Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

Refers to deleted post

Elon knew the design would be polarizing and said so, up front. I just never really expected how many who don't care for it to find themselves driven to be vocal about it.

Still, folks speaking up at least makes for more free advertising, as any publicity is good publicity. Thanks for doing your part to spread the CT concept to the any who might like it, even if you don't.

FWIW, I feel a similar way about most sedans. Completely impractical vehicles, but some folks won't buy anything else.

 

[AudubonB]

Nice! A bit of trivia for Tom Lehrer buffs is that the song is sung in Spanish as ¿Quién sigue?,
in 1971 by a radical theatrical performance artist known as Nacha Guevara, who fled military
dictatorships into exile more than once from Argentina.

Lyrics here: https://www.geocities.ws/lanachaguevara/estees.html#quien

More than that, she covered multiple Lehrer tunes including "We'll All Together When We Go",
"New Mathematics", "The Elements", and naturally "The Masochism Tango", all in Spanish.
Many are on YouTube.

The reason I know this is that I (very loosely) onceworked in collaboration with Prof. Lehrer himself
in synchronizing a video animation I made to "The Elements". Although several others have
done a music video for this, I slowly added all elements to my visualization over the (>twenty!) years
as each element after 102 was officially named, up to Element 118, never disturbing his audio.
Every blue moon we'd correspond about it; once he mailed me a cassette tape of Nacha Guevara
covers.

My lower-rez (720p?) Tom Lehrer's "The Elements" vid is up at the Internet Archive somewhere.

(I originally wrote to get copyright clearance for a "sync license", but Lehrer pooh-poohed
all that in favor of eventually releasing all his lyrics + performances as public domain -- fortunately
he never sold his music publication rights.) It's nice that Lehrer and Guevara are still around.

P.S. Now, how could I possibly connect this with Tesla investment? Well, how about knowing
more about how and when Tesla will get rid of the "rare earth" elements from the motors? Use of
small magnets are okay, as folks like Apple are using all-recycled neodymium and dysprosium now.

Spectacular! This post must remain up as topical so the non-elemental geeks have the chance to learn more about "rare earth" elements.

PS 'tho I cannot figure a way to make it OnT, the 2d best version of The Elements is that regarding those known in Aristotelian times, to wit, in full:

"There's Earth and Air and Water and Fire"

 

[NicoV]

Taking an Amazon approach here and starting from the end goal to going backwards...I really don't know what the end state to all this AI+GPU conglomeration is headed. Does anybody, on this forum, have an idea of what the intended end state is?

I would like to be informed.

The end game is that, in addition of the CPU/GPU/Flash/RAM silicon we have in every computing device, there will be additional silicon for AI inference (i.e. using the neural networks). That will be TPU's, not GPU's. There will be lots of different TPU's, each one matched to the intended use. E.g. the Tesla Autopilot cpu, or the Apple m1 series 16-core Neural Engine. If you are a software developer (aka neural network consumer), you're probably going to use an abstraction layer that can interact with all these different devices without hardcoding for one of them (so that you don't depend on Nvidia CUDA). I'm currently using ONNX (ONNX | Home). Nvidia is probably not going to be dominant here because:
- SOC builders like Intel, AMD, Apple will include (actually they already have done that to some degree) that functionality into their SOC.
-If it's not built into a SOC, there is still the possibility to use a dedicated TPU. Google sells one cheaply (Products | Coral), and there are others, and probably an order of magnitude more under development.
NVidia sells it's own SOC ARM-based product in this market: Jetson, Xavier NVIDIA Embedded Systems for Next-Gen Autonomous Machines
TPU's give more bang for the buck than GPU's:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760328985630924958

Then there is the training part of AI. This requires massive data centers, massive amounts of data, massive amounts of compute. For the moment Nvidia is dominant here, but they charge so much for their H100 TPUs NVIDIA H100 Tensor Core GPU that their clients will all look for cheaper alternatives. Tesla even built their own system in about 1 or 2 years, called Dojo. It's difficult to imagine that Nvidia will remain without competition here for a long time.

 

[NicoV]

The end game is that, in addition of the CPU/GPU/Flash/RAM silicon we have in every computing device, there will be additional silicon for AI inference (i.e. using the neural networks). That will be TPU's, not GPU's. There will be lots of different TPU's, each one matched to the intended use. E.g. the Tesla Autopilot cpu, or the Apple m1 series 16-core Neural Engine. If you are a software developer (aka neural network consumer), you're probably going to use an abstraction layer that can interact with all these different devices without hardcoding for one of them (so that you don't depend on Nvidia CUDA). I'm currently using ONNX (ONNX | Home). Nvidia is probably not going to be dominant here because:
- SOC builders like Intel, AMD, Apple will include (actually they already have done that to some degree) that functionality into their SOC.
-If it's not built into a SOC, there is still the possibility to use a dedicated TPU. Google sells one cheaply (Products | Coral), and there are others, and probably an order of magnitude more under development.
NVidia sells it's own SOC ARM-based product in this market: Jetson, Xavier NVIDIA Embedded Systems for Next-Gen Autonomous Machines
TPU's give more bang for the buck than GPU's:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760328985630924958

Then there is the training part of AI. This requires massive data centers, massive amounts of data, massive amounts of compute. For the moment Nvidia is dominant here, but they charge so much for their H100 TPUs NVIDIA H100 Tensor Core GPU that their clients will all look for cheaper alternatives. Tesla even built their own system in about 1 or 2 years, called Dojo. It's difficult to imagine that Nvidia will remain without competition here for a long time.

And here's today's example of how everybody involved in AI is pushing to build their own silicon:
Microsoft and Intel strike a custom chip manufacturing deal - The Verge

 

[cliff harris]

No mention of nvidias buybacks? The company has been doing a lot of them, and it doesn't seem to affect the markets perception of them, and certainly has not hit growth. The amount of cash nvda and tsla hold is similar I think.
Maybe Elon will take notice and go ahead with some small buybacks? It was discussed a few earnings calls ago but then nothing happened, and the cash pile has only grown.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Taking an Amazon approach here and starting from the end goal to going backwards...I really don't know what the end state to all this AI+GPU conglomeration is headed. Does anybody, on this forum, have an idea of what the intended end state is?

I would like to be informed.

Initially: "INSUFFICIENT DATA FOR MEANINGFUL ANSWER"

Eventually: Multivac > Analog Computer > "LET THERE BE LIGHT!"

 

[NicoV]

Tesla even built their own system in about 1 or 2 years, called Dojo. It's difficult to imagine that Nvidia will remain without competition here for a long time.

I forgot to mention: if Tesla succeeds with Dojo, with success meaning:
- supporting the same (or at least enough )training tasks as H100 systems
- for a cheaper price than H100 systems
then, if Tesla is willing to compete with NVidia by offering Dojo to external customers, Dojo alone could be a very big part of the total value of Tesla. Sam Altman estimated to need trillions of dollars for AI training, if Dojo only takes 10% of that market it is still much more than the car business part of Tesla.

 

[CitizenKane]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760464579803635888

I like this. Humble and to the point.

 

[Mengy]

No mention of nvidias buybacks? The company has been doing a lot of them, and it doesn't seem to affect the markets perception of them, and certainly has not hit growth. The amount of cash nvda and tsla hold is similar I think.
Maybe Elon will take notice and go ahead with some small buybacks? It was discussed a few earnings calls ago but then nothing happened, and the cash pile has only grown.

I doubt it. Nvidia buys back shares because they aren't in a strong growth phase like Tesla is. Nvidia doesn't have multiple high cap intensive areas to spend there money on so they buyback shares, while Tesla is actively building new factories, developing multiple new products in new segments, etc.

I don't see Tesla doing buybacks anytime soon, especially with interest rates high and Tesla's own margins so low due to price cuts. However, it is one large reason why NVDA is outperforming so well while TSLA languishes.

 

[jeewee3000]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760464579803635888

I like this. Humble and to the point.

Eh. It's not that humble since he can't resist throwing a diss or two in the direction of Tesla management as reasons for the stock price decline, all the while ignoring the macros (massive rate hikes and current high interest environment).

 

[cliff harris]

I doubt it. Nvidia buys back shares because they aren't in a strong growth phase like Tesla is. Nvidia doesn't have multiple high cap intensive areas to spend there money on so they buyback shares, while Tesla is actively building new factories, developing multiple new products in new segments, etc.

I don't see Tesla doing buybacks anytime soon, especially with interest rates high and Tesla's own margins so low due to price cuts. However, it is one large reason why NVDA is outperforming so well while TSLA languishes.

But we all agree here that Teslas own stock price is low, given their achievements. In that case buying TSLA stock seems like a good investment for Tesla?
I would agree if Tesla were not already involved in massive capital expansion, but even the shanghai megapack factory, the lithium refinery, tooling for next-gen AND Mexico... still leaves a huge cash pile. Also that cash pile is still growing, not shrinking.
Tesla is literally earning money faster than it can physically spend it. Unless Elon has some insane mega-plan for a huge capital investment (much bigger than giga mexico) that will be BUILT (and thus need paying for) within a year, then they can easily use a single quarters net income for buybacks.
Its starting to look silly to just sit on a big bank balance.

I don't agree with gary black on everything, but I do this.

 

[elasalle]

But we all agree here that Teslas own stock price is low, given their achievements. In that case buying TSLA stock seems like a good investment for Tesla?
I would agree if Tesla were not already involved in massive capital expansion, but even the shanghai megapack factory, the lithium refinery, tooling for next-gen AND Mexico... still leaves a huge cash pile. Also that cash pile is still growing, not shrinking.
Tesla is literally earning money faster than it can physically spend it. Unless Elon has some insane mega-plan for a huge capital investment (much bigger than giga mexico) that will be BUILT (and thus need paying for) within a year, then they can easily use a single quarters net income for buybacks.
Its starting to look silly to just sit on a big bank balance.

I don't agree with gary black on everything, but I do this.

Not will be done to bump up SP before Elons pay package is resolved…aug/sept?
… then we have MQ/2 ramp and focus
… so 2026 at the earliest….

 

[elasalle]

And here's today's example of how everybody involved in AI is pushing to build their own silicon:
Microsoft and Intel strike a custom chip manufacturing deal - The Verge

Trying now means NVDA currently has a moat .. will take a couple of years to play out..

 

[Mengy]

But we all agree here that Teslas own stock price is low, given their achievements. In that case buying TSLA stock seems like a good investment for Tesla?
I would agree if Tesla were not already involved in massive capital expansion, but even the shanghai megapack factory, the lithium refinery, tooling for next-gen AND Mexico... still leaves a huge cash pile. Also that cash pile is still growing, not shrinking.
Tesla is literally earning money faster than it can physically spend it. Unless Elon has some insane mega-plan for a huge capital investment (much bigger than giga mexico) that will be BUILT (and thus need paying for) within a year, then they can easily use a single quarters net income for buybacks.
Its starting to look silly to just sit on a big bank balance.

I don't agree with gary black on everything, but I do this.

TSLA doing buybacks would be great for us, the investors, but Tesla (and Musk) really doesn't care about their stock price. Tesla is profitable now and making good money per quarter, they won't need to sell shares to raise money anymore, so the value of TSLA is mostly inconsequential to them.

Buybacks for Tesla (today) is a case where the investors interests don't align well with the companies growth interests. I'm pretty sure Tesla would rather have the cash on hand instead of a higher TSLA price. IMHO of course.

 

[Max Plaid]

Eh. It's not that humble since he can't resist throwing a diss or two in the direction of Tesla management as reasons for the stock price decline, all the while ignoring the macros (massive rate hikes and current high interest environment).

And the moment any TSLA bull writes anything negative it gets pushed by the media ASAP

It should also be remembered that Gary's "Future Fund" holds less TSLA than most folks here, currently 3700 shares:

 

[CHGolferJim]

And the moment any TSLA bull writes anything negative it gets pushed by the media ASAP

View attachment 1020748

It should also be remembered that Gary's "Future Fund" holds less TSLA than most folks here, currently 3700 shares:

View attachment 1020750

Didn’t realize his fund is so small……..

 

[Max Plaid]

But we all agree here that Teslas own stock price is low, given their achievements. In that case buying TSLA stock seems like a good investment for Tesla?
I would agree if Tesla were not already involved in massive capital expansion, but even the shanghai megapack factory, the lithium refinery, tooling for next-gen AND Mexico... still leaves a huge cash pile. Also that cash pile is still growing, not shrinking.
Tesla is literally earning money faster than it can physically spend it. Unless Elon has some insane mega-plan for a huge capital investment (much bigger than giga mexico) that will be BUILT (and thus need paying for) within a year, then they can easily use a single quarters net income for buybacks.
Its starting to look silly to just sit on a big bank balance.

I don't agree with gary black on everything, but I do this.

Not really, I would say that TSLA was artificially high when it was at ATH, ridiculously so and that currently other stocks are inflated over the AI bubble, which is making TSLA look relatively worse - but plenty of other stocks in the S&P are way down too

TSLA was all about high growth and high margins, now they've shifted to good growth and good margins, which is still great, but total lack of guidance, whether you agree with that or not, is a negative, at least for now, if 2024 goes well, then the no-guidance could become normal without impacting in the future

Lots for Tesla still to prove I'm afraid, whether that's FSD, Gen 3, Dojo, Optimus, CT ramp, all of these, I don't know

But no, I wouldn't say TSLA was particularly low right now, even with my bullish outlook I would say mid $200's would be a fairer refection in the coming months, but no higher than that

 

[Tony73]

I doubt it. Nvidia buys back shares because they aren't in a strong growth phase like Tesla is. Nvidia doesn't have multiple high cap intensive areas to spend there money on so they buyback shares, while Tesla is actively building new factories, developing multiple new products in new segments, etc.

I don't see Tesla doing buybacks anytime soon, especially with interest rates high and Tesla's own margins so low due to price cuts. However, it is one large reason why NVDA is outperforming so well while TSLA languishes.

Data center revenue +409% Y/Y
In what universe is Nvidia not in a strong growth phase right now ?

I personally do not believe Tesla should do a buyback but let’s get real about Tesla’s current growth.

 

[Max Plaid]

Didn’t realize his fund is so small……..

Yeah, a lot of noise for such a small fish...

Ross Gerber gets a lot of derision with his hissy-fits, but to be fair at least his fund has around 400k TSLA in it

 

[cliff harris]

Wow I had no idea bout gary's shares. Even I have >20,000 .