that get the full credit.

The other thing to notice is what is completely missing. Mustang Mach E gets nothing. No credit for any of VW, Kia, Hyundai, Polestar, Porche, Audi, Mercedes, BMW, etc.

I expect some of GM's newer EVs to be added to this list. Not sure why they are missing now?

But wow, the new stricter requirements really put Tesla in an awesome position. Looks like Tesla is going to be production-constrained on Model Y this year. Prices will need to go up.
 
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Serious production of the Tesla semi will catch everybody out. Especially wall street. A few very big companies will place huge orders for them.
They haven't started building the high-volume production factory, and they need the 4680's they can make for the CT (although if the eight Austin production lines are on-line by the end of the year, they might finally be cranking them out). But hopefully this will be a good prediction for 2025.
 
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If Teslabot replaces human factory work at a big scale, it will put a LOT of people out of work, not only at Tesla, but everywhere.

I did not mention the bots in my prediction because I believe Tesla has already implemented (guessing to offload Cybertruck Panels as one example, reasons provided earlier).

It's been plenty of time since this actually Factory Robot Demo in Sept 2022. For over a year now, to NOT have Optimus producing product would be even more amazing. My question is only how many so far? Think about it.


The reason to hide any usage is obvious so we don't need to rehash (UAW and Media).

History has shown that the whole “putting people out of work” thing is seriously overblown.

Don't underestimate the impact here, this time is different because the end state is that ALL labor is replaced (IMHO). The trainers will be around for a while, but then that's it. 🤷‍♂️
 
History has shown that the whole “putting people out of work” thing is seriously overblown.
I listened to a podcast on this topic not too long ago. It was about the pending AI revolution. but I think its relevant here as well.

It referenced a very sudden shift in telecommunications that automated switchboards. Hundreds of thousands, or even millions of switchboard operators were suddenly unemployed, no doubt causing extreme hardships on many in the short term.

But in the long term, they were all ultimately reemployed, hopefully at jobs less mind numbing. The point was, history tells us that even paradigm shifts ultimately result in better, more fulfilling jobs.
 
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Don't underestimate the impact here, this time is different because the end state is that ALL labor is replaced (IMHO). The trainers will be around for a while, but then that's it. 🤷‍♂️

This would be my concern as well, but I think we are an extremely long way off from there. Tesla has stated that the first jobs the Teslabots will take will be the dangerous and dirty jobs that no one wants. After filling these jobs, Tesla could maybe make the move to focus exclusively on the consumer market; I'm pretty sure they'd have all the demand they'd need for quite a while even if they focused only on the consumer market.
 
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Sure, but that count needs to be lower than the number of human robots in service replace or it's not a business savvy use of automation (unless robots are used to reduce risk of injury).

Just saying that the workforce is a dynamic system that adapts to the conditions. It would be challenging to count, tit for tat, how the landscape will change. It always has and always will adapt.

I only wanted to illustrate how the meat sacks are not yet obsolete to an ever-changing system, and, how we will be gravitating toward a world where basic needs could eventually be met at a very low cost to society, if any at all.

A near zero cost of energy would support the concept of a Roddenbery/Star Trek civilization where each person can choose to exist at a comfortable, basic level, or do whatever creative thing they want to further their enjoyment of life. (education, art, science, exploration, etc.)

For my whole life I never could buy into the idea of such a thing, and always thought that the Star Trek model was defective because of the money aspect. My mind was changed when I read and listened to Tony Seba and came to realize it would be the cost of energy that will usher in this future. His ideas show this has a clear probability of unfolding due to how a convergence of disruptive technologies demonstrate how such a way of life is not only possible, it is very likely inevitable.

Money and inflation concerns are a by-product of managing (manipulating) the cost of energy necessary to exist and grow. When that cost is very quickly (over a few decades) reduced to near zero, as the only remaining energy cost being the maintenance of solar panels, wind generators, and battery installations, money will play a much less crucial role in social control.

In the current world our success is judged based on what monetary achievements we make. Which is mostly applied to pay for the use of energy. Once the costs of goods and services are run through the sieve to separate out the energy costs, very little remains to be paid for.

In a hyper-low energy cost world, success will be determined by how much a person creates and contributes. Eliminating the need to scrabble for basics like food and shelter could reshape people's priorities and provide opportunities like never before.

Tesla and the other Musk companies are at the forefront of making this vision for the future a reality. More so than any other company today.

HODL
 
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This would be my concern as well, but I think we are an extremely long way off from there. Tesla has stated that the first jobs the Teslabots will take will be the dangerous and dirty jobs that no one wants. After filling these jobs, Tesla could maybe make the move to focus exclusively on the consumer market; I'm pretty sure they'd have all the demand they'd need for quite a while even if they focused only on the consumer market.
Agree. Time frame is everything. In the right context, both views are correct.

- Short-Term, Jobs increase. Likely a cross-functional team per Operation for Optimus Training and improvements. When applied specific to a single task, this is < 1 yr and shrinks over time with better training methods.

- Longer-term, all those Short-term Jobs needed to maintain and produce Optimus are also replaced. Cost reduction occurs, and it's game over, scope is infinite.

Eventually, Disney will be selling "Human" experiences, lol. They will be trained by the robots!
 
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Lots of assumptions on the charging curve of the cybertruck out there. All, really bad. It would be nice to see a proper test out there. Properly pre-conditioned etc.
Looks like Kyle from OutOfSpec will get his hands on one soon

The strongest info we have that it will improve is Lars saying to will do 15-85% in sub 20 minutes on a V4 Superchargers, don’t think he would give such precise information if it wasn’t the case

There is so much possibilities to why it’s like that that it’s pointless to speculate
 
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Looks like Kyle from OutOfSpec will get his hands on one soon

The strongest info we have that it will improve is Lars saying to will do 15-85% in sub 20 minutes on a V4 Superchargers, don’t think he would give such precise information if it wasn’t the case

There is so much possibilities to why it’s like that that it’s pointless to speculate

But I think that’s a good point. It will be different on a 400 volt compared to an 800 volt system.