While considering that we should note the numerous effects of unwinding “the wave”. Nearly by definition as volumes rise and the artificial quarter end concentrations decline we also see:
1. Relative rise in seasonality of sales;
2. Reduced COGS from better staffing balance, reduced quarter-end promotions;
3. Reduced shipping costs and logistics management dysfunction.
Without question the other events of the quarter such as Red Sea Houthi impediments, Brandenburg terrorist attack and Chinese New Year all provide opportunity for both FUD and legitimate questions.
Most of us also understand the FUD and regulatory attacks including Delaware Chsncery Court , more SEC investigations, IIHS absurdity in reporting ONLY their view of driver attention devices ignoring all navigation aids while reporting this as total evaluation. Anybody who is aware of the history of that organization understands them to be totally and exclusively serving auto insurance companies whose interests are always unequal to those of consumers.
All of those influences are within historical precedent. What is not so much is the advent of SEC categorization of short-sellers as ‘investors’ which exacerbates the role of market makers and other entities eganged in officially supported manipulation. For context see
@Papafox.
None of these issues are likely to effect alteration for those of us who HODL. For any active retail trader all these things act to increase risk and reduce odds of success.
Netting all of this we have the core reality that TSLA guidance has established that 2024 is a transition year. So, many of us are conditioned to see anything like this as disaster. Some of us expect that better growth will be forthcoming in 2025 and 2026 as geographic and product expansion growth returns. We need not think of FSD or Optimus to understand that, although those may happen.
All we need to do is consider increasing supply of batteries at reduced costs (e.g. 4680 from more thst one source, new 2170 from Panasonic and others), increased revenue from ( e.g.Superchargers, Cybertruck, Semi, various TE products) and even the refreshed Model 3 and Model Y ( better prices and lower costs). Of course there are other factors.
So here we are in panic mode because all is going as expected. Despite awareness we’re somehow pining for massive TSLA price rises as happened from time to time.
Everyone. Should. chill! Securities prices are a roller coaster ride for emotions. Emotional roller coasters are painful companions for anybody. For anybody who saw ‘War Games’ the cardinal rule applies for anyone who is in securities markets and not entitled to be a Market Maker or beneficiary of securities lending. “ the only way to win is not to play the game”.
For the investors among us it’s quite hard to keep perspective. Just do not try to time the market. It’s nearly impossible to resist, but market timing itself is the enemy of long term wealth enhancements.
The foregoing are my opinions, learned during boom and bust multiple times. Clearly some people like Ken Griffin, say, find a way to know better, while others like, say, Warren Buffet has done well my making good judgements and waiting. Still others, like Eon Musk and Jeff Bezos invent better solutions. For most more or less normal people emulating Mr Buffet is possible, but not the other two.
If the previous paragraph makes sense to you; chill! Then obsessively watch to find out if the fundamental have changed. If they have not, keep obsessively watching. If you see the fundamentals changing (e.g. cash flow going negative, dividends beginning, unexplained insiders selling); if then, sell and save what you can.
For me, I watch results and thus far have sold only to buy houses and give money away. Those are to provide different satisfactions, not investment.
