Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kbM3]

I learned my lesson on Pan Am many decades ago.

It had dropped to $5 and I bought a bunch. Major US airline, and even this was foretold in the movies:

"Since there's a bottom to these things" I bought more around 2 1/2. In very short order it was trading well below $1, and at that point just holding on made sense, since there might be a "bottom" from which it could rebound. Turned out there was no bottom. Lesson learned.

NOT saying I expect Tesla stock to go to zero, only that one has to be careful making assumptions about future stock price.

You learned the wrong lesson then. Even IF Tesla goes bankrupt, you would be $20 / share ahead had you bought at $180 vs $200.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Indeed, it could be worthwhile. However, for the long-run I might suggest selling the German factory as soon as a replacement can be constructed elsewhere in Europe.

Yeah, I hear there's plenty of cheap land in Sweden. /s

You don't leave the arena because you got a bloody nose. Tesla needs to get firm public statements from their host governments (not just in Germany). Terrorism is part of an extended PR campaign, the State and Federal Government needs to denounce this strongly, support Tesla and its Mission, and declare that these criminals will be found and prosecuted (i know, i can dream).

IF Metall was just the start with their mafia-like anit-labor campaign. Entrenched interests won't stop attacking Tesla just because they move; its already a multi-national effort to damage, slow, or stop them. No different than in U.S. States that ban Tesla direct car sales. Only large corporations have this kind of reach. As always, follow the money. Who is most threatened by the success of Tesla? (it's a long list, but can be narrowed down locally).

The old industries (and their legions) won't die without a fight. Thankfully, Elon anticipated these struggles and prepared Tesla in advance with a fortress balance sheet so that their enemies have one fewer vector of attack. We are seeing the other avenues now, but Elon learned long ago, you don't run from a bully, you bloody his nose.

 

[Knightshade]

Lol, but you slept through the day after the CT Delivery Event when Toni Scaramouche went on CNBC with his Best Idea for 2024: "Short TSLA" ?

TBF he said that the day the stock closed at $243.84 in December,

If you'd taken his advice you'd be up over $60/share right now.

That said- the dude has been a sell on TSLA since 2016 at $16/share, so bit of a stopped clock deal.

 

[Artful Dodger]

But we are talking about a 100% autark system on site, correct? You would need Wind turbines as an addition to solar on any roof and open space.

Translation for the Armenians among you:

[aʊ̯ˈtaʁk] German for 'Independent' or 'Self-Sufficient'​

Prost!

 

[MC3OZ]

Insurance underwriters invariably have operating losses in the beginning of operations, primarily because insurance, by definition, deals with loss probabilities, with the ‘law of large numbers’ ruling. Just as production only becomes efficient with scale, so does insurance. As Tesla underwriting scales, overhead grows much more slowly than does premium income. Further, as volume increases so does the variance from expected loss become lower. Those together yield increased profitability.

In short, those losses are a function of startup, not errors in judgement. We should be elated that they’re making disclosures already! I had expected larger losses, especially since they’re testing new underwriting processes.

We could say a fair chunk of that is also "customer acquisition costs".

Expansion - premiums generally need to be below competitors to attract new customers.

Consolidation - premiums only need to be roughly equal to competitors to retain customers.

it isn't all price, but there first thing most prospective new customers do is get a quote. Very few read the detailed policy terms and conditions, and fewer compare this for different insurance polices. I've never done it, because life is too short to compare two long and very difficult to compare documents with obscure wording.

Depending on how competitors respond, Tesla could be in the expansion phase for sometime.

If competitors respond by dropping Tesla insurance premiums, that helps new car sales, and Tesla might decide to back off expansion a bit.

Finally there is "learning by doing", both in the underwriting and claims side, Tesla will gather valuable data, including on repair costs. Trying to reduce repair costs to lower claim amounts is an obvious move and a small slice of market share is probably sufficient to gather the required data.

I was once told that this "Expansion" / "Consolidation" phase even applies to bank mangers. A bank will put an "Expansion" manager in a branch for a few years and follow them up with a "Consolidation" manager. I bet the "Consolidation" managers are not had to find. Now that "Expansion" manager is off expanding the next branch. I think they are probably happy to move, because most of their achievements will be in the first 1-2 years. This was at a particular bank, I don't know if all banks use that strategy.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Any James Douma fans in the house? Here's an 11 min 'ride-along' on FSD v12.2.1 through twisty back roads, hills and pedestrian foot-traffic with Bradford Ferguson (Rebellionaire)

Tesla FSD v12 Blows James Douma's Mind | Bradford Ferguson (4 hrs ago)

TL;dw FSD v12 handles these tricky situations like Pro: smooth, safe and comfortable.

Cheers!

 

[heltok]

Guess we moved 2 steps on the march of nines:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765165241451909374

 

[Maarten]

In the mean time… BYD not waiting till their RoRo Capacity has been built.
Cars in standard size container frames, ready to be transported by containerships.
What you see here is the European car producers' nightmare.

 

[spacerfc]

OT: Last post for the arson attack that destroyed the power supply of Giga Berlin. I've got the complete Letter of confession of the extremists now. This is part of it:
Shut down volcano group Tesla! : Attack on power supply
We sabotaged Tesla today. Because Tesla in Grünau eats up earth, resources, people, manpower and spits out 6000 SUVś, killer machines and monster trucks per week. Our gift for March 8 is to shut down Tesla.
Because the complete destruction of the Gigafactory and with it the cutting off of "techno-fascists" like Elend Musk are a step on the path to liberation from patriarchy.

Having read the manifesto of the previous arson attack against Tesla, it's pretty clear that these attacks from left-wing has little to do with Elon personally or his politics or his tweets, they're attacking Tesla because Tesla is a super efficient capitalist machine that solves a problem they need to have.

We're seeing similar patterns in the US, where activists oppose SpaceX doing a land exchange with Texas Parks & Wildlife Department for all sort of petty reasons - including a fake tribe claiming SpaceX is colonizing their ancestral land - except anything related to Elon.

Should be obvious by now that Elon is not the bad guy here, he's not the one damaging Tesla or any of his companies, no matter what he tweeted. His companies got attacked because they're doing exactly what they're designed to do: Help humanity. Those who claim Elon is a liability or is "spiraling" are totally delusional.

 

[growler23]

In the mean time… BYD not waiting till their RoRo Capacity has been built.
Cars in standard size container frames, ready to be transported by containerships.
What you see here is the European car producers' nightmare.

View attachment 1024996

Shades of the Clone Wars! ((shiver))

 

[MartinAustin]

TSLA has been bouncing off the $177 region for a while. But... the highs and lows are trending down since last July. I wonder if $177 is a floor, or just a boundary it wants to push through

 

[GOVA]

Any James Douma fans in the house? Here's an 11 min 'ride-along' on FSD v12.2.1 through twisty back roads, hills and pedestrian foot-traffic with Bradford Ferguson (Rebellionaire)

Tesla FSD v12 Blows James Douma's Mind | Bradford Ferguson (4 hrs ago)

TL;dw FSD v12 handles these tricky situations like Pro: smooth, safe and comfortable.

Cheers!

Yes, well, but then I see this also in SFO but things don't look too peachy.

What do you think?

 

[WattsHappening]

You just watched the Eddie Murphy's movie Trading Places? Didn't you?

Was Eddie Murphy in that movie?

I was a young adult male when that movie came out, and the only actor in that movie I remember is Jamie Lee Curtis.

 

[wipster]

World Accessible Charging System?

40 of them?

 

[heltok]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765192628935557528

 

[AndrewZ]

In the mean time… BYD not waiting till their RoRo Capacity has been built.
Cars in standard size container frames, ready to be transported by containerships.
What you see here is the European car producers' nightmare.

View attachment 1024996

You’re thinking Europe won’t protect its industry? I think the days of Chinese products (likely heavily subsidized) flooding countries to destroy domestic competition are gone, the world has become too wise to it.

Europe won’t let itself become beholden to car companies based in foreign entities of concern, and the US of course already has its own strategy around this with tariffs and the Inflation Reduction Act.

 

[advocate8]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765066222381711803

Wow in 3 months from now - don't they need to ramp up EVs first?

A good start would be even making a single model that works reliably and has useful range. They aint there. It’s pretty, but not much of a functioning car.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Having read the manifesto of the previous arson attack against Tesla, it's pretty clear that these attacks from left-wing has little to do with Elon personally or his politics or his tweets, they're attacking Tesla because Tesla is a super efficient capitalist machine that solves a problem they need to have.

Indeed, today's "confession communique" in German media slipped up by calling out Telsa "Monster trucks", a product which Tesla does not manufacture in Germany, nor even import to Europe.

Clearly, the financial backers of this act of terrorism are afraid of what Cybertuck demand is doing to their own truck sales. The crowd gets thin when the noose grows tighter... watch the money.

 

[Artful Dodger]

What do you think?

Same as I thought before: it's a Beta, and you are still the Driver! Just take over if its not driving the way you do. It's these disengagements, more than anything, that inform the Autopilot team what features need attention.

30,000' view? It's not the State of Progress that matters; its the Rate of Progress that matters! Graduation day is coming, then you'll miss these days, and reflect on them fondly.

Cheers to the proud parents, and patient beta testers!

 

[Richard007]

Added 100 chairs today - back to low
200’s soon enough. Might as well make some extra change. Not advise.