Tracking battery availability is admittedly getting very difficult these days with the supply chain widening its sources. But cell capacity for an additional 700k vehicles doesn't sound impossible. Some examples:
[*]CATL shanghai plant coming online with [80]GWh capacity. I think most of this is going to focused on stationary storage but 10% of that capacity could get enough cells for 100k+vehicles[/LIST]
A quick search on this isn't finding much about such a plant coming online anytime soon? I see stories from 2021 and very early 2022- some saying it turned out it was just an assembly plant, not making new cells-- is this a different one, if so do you have a recent link about it being nearly ready?
Even if it is-- where do they go?
They're useless for Austin since they don't use LFP there- and doubly useless in the US for IRA purposes even if Fremont had capacity and demand for them in cars.... Berlin was already under existing production (they're running 2 shifts, each of which can make 125k vehicles, but they're only averaging 100k per shift- meaning they don't have 50k more buyers even with cells. They could be used in China if sufficient demand existed AND if they're actually
[*]BYD continuing to expand cell capacity at a breakneck pace. Their introduction of Sodium cells into vehicles may free up some LFP capacity for sale to Tesla.
Again this isn't any help anywhere but Shanghai as above- and it's unclear how much more capacity Shanghai has available to build more cars- certainly not 700k, maybe not even 100k.
But do you have any specific #s or timelines on this one either? They'll have X gwh, when? And also ones for sale to others rather than expanding their own production that'd climbing very rapidly too.
[*]Panasonic 4680 production due to start
Q2/Q3 2024
I'd be kinda shocked if Panasonic ramped faster than Tesla- meaning you won't have a meaningful # of 4680s from them in 2024.... Useful for 2025 though.
[*]Joe Tegtmyer said 4 Austin lines are ramping now with another 4 coming online by the end of the year.
Already addressed. Those are
all going to the relatively small # of cybertrucks through at least ~August 2024... meaning, again, they won't allow meaningful volumes of other vehicles to be added to Austin until quite late in the year.
It's another
great sign for 2025, but doesn't get you 700k new vehicles (and the customers for them in the right places) in 2024.
Long story short - 700k additional vehicles at 70KWh average pack size
CT is almost double that, and where all those 4680s are going for the next ~8 months (see the discussion we just had with The Accounting on that)-- and longer than 8 months if the ramp isn't
exactly perfect, running 24/7/365
Every LR and P version of everything Tesla sells is more than that too.
Only LFP RWDs are less (and not by much) so unsure how you get to that average... (or where you think they'd be built)
I wish we had a reliable YouTuber/Twitterer that worked on global battery supply chain / factory capacity reporting the same as we have for vehicle volumes. Jordan and CleanerWatt both do some of this but none that I can find that look at a total market perspective. This leaves us to cobble together sources from multiple articles.
Agreed, but battery supply is only 1 piece here- you need not just the cells, but the right type, in the right place, and with the right factory capacity to make cars out of them-- then you also need buyers of that specific type of car in those specific places. Getting ALL of that together for 700k additional vehicles in 2024 doesn't seem to remotely fit any known info.
2025, especially if they get the next-gen vehicle in at least trial production by end of year, should be pretty impressive on growth (and 2026 explosive if there's a second factory making next gen by then)-- but 2024 all signs point to quite modest growth by Tesla standards for all the above reasons.
Instead I'd be looking to Tesla energy to be the pleasant surprise story for 2024.
P.S. Battery cell Line1 at Austin likely supports production of about 166K CTs per year (depending on the cell yield of the battery line, using 1344 cells per car). So 2 Lines together support ~333K CTs, which is near the max capacity of the 1st Cybertruck GA line, now installed and ramping. Another 2 4680 lines by mid-year could support ~500K Models Y, each with a 82 KWh pack (896 cells).
Again- The Limiting Factory video referenced earlier, and using quite optimistic projections, doesn't have them reaching enough for JUST full CT production until at least August/Sept of 2024....meaning spare cells only become available for Q4, and that's if everything goes perfectly the whole way. Joes repost here is saying the same- not until late 2024 for any 4680s not going to CT to be available.
But how many Models 2 could be built using those 4680 cells?
0, since Elon already told us there's no such car called Model 2. Not sure why you keep not believing him?
Also 0 for the next-gen car because battery day said those would be LFP. There are no LFP 4680s. So did Tesla change their mind on chemistry to use for next gen? Where/when was that announced?
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