Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Linkmeup]

The cost to launch to space and back to earth for earth-bound cargo is not going to be remotely a thing in the next half decade. Nor the decade after that. Probably not ever unless we develop some entirely new physics for launches. Getting out of a gravity well is crazy expensive by mass.

Starships cargo capacity is 100-150t
A typical sea-going container ship has a capacity of about 220,000 tons.

You'd need at least 1500, possibly as many as 2200, starship missions to move the cargo of ONE container ship.

Cost vs Delivery Time.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Also consider, how between Figure and Tesla, which is better poised to ramp mass production?

Figure has that big back pack. Does not look as ready to go as Optimus.

 

[Mengy]

It didn't affect me so strongly. I can relate to Elon's perspective of "the sooner, the better" for Robotaxi, as far as saving lives, reducing costs, and achieving the mission are concerned.

I'd like to have a Gen3, but the inevitability of the Robotaxi will become all-encompassing once it is deployed. I'm also honest about the fact that the "car owner" is a dying breed represented less and less in later generations following the aging Boomers. (of which I'm one)

Based upon affordability alone, once production ramps to provide adequate availability, there will be a time in the "closer than most think" future where driving your own car will be considered quaint, at best.

They are The Robotaxi, car ownership will be assimilated.

Eventually, yes, but that day is still FAR away. It will take a decade or more before car ownership begins to fade away. That leaves an enormous window for Tesla to profit from selling affordable compact EV's to consumers who want to own one.

The future valuation of Tesla would be even worse than it is right now if they had decided to "skip" an affordable compact EV. Imagine how dead the growth story would be to big investors without the promise of Gen3 coming next year?

 

[Knightshade]

Cost vs Delivery Time.

The minimum fuel cost for a starship launch is gonna be about 1 million dollars. The actual full operating costs are higher.

You'd need to launch 1500 of them, minimum, to equal one cargo ship (which moves stuff at roughly $3 per ton per 1000 miles-- so let's say you want to go 3/4 of the way around the world- that's about $45 per ton, or $6,750 per max-starhip-cargo-weight.


So the cost to move one containership of cargo in an hour or two via starship will exceed 150-220 million dollars.

The cost to move is via container ship, in weeks, would be about 10-15 million.

What cargo, specifically, is worth spending an extra 200 million dollars-- per ship worth- to get there faster?


And again, I'm only billing you for fuel for starship here... actual cost is by most estimates going to be 5-10 times higher, so now you're spending 1-2 billion extra per cargo ship worth.

 

[Linkmeup]

The minimum fuel cost for a starship launch is gonna be about 1 million dollars. The actual full operating costs are higher.

You'd need to launch 1500 of them, minimum, to equal one cargo ship (which moves stuff at roughly $3 per ton per 1000 miles-- so let's say you want to go 3/4 of the way around the world- that's about $45 per ton, or $6,750 per max-starhip-cargo-weight.


So the cost to move one containership of cargo in an hour or two via starship will exceed 150-220 million dollars.

The cost to move is via container ship, in weeks, would be about 10-15 million.

What cargo, specifically, is worth spending an extra 200 million dollars-- per ship worth- to get there faster?

How much faster though? SpaceX is saying San Francisco to Kuala Lumpur is 30 minutes....through Space.

How long would it take for ships? With what level of reliability (especially as Climate Change gets worse planet-side)?

 

[Knightshade]

How much faster though? SpaceX is saying San Francisco to Kuala Lumpur is 30 minutes....through Space.

How long would it take for ships? With what level of reliability?

I literally tell you that in the post. An hour or two to the most remote places (well, probably a BIT longer with loading/fueling) vs weeks.

You still haven't told me what cargo is worth spending an extra 100 million (just in fuel costs) to up to an extra 1-2 billion (in total operating costs) per container ships worth to save that time.


Plus of course you'd still be limited by only going to places with spaceports, since they'll need to refuel and relaunch the thing (and your costs will be 2x if you're not going to a place popular enough to have return cargo)..... so now add the complexity that you need transit capability to move that 100-150T per ship FROM the spaceport to wherever it needs to end up.... a capability that already exists at cargo ship ports.

 

[Tachyon]

Up to 40,000 EVs over 5 years is comical considering India's >1.4 billion population. Tesla sold somewhere 500,000 last year in China (quick googling shows either 603k or 456k). No doubt India consumers have less overall purchasing power, but less than 10% in five years than what's sold in China in one year?

Can't say that "generous" EV import allowance would make any difference to any automaker.

If you consider the math , it makes sense.
An EV priced at 40,000 , would
Have incurred a custom duty of 28,000$ at 70% import tax

With 15% improper tax , that drops to 6000$

A difference of 22,000$ which the govt is forgoing on import duty
For 40,000 cars thats upto 880 million

And which is what the Govt is expecting the manufacturer to invest in production facilities

What the Govt is giving away , it’s expecting to recoup in the form of investment .
Smart move I would say compared to many local governments in USA which bend over backwards in giving away tax rebates for factories that never got built ( ex: Foxconn con job in Wisconsin )

 

[Linkmeup]

I literally tell you that in the post. Hours vs weeks.

You still haven't told me what cargo is worth spending an extra 100 million (just in fuel costs) to up to an extra 1-2 billion (in total operating costs) per container ships worth to save that time.

Why are you arguing while I'm pondering?! You win! You're great at math!

 

[JSML]

I surely hope so.



The raw miles driven by Tesla is in the billions of miles per year. But now I doubt how those miles can actually transfer into an advantage which no other automakers/self-driving companies can match, the advantage perceived and touted by Tesla community. The reason:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1767920313864511795

Chuck's left turn is really not that "edgy": probably one encounter for every 20 to 30 miles urban driving. Chuck himself likely did his left turn hundreds of times alone. For such a not so edge case, Tesla has been collecting data for weeks, according to Chuck's X posts. We've been told that the FSD team is able to pull any video for any cases when needed, which is essential to the perceived advantage of billions of miles driven. The intensive collection of Chuck's left turn seems contradicting to that capability.

Hopefully I'm wrong on this.

With neural net learning by imitation, once the AI learns how to drive Chuck’s left turn in many circumstances, it should be able to do almost all unprotected left turns with a median in the U.S. I liken this to learning a particular skill.

Where the large data set comes into use is edge cases. A vast amount of edge cases and all of them occur rarely. I am sure there are other advantages of a large data set beyond edge cases such as identifying objects and signs. Once compute is no longer constrained real world video can be mined for other uses.

 

[Christine69420]

Don’t forget the ‘hot’ part. I have really adored those all my driving life, beginning with a Lotus Cortina back before most of us were born,

Oh I remember. Prolly dating myself a bit - but the Simca 1100 rally car was hot in my book.

These are weird times - with Gary Black, Kevin sellin and others like @MaxPain getting cold feet.
But it also is familiar. Tesla going forward like a steam locomotive while the media doom and gloom is all that we hear about.

Yes Zach was good calming the bipolar Elon statements at earnings. Vaibhav has yet to find his earnings feet but that will come.
Or perhaps Rohan can participate like he does on X.

I am around @MaxPain 's age but choose to be all in TSLA. And in a couple of months I come into some cash. Thank you dear cushion... if we continue to be hammered I will end up with more TSLA. Not less. But each have to do what is best for their particular situation.

Approaching Motorhome heaven age I really like the idea of Giga Berlin making Semi trucks. So not advice but I still

HoDL

 

[scaesare]

Tesla’s test-running this left turn far predates the current saga. Chuck was doing this turn and posting it on YouTube for a long, long time with little appreciable progress until Tesla first sent people there to specifically work on it and that’s when the creep barrier appeared, the car learned how to stop in the median, etc. Would need to go back and look to be sure, but Chuck first spotted test vehicles there probably like 2 years ago now.

All this mass video collection, AI training and autolabelling, but boots on the ground is what made things happen and seemingly boots on the ground are still necessary to make things happen.

Yup.

The other thing is that, in order to tune the simulation, as well as the training model, it may be helpful to control the driver inputs in an example scenario. For example, where they position the car in the lane, what happens if they creep over the line, the reaction of other drivers to how they position the car in the median, etc...

Gathering end-user driving data doesn't do that. Boots on the ground does.

 

[scaesare]

The minimum fuel cost for a starship launch is gonna be about 1 million dollars. The actual full operating costs are higher.

You'd need to launch 1500 of them, minimum, to equal one cargo ship (which moves stuff at roughly $3 per ton per 1000 miles-- so let's say you want to go 3/4 of the way around the world- that's about $45 per ton, or $6,750 per max-starhip-cargo-weight.


So the cost to move one containership of cargo in an hour or two via starship will exceed 150-220 million dollars.

The cost to move is via container ship, in weeks, would be about 10-15 million.

What cargo, specifically, is worth spending an extra 200 million dollars-- per ship worth- to get there faster?

The desired cargo size doesn't have to be a container ship. 200 tons is a pretty good size, and not sure there are many other options for 90 minute delivery?

Overnight Fedex can easily be 10X+ ground shipping... why can't this?

 

[Tachyon]

Mercedes-Benz India zips past ₹10,000-crore revenue mark in FY23

The robust financial performance came even as volumes have still to reach the peak of the pre-Covid year of FY19. In FY23, the local arm of the German luxury carmaker sold 16,497 vehicles, a 38% increase from the previous year, but lower than the 18,211 vehicles sold in FY19, according to the...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Hyundai Motor India net profit jumps 62.3% to Rs 4,709.25 crore in FY23

The company, which is the second largest passenger vehicles manufacturer in India, had posted a consolidated net profit of Rs 2,901.59 crore in 2021-22.

www.moneycontrol.com

BMW Group India profits triple, revenue grows 40% to Rs 6,107 crore in FY23 | Autocar Professional

BMW Group India profits triple, revenue grows 40% to Rs 6,107 crore in FY23

www.autocarpro.in

That's 3. Those were the first 3 I searched.

You have no idea about how much buying power Indian public has . On a recent trip to India , saw scores of EVS from local made Tata Nexon to Porsche Taycan, BYD, Hyundai EV6 , MG etc etc .
Give another 3 yrs and Indias GDP is expected to double . Unbelievable

 

[Knightshade]

The desired cargo size doesn't have to be a container ship. 200 tons is a pretty good size, and not sure there are many other options for 90 minute delivery?

Overnight Fedex can easily be 10X+ ground shipping... why can't this?

because it's going to be 1 million dollars just in fuel, and likely 5-10 million in total costs for ONE shipment this way.

BTW, the available cargo room is comparable to a 747. Yes that flight might take 10-12 hours instead of 1 hour-- but the cost will be massively less- like many millions of dollars less.

What cargo is worth spending many millions of dollars (PER shipment) to get it there in 1 hour instead of 10-12? Other than lifesaving medicine (which you don't generally need to ship 150 tons of at a time) I can't think of a single thing.

Plus the 747 can go anywhere in the world there's a decent sized airport. Starship will only be able to go places there's an actual rocket base (so it can refuel and leave again later).


Starship will be incredibly useful and valuable for things outside our atmosphere. The idea it'll "revolutionize cargo shipping on earth" is just economically and mathematically nonsensical.

 

[GOVA]

So with 240 sharships a day from let's say 10 locations, we can transport quite a lot of junk anywhere in our Solar System. Check.
Kind of like cargo planes today. Check.

I like it.

 

[mongo]

What cargo is worth spending many millions of dollars (PER shipment) to get it there in 1 hour instead of 10-12? Other than lifesaving medicine (which you don't generally need to ship 150 tons of at a time) I can't think of a single thing.

You've obviously never been on the wrong end of a automotive manufacturing plant shutdown...
$1.3 million up to $3 million per hour in 2006
The $22,000-Per-Minute Manufacturing Problem

 

[Linkmeup]

because it's going to be 1 million dollars just in fuel, and likely 5-10 million in total costs for ONE shipment this way.

BTW, the available cargo room is comparable to a 747. Yes that flight might take 10-12 hours instead of 1 hour-- but the cost will be massively less- like many millions of dollars less.

What cargo is worth spending many millions of dollars (PER shipment) to get it there in 1 hour instead of 10-12? Other than lifesaving medicine (which you don't generally need to ship 150 tons of at a time) I can't think of a single thing.

Plus the 747 can go anywhere in the world there's a decent sized airport. Starship will only be able to go places there's an actual rocket base (so it can refuel and leave again later).


Starship will be incredibly useful and valuable for things outside our atmosphere. The idea it'll "revolutionize cargo shipping on earth" is just economically and mathematically nonsensical.

People and organs (from people or non-organic means) come to mind. Anything that is priceless and where delivery time matters magnitudes of order greater than cost (which are things that can be commoditized).

Lung transplants, in particular, are done at 2-3 sites nationwide in the US. Most have to uproot their entire lives at an older age / while living with a disability...alongside their caregiver(s). Further, people with terminal illness wait 6 months - 2 years, after an extensive waitlist that is uncertain whether they'll even have to go through the transplant. A worldwide delivery time of 30 minutes would probably increase the throughput of transplant procedures, as an example.

Edit: Here's some info - National data - OPTN

 

[Knightshade]

People and organs (from people or non-organic means) come to mind. Anything that is priceless and where delivery time matters magnitudes of order greater than cost (which are things that can be commoditized).

Lung transplants, in particular, are done at 2-3 sites nationwide in the US. Most have to uproot their entire lives at an older age / while living with a disability...alongside their caregiver(s). Further, people with terminal illness wait 6 months - 2 years, after an extensive waitlist that is uncertain whether they'll even have to go through the transplant. A worldwide delivery time of 30 minutes would probably increase the throughput of transplant procedures, as an example.

transit time might be 30 minutes-- but delivery time would not. You'd need to get an organ from the hospital where it's harvested to a starbase-- and there'd be time to fuel and prep the launch, then once it lands at another starbase, however long via local transit to a hospital.

I'd be exceedingly surprised if this was actually faster than just using an airplane between any 2 hospitals in the US.... but it'd certainly cost millions of dollars more than a plane ticket each time.

And only be available to hospitals ALSO near starbases.

Also I'm not sure "organ transport at the cost of millions of dollars per organ" is a sustainable business model for a rocket company.

You've obviously never been on the wrong end of a automotive manufacturing plant shutdown...
$1.3 million up to $3 million per hour in 2006
The $22,000-Per-Minute Manufacturing Problem

Uh... did you read your own story?

It's mostly about lack of skilled labor to keep things working reliably.... Or lack of parts availability--- Mentioning that when they do break it can then take days to get a person there competent enough to fix it or the right parts there.

Airplanes exist- the fact it takes "days" isn't a "transport isn't fast enough" problem it's a shortage of the thing you need being available TO transport that day at all.

Starship doesn't fix that.

 

[2daMoon]

Eventually, yes, but that day is still FAR away. It will take a decade or more before car ownership begins to fade away. That leaves an enormous window for Tesla to profit from selling affordable compact EV's to consumers who want to own one.

The future valuation of Tesla would be even worse than it is right now if they had decided to "skip" an affordable compact EV. Imagine how dead the growth story would be to big investors without the promise of Gen3 coming next year?

I think that the desire for car ownership began to fade some years ago.

The latest generations often get well into their 20's before reluctantly considering getting a Driver License. Even then, many of them have no intention of buying a car, they just did it as their boss wanted them to be able to rent when traveling, and/or, they wanted to be an alternate driver of a friend or family member's car.

This already existing trend will be amplified by the advent of autonomy and Robotaxi. Much like the trend has been boosted by availability of services like Uber and Lyft already. These companies rise to success is a testament to the desire of many people to avoid having to drive themselves.

Driving, to greater and greater extent, is seen as a hazardous chore that a growing number of people prefer to delegate to others.

The number of us motor-heads remaining who hold pride in the skills we have honed to a fine art become fewer and fewer each year. There are an exponentially growing number of people honing their texting skilz that put little interest in improving their driving who will jump at the chance to avoid driving altogether.

The tipping point has already passed, rather than being far away. The market for autonomy and Robotaxi, much like the cat who ate the cheese, is waiting with bated (baited) breath for the driverless opportunity to fully manifest.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

because it's going to be 1 million dollars just in fuel, and likely 5-10 million in total costs for ONE shipment this way.

BTW, the available cargo room is comparable to a 747. Yes that flight might take 10-12 hours instead of 1 hour-- but the cost will be massively less- like many millions of dollars less.

What cargo is worth spending many millions of dollars (PER shipment) to get it there in 1 hour instead of 10-12? Other than lifesaving medicine (which you don't generally need to ship 150 tons of at a time) I can't think of a single thing.

Plus the 747 can go anywhere in the world there's a decent sized airport. Starship will only be able to go places there's an actual rocket base (so it can refuel and leave again later).


Starship will be incredibly useful and valuable for things outside our atmosphere. The idea it'll "revolutionize cargo shipping on earth" is just economically and mathematically nonsensical.

I think war is where this works. The DoD already champing at the bit for a supply of Starships. Let us go destabilise another part of the globe. Money no object in the forever wars.