Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UkNorthampton]

Exactly !!!

As long as he takes the right decisions that delivers results, I really don't care how much time he spends thinking about Tesla.

Better in some ways for the highly talented Tesla managers and engineers to bumble along doing outstanding work, achieving beyond competitors' comprehension and then Elon gives them the help they need to get past any roadblocks.

That way Tesla is incredibly innovative and effective while building up world class talent in depth and breadth.

 

[Unpilot]

This is why the mission is so important.

Oops, Scientists May Have Miscalculated Our Global Warming Timeline

Clues have emerged that reveal a much hotter history than we thought.

www.popularmechanics.com

I don't care about the SP as long as the mission is focused on.

 

[AudubonB]

Are some of you conflating "time and energy" (my words) with being present ("presenteesim)? Are you referring to the same Mr Musk as I am?

 

[UkNorthampton]

Other posters reassured me about the Semi timeline and I am more pacified, but let me ask you specifically: if you think there are already huge cost savings, why isn't Tesla building more even for it's own fleet? Megachargers are less of a problem if you know where to put them for your convenience (like one in every GF plus a few strategic locations in the middle).
Indeed, my worries stem on the fact that we don't see even hand-build Semis in the hundreds.

One of Tesla's strengths may be a small tight team of mega effective staff.

They can only do so much at one time, but their capital efficiency is in a class of its own.

Fewer, better, cheaper rather than a small expensive army of great, but not greatest engineers

 

[FreqFlyer]

This is why the mission is so important.

Oops, Scientists May Have Miscalculated Our Global Warming Timeline

Clues have emerged that reveal a much hotter history than we thought.

www.popularmechanics.com

I don't care about the SP as long as the mission is focused on.

..................Ummmmmm................................................................no, just no. We do care about the stock price.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Are some of you conflating "time and energy" (my words) with being present ("presenteesim)? Are you referring to the same Mr Musk as I am?

Time seems to be related to presenteeism.

Energy, for Elon Musk is probably most readily available when he sees the importance of the problem.

Hence why he flits between businesses, fixing the most urgent, important, vital aspects or spending time and energy of thinking through whole systems (chargers, robotaxi).

I suspect Elon isn't able to artificially crank up enthusiasm (energy) unless it's the most pressing concern or use of his time overall or within the company/domain.

Sometimes it's SpaceX, sometimes Tesla or another company. I want him in a state of flow, unconstrained by context switching to thinking about how his work style may be perceived.

I'm advocating not killing the golden goose, square pegs in round holes.

I'm sure some mighty words will come in reply. I only offer my opinion as I think I have an understanding of how Elon thinks. I'm sure many of us do. One or more might be right.

 

[mongo]

Other posters reassured me about the Semi timeline and I am more pacified, but let me ask you specifically: if you think there are already huge cost savings, why isn't Tesla building more even for it's own fleet? Megachargers are less of a problem if you know where to put them for your convenience (like one in every GF plus a few strategic locations in the middle).
Indeed, my worries stem on the fact that we don't see even hand-build Semis in the hundreds.

Could be production vs prototype tooling. The extra cost in delaying additions may be offset by the savings of waiting for volume tooled parts which itself could be gated by a factory/ assembly line that can utilize that quantity of parts.
Secondary is cell supply. It's a relative ratio of ~10:1 vehicle to semi ratio and selling cars puts more in Tesla's pocket than saving on transportation costs (in the short term). However non-IRA cells can be used and the semi still gets up to $40k of commercial vehicle credit. This offsets prototype costs as a reason to not build more semis now, potentially supporting the idea that there is a part supply issue.
There could also be a design revision in progress which requires a retooled subassembly they are waiting on.

 

[AudubonB]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1757294305327120522

Q: The material states each PW3 can receive from up to 6 PV lines. To me "lines" suggests separate arrays - does this also mean that each PW3 has six separate or somehow effectively separate inverters?

And if one acquires 4 PW3s (apparently the maximum per unit), then one has the ability to have 4*6= 24 separate arrays? More: the material also states "scalable up to four units." So...conceivably up to 4 units of 4 PW3s = 13.5kWh * 16 = 216kWh - that's ample for me even in the depths of an Arctic Circle winter. Just trying to envision my non-existent next home project...if I'm understanding these data correctly.

 

[unk45]

Simple fix: stop following his politics. If that means unfollowing his account then do it. Anything of Tesla import is posted in this thread. The man can’t even pull a random t-shirt out of his dirty laundry basket without it being dissected to death here. You won’t miss anything important to your long term investment by not following his every tweet.

Hard fix: stop having an opinion. I’ve said it before, try not having an opinion a time or two. It’ll lighten your emotional load and give you a whole different perspective on life and moving through it.

Hardest fix: stop thinking it’s your business to know/interpret what he or anyone else is thinking about all the bloody time, regardless of it being put out to the world.

What a mess humans have put ourselves in. And we just keep doing it over and over and over again. Will we ever stop digging our societal graves?

The cat has really been on a roll lately. One great, pithy comment after another/.

 

[uscbucsfan]

This is why the mission is so important.

Oops, Scientists May Have Miscalculated Our Global Warming Timeline

Clues have emerged that reveal a much hotter history than we thought.

www.popularmechanics.com

I don't care about the SP as long as the mission is focused on.

I would guess that Elon would say that's just scare tactics.

He's really changed his stance and approach on Climate Change saying Global warming is overblown in the short term, but significant in the long term. Or that we shouldn't demonize the oil and gas industry.

Maybe it's a version of his troll, but even on podcasts he starts off with protecting his old opinion saying he still thinks it's important, but then attacks those who say it's an imminent threat. He said something on the JRE pod something like Climate Change will not end the world as we know it.

 

[bpjod]

Other posters reassured me about the Semi timeline and I am more pacified, but let me ask you specifically: if you think there are already huge cost savings, why isn't Tesla building more even for it's own fleet? Megachargers are less of a problem if you know where to put them for your convenience (like one in every GF plus a few strategic locations in the middle).
Indeed, my worries stem on the fact that we don't see even hand-build Semis in the hundreds.

In addition to the excellent reasons you've already received, it seems to me you've already somewhat answered your own question:

The Semi is at the core of Tesla mission. Probably even more important than the Cybertruck, mission-wise (it has a global market, the CT doesn't).

Now, on topic: Tesla delivered the first Semi to Pepsi on the 1st December 2022. It's February 13th 2024, and allegedly not even 100 have been produced.

As you say, the CT is critical to the mission. It's probably Tesla's most ambitious project since the initial Model S (although I'm willing to entertain mass-production of the Model 3 as their most ambitious project to date). Testing Semis on public roads isn't like launching unmanned rockets over the sea where if the thing blows up the only harm is to one's pride and pocketbook, instead it's more like a manned launch to space. These things need to be tested very thouroughly and all the bugs worked out before launching mass production. It's only been 14 months since Pepsi took delivery. That's only once through all four seasons, and I'm not sure how much real winter testing has been done (putting on my Canadian toque here). Doesn't sound like an exorbitant amount of time testing to me, especially for something where the stakes are so high (safety, public/customer perception, etc.). In this case I'm happy to let Tesla err on the side of caution and do more controlled testing to be sure they've got it right rather than Musk's usual modus operandi of failing fast and learning from their mistakes.

I'm sure they feel they have the right amount of CTs out there to test and have put a pause on production to learn from their real world experiences. Once they finalize the design they'll start building the factory to produce them (sounds like they are now). The next step will be the charging infrastructure, that's what I'm waiting to hear news about.

 

[scaesare]

Could be production vs prototype tooling. The extra cost in delaying additions may be offset by the savings of waiting for volume tooled parts which itself could be gated by a factory/ assembly line that can utilize that quantity of parts.
Secondary is cell supply. It's a relative ratio of ~10:1 vehicle to semi ratio and selling cars puts more in Tesla's pocket than saving on transportation costs (in the short term). However non-IRA cells can be used and the semi still gets up to $40k of commercial vehicle credit. This offsets prototype costs as a reason to not build more semis now, potentially supporting the idea that there is a part supply issue.
There could also be a design revision in progress which requires a retooled subassembly they are waiting on.

The feedback cycle may also be longer:

A "civilian" vehicle with an average lifetime of 200K miles, for which you will be producing millions of units, may warrant a pilot run of 100's or 1000's, and you can get significant meaningful initial feedback in a few months.

For a commercial vehicle with an average lifetime of 2 million miles that you'll only be producing 100's of thousands of, it might significantly longer to get the longevity/wear data you are seeking...

(on edit: similar sentiment to what @bpjod said while I was composing my reply)

 

[mongo]

Q: The material states each PW3 can receive from up to 6 PV lines. To me "lines" suggests separate arrays - does this also mean that each PW3 has six separate or somehow effectively separate inverters?

And if one acquires 4 PW3s (apparently the maximum per unit), then one has the ability to have 4*6= 24 separate arrays? More: the material also states "scalable up to four units." So...conceivably up to 4 units of 4 PW3s = 13.5kWh * 16 = 216kWh - that's ample for me even in the depths of an Arctic Circle winter. Just trying to envision my non-existent next home project...if I'm understanding these data correctly.

Powerwall 3 does have 6 MPPT solar inputs.

Take with grain of salt, but my previous understanding was that a PW3 could expand up to 4x *battery* units and the number of full PW3s is not limited to 4. This lines up with the online configurator which will happily sell me a system with 5 Powerwalls.

 

[SOULPEDL]

This is why the mission is so important.

Oops, Scientists May Have Miscalculated Our Global Warming Timeline

Clues have emerged that reveal a much hotter history than we thought.

www.popularmechanics.com

I don't care about the SP as long as the mission is focused on.

I'm as aware of the climate cover-up as much as what we see happening with Tesla - both are full of disinformation. If you'll notice the author of the study actually said “Basically, time’s running out.” And right after they said the data shows we blew past the 1.5C about 4 years ago. A more accurate statement would have been "time ran out."

I've already realized that Arizona will likely become a Winter residence only, maybe 5-10 yrs from now, and not just some snowbird effect, nearly everyone leaves except manufacturing on Solar. If most of the residents do the same, we absolutely will be cutting both power and water demands in the Southwest.

This is good, right?

 

[MP3Mike]

German labour court finds Tesla broke union election rules​

Feb 13, 202411:56 EST

Tesla's works council violated German union election rules, a labour court ruled on Tuesday, in the latest example of the U.S. EV maker clashing with German regulation.

Unions lauded employees two years ago for forming a works council when Tesla was just starting to build its plant near Berlin. They warned the group would be top heavy because only middle and senior management had been hired.

The works council, a group of employees that mediates with management, called a new election this month, asking for candidates to be put forward by Feb. 15, but the labour court ruled on Tuesday this was too soon because German regulation stipulates there should be a two-year gap between election campaigns.

The previous election began on Feb. 28, 2022, meaning Tesla must wait until Feb. 29 to proceed with its plans, the court said, according to media reports from rbb24 and others in the courtroom.

Tesla and its Chief Executive Elon Musk have long criticised German bureaucracy, which Musk once said was at odds with the urgency of fighting climate change.

Musk has also clashed with unions, including in the United States, where he is embroiled in numerous cases around federal labour law.

Works councils are not mandatory in Germany, but they are common particularly in industrial firms and represent a powerful force at rival carmakers including Volkswagen where the head of the works council sits on the supervisory board.

Tesla's workforce has grown to more than 12,000 from around 2,000 at the time of the previous election. Any full-time worker at the plant for at least six months can stand for election, provided their nomination secures 50 backers.

Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on whether it will accept the decision or whether its works council will try to appeal.

https://www.tradingview.com/news/re...court-finds-tesla-broke-union-election-rules/

This article seems to confuse Tesla with the Worker's Council. Tesla didn't break the rules, the Worker's Council did. And it sounds like they were just being too speedy, and need to wait an extra two weeks...

 

[SOULPEDL]

..................Ummmmmm................................................................no, just no. We do care about the stock price.

It's OK. We can do both.

 

[bpjod]

I don't care about the SP as long as the mission is focused on.

..................Ummmmmm................................................................no, just no. We do care about the stock price.

This is an investors' forum. Of course we care about the stock price. However, IF we fail to control climate change then the stock market will become irrelavent and all that will matter is bullets 'n booze and your survival skills. The mission comes first, then the share price so that I still have a civilized planet on which to enjoy my rewards.

 

[MP3Mike]

So...conceivably up to 4 units of 4 PW3s = 13.5kWh * 16 = 216kWh - that's ample for me even in the depths of an Arctic Circle winter. Just trying to envision my non-existent next home project...if I'm understanding these data correctly.

What is the "* 16" for? Each PW3 is 13.5kWh. So, if you have four of them you have a total of 54kWh of energy storage. The inverters in each PW are capable of 11.5kW, so with four of them you could support 46kW of solar panels, which could be spread over 24 separate arrays/MPPT inputs. (69kW if you over-subscribe by 50%.)

edit: OK, I see what you are saying 4 PW3 systems each with four Powerwall 3s. I'm not sure if that is how it works or not. Maybe you can have 4 PW3s, i.e. units, and you can add 40.5kWh of extra storage, via extra batteries, but not inverters, to each PW. But that doesn't match the site where it lets you order up to 6 Powerwalls. (It used to be 9 when it was Powerwall 2s.)

 

[ggr]

Annoyed mod: 31 posts about Ukraine/OT/musk-bashing and followups deleted. There is a reason we have dedicated threads and banned topics. And there is one member who seems to just want to continue conversations even when it's clear they should have stopped already. If you think this might be you, take a nap. --ggr

 

[scaesare]

This is an investors' forum. Of course we care about the stock price. However, IF we fail to control climate change then the stock market will become irrelavent and all that will matter is bullets 'n booze and your survival skills. The mission comes first, then the share price so that I still have a civilized planet on which to enjoy my rewards.

Right. Both matter... the other significant factor for both is time scale.

For TSLA, that may be a decade or two, before it gets interesting. For the climate, it also may be VERY interesting in the next decade or two.