Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Big Time]

What is the going consensus for cybertruck deliveries in Q1 and what will that add to earnings? Nvidia is making 2X net profit of Tesla, we need an extra 10 billion? Tesla needs to hit up the couch cushions…

Release FSD in China? Or happy medium between autopilot and FSD? A reoccurring revenue stream would be nice.
Energy projects getting paid upon completion?
Preorders for Gen3?
Cybertruck Profits?

 

[wipster]

I was bored and tired, so I pulled a Wipster and took a much needed 2+ hour nap. Woke up to read this:

"(Reuters) - Ford Motor(F) has halted shipments of all 2024 model year F-150 Lightning electric pickups over an undisclosed quality issue, Automotive News reported on Friday citing a company spokesperson. "

The competition is failing faster than they were rumored to have been coming.

HODL

Hey, I resemble that remark!

And as for the Lightnings, I think the stop productions and the physical recalls amongst the OEM's who will insist and persist upon using their existing systems to correct mistakes in engineering and manufacturing have just begun. Same thing is going to happen to GM, Stellantis, Toyota, Honda et al and I hope it doesn't give EV's in general a black eye. I frankly wish them all success to help Tesla in ridding the world of ICE vehicles, but I fear it's going to be a much longer road for Mary and Jim

 

[alhounos]

FSD progress is everything at this point. The world (rightly) has AI mania and all the money is going into that black hole.

 

[Nakata]

This video demonstrates perfectly why getting people to drive a tesla is way more important then advertising.
This guy has a youtube channel described as:
"The Old Byrd Farm Vlog documents the restoration and preservation of a 140 year old farm and farm house in Georgia. "

He has no real knowledge of how to drive a tesla.
For instance he strugles to turn the car of

But after driving for a few minutes he is sold.

 

[Mengy]

We need 1-5 webcams online showing Tesla Bot doing productive, continuous work in some Gigafactory. Then WS and investors and another companies will see the true value of Bot. This can realistically happen already this year. Or 2025. Or next. Who knows?

And my guess is that Optimus will be leased, not sold, to other industrial companies. Value of Bot only grows as bot fleet learns more skills. It would be stupid to sell them.

I'm pretty confident Tesla will have bots working in their factories this year, in 2024, in at least some form of testing / prototyping capacity. Whether we see it or not is another thing.

 

[cliff harris]

We need 1-5 webcams online showing Tesla Bot doing productive, continuous work in some Gigafactory. Then WS and investors and another companies will see the true value of Bot.

Much though I'd enjoy this, I kind of hope they do not. Tesla does not need to raise money, and the SP will get enough of a walk upwards from the CT ramp, lower interest rates, and start of Semi sales, not even including the model 2 reveal or juniper when they happen.
Much better to just keep working on optimus, making it better and better, and more useful, and not tip off anyone. They don't need to, unless they have genuine worries that they could lose out on robotics recruitment, which seems unlikely.

If I was elon, I'd be tempted to keep optimus progress entirely under wraps. Much better to wait until the inevitable leaked phone video showing two dozen bots working away on some part of a production line. Tesla doesn't have to churn out boston-robotics style meme videos in desperate search for the next buyer.

 

[Carl Raymond]

This video demonstrates perfectly why getting people to drive a tesla is way more important then advertising.
This guy has a youtube channel described as:
"The Old Byrd Farm Vlog documents the restoration and preservation of a 140 year old farm and farm house in Georgia. "

He has no real knowledge of how to drive a tesla.
For instance he strugles to turn the car of

But after driving for a few minutes he is sold.

I don’t think he twigged at any point that he could wake up to a full battery every day, or that it had no scheduled servicing. Calling it a “normal car” is something you might do if you had staff to go fill up and handle servicing. Or maybe I just detested those things more than normal people.

 

[DragonWatch]

Are you sure their mess is worth fixing or can even be fixed?

Without running with the ball and listing the many things Tesla would have to scrap or redo, I can’t think of a single thing worth the effort it would take.

The Rivian pickup has to be entirely broken down and rebuilt in a profitable, Tesla, way. I don’t even see how Tesla has the time to fix it. It would be like starting with an ICEV and trying to turn it into a BEV. By the time Tesla was done, they might as well have started their traditional pickup truck from scratch.

There’s no way the Rivian factory is set up efficiently. There’s no way the employees have Tesla culture. Just no.

First, thank you for giving my suggestion/thoughts the time of day. The cat missing an ear, blind in one eye and cannot see out of the other like @Artful Dodger had at one point more accurately reflect me throughout life.

Everything you said, is spot on. However, I am, and never have been money driven. That is how and why I scared the holly crap out of legacy officers. They were focused on doctrine and promotion (ring knockers) ~ I was focused on doing the challenging work that provided me personal gratification/challenge.

Nothing I say will become “the Tesla (TSLA) way.” However, Elon is a multidimensional thinker ~ not an engineer; engineering is just a sideline or tool. His thinking could formulate immediate corrections to stabilize the nose bleed while relocating and or retooling the current situation. This becomes a long-range plan.

We/Tesla need to focus on the long run/end game. I bought into the long game of purchasing Solar City for Solar Tesla roofs. I installed sixty panels on my 2021 purchased home. Nothing to do with Tesla other than four Powerwalls. I could not beg a contractor to redo my roof with Tesla solar roof after removing a metal roof. Later, I found that there were too many angles on this roof and out of circle of influence ~ too far to drive for install team. I tried!

I know the ramifications of bleeding money ~ I have been my whole life. I like to do what might be good, not what is doctrine/legacy. Telling me “no” is like waving a red flag in my face. Yes, I know, red is the Field Artillery color.

@Krugerrand ~ “No” might be the correct answer, I just do not like missing a target of opportunity.

Cheers

FYI ~ no Elon will not give me a military discount on my X.

 

[Krugerrand]

First, thank you for giving my suggestion/thoughts the time of day. The cat missing an ear, blind in one eye and cannot see out of the other like @Artful Dodger had at one point more accurately reflect me throughout life.

Everything you said, is spot on. However, I am, and never have been money driven. That is how and why I scared the holly crap out of legacy officers. They were focused on doctrine and promotion (ring knockers) ~ I was focused on doing the challenging work that provided me personal gratification/challenge.

Nothing I say will become “the Tesla (TSLA) way.” However, Elon is a multidimensional thinker ~ not an engineer; engineering is just a sideline or tool. His thinking could formulate immediate corrections to stabilize the nose bleed while relocating and or retooling the current situation. This becomes a long-range plan.

We/Tesla need to focus on the long run/end game. I bought into the long game of purchasing Solar City for Solar Tesla roofs. I installed sixty panels on my 2021 purchased home. Nothing to do with Tesla other than four Powerwalls. I could not beg a contractor to redo my roof with Tesla solar roof after removing a metal roof. Later, I found that there were too many angles on this roof and out of circle of influence ~ too far to drive for install team. I tried!

I know the ramifications of bleeding money ~ I have been my whole life. I like to do what might be good, not what is doctrine/legacy. Telling me “no” is like waving a red flag in my face. Yes, I know, red is the Field Artillery color.

@Krugerrand ~ “No” might be the correct answer, I just do not like missing a target of opportunity.

Cheers

FYI ~ no Elon will not give me a military discount on my X.

LOL! I generally respond the same as you when told, no.

I just can’t see enough upside for the initial 10B investment plus extra investment, especially with everything else on their plate. I’m not convinced the vehicle itself offers anything of much significance to Tesla.

 

[GhostSkater]

What is the going consensus for cybertruck deliveries in Q1 and what will that add to earnings?

Right now it seem productions is somewhere between 50 to 100 a day, so just adding for the remaining of the quarter without any growth, 1750 to 3500, plus maybe 500 produced so far?

I don't think these volumes will add anything on the quarter, it will actually lose money until they are at least on the ~300 a day, which is a bit less than half of the stated capacity

Anyone remembers what was the production rate at Berlin when Elon said it was cash flow positive? It might be different here because it's just a line, not the whole factory that is amortized

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1761177053620023534

 

[Artful Dodger]

What's your loDgic Lodger?

$1,089 per share is approx. when NVDA == AAPL. Thar's a new Sheriff in town, and his name is Huang...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Berlin's expansion has been voted against but maybe this will make them move a bit East?

No, that was just for the Logistics Yard expansion, away from the town of Grunheide by more than 2 km. It'll be rejiggerd and eventually built.

The Factory expansion is on the land already cleared. It's going through the regular permitting process now, rather than the expedited process used for Phase 1. This new factory will almost certainly build Gen 3 vehicles (and perhaps Semi?).

I'm still hopeful the Model 2 will be build in unused space inside Phase 1 (it was sized for 2 Model Y lines, but has just 1 line ATM). All the 6,500 Ton Gigapresses are already installed, so if Model 2 uses front+rear castings rather than a single casting (as some of us have speculated) then it's doable. What they're mostly missing is a battery cell workshop (costs vs LFP import). If 4680s @ Giga Texas prove out, that could be cloned quickly in Berlin.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

I was bored and tired, so I pulled a Wipster and took a much needed 2+ hour nap. Woke up to read this:

"(Reuters) - Ford Motor(F) has halted shipments of all 2024 model year F-150 Lightning electric pickups over an undisclosed quality issue, Automotive News reported on Friday citing a company spokesperson. "

The competition is failing faster than they were rumored to have been coming.

HODL

What's worse is the "Ford Lightning Sales Halt" started on Feb 09, and rotoREUTERS just got around to reporting about it today? Jolly jokers (wholly pwned jokers).

I guess they were to busy picking up their RAZZIE Award for investing urinals to DO THEIR BLODDY JOBS

Ford Stops Shipping Electric F-150 Pickup Due to Quality Issue | bnnbloomberg.ca (5 hrs ago)

Ford Stops Shipping Electric F-150 Pickup Due to Quality Issue - BNN Bloomberg

Ford Motor Co. has halted shipments of its F-150 Lightning plug-in pickup for an undisclosed quality issue just weeks after cutting production of the battery-powered model due to slowing sales.

www.bnnbloomberg.ca

Cheers to the FAKERS!

 

[Artful Dodger]

I still remember in early/mid 2012 when he and Nick ‘Faraday’ Sampson left. The media AND TMC frenzy of doom that ensued was epic. Turns out neither one was worth much and certainly not to Tesla yet sooooooooo many were convinced it was end of days for Tesla. The SP also took the prerequisite dump.

Somebody called out Peter Rawlinson about his $379M CEO comp. on their Earning Call this week... ironically that's $220M MOAR than Lucid earned in total Revenue in 2023 (yikes!)

Fancy song'n'dance, with a limbo flourish to finish. Don't sound like he's going to court, though. Pity.

 

[Artful Dodger]

He hasn’t been fully engaged since he bought the bird

In 2023-24, Elon personally met with the leaders of Italy, India, Indonesia, Israel and France plus he had a secret visit to the White House in September. So please, tell us what a FULLY ENGAGED CEO would do?

World leaders court Elon Musk for Tesla factory - Axios › Economy | Sep 19, 2023

Or you think his lieutenants can't do their jobs w/o daily handholding? After 12 years? Riddikulus.

Elon's looking after the big stuff that matters. He hasn't missed a Tesla meeting since taking over Twitter, which stands to become Tesla's principle means of fighting FUD. Pretending he's not engaged is insulting to him, and investors who don't buy into your style of boggart.

 

[15Peter20]

Stock went down today because someone Tesla knows didn’t buy some pies, and that’s racist. Or something.

 

[spacerfc]

Stock went down today because someone Tesla knows didn’t buy some pies, and that’s racist. Or something.

Elon is on the case:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1761105207306469826

 

[insaneoctane]

"(Reuters) - Ford Motor(F) has halted shipments of all 2024 model year F-150 Lightning electric pickups over an undisclosed quality issue, Automotive News reported on Friday citing a company spokesperson. "

The undisclosed quality issue was poor profits...

 

[SmokyPeat]

Figure AI has obtained a huge amount of investment from Nvidia, Microsoft, OpenAI, Jeff Bezos, Amazon, Intel, LG, Samsung and other big names to develop human form factor robotics. Their initial model will be the Figure 01.

Bezos, Microsoft join OpenAI in humanoid robot startup

Jeff Bezos, Microsoft and other big technology names are investing in a business, Figure, that's developing humanlike robots.

www.seattletimes.com