Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

I'm impressed with how close the Model Y was to the Ford F-series in 2023. And I'm also wondering if Model Y can continue its momentum in 2024. Big question.

If the Cybertruck Osbournes the F150. Bingo.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

Similar to how it's difficult to wire a speaker system into the electrical architecture? It's not rocket science, these auto engineers don't have to be SpaceX worthy.

Musk sent them the how to build a 48V car manual after all.

 

[GOVA]

I think it's just too common for people put themselves in the equation and don't understand other people's use case. If you still can't charge at home because of rent/college student, an EV is not what I would recommend.

As stated, renters for one, college kids I feel who can say, go from Bay Area to LA with no fill up at all, go from LA to Las Vegas, no charge, fill up till there, they get gas once a month maybe if even that are fine with a gas car.

Look at the range of the CR-V here (random site I found, 476 highway, 600+ city):

https://www.quantrellforlife.com/honda-cr-v-gas-mileage/#:~:text=Certain%202024%20Honda%20CR%2DV,its%20larger%2015.3%2Dgallon%20tank.

Just because an EV is for me doesn't mean it's for everyone else and there are so many reasons to not get an EV. I would assume Rav4s and CRVs are decently safe enough (minus the random haters who would vandalize your car because it's a Tesla too).

Majority you are.

Say - which part of poison don't you get?

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

Production and deliveries;-




Inventory grew slightly during Q3 / Q4 2022, but there was a phase called "unwinding the wave" which was in progress during that time.

When production is ramping, some lag in deliveries is also fairly natural.

We don't know if lower prices would have resulted in significantly more deliveries.

We also need to consider the timing of interest rate increases.





It is fair to say that a lot of the big interest rate increases happened before Jan 2023, whether or not there was some lag in those increases impacting on orders is hard to say.

IMO the data that Troy sees is a subset of what Tesla sees, and that is considerably delayed... With new cars coming constantly off the line, and with fairly substantial shipping delays Tesla can't afford a build up of unallocated inventory... They also can afford a mismatch between production and demand in particular markets the most obvious example of that is production for RHD markets,,,

And it also takes tome time to work though the backlog of existing orders...

So they might see a drop off in new orders while 2-3 months worth of existing orders at earlier prices are working their way though the system

I am not sure if Troy has data for Canada or RHD countries, or how important those markets are. .

No, this overlay tells you. Tesla price cut in Jan 2023 was way behind price declines seen in used market, where on the way up in 2022 we see Tesla raising prices before used car market goes up (but highly correlated). As you would expect because Tesla has the info.

Tesla knew orders were plummeting in the Fall of 2022. @Troy knew. They just had some backlog that masked it.

The proper thing to do, as you alleged, would have been gradual price cuts in the fall. But they flat out didn't.

So the claim Tesla adjusts prices in quasi real-time is not always correct.

 

[Singuy]

I don't know what Tesla's cost for all the FSD hardware is... I suspect the cameras are relatively inexpensive... the custom FSD silicon is no doubt the big-ticket item. But I would be willing to bet the whole package is significantly less than $6K.

That piece of silicon on 14nm and now 12nm cost peanuts. It's not even a big piece of chip as power draw requirements really limit what Tesla are willing to put into the system.

Seriously the entire board I am guessing cost less than 100 dollars. They can fit around 200 chips onto a 300m wafer and each wafer cost 4k. So the actual chip is around 20 dollars x 2, and then you add the PCB/packaging/memory cost on top which are all not very expensive. This inference board is not using top of the line cutting edge node. D1 chip on the other hand cost substantially more.

I am guessing the entire FSD hardware package cost about 500 or less and this includes the cost of installation. It has to be cheap enough to not be a major drag on gross margin when currently over 90% of the customers are not paying anything more for the hardware.

 

[Musskiah]

I hear V12.69 is going to be where FSD starts making YouTube videos where it points out any time a human makes the wrong decision.

 

[jschwefel]

I think it's just too common for people put themselves in the equation and don't understand other people's use case. If you still can't charge at home because of rent/college student, an EV is not what I would recommend.

As stated, renters for one, college kids I feel who can say, go from Bay Area to LA with no fill up at all, go from LA to Las Vegas, no charge, fill up till there, they get gas once a month maybe if even that are fine with a gas car.

Look at the range of the CR-V here (random site I found, 476 highway, 600+ city):

https://www.quantrellforlife.com/honda-cr-v-gas-mileage/#:~:text=Certain%202024%20Honda%20CR%2DV,its%20larger%2015.3%2Dgallon%20tank.

Just because an EV is for me doesn't mean it's for everyone else and there are so many reasons to not get an EV. I would assume Rav4s and CRVs are decently safe enough (minus the random haters who would vandalize your car because it's a Tesla too).

IDK, but based on my experience the people with range anxiety or those who say EVs “aren’t for them” have never tried an EV. They’ve either been misinformed by the media or they haven’t bothered to research it themselves. Seriously…the only people I know who have range anxiety are those who don’t drive an electric car.

I've been driving electric since 2016; I’ve logged close to 200k miles across four Teslas during that time and I’ve never ran out of juice. In fact, I struggle more with fueling the diesel truck I use for towing our camper, than I do driving our Model Y across country. Gas stations and truck stops are generally sketchy places, although I do find myself seeking out Buc-ees when I travel.

Anyway, there are some use cases today where fossil-fueled transportation is necessary, but I think those are very few. Yes, one will stop more when traveling long distance in an electric car, but for the majority of people, long distance travel is a small percentage of their overall use case and the other benefits/pluses far outweigh that one negative.

Over the years I’ve had dozens of friends switch to electric, perhaps some due to my enthusiasm, and none of them have regretted it. Some have ditched their gas cars completely because electric is just so much better. I think there’s still a lot of people who just need to try it, instead of making up excuses as to why it’s not for them. Just my two cents.

 

[MountainRatMat]

My neighbour has been able to charge his MachE at the local supercharger since he bought it a couple of years ago, but then it has recently disappeared and a shiny model 3 appeared ! Well I never. Wonder if all that exposure to the Tesla ecosystem made any difference ?

I had a co-worker looking to buy an EV, asked me about a Mach-E vs. Tesla. I recommended they Turo each of them and then decide. After the Mach-E Turo they decided on a Model Y that gets delivered tomorrow.

I agree that the opening of the supercharger network will be a great promotion for the Tesla brand...and Tesla can even make some money off of it. Their advertising budget is effectively negative now.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

IDK, but based on my experience the people with range anxiety or those who say EVs “aren’t for them” have never tried an EV. They’ve either been misinformed by the media or they haven’t bothered to research it themselves. Seriously…the only people I know who have range anxiety are those who don’t drive an electric car.

I've been driving electric since 2016; I’ve logged close to 200k miles across four Teslas during that time and I’ve never ran out of juice. In fact, I struggle more with fueling the diesel truck I use for towing our camper, than I do driving our Model Y across country. Gas stations and truck stops are generally sketchy places, although I do find myself seeking out Buc-ees when I travel.

Anyway, there are some use cases today where fossil-fueled transportation is necessary, but I think those are very few. Yes, one will stop more when traveling long distance in an electric car, but for the majority of people, long distance travel is a small percentage of their overall use case and the other benefits/pluses far outweigh that one negative.

Over the years I’ve had dozens of friends switch to electric, perhaps some due to my enthusiasm, and none of them have regretted it. Some have ditched their gas cars completely because electric is just so much better. I think there’s still a lot of people who just need to try it, instead of making up excuses as to why it’s not for them. Just my two cents.

If you can't conveniently plug in while you work or sleep owning an EV would be a pain in the ass. I drive to San Diego from Portland once a year and the charging stops are no problem. Once I'm in San Diego and can't charge overnight, it gets a little annoying. I don't recommend EVs to apartment dwellers.

 

[Skryll]

If you can't conveniently plug in while you work or sleep owning an EV would be a pain in the ass. I drive to San Diego from Portland once a year and the charging stops are no problem. Once I'm in San Diego and can't charge overnight, it gets a little annoying. I don't recommend EVs to apartment dwellers.

I disagree. Sure it makes a big difference if you don't have to think about the next charge, but if there is a supercharger where you shop and dine then that's already a superior experience compared to hanging around at gas stations, also no oil change and smog checks and all the other advantages hands down I would drive my model3 if I was not able to charge at home of work.

 

[bpjod]

IDK, but based on my experience the people with range anxiety or those who say EVs “aren’t for them” have never tried an EV. They’ve either been misinformed by the media or they haven’t bothered to research it themselves. Seriously…the only people I know who have range anxiety are those who don’t drive an electric car.

I've been driving electric since 2016; I’ve logged close to 200k miles across four Teslas during that time and I’ve never ran out of juice. In fact, I struggle more with fueling the diesel truck I use for towing our camper, than I do driving our Model Y across country.

So then why do you still use a diesel truck for towing? Range anxiety?
Before you reply, be sure to check my avatar...

 

[sunwarriors]

IDK, but based on my experience the people with range anxiety or those who say EVs “aren’t for them” have never tried an EV. They’ve either been misinformed by the media or they haven’t bothered to research it themselves. Seriously…the only people I know who have range anxiety are those who don’t drive an electric car.

I've been driving electric since 2016; I’ve logged close to 200k miles across four Teslas during that time and I’ve never ran out of juice. In fact, I struggle more with fueling the diesel truck I use for towing our camper, than I do driving our Model Y across country. Gas stations and truck stops are generally sketchy places, although I do find myself seeking out Buc-ees when I travel.

Anyway, there are some use cases today where fossil-fueled transportation is necessary, but I think those are very few. Yes, one will stop more when traveling long distance in an electric car, but for the majority of people, long distance travel is a small percentage of their overall use case and the other benefits/pluses far outweigh that one negative.

Over the years I’ve had dozens of friends switch to electric, perhaps some due to my enthusiasm, and none of them have regretted it. Some have ditched their gas cars completely because electric is just so much better. I think there’s still a lot of people who just need to try it, instead of making up excuses as to why it’s not for them. Just my two cents.

You don't have to convince me as I own electric too, but still, the renter who can't charge is the #1 person I think who may not want the hassle/headache of charging at all. You say gas stations are sketchy places, charging locations can be too (with far limited services a lot of times) so if a young girl had to sit there for 20 - 30 minutes regularly just to charge, I personally wouldn't suggest it.

If they want to supercharge regularly and they can fit it in, that will work, but someone here saying they don't understand why anyone would get gas just means folks aren't getting into other people's situation.

I assume every homeowner who can charge at home (even L1 slowly) should get an EV, but not everyone is a homeowner neither.

 

[dhrivnak]

So then why do you still use a diesel truck for towing? Range anxiety?
Before you reply, be sure to check my avatar...

For me towing is the weak link with Tesla especially with their back in charging. 250 miles of interstate range drops to 125 when towing. Then you need to often unhitch to charge. So any tow over 100 miles we elect to take the RAV4 Prime. Just a log easier on a long trip especially if you camp in National Parks and National Forest with no electricity.

 

[geometro]

View attachment 1029608
Serious question…why are people still buying Rav4s and CRVs?

I’m happy to see the Model Y near the top, but I’m surprised the gap isn’t wider against the small SUVs. Safety, driving experience, total cost of ownership,…should widen the gap. If people only knew.

Folks that rent and don’t have convenient access to home charging is one reason.

 

[Huskyf]

Two errors today with Tesla china numbers of sales
This morning they said 12k bad because last week 12.5k
This afternoon they said 12.3k
This evening they said final is 12.6k that’s more of last week ??????

 

[jschwefel]

So then why do you still use a diesel truck for towing? Range anxiety?
Before you reply, be sure to check my avatar...

Ha ha. Yes, towing a 25’ travel trailer is one of those use cases. I bought the diesel truck new in 2021 for that specific purpose, and it literally is like driving a dinosaur, even compared to my first Tesla, a 2012 Model S P85.

BTW, I’m currently waiting on a delivery date for the Cybertruck. I intend to ditch the diesel truck soon thereafter. Sure, I won’t be able to go 300 miles between stops, and I’ll need to make some changes with my camper charging setup, but I’m okay with that. The pros of driving electric, and more specifically Tesla, far outweigh those little inconveniences.

 

[Krugerrand]

Two errors today with Tesla china numbers of sales
This morning they said 12k bad because last week 12.5k
This afternoon they said 12.3k
This evening they said final is 12.6k that’s more of last week ??????

Who is they? Clearly not an ‘official’ but rather some guy guessing on The Internet?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Who is they? Clearly not an ‘official’ but rather some guy guessing on The Internet?

They = "People who are betting on $TSLA stock so they release data to confuse the weak hands"

 

[MC3OZ]

No, this overlay tells you. Tesla price cut in Jan 2023 was way behind price declines seen in used market, where on the way up in 2022 we see Tesla raising prices before used car market goes up (but highly correlated). As you would expect because Tesla has the info.

Tesla knew orders were plummeting in the Fall of 2022. @Troy knew. They just had some backlog that masked it.

The proper thing to do, as you alleged, would have been gradual price cuts in the fall. But they flat out didn't.

So the claim Tesla adjusts prices in quasi real-time is not always correct.

Tesla was able to grow deliveries in 2022 and 2023, there was no obvious build up of inventory beyond an acceptable amount for "unwinding the wave".

So why cut prices before you need to?

Tesla are managing the business not the share price, delayed larger cuts attracted attention, and were in effect free advertising...

There is no real evidence that cutting prices early would have resulted in more revenue and profit over the 2022/2023.

When we consider why prices were high prior to the cuts, why inflation was high and why interest rate increases were necessary a lot of that was due to supply chian crunches with demand tending to exceed supply for raw materials.

The interest lever is a blunt instrument, and there is a lag in it taking effect. But it is substantially quicker than building new mines and new container ships. Commodities like Lithium always follow boom and busy price cycles often that is because additional supply always arrives after inflation has reduced demand.

The additional reason to delay price cuts is there higher parts and materials costs don't turn on a dime the minute interest rates are increased, there is a lag as the blunt instrument goes to work in a very blunt way. Any inventory an WIP carries the higher costs from earlier times.

The when we look at when car prices decreases occurred, Tesla was certainly amongst the first to drop prices in a significant way and certainly received the most attention. Many legacy EV automakers were initially reluctant to match price cuts, then pivoted away from EVs to hybrids in what was IMO an essential survival strategy. They will be back with better and cheaper EVs in 1-2 years, but in the meantime Tesla isn't standing still. Short term a bit less competition in a tough macro market isn't a bad thing.

What impact are those higher interest rates having? I suggest popping into your local Stellantis dealer and asking them how business is going.

 

[Thekiwi]

Marcus Brownlee (the largest YouTube tech reviewer, that Tesla trusted with the initial cybertruck release) has released his first “living with” review of the cybertruck after a couple of weeks of using a dual motor founders edition that was lent to him.

A mostly positive review one could say, mostly raving about the vehicle tech, design & driving experience, but let down by some early build issues (the door gap is horrendous, no hub caps, no autopilot/FSD) and disappointing range.

This review was done on his auto focus channel, another review to come on his main channel which has a much bigger following, where he will be reviewing his own tri-motor cyberbeast.