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I disagreed because this is a quite oversimplified and one-dimensional view.

Toyota had huge success with Lexus, introduced in the US and developed for the US primarily, launched in ~1987 almost instantly being best selling luxury vehicle in US, the going global. That followed the introduction of Camry, also designed for the center of the US sedan market.

Toyota through the 1970's and1980's grow rapidly in many global markets with a plethora of models.
As fro the Prius, it was not the product fo desperation but an exploration for the future, built in part from the ashes of the RAV4 EV California compliance car powered famously by Tesla and contributing to the Fremont factory. That was largely the product of the failure of the Joint venture with GM, rather than inherent Toyota problems.

From our perspective, conditioned by facts and, factually, bias, to see BEV as THE solution, back in the later 1990's that was definitely not a sure thing. Toyota has devoted itself to Deming's-style continuous improvement, as is copiously documented as "he Toyota Way". What hindsight tells us, especially those of us so enamored with Deming, is that such an approach fails miserably when technological change reorders objective reality. That, rather than short term market weakness in Japan dissuaded Toyota from greater innovation building on their initial lead.

In my opinion, versions of that drive for Demings-style continuous improvement, has inhibited the entire established auto industry, including Toyota. Further all of them, whether Japanese, Korean, German or US, have suffered from their explicit attempts to mimic the Toyota Way, itself heavily driven by relentless outsourcing. In short, the success pattern fo the 1980's proved the root cause of 2020's lagging innovation. Demings did not anticipate fundamental technological change.

I did not mention Stellantis and predecessors/components because they have more in common with things like 1960's German consolidation (e.g. NSU, Borgward, etc) and, horror!, British Motors Corporation.

Anybody can choose to disagree with this assessment but... it took an Elon Musk to start from his famous "First Principles" to revolutionize Space Flight and automotive technology. It really is bizarre that the pace of innovation speeds almost exponentially by completely discarding the Demings-style continuous improvement. Factually incrementalism is the enemy of progress.

As a onetime deep devotee of Deming's and as a consultant and executive I pushed to adopt mimics of 'The Toyota Way' to the extent of succeeding in fomenting both mergers and merger integration following those principles. I was WRONG!

The weakness of Toyota is dependent commitment to incrementalism. When incrementalism begins to fade, the impulse is to jump to 'the next big thing' such as hydrogen. The problem is that trained incrementalists really do not see the difference between fundamental principles and continuous improvement. That makes things such as Hydrogen seems like a good idea if one has never heard of the Bohr radius. Strangely there are many, many engineers who think they can beat that problem. Even Toyota.
That is the problem of incrementalism.

Bluntly, all that has little or nothing to do with Japanese auto market share.
I nominate this post as a Post of Particular Merit.

It offers a key insight into innovation or lack thereof in large businesses. A topic that should be of interest to any Tesla investor.

Thank you @unk45
 
In 2016 I bought a Model S. HW1 Autopilot made long road trips much less fatiguing. Today I can’t image doing without Autopilot on highways.

FSD has made in town driving more stressful, since you have to not only watch the other idiot drivers, but also watch what idiot moves your own car might make. However it seems to me that FSD is close to a flipping point where it will be less stressful to use than driving yourself, and safer. The driver will still have to monitor, but not intervene constantly. So just like Autopilot on the highway.

IMO, once FSD is at the level to make driving less stressful, and safer, then there will be more demand for monthly subscriptions. Tesla may need to adjust pricing to maximize revenue, but I do expect more FSD revenue in 2024, which will flow directly to the bottom line.

GSP
FSD profitability seems to me to be in the following stages:

1. Improved take rate on the existing fleet and new sales. This could be this year, but the question is would the numbers be material to the overall profits? Right now, $15K has always struck me as outside the proper pricing window, its not that FSD for life of a car might not be worth that much, its that a number that is at least four figures rather than five is much easier to simply click on "add feature" given the overall price of the cars. Certainly for the next couple of years, even if FSD fully works, I can see many people not buying it at $15k just due to the price.

2. Even though Tesla is set up to sell the FSD system to any other manufacturer, I don't see any other cars designed to accept the system. If it really takes an OEM 5 years to develop a new model it almost seems that it would be like 2030 before Tesla could sell the system. Maybe sooner in the case of expensive models (Rolls Royce, Bentley) But its really that FSD needs a centralized computer system and I don't see other cars that even are designed that way.

3. Robo taxis, run by Telsa, could be profitable, but there is, after all, the operating costs of the car and, for the first few years of the system, human supervisors. But its the same cars (Model 2s) that Tesla is going all out to build as it is.

Astonishingly, I think this means that some of us will have full, non-insider knowledge of the most profitable driving system ever created, and completely counter intuitively, will have several years to buy shares that do not have said system priced in.

On Second thought, maybe it is not that odd. People, many people, knew all about personal computers well before they were a standard, but at least the question there was whether they would actually be adopted by the general public. There is no question that if you can buy a car which can drive itself you will buy that car.
 
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Where does this Model 3 ramp-up at Fremont difficulties mantra come from? This person is the only one I have seen stating this.



From actual VIN registration data showing a surprisingly low # of 3s coming out of Fremont so far.

You can also just read any of the Model 3 delivery threads on this forum to see the same info (but person by person anecdotes instead of Troys correlated data)

Folks who ordered 2+ months ago only now getting a VIN, other folks who ordered after that getting delivery dates pushed out as late as May...plus quite a lot of folks mad they might miss out on FSD transfer and other offers due to how unlikely a 3/31 delivery is looking even having ordered way in advance, etc...

Fremont hosed up the S/X refresh pretty badly, hopefully the 3 one won't be AS bad.
 
Kicking the tires worked, albeit slowly. 12.3 FSD on our Y good to go.

What worked? Who knows, but I stopped watching the TSLA ticker for a day as well to knock a few items off the todo list.

And low and behold, I also received the E-Mail invite for the Foundation Cybertruck!

So here I sit with a major dilemma; The SP is too low to sell at this point to fund the truck, not to mention I don't want the Foundation series, but it's so tempting... Loan out of the question for several reasons.

So a request for those gathered here: Please stop watching the SP for a day or two, okay? It just might work, and I don't want to kick my computer to see what happens to the SP.
 
Is that data accurate?

I've always read/heard the F series has gotten closer to a million units per year. This article says F-series was 750k in 2023.


Another data point over a decade (typically sells about ~800k):

If you can't charge at home (renters), buying an EV is a non-starter. Charging at superchargers also isn't that cheap and that's still time out of your day.

Folks I know without EVs think charging is too long, don't want to learn something new, used to old gas weekly routine and accept it.
Agreed. At first I thought the numbers were low because they were US only, but that still seems low.

Regardless of the exact numbers, Toyota and Honda still sell a LOT of RAV4s and CRVs respectively. I don’t know their average selling price, but I have to think a fair number of them sell at prices comparable to the Model Y and more in some cases. If that’s true, Model Y’s market share has a lot of room to grow, but changing one’s brand loyalty isn’t easy. Education and facts are key.

A friend of mine is currently in the market for a car for his daughter. I told him Tesla makes the safest cars on the road, why would you buy anything else? Why would anyone buy anything else?
 
If I'm not mistaken Munro guys said it was sub $1k,and that was crazy that Tesla put that much in a car even for those that not pay, that other OEMs would be dreaming it they could cut $1k out of a vehicle by just removing a few parts if a customers doesnt pay extra for it

And that in the end, it shows how much value Tesla puts into safety, since it's the same system that does all the active safety systems and also the value of the data that system generates
Tesla believes they will make a lot more than $1k per car once everyone discovers the joy of a car that drives itself. They will pay monthly for FSD. At least that has been Tesla's plan.

And of course, Tesla needs that hardware in all the fleet to help develop FSD in the first place.

So it's definitely not just about safety. There is also a long term profit motive.
 
This article shows the importance of Tesla's Model 2 or whatever it will be called. While BYD's finances are murky, they are growing with the help of the Chinese government. Tesla pulls off the Model 2 at the right price point, it will need all the excess production capability in Belin, Shanghai, Austin and soon to be built Mexico.


Keep in mind they have been building the production line in Texas for well over a year now. It is entirely possible they might beat their 2025 delivery estimation. I suspect they have room inside GigaTexas for multiple Unboxed lines to be set up once they are happy with the prototype. GigaTexas could become an exporter while the others are coming online.

Whatever they have already decided upon with certainty at the Texas production line can be built into Berlin now, certainly, they have room for it.

Shanghai? Maybe could add an Unboxed line or two without further expansion, maybe not.

Mexico will have to build the factory first, and it may be that fleshing out the NextGen production line in Texas is holding up ground breaking in hopes of avoiding having to rip up concrete inside the building after the fact. This way they can, as much as is practical, build it right the first time.

Time will tell, but I think this is going to be bigger than what those not paying attention realize.
 
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Just used v12 and can confirm it has solved a bunch of issues overnight. The car can finally go slowly toward my gate and triggers the auto open. For the first time I had a zero intervention/disengagement ride to a nearby target where before I had to disengage at my gate everytime. It also solved this left turn onto traffic lane without misjudging approaching cars.
 
Ugh. All the FB ford and Rivian groups are bubbling today about their ability to charge at superchargers now. And how they’ll never have to even think about buying a tesla again. Ugh. Hope this doesn’t come back to snap tesla in the Assets.

Just sayin. 😱
My neighbour has been able to charge his MachE at the local supercharger since he bought it a couple of years ago, but then it has recently disappeared and a shiny model 3 appeared ! Well I never. Wonder if all that exposure to the Tesla ecosystem made any difference ?
 
Keep in mind they have been building the production line in Texas for well over a year now. It is entirely possible they might beat their 2025 delivery estimation. I suspect they have room inside GigaTexas for multiple Unboxed lines to be set up once they are happy with the prototype. GigaTexas could become an exporter while the others are coming online.

Whatever they have already decided upon with certainty at the Texas production line can be built into Berlin now, certainly, they have room for it.

Shanghai? Maybe could add an Unboxed line or two without further expansion, maybe not.

Mexico will have to build the factory first, and it may be that fleshing out the NextGen production line in Texas is holding up ground breaking in hopes of avoiding having to rip up concrete inside the building after the fact. This way they can, as much as is practical, build it right the first time.

Time will tell, but I think this is going to be bigger than what those not paying attention realize.
They are keeping tight as Joe hasn't spotted any prototypes as far as I can tell.
 
Agreed. At first I thought the numbers were low because they were US only, but that still seems low.

Regardless of the exact numbers, Toyota and Honda still sell a LOT of RAV4s and CRVs respectively. I don’t know their average selling price, but I have to think a fair number of them sell at prices comparable to the Model Y and more in some cases. If that’s true, Model Y’s market share has a lot of room to grow, but changing one’s brand loyalty isn’t easy. Education and facts are key.

A friend of mine is currently in the market for a car for his daughter. I told him Tesla makes the safest cars on the road, why would you buy anything else? Why would anyone buy anything else?

I think it's just too common for people put themselves in the equation and don't understand other people's use case. If you still can't charge at home because of rent/college student, an EV is not what I would recommend.

As stated, renters for one, college kids I feel who can say, go from Bay Area to LA with no fill up at all, go from LA to Las Vegas, no charge, fill up till there, they get gas once a month maybe if even that are fine with a gas car.

Look at the range of the CR-V here (random site I found, 476 highway, 600+ city):

Just because an EV is for me doesn't mean it's for everyone else and there are so many reasons to not get an EV. I would assume Rav4s and CRVs are decently safe enough (minus the random haters who would vandalize your car because it's a Tesla too).
 
Tesla at the moment is worth more than Toyota, Ford, and GM combined. In terms of comparisons with car manufacturers, that seems not so bad.

The stock price was also $60 lower just over a year ago
Makes sense, Tesla makes 3-4 times as much per vehicle compared to these manufacturers, and they are going to at least triple their revenue in the next 3-4 years (Cybertruck, Semi, Model 2, Megapacks, FSD, etc etc). Even after the price cuts, net profit per Tesla vehicle is equivalent to the first half of 2021. Thanks to Powell rate cuts and FSD v12.3, I think we are about to see these gross and net profit trends reverse if not the second half of 2024, then indubitably first half of 2025.
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