Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

Not an Ad

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749508348935069908

 

[unk45]

I don't have a problem being mistaken if you want to work off of real numbers, here is another fairly reliable source...

“The average electric vehicle has about 2,000 chips, roughly double the average number of chips in a non-electric car,” Raimondo, Commerce Secretary of the US

SOURCE: Chip Shortage Threatens Biden's Electric Vehicle Plans, Commerce Secretary Says

This is, of course, in reference to EVs in particular (as was the Indian article). I am not sure about the number of chips in Teslas in particular. If you have other sources I am open to learning.

fairly reliable source? On many economic subjects she is definitely well qualified. I do admire her/ However of technical subject she has no more credibility than does any random person. her speechwriter may or may not have had access to any relevant data.
Polar Semiconductor alleges 1000-3000 in typical car. Others claim EV's always have more.
Realistically definitions do vary depending on what 'semiconductor' and 'chip' are deemed to mean. Further for most OEM's they really do't know because they assemble parts from Their One suppliers and generally do not even know all the parts inside.
Then consider the technological content pot the vehicles from electrical parts to everything that needs and actuator. A typical high end 'loaded' ICE, like a Range Rover, Cadillac Escalade, Lincoln Navigator could very easily have more 'chips' than a Model 3 or Model Y.

The problem with these generalizations is that 'semiconductor' and 'chip' are in heavy use in almost anything today.

Were the statement to have been that BEV generally have more 'chips' in the powertrain than do 'ICE it would be less fraught but still by no means a sure thing.

In my semi-qualified opinion I would say it is safe to assert that typical BEV use high specification 'chips' than do typical ICE. Even that is 100% sure, but not an unreasonable guess.

Really it is amazing that theorectially qualified people toss out opinion as fact without even a thought about probable correlation to things other than the first superficial guess. For anybody who doubts this qualification I'd suggest looking at details of, say, a BMW 7series, then at a Model S. Obvious complexity vs obvious simplicity is prima facie evidence that the latter is more likely to minimize increased parts count, of any type, while the former is gleefully over-the-top in gratuitous complexity.

Anyway a smart EV maker probably does spend more per-semiconductor and/or chip than does the generic ICE. That, because they tend to design their own components and seek high capacity componetry that do the ICE people. Sure, that one is my opinion too.

 

[SOULPEDL]

My 2024 trading pattern so far. Dare it go lower? Of course it can, and just did.
Just don't jump off, and enjoy the ride! Back to 215 in (tick talk, tick talk...)
Not Advice.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

this stock is going down so fast...... its kinda crazy who is selling?

 

[Krugerrand]

For fun, I'll predict the answers to those 6 questions, if asked on the call:

• Question: Given that you moved the start of the next generation compact vehicle production to Austin, has the timeline improved so that we might see next generation platform vehicles in 2025?
  • My predicted answer: this call is really not the place to discuss future products and their timelines. We will have a separate event when the time comes to announce those products.
• Question: When will Tesla start construction on the Giga Nevada expansion and Giga Mexico, and when can we expect each of these to produce their first product such as 4680, Semi, and next generation vehicles?
  • My predicted answer: construction has begun for both -- earthwork and other preparation is ongoing at both sites. As to precise timelines for products from each, that will depend on many variables in both construction, machinery delivery and commissioning, and supplylines.
• Question: Should retail investors be concerned that Elon has stated he is uncomfrotable expanding AI and robotics at Tesla if he doesn't have 25% of voting?
  • My predicted answer:
    • Elon says: It wasn't an ultimatum or threat, and my relationship with the board is good. In context, I was saying that AI and robotics are critical technologies with large potential for both benefits and harms to humanity. I love humanity. There needs to be balance, so that I have enough voting power to guide the projects, but that I can also be over-ruled if enough shareholders disagree or think I am making a mistake. It would be a mistake to let institutional investors with only short-term profits in mind, and not the long term welfare of humanity, gather a controlling stake and push things in the wrong direction.
    • Somebody else from the Tesla board or leadership team: Yeah, Elon's viewpoint here shouldn't be a concern. Media spin without context didn't present the whole story here, and we are all on the same page of doing what is best for both Tesla and humanity.
• Question: How many cybertruck orders are in the queue and when do you anticipate you will be able to fill existing orders?
  • Side note: this question states "orders" not reservations...which is a little awkward since they are really only offering orders for the Foundation series currently, if I remember correctly... I do suspect that the answer will side-step that a bit.
  • My predicted answer: We have well over a million pre-orders for the Cybertruck, we aren't doing any traditional advertising, and we have lines at our showrooms just to view Cybertruck. We are currently only allowing confirmed orders for the very special, limited Foundation series. Even once we ramp, it would take years to serve all of the pre-orders. At this point in time, we are not concerned about the number of orders, but in ramping production as quickly as we can to deliver this truly special product.
• Question: Can we get Tesla Energy volumes reported in the P&D?
  • My predicted answer: I think the time is right for that. Megapack volumes are increasing rapidly, with quasi-infinite demand, well beyond our current production. Yeah, I think we can look into reporting that on P&D.
• Question: What has been the barrier to ramping 4680 cells to the multi-million cells per week rate and when do you expect to get there?
  • Side note: I like this question, and I don't have an obvious answer.
  • Potential predicted answer: With any new technology, prototypes are easy and production is hard. There are many pieces that need to line up, and many things that only become apparent as you try to ramp up production. With 4680, not only are we developing our own cell production technology, but we are also taking steps to optimize and improve with each new generation of cells. Right now, we think we've got the current generation figured out, but we still have to install the production capacity for it. We have one line running now, with four more production lines expected in the coming months, and another four after that. But raw materials and other supply lines will need to ramp up in parallel. We will get there as quick as we can.

Wonderful job and just goes to show, knowing what question to ask is far more difficult than people think.

 

[Kutu]

I think its the Market Makers selling between each other!

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Re de-throning of the model Y. It could happen, at least in North America, but not until most if not all of the superchargers are open to the general public. After that there really isn’t any special sauce limiting people to a model Y. I suspect Hyundai could be an early competitor for both the model 3 and model Y once they have access to the supercharger network. Teslas market domination will drop like a stone once they get the supercharger network available to everyone via the NACS plug or adapter. And that tap can never be turned off again.

Jmho.

 

[Artful Dodger]

For fun, I'll predict the answers to those 6 questions, if asked on the call:

I hope Elon subscribes to your feed....

 

[Zero CO2]

this stock is going down so fast...... its kinda crazy who is selling?

constant stream of FUD is working on weak hands ....

 

[Krugerrand]

Not an Ad

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749508348935069908

But it gets stuck in snow, the mud flaps break off when you try and off road it, it can pull 11,000 pounds but only 100’ downhill with a tailwind.

I tell you, it’s a piece of crap! And a scam.

I finalized my ridiculously overpriced order last week. Nothing I love more than a ginormous, eye blinding paperweight. I’m going to park it at the top of my mountain so its reflection can be a beacon for the astronauts on the ISS.

 

[unk45]

Journalists are available, articulate, know a bit about the subject, and know how to help each other out.

Out of curiosity have you ever help conversation with journalists?
In my questionable opinion: "available": almost always. "know a bit about the subject" rarely, very rarely. "articulate": uncommon, but occasionally ; 'helping each other out' True, sometimes. False, mostly.
In several positions I have held I have had many journalist encounters. I never have met one who had all three; the really articulate and knowledgable ones were also the least kiely to have much time, because they were in very high demand.
On that 'helping each other out" if you'd ever met a network anchor you'd probably retract any notion of making that one a generalization. I have some examples but that would go off topic.

This subject, though, is directly on-topic when considering press coverage of TSLA. The combined ignorance and arrogance goes some way to explaining why fair coverage is so hard to come by. The journalist lives on schedules and goes to press with anything they have that generates better metrics.

 

[ripper88]

The Tesla stock price has been tied to a large boat anchor since December 23rd. Any small downward price movements on the 5 minute Nasdaq chart are amplified to bring the Tesla stock price down. The Nasdaq recovers and Tesla does not. Stairs up elevator down. Rinse and repeat multiple times a day. I'm hoping there's some surprising good news on Wednesday because FSD v12 hasn't helped the stock price so far.

 

[Krugerrand]

Really it is amazing that theorectially qualified people toss out opinion as fact without even a thought about probable correlation to things other than the first superficial guess.

I’m amazed you find that amazing. I’d have thought you had enough worldly experience to know theoretically qualified (and theoretically unqualified) people do that literally all the time. It’s how people navigate the world. Throw an opinion at a wall and see if it sticks.

 

[phoggy123]

Prediction time.

1. I think Tesla is willing to continuously drop prices to meet demand to keep the factories moving. I believe Elon is willing to let margins slide as long as it takes to get FSD marketable to the masses.
2. Energy storage will help the quarter and FY24 as they get more of these larger projects installed and the Shanghai Megapack factory comes online.
3. FSD still won't be "there" in 2024 yet. However it will make strides in miles driven as more people get comfortable
4. Elon will sell shares in the 2nd half of the year to fund twitter and build personal cash.
5. CT will ship ~10-20K units in 2024 mostly limited by 4680.
6. We will see the first test mules of the "cheap" model 2 or whatever it will be called by December. They will not have any sort of reveal till it's ready to buy.
7. If China sees a strong contraction....we are going to be in trouble for FY24.
8. Tesla approves buybacks with any cash above 25Bn in the bank (25Bn is arbitrary) but they know WS will hammer them if what I say above turns out correct.

I am personally holding much more cash than I have ever in my life as I believe we will touch 150 or lower this year. I am worried there is a huge disconnect in perception of the upfront cost of Tesla's due to lack of marketing and education. In my neck of the woods people are starting to think EV's were a fad, but they see price as a determining factor. If Tesla blasted their current leasing deal(s) to North America I think they wouldn't have to make any further price cuts and maybe build a backlog. But as most people still think Teslas are 50K+ they don't bother. They also need to hammer cold weather and charging.

I would rather Tesla pay for a home charger up to $1500 than drop the price anymore. Model 3+Y are now "affordable" cars for the masses.

 

[Krugerrand]

Re de-throning of the model Y. It could happen, at least in North America, but not until most if not all of the superchargers are open to the general public. After that there really isn’t any special sauce limiting people to a model Y. I suspect Hyundai could be an early competitor for both the model 3 and model Y once they have access to the supercharger network. Teslas market domination will drop like a stone once they get the supercharger network available to everyone via the NACS plug or adapter. And that tap can never be turned off again.

Jmho.

Are you a fiction writer by chance?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

This $TSLA drop (even though way less violent) then when it went to the low $100's seems way worse i think because the S&P and Nasdaq are ripping higher while we go down daily. Hopefully, this Wednesday brings some clarity, or maybe we go way lower. Short term thinkers get REKT'd . HODL is the way, i hope

 

[Skipdd]

Re de-throning of the model Y. It could happen, at least in North America, but not until most if not all of the superchargers are open to the general public. After that there really isn’t any special sauce limiting people to a model Y. I suspect Hyundai could be an early competitor for both the model 3 and model Y once they have access to the supercharger network. Teslas market domination will drop like a stone once they get the supercharger network available to everyone via the NACS plug or adapter. And that tap can never be turned off again.

Jmho.

No offense, but “anything” could happen. I see it differently. As more non-Tesla owners have conversations at superchargers, they are likely to experience desire to acquire a Tesla. Why? Because of everything I read about what the differences in capabilities are. Ironically, I was just chatting w one of our neighbors yesterday, who replaced their minivan with a new Model Y this year. Their first EV. They love it. When we moved into the neighborhood 3 years ago, there was one neighbor with a Model 3 and us on our street. Now there are 3 more Teslas - all model Ys. And for each, their first EV. Not statistically significant I know.

 

[insaneoctane]

FWIW that's the same argument we heard for the last couple of major re-writes, that THIS is the One True Solution and previous ones they THOUGHT were just hit local maximums (see for example going from still-frames to video)

Agreed. Factually, this is true. But, what is significantly different, IMO, is due to the re-write (nothing but nets), the trajectory for improvement can be very different. I can't guarantee it will be, but it certainly can be, and I believe it will be. Prior to this releases, with all the C++ code, I believe the possibility of big changes was limited. With v12, the opportunity to show big changes and improvement is greater and likely limited by compute. It seems like they've made significant progress for a rewrite that seems to have started from ~scratch. I'm cautiously optimistic.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

No offense, but “anything” could happen. I see it differently. As more non-Tesla owners have conversations at superchargers, they are likely to experience desire to acquire a Tesla. Why? Because of everything I read about what the differences in capabilities are. Ironically, I was just chatting w one of our neighbors yesterday, who replaced their minivan with a new Model Y this year. Their first EV. They love it. When we moved into the neighborhood 3 years ago, there was one neighbor with a Model 3 and us on our street. Now there are 3 more Teslas - all model Ys. And for each, their first EV. Not statistically significant I know.

Yah I can see that. But right now a lot of people are aware of the supercharge advantage including many existing EV owners. There are lots of nice EV’s on the market but would be a bad choice for those who road trip. That goes away once all EV’s can benefit from the Tesla supercharge advantage.

We are leaning away from a Cybertruck now and more to a model X, but there are more and more EV’s in that category, and the model Y as well.

Jmho. Time will tell.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yah I can see that. But right now a lot of people are aware of the supercharge advantage including many existing EV owners. There are lots of nice EV’s on the market but would be a bad choice for those who road trip. That goes away once all EV’s can benefit from the Tesla supercharge advantage.

We are leaning away from a Cybertruck now and more to a model X, but there are more and more EV’s in that category, and the model Y as well.

Jmho. Time will tell.

I think your second paragraph explains your first paragraph, and that that first paragraph is actually about you, not about ‘people’.

When I hear people talk; friends, strangers, doesn’t matter, I hear a wide range of thoughts and opinions. I don’t hear just things specific to my reality.