Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[uscbucsfan]

I've counted the cell on Rivian structural pack

34 by 8 cells on each module, 3 modules, extrapolating from 4680 energy content of 86 to 95 Wh per cell, each 4695 cell should be somewhere from 102 to 113 Wh

In that config, R2 pack should be somewhere around 83 to 92 kWh, no point trying to predict efficiency since all we know is 300+ miles of range, but I wouldn't expect it to beat or even get close to Model Y efficiency since it's much boxier and higher

We can also try to speculate pack voltage, configs that are easy to do in this pack layout are 102S8P and 367 V nominal and 204S4P 734 V

I don't think they will go higher voltage since for smaller vehicles it doesn't make much sense, plus larger cells without a tabless electrode or similar charge slower (or even with tabless, looking at you Cybertruck)

View attachment 1025619

Someone on the Rivian forum said the 4695 cells were traditional lithium-ion chemistry and would therefore hold much more energy than the 4680s, even if they were the same size. I didn't read much more, because it's all speculation.

What do you think about that statement? BS? Impossible to tell?

 

[Cult Member]

It's got a very retro 80's vibe to me:

View attachment 1025588View attachment 1025589

Right, that doesn't look like the future.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Right, that doesn't look like the future.

Everyone has their taste. It's seemingly really well received...even more so than the R2 from what I've seen (doesn't mean much).

 

[mongo]

Someone on the Rivian forum said the 4695 cells were traditional lithium-ion chemistry and would therefore hold much more energy than the 4680s, even if they were the same size. I didn't read much more, because it's all speculation.

What do you think about that statement? BS? Impossible to tell?

Assuming 5mm dead space, they should hold, 90/75 = 20% more energy per cell. Volumetric and gravimetric gains will be less (amortizing edge caps).

 

[Artful Dodger]

[R3 has] got a very retro 80's vibe to me:

Lol, yep that's a Pontiac Aztec right up it there!



Cheers to the Odd-Balls!

 

[MP3Mike]

Someone on the Rivian forum said the 4695 cells were traditional lithium-ion chemistry and would therefore hold much more energy than the 4680s, even if they were the same size. I didn't read much more, because it's all speculation.

But 4680 cells are using traditional lithium-ion chemistry... (More traditional than what is currently used in the 18650s and 2170s, that use a newer chemistry that includes silicon.)

 

[cliff harris]

Eh, it's closer to 3 acres per MWdc for fixed tilt.

https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-01/lbnl_ieee-land-requirements-for-utility-scale-pv.pdf

Good catch! I'm thinking in hectares, which for some dumb reason is the unit of measurement my farm uses. Quite why hectares is even a thing is a mystery... I'm also talking ground mount, which is not as space-efficient as rooftop.
But yeah, its a lot!

 

[uscbucsfan]

But 4680 cells are using traditional lithium-ion chemistry... (More traditional than what is currently used in the 18650s and 2170s, that use a newer chemistry that includes silicon.)

I'm not sure, that's why I asked.

I think the poster just copied this article:

Rivian's New Battery Cell Could Be Even Better Than Tesla's

Rivian's R2 SEV debuts with striking looks, a compact form factor, and a never-before-seen battery known as the 4695.

www.motor1.com

Eh, maybe not. It's contradicting what they said...and mostly speculation.

I would guess they think they are above the growing pains Tesla has experienced with the 4680.

 

[NicoV]

It's got a very retro 80's vibe to me:

View attachment 1025588View attachment 1025589

Looks like a Lada Niva:

Lada Niva - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Cult Member]

Lol, yep that's a Pontiac Aztec right up it there!



Cheers to the Odd-Balls!

A Maestro, or not?

http://www.simoncars.co.uk/austin/slides/Austin%20Maestro%2013%201983%20rear.jpg

 

[GhostSkater]

Someone on the Rivian forum said the 4695 cells were traditional lithium-ion chemistry and would therefore hold much more energy than the 4680s, even if they were the same size. I didn't read much more, because it's all speculation.

What do you think about that statement? BS? Impossible to tell?

BS, 4680s Gen 2 energy density are on par with the high volume most energy dense cells at 267 Wh/kg, some 2170 are 10 to 15 Wh/kg higher, but that's it, not a big difference

 

[uscbucsfan]

BS, 4680s Gen 2 energy density are on par with the high volume most energy dense cells at 267 Wh/kg, some 2170 are 10 to 15 Wh/kg higher, but that's it, not a big difference

But those 2170s are much smaller

 

[Stretch2727]

Group statement from Giga Berlin.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765806108113883252

 

[MC3OZ]

How much range will Model 2 have? If less than 230, it is very similar to Nissan Leaf. The only advantage will be that it can charge at TESLA network. I doubt Model 2 will be able to push TESLA to the largest automaker.

Tesla has never stated an aim of getting to 20 Million vehicle sales per year with a single additional model.

The cost savings from the Gen3 process apply to vehicles of any shape and size.

As the world moves from ICE to EV, additional charring will open up in various locations:-

• EV chargers added to ICE gas stations.
• Redevelopment of ICE gas station sites in a multi-storey format with basement, street level or rooftop charging.
• Adding EV charging to existing car parks
• Street level EV charging.

In simple terms when a car is parked somewhere it can be charged at that location, and where ICE gas is currently sold, cars can be charged.

For smaller car, a 50 kW charge rate is probably sufficient, or L2 charging during the day.

I expect at least 3 Gen3 models and 1-2 of them will hopefully be Robotaxis. Any vehicles made for the internal Robotaxi fleet still count in the numbers.

For the Model 2 it will have a range of battery sizes, and possibly a range of chemistries. There is a cost/range/cycle life trade off.

One reason Tesla might be the largest automaker could be the the current large automakers are selling a lot fewer cars. Or BYD might become the largest automaker, 20 million per year is not necessarily the largest.

Yes, I think Elon and the team are shooting for the 20 Million vehicles per year target, they may be late, but they might still make it, or go very close.

 

[GhostSkater]

But those 2170s are much smaller

Energy vs energy density, and you can also go volumetric energy density (Wh/L), gravimetric (Wh/kg) and also less common but makes sense in a EV is areal energy density (Wh/m²), this last one makes more sense for vertically aligned cylindrical cells

Right now, the most volumetric and gravimetric energy dense cell is the LG INR2170-M58T, which tops out at 285 Wh/kg and 796 Wh/L, Rivian uses them in their Max Pack

 

[unk45]

What yahoo finance posted on my TSLA page today.
Stock performances since exactly 5 years ago
TSLA up 857%
S&P up 85%

You old codgers can sit on your sacks in comfort.

Yes we can!

 

[Tony73]

You think they learned from Tesla. Even Elon is using restraint on hyping new products until closer to production. This seems like a desperation attempt to change the narrative. Everyone knows Rivian is loosing money. If these debuts do not increase buyer attention or a major influx of orders, then Rivian is done.

And that brings me no joy in stating that.

Rivian does not lack buyers. The R1S outsells model X in the U.S. The problem they have is absolutely horrible gross margin.

 

[unk45]

people who are buying $25000 car won't spend another $6000 for EAP, let alone $12000 for FSD.
No one can match it doesn't mean people have to buy it. ICE car refill gas speed is still way faster.

You are forgetting about much if the world where ‘small’ dies nit necessary mean cheap. For examples, just compare highest specification VW Golf with base, or even almost all of the brands that sell ‘pocket rockets’ in many countries. I have owned Fiat Uno ie which was 2 1/2 times base, a Peugeot 204 CLI, similarly more than twice base. The NA populace are generally totally unaware of those, which, while I had access to such data for two OEM’s, generating more than 100% of the profit on the car line. The base models invariably were priced to cover all variable costs and a modest contribution to fixed costs.

Tesla will not copy that model but…as always the Performance and LR model tend to carry the most high margin options, just as always. Who buy FSD, colors, etc.?

Don’t deceive yourself. Even the ‘Model 2’ will follow the pattern. It will make money, no doubt about that.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Energy vs energy density, and you can also go volumetric energy density (Wh/L), gravimetric (Wh/kg) and also less common but makes sense in a EV is areal energy density (Wh/m²), this last one makes more sense for vertically aligned cylindrical cells

Right now, the most volumetric and gravimetric energy dense cell is the LG INR2170-M58T, which tops out at 285 Wh/kg and 796 Wh/L, Rivian uses them in their Max Pack

Thanks for the explanation.

 

[wipster]

I dunno, looks like a Gremlin to me...