Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

Not so far-fetched after all. Look at this for misinformation!

View attachment 1004809

I was unaware the Cybertruck ever had a tax credit to lose in the first place.
Jeez, Reuter-Rooter is digging deep into the septic system to come up with this stuff.

 

[GhostSkater]

But I think that’s a good point. It will be different on a 400 volt compared to an 800 volt system.

For those charging times, the average charging power on that SoC windows has to be higher than 250 kW

Even on V3 it should maintain 250 kW way longer, even Model S/X keeps it there until 33% SoC, extrapolating that for the 123 kWh Cybertruck pack, it should maintain it up to 38%, or much higher with Lars charging times

 

[2daMoon]

For those charging times, the average charging power on that SoC windows has to be higher than 250 kW

Even on V3 it should maintain 250 kW way longer, even Model S/X keeps it there until 33% SoC, extrapolating that for the 123 kWh Cybertruck pack, it should maintain it up to 38%, or much higher with Lars charging times

Watching how other new models have improved charging some period of time after being released, it seems reasonable that they dial back the parameters with new vehicles and study the key indicators and improve the charging in software updates.

Give it six months or so and see if these reports get better as Tesla feels more confident about managing risks for potential problems as their systems prove themselves in the wild.

 

[keydiver]

Looking ahead, I'll make my prediction for Tesla 2024 Production as follows: 2.53M
For 2024 I predict Tesla will be at 50% CAGR for auto production vs 2020 prod. of 0.5M cars, just as Tesla guided 3 years ago during their 2020Q4 Conf. Call.

Exactly! The detail that the FUD media and analysts seem to keep missing is that (IIRC) Tesla predicted that they would AVERAGE 50% growth YoY, not grow 50% each and every year. That would put them at 2,529,463 cars for 2024. They have beat 50% AVERAGE YoY each year so far.

 

[2daMoon]

Exactly! The detail that the FUD media and analysts seem to keep missing is that (IIRC) Tesla predicted that they would AVERAGE 50% growth YoY, not grow 50% each and every year. That would put them at 2,529,463 cars for 2024. They have beat 50% ANNUAL Combined Annual Growth Rate YoY each year so far.

FTFY

 

[mongo]

I was unaware the Cybertruck ever had a tax credit to lose in the first place.
Jeez, Reuter-Rooter is digging deep into the septic system to come up with this stuff.

It is listed in the 2023 cars and will be in the 2024 list once Tesla tells IRS/ Treasury to put it back in (IRS just reports what manufacturers tell it).

 

[Patrick66]

That would put them at 2,529,463 cars for 2024.

That would be a stretch IMO. Assuming they get 10% organic growth at Fremont and Shanghai, they need an additional 700k units between Berlin and Austin, or roughly 100% growth at each factory. If Austin is currently running 5x12h single shift then there is some room for adding a shift, but IIRC Berlin is already approaching capacity with 5 day operation.

 

[philw1776]

No. Never have more bots in your possession than people in the household. Have we learnt nothing!? One will suffice.

Before Optimus' general public release, I strongly suggest a means to prevent the bot from learning by observing cat behavior.

 

[aronth5]

Before Optimus' general public release, I strongly suggest a means to prevent the bot from learning by observing cat behavior.

Actually I was thinking the opposite for @Krugerrand's personal Optimus. Learning only by observing cat behavior

 

[ChiefRollo]

Re: Tesla’s automotive business, my interest for what it’s worth is to see Tesla’s unit volume / $ share-of-wallet consistently grows faster than the growth of the BEV pie. The CAGR could be that of 3, 5 or 10 years. As Tesla’s interest in this (automotive) space seems to be beyond that of just end-users…to also include B2B serving charging, battery, FSD hardware and / or software, high-end chips, material needs of other manufacturers, using this CAGR metric alone comes across as inadequate.

 

[hooty]

BYD just announced sales of 526,409 BEVs for Q4.
I’m betting their 2024 BEV sales target is over 2.5M, as BEV sales are growing month on month as a percentage of all auto sales, while PHEV percentage of total is falling.
BYD stopped making ICEVs nearly two years ago.

BYD Group also includes luxury brands Fang Cheng Bao, Yangwang & Denza, selling in price points above Tesla.

BYD’s auto gross margin in Q3 was estimated to be over 25%

Also worth adding that BYD sold over 50K Seagulls in December - it was only released in April. BYD has relatively short months-long periods between reveal & sales, not years-long.
Seagull will easily become the world's most popular selling car - it is around a quarter the price of the Model Y & China's EV market is nearly 5 times that of the USA.
BYD's PHEV pickup truck is released early this year & BEV pickup truck next year.

 

[ChiefRollo]

If one is good with owning and using Huawei products, owing and using Chinese-made cars would be a non-issue.

As I have made an effort for the majority of my adulthood to steer clear of Chinese products, can’t imagine ever looking at Chinese EVs. Perhaps I belong to a tiny segment of the market…but I can say that this sentiment is strong.

 

[EVCollies]

I’m going to have a full time job following my bot around making sure it does chores correctly.

But that is my SO's job, following me around making sure I do my chores correctly!

 

[wipster]

On a more serious note and forward looking (I haven’t yet seen these implications being discussed yet).
Tesla bot is coming, no doubt.
But the enormous positive impact it will have on Tesla and TSLA is not the only thing heading towards us.

If Teslabot replaces human factory work at a big scale, it will put a LOT of people out of work, not only at Tesla, but everywhere.
That is going to have serious social consequences and likely negative bias towards Tesla (people always searching where to put the blame).
I think it is important that Tesla will not only look at the technical side, but also at the best way on how this might be prevented.
For people involved this could be a generous arrangement when replaced, depending on the amount of years working at the company.
But that is just a quick thought, there may be many more good and creative solutions.
However, this putting an enormous amount of people out of work will need serious attention.

Bear in mind, Tesla is not the only maker of humanoid-like robots...

 

[TSLA Pilot]

That would be a stretch IMO. Assuming they get 10% organic growth at Fremont and Shanghai, they need an additional 700k units between Berlin and Austin, or roughly 100% growth at each factory. If Austin is currently running 5x12h single shift then there is some room for adding a shift, but IIRC Berlin is already approaching capacity with 5 day operation.

FYI: According the video just posted here with the interview with an Austin Gigafactory new-hire, they're running two 12-hour shifts for five days in a row at Austin, sometimes more than five days in a row . . . . I don't quite see how an extra $2/hour makes up for being awake on the wrong side of the clock, but that's just me.

That said, they is a LOT of room for growth at Austin as the building is only partially occupied. As they add battery production lines there is more volume to come, especially with Model 2/R, perhaps in late-2024? (To be clear: just my speculation.)

 

[wipster]

In 2024, Optimus will learn "pull my finger".

I think this prediction wins!

 

[AudubonB]

Happy New Year Part 10 (this goes to 11):

Keeping all you schnozzleberries posting high-quality, worthwhile entries is not the sole means by which I assist Tesla and all you longterm TSLA holders. As follows:

 

[cliff harris]

The BYD seagull is definitely cheap, but comparing its safety ratings on the euroncap site is interesting. Its not catastrophic by any means, but its definitely noticeably worse than the model Y. It also charges at 40kw... which kinda sucks.
I do hope the model 2 is announced in 2024. It would be worrying to go another year and let vehicles like the MG4 and Seagull get too established as entry level EVs.
Knowing Tesla, they are taking their time but will then come out with something game-changing.

 

[AudubonB]

Happy New Year Part 11:

Our fleet as of 123123, and Our gift to You

(No: I do NOT know what "XYSXRS" stands for, but am all ears as to your ideas. And it's a good thing the CT is "colorless", as we've reached the end of acceptable hues within Tesla's limited palette )

 

[wtlloyd]

P&D report expected tomorrow, would that be pre-open or post-close?