Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

following a pattern...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750545815687291276

Haha, maybe 5th time a charm am I right?

I do remember most of those ER we all kissed -10%.

 

[Tony73]

Gen3 as a catalyst is at least three years. It’s not worth all the attention it is getting right now.
There are still plenty of bright spots in the Tesla story for 2024/25.

The discipline Tesla has been forced to apply to production costs is a good thing. It looks like gross margins have bottomed out at 17%. Considering the magnitude of the price cuts, that is an incredible result. As interest rates come down, Tesla can increase prices marginally and still have a clear path back to 25% gross margins.

 

[GOVA]

Dan Ives doesn't know s*it. Remember how he was uber-bullish on GM's ultium after they did their version of battery day with a school project and a large powerpoint? How he sung praises to Marry "who led"? That's all you have to know. He's an equivalent of Gordo, with a slightly different slant. There is more due diligence in this thread, than will ever fit in his neural net.

Yes. He is just another tool that some people seem to listen to. Meh.

Another big nothingburger from all that don't have a clue. Tesla is more than fine. What's best is that Elon and Co don't spill anything anymore. They've learned the lesson.

 

[unk45]

Texas is "US adjacent" and most of Texas was part of Mexico.

FIFY

 

[Tony73]

The last few quarters the conference calls have been more structured, less chaotic. I think it is because they now answer the top questions from Say, and only have time left for a couple of analyst questions. They even anticipate some of the Say questions by putting the answers in their earnings PDF and/or prepared comments. Not a lot of opportunity left for analysts to profile themselves or for Elon to drop a bombshell.
Elon even had a good quality microphone. I like it!

Zach Kirkhorn was the most effective communicator in the leadership team. The last two calls would have gone a lot better if he was still on-board.

 

[wipster]

Well damn...

 

[Krugerrand]

Ives is supporting some client's trades.

Absolutely. So he’s lying about Tesla for financial gain for himself and someone who’s paying him. So a person who would lie for monetary gain is ‘fill in the blank’. And people who believe him when he says things are ‘fill in the blank’.

 

[The Accountant]

Well damn...

I'm gathering you were knocked out cold by the earnings call yesterday and only waking up now.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Calls trying to hold the line at 190 but 180 puts growing too.
I don't understand why Max Pain is still showing 215, same as yesterday. The needle is stuck, needs lithium grease (lol, that grease actually does include lithium to thicken and improve high-temp properties - yup a metal is in that grease, and same lithium as in the batteries).

The max pain site is pretty iffy - hopefully not as iffy as FSD, V11 anyway.

 

[Krugerrand]

Zach Kirkhorn was the most effective communicator in the leadership team. The last two calls would have gone a lot better if he was still on-board.

In what way? I personally had no issue understanding the new CFO and the fact Tesla wasn’t going to give WS anything. Because that’s really the difference at this point. Zach was allowed to spoon feed WS, the new CFO is allowed to give WS nothing but the last quarter’s bottom line. Don’t blame him for that. A conscious decision was made to zip it and let WS flounder.

 

[The Accountant]

Yes. He is just another tool that some people seem to listen to. Meh.

Another big nothingburger from all that don't have a clue. Tesla is more than fine. What's best is that Elon and Co don't spill anything anymore. They've learned the lesson.

I like Dan Ives - seems like a nice guy . . . but I find he and Gene Munster stay at the 30,000 foot level and when they are challenged during interviews they don't have the details to rebut (details that many on this forum know as basic facts). I guess we spend many more hours analyzing and discussing Tesla than they do.

 

[GhostSkater]

My concern is the revolutionary process to make the next car will be harder than anticipated and as a result even more delays will take place.
Imagine the situation we would be in now if instead of the cybertruck a more conventional truck had been designed. We could be selling in the hundreds of thousands a year by now.

I hope the same process does not repeat itself with the next gen vehicle.

If Cybertruck was a conventional pickup truck it would likely require more batteries or have considerably shorter range on top of being more expensive to make on the other components

There isn’t enough batteries around, and taking a path you know will consume more of them for the same outcome is dumb and shooting yourself on the foot (Hi Mary) because you can’t scale production to profitability

 

[ABCTG]

Does the demographic that purchases a <$30K Tesla have a convenient way to charge? I've been wondering about this as I hear younger folks in the office with M3 that have to stop at the supercharger every few days (in contrast, they were filling up with gas weekly; these are all folks who rent).

I would think this could be a consideration for market penetration... superchargers are great for road-trips, but I wouldn't want to have to use them regularly.

Careful, a lot of people get upset when you mention lack of charging for renters/people who have to park on the street. This has been my experience over the last several years.

What are possible solutions?
Level 2 charging at workplaces will go a long way to solving this.
Tesla gives access to level 2 charging to all their employees.

Level 2 charging at malls, churches, stadiums, downtown areas, and other places where people will spend a few hours will also help. There are now many grants available in the US that will assist in paying for this necessary infrastructure.

In the US it is still a case of "no car, no job" in many areas. So for anyone who is just starting out and renting, with zero access to home or work charging, owning an EV can be a challenge.

 

[CitizenKane]

Personally I like Dan Ives and appreciate his analyses. He's been right a number of times, and I think he gets both the short and long term stock movements. And this is precisely his role as an analyst. With the risk of stating the obvious, institutional investors rely on analysts to determine their short and long term strategies.

 

[ShareLofty]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1749911729960550450

@Troy was off 10% on auto gross margins ex credits. Might be time to switch his work to TroyRivianlike or Troylucidlike

 

[uscbucsfan]

If Cybertruck was a conventional pickup truck it would likely require more batteries or have considerably shorter range on top of being more expensive to make on the other components

There isn’t enough batteries around, and taking a path you know will consume more of them for the same outcome is dumb a shooting yourself on the foot (Hi Mary) because you can’t scale production to profitability

The new CT and SS is the expensive/difficult part. The 4680 batteries aren't great currently.

The CT was rushed, as in it's being delivered with a lot of features missing/disabled/hopefully nerfed.

 

[jerry33]

What are possible solutions?
Level 2 charging at workplaces will go a long way to solving this.

Not when the company charges $0.61 / kWh, which is what the company I used to work for five years ago did (and there was a bunch of paperwork you had to fill out before you could get charging access. I don't think anyone ever used it except in emergencies.) Rates have to be reasonable.

 

[GOVA]

I like Dan Ives - seems like a nice guy . . . but I find he and Gene Munster stay at the 30,000 foot level and when they are challenged during interviews they don't have the details to rebut (details that many on this forum know as basic facts). I guess we spend many more hours analyzing and discussing Tesla than they do.

It is not only about him, rather about the whole another fake drama. Yes, WE know the details but they spin it anyway they make money.

Now, how many of those January earning calls have we been through? Just look at the whole Tesla now vs even 2019. I take Tesla-now anytime.

It will pass.

 

[Krugerrand]

The new CT and SS is the expensive/difficult part. The 4680 batteries aren't great currently.

The CT was rushed, as in it's being delivered with a lot of features missing/disabled/hopefully nerfed.

Short memory much? All Tesla vehicles were shipped with a lot of features missing. My Model 3 didn’t have backseat heaters working for several months. The car didn’t have hill hold, chime on lock, dog mode, cat mode, joe mode, fart mode, romance mode - The
list is endless. I know what you’re going to say next so let me rebut that - it’s not relevant what you think is required at time of sale. The fact remains, every single vehicle Tesla has sold has been feature incomplete from day 1. It’s how they roll. CT shipping incomplete is no different.

 

[mongo]

Calls trying to hold the line at 190 but 180 puts growing too.
I don't understand why Max Pain is still showing 215, same as yesterday. The needle is stuck, needs lithium grease (lol, that grease actually does include lithium to thicken and improve high-temp properties - yup a metal is in that grease, and same lithium as in the batteries).

View attachment 1012125

The max pain site is pretty iffy - hopefully not as iffy as FSD, V11 anyway.

That's the volume chart. Max pain is based on open interest and that is only updated at 7am each day. Volume chart shiws lots of trading around the stock price, possibly to play volatility.

Interesting that the 225 volume is less than the open interest.