Given that they had to scrub "flufferbot" on the Tesla assembly line after lots of effort trying, given the difficulty of getting robotics to deal with floppy materials, that is significant...
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Holy shirt, that is impressive!
I was just about to say this. No doubt, Tesla's disastrous foray with flufferbot has informed their design decisions with Optimus. Since purpose built machines will always outperform a general purpose robot in high volume manufacturing (look at any video of how nails are made), Optimus had better be able to do something that no normal purpose built machine can do. And folding laundry is a great example.
My spouse took one look and said "why haven't we ordered one already?
He does it better than do we!
...and almost as quickly."
OT OT OT weekend holiday
As a _single_ data point.
during a 30 day, 2nd long trip in Tesla Y Florida -> Buffalo -> etc. about 3,500+ miles.
I tried to stop at a supercharger in West, Virginia, USA. IGNORING the big -> X <- in the middle of the icon (which meant disabled)(the WaWa or Sheetz station had been demolished to be rebuilt) so I limped along _slowly_ to next supercharger Princeton WVa without having to resort to Plugshare maps on my phone or the Tesla screen
It was _MY_ fault,
the routing software sent me there BUT ALSO told me it was inoperative since I insisted I wanted to go there
BUT
I went anyway not understanding inoperative, meant inoperative, no electrons
lotta more stops
| Erwin, NY |
| Buffalo, NY (wedding bells! |
| Cheektowaga, NY |
| Erie, PA - Perry Highway |
| Washington, PA |
| Fairmont, WV |
| Princeton, WV (oops. thankfully enough to get here) |
| Kernersville, NC (topped off as was in meeting so told it 100% sheer dumb luck... |
| Kernersville, NC |
| Old Fort, NC |
| Piedmont, SC |
| Fair Play, SC |
| Fort Valley, GA |
| Valdosta, GA |
| Ocala, FL - West Silver Springs Boulevard (started, first SC stop) |
Do you do it blindfolded? I'm glad to see progress, but it's clearly not remotely close to human dexterity just yet.
GhostSkater
Member
It is, you have no fixed degrees of freedom to model the object you are trying to interact, meaning that hard coding it is hard if not impossible (for a robot with hands, actuators, there is folding clothes "robots" that simply bring a shirt that someone put on it from flat to folded)
Meaning that NN and end to end is one of the few if not the only way to make it happen, the shirt being black only makes it more impressive
My jaw dropped
Also, look at that pile of 4680s to the left, wonder what they are doing with them, letting Optimus play with it's own parts?
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Though, to be fair, it is closer to human dexterity than any other humanoid robot that I've ever seen fold a shirt.
...and better than some humans I've seen
I don't understand why Optimus is wearing goggles and is tied to the ceiling while he boringly watches a human folding a t-shirt?
Without question. However, if you know a few human laundry workers you might be a bit more impressed.
Optimus is not up to the really good shirt-folders. The pertinent question is really how versatile he is. He need not match the best humans, just constantly do as well as typical humans. That is quite enough to have Optimus replace humans doing boring, dangerous and highly repetitive tasks.
After all, no breaks, no shift limits, no five day weeks. Even sick leaves will be much reduced and holidays can be brief for maintenance. The evaluation is not excellence in complex tasks but competence in those mundane ones.
Certainly better than I do it, but that's a tactic to stop my wife asking me to fold the washing...Though, to be fair, it is closer to human dexterity than any other humanoid robot that I've ever seen fold a shirt.
...and better than some humans I've seen
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
The dude behind just has his hands in his pockets, oh oh, Neuralink!!! Now that would be something...
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
There are those Q1 comments, but I was thinking more about direct comments from the Q3 earnings call, for example.Do you mean Elon's Q1 comment that he would let margins go to zero before cutting back on production plans? This was in the time when Robotaxi was first in his priorities, so those would be deferred, not 'lost' revenues. Then in June, they delayed Giga Mexico construction, so plans change... (old military addage: no plan survices contact with the enemy).
I think you overestimate the amount of planning, and underestimate the amount of responding to circumstances. And I offically revise my statement from last Spring: Elon has now successfully predicted56 of the last 3 recessions...
Musk intro to Q3 earnings call said:
The context is that the company had just busted through capital expenditure guidance (despite some spending delays like you mention). And the company had just brought online its 10k H100 training cluster. I interpret those comments as his justification of why they spent so much and FCF was so low.
Musk intro to Q3 earnings call said:
I interpret that to mean that the company is targeting FCF break-even (or just above it).
CFO Intro said:
In other words, they are taking operating cash flow from the auto business and investing it in ramping Cybertruck and in AI. He is saying that they are not managing to maximize FCF. This is keeping in mind that in the year ago Q3, they achieved FCF of $3.3 billion.
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there are some hands that come in and out of view on the bottom right of the screen. perhaps that is controlling it? Or maybe he just means that the code is hard wired for that particular situation
GhostSkater
Member
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
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