Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jamaatta]

Tsla Chan posted yesterda also:

"NEWS: Tesla China is posting more job openings to increase its delivery team and staff in several fields.

- Ignore the noise and see the essence."

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765691555011277163

 

[Ellec]

> Not to sell vehicles, but to position the company itself for sale.

I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla bought them. Expand their offerings and use their manufacturing expertise to build them profitably. Rivian also has that van they are building with Amazon. Cybertruck is cool, but I think Tesla could sell more Rivian style vehicles than Rivian can and make money doing so. Maybe keep it as a separate brand.

I would be very surprised, it would be like Apple buying a startup phone company, there is no tech in the Rivian that Tesla doesn't already have. Tesla also has an exciting product pipeline and can execute mass production of it given their experience. Rivian has nothing that Tesla needs, best to wait till they go bankrupt (I hope they succeed but it would be a miracle at this point) and maybe hire the best talent. The brand, the tech, the designs, Tesla already has, but theirs is far superior.

 

[NicoV]

The brand, the tech, the designs, Tesla already has, but theirs is far superior.

Tesla’s scale is also an order of magnitude higher.

 

[Cult Member]

The work council organized an event to support the factory and TESLA:
The Tesla Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg has decided today together with the workforce to make a statement tomorrow, Friday, March 8, 2024, at 5:00 pm in the lobby of the Gigafactory that they will not be interrupted at all, but will continue and protest against this attack.
Tesla is therefore calling on all employees and their families to gather for a two-hour meeting to protest against this terrorist attack. This is what the employees of the Tesla Gigafactory wanted. The employees are horrified and sad and therefore want to set an example with this event.
They are to take out their cell phones in the evening and light up their flashlights like at a concert. This emotional moment will be recorded with a drone and is intended to send a signal for peace, strength and the future.
Everyone who is close to the Berlin-Brandenburg region is invited to come to the Tesla Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg, as well as anyone else who has time to make a statement and stand behind Tesla and its employees.
It will be an important moment for Tesla and its employees. Make a statement with Tesla!
The motto of the Tesla Gigafactory Berlin-Brandenburg is: "WE ARE GIGA-4 THE FUTURE" and that's what we all stand for!
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)

Please spread the message wherever you can:

 

[hobbes]

Good background article on Giga Berlin:

Germany: Sabotage case launched against Tesla protesters – DW – 03/07/2024

A far-left group claimed responsibility for attacking the power grid connected to Tesla's Gigafactory near Berlin. An electricity pylon was the target of arson, turning the lights off for thousands of local households.

www.dw.com

 

[SmokyPeat]

It seems the Model 3 Ludicrous will be available in May with ~614 hp or 130 hp more than the current M3P!

New Tesla Model 3 Ludicrous Performance Version Coming in May with +600 HP (Rumors) - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! The newly refreshed Tesla ... [continued]

cleantechnica-com.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[advocate8]

That's correct. However, I think it would be difficult to implement a policy that guts the 7500K credit. It would be challenged in court and it would be very unpopular. Remember, the 7500K credit is needed by the legacy OEMs more than Tesla.

It will almost certainly happen. Anything EV is on a hit list, and the move would not be unpopular with the people they want please. And even it it was, they’d do it anyway. The bottom line is we can expect a number of moves that will impact the expansion of EVs and by extension our investments in the industry. It will just be another dip to buy on, albeit a lengthy one. ICE is on the wrong side of history. History just takes awhile. HODL.

 

[Singuy]

From statista.com - the only thing I cropped off was a projection for 2024 (which also showed growth, but it’s only a projection so I cut that off). Global car sales 2019-2023 | Statista

But your chart above shows the same thing mine did: Interest rates bottomed out at all time lows in 2020/21, and as interest rates have risen since then car sales have also increased as well from pandemic lows.

Also, according to the chart you have above, car sales indeed peaked in 2017, and then started receding, yet Tesla was growing units very fast over that period.

So why is tesla growth rate in 2024 suddenly supposedly heavily reliant on interest rates and overall auto industry growth, when it wasn’t at all in the past? If that is true, what has changed? Why can Tesla no longer rapidly gobble up increasing marketshare anymore?

Law of big numbers is what changed. Eventually you couldn't even grow items given out for free given by Jesus himself. Tesla sell more than BMW and Mercedes total units with only 2 car models. This is unprecedented and you cannot expect them to get to toyota numbers at 2x the asp.

 

[NicoV]

First review of the Cybertruck Basecamp: https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/basecamp-tent-first-review-⛺︎.12964/

This is the thing that made me reserve a Cybertruck many years ago.
I wasn’t so sure anymore after it was released.
With this review I’m even less sure.

 

[Stretch2727]

> Not to sell vehicles, but to position the company itself for sale.

I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla bought them. Expand their offerings and use their manufacturing expertise to build them profitably. Rivian also has that van they are building with Amazon. Cybertruck is cool, but I think Tesla could sell more Rivian style vehicles than Rivian can and make money doing so. Maybe keep it as a separate brand.

Tempting at only 2% dilution if they used TSLA stock. But then you inherit a huge cash drain on the business that will probably continue for another year or two.

The problem is the gross margin at RIVN. Fixing this will not be easy as it requires more than just volume scale. Likely total redesigns so Tesla does not really get anything. RJ seems like a good guy but how they got into such a terrible financial situation does not reflect well on him. Tesla always had positive gross margin in the early days when they were making similarity priced vehicles. I just don't understand how they went forward. If you don't have positive gross margin, or something close to it, is very hard to volume scale to get to positive net margins.

 

[jerry33]

First review of the Cybertruck Basecamp: https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/basecamp-tent-first-review-︎.12964/

This is the thing that made me reserve a Cybertruck many years ago.
I wasn’t so sure anymore after it was released.
With this review I’m even less sure.

I suspect there will be many third party solutions which will be better. But it did answer my question about repacking. (I had hoped Tesla would find some automated way.)

 

[Drax7]

The best and maybe only reason for tesla to buy Rivian is
To avoid a competitor from buying them.

 

[NicoV]

The best and maybe only reason for tesla to buy Rivian is
To avoid a competitor from buying them.

Let’s hope a competitor buys them and keeps pouring in billions. The last thing we want is a competitor with positive margins.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Let’s hope a competitor buys them and keeps pouring in billions. The last thing we want is a competitor with positive margins.

Apple?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Tesla and SpaceX have historically not made large acquisitions and when they do acquire it’s always something specialist they don’t already do.
Buying another automaker would be totally out of tune with “first principles” thinking. Anything they could get from Rivian, they could do better and more efficiently in-house.

If Rivian does go down though the market could certainly use a nice conventional truck like the RIT or R2. The cybertruck is definitely not everyone’s cup of tee.

 

[joh01652]

Tempting at only 2% dilution if they used TSLA stock. But then you inherit a huge cash drain on the business that will probably continue for another year or two.

The problem is the gross margin at RIVN. Fixing this will not be easy as it requires more than just volume scale. Likely total redesigns so Tesla does not really get anything. RJ seems like a good guy but how they got into such a terrible financial situation does not reflect well on him. Tesla always had positive gross margin in the early days when they were making similarity priced vehicles. I just don't understand how they went forward. If you don't have positive gross margin, or something close to it, is very hard to volume scale to get to positive net margins.

Yeah I find a path forward for Rivian hard to fathom at this point (without a never-ending stream of charity money injected from outside donors, that is).
Tesla has been in business a couple decades now, are running at about 2 million vehicles produced/sold per year, and are just now getting down into the upper $3X,XXX price range with survivable profit margins (and that's with the help of tax incentives). Rivian selling a $45,000 vehicle even three years from now at anything close to breakeven just doesn't seem possible, at least from what I've learned over the years following the struggles of Tesla.

 

[Krugerrand]

Starting production at the existing plant is the right move for Rivian. If Tesla can produce 500,000 cars a year in Fremont, they can at least start production of the RS2/3 in Normal. There is plenty of land there and It’s more cost effective.
There is no reason to think they can not attain adequate production levels of the new models there.

At this point, I’m not convinced they could find their way out of a wet paper bag.

 

[Drax7]

Let’s hope a competitor buys them and keeps pouring in billions. The last thing we want is a competitor with positive margins.

A competitor with manufacturing ability would be buying a desirable design and EV
Know how.

 

[mongo]

If Rivian does go down though the market could certainly use a nice conventional truck like the RIT or R2. The cybertruck is definitely not everyone’s cup of tee.

At least with Tesla if you don't like the Cybertruck styling, there are different looking options like an X.
If you don't like Rivian styling (crab headlights for example), you probably won't like any of their vehicles.
Sort of parallels Android (diversity) vs Apple (uniformity).

Which isn't to say S,3,Y,X don't sharea lot of exterior cues and even more interior...

 

[2daMoon]

A competitor with manufacturing ability would be buying a desirable design and EV
Know how.

Which of the competitors has any actual experience or aptitude for whittling down production costs on an EV?

This is the limiting factor on this idea ever actually bearing fruit. Rather than just being an example of kicking the can further down the road.

Though GM does have a history of throwing money at troubled EV manufacturers in partnership agreements, they too have had little in the way of success embracing the brave new world of ICE extinction. But, they lead, and lead is matter... used for making fishing weights, right?