Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

It's always weird to me just how different Tesla service is from place to place, given unlike independent dealers they should all in theory be owned by the same company and all follow the same policies.

For example usually Tesla doesn't do air filters free but they are for you for some reason....(they charged me about $70 total parts and labor, and still under the 4/50 warranty while you're well past it). and the trunk harness seems to be a coin flip on if they'll do it mobile or make you come into a service center.

I've got an appointment in a couple weeks for the trunk harness.... they're making me come to the service center (and likely making me sit there and wait)-- despite the fact obviously they do this via ranger elsewhere... and I've had other services done in this area via ranger so it's not like they don't have rangers here.







This is making a really weird leap here--- they're assuming that 1 person in 100 who is paying close attention to FSD progress wasn't already a likely Tesla buyer and is now somehow an "additional" buyer and that doesn't seem terribly likely.

Anybody I've met who follows FSD closely either already owns a Tesla, or has a fair intent to buy one in the future. It's not like there's some guy who is a die hard Chrysler fan but ALSO follows FSD really closely, and will suddenly flip brand loyalty once it makes Chucks turn reliably.


The big demand lever is when there's FSD news that gets beyond folks following FSD progress on a regular basis. Say when Tesla announces >L2 for example- that'd be all over the news and reach those actual "additional" folks.

My experience is that they will bundle in the routine stuff like the trunk harness with a regular service request. They were coming out to do the air filter, so just added that. I Had other wiring tidies done when I had the steering rods done under warranty, that was at the service centre.

 

[Musskiah]

So do we know when M3L is supposed to deliver?

 

[Musskiah]

The original plan was clearly to build Model 3 at GigaTexas. An old article to consider:

Tesla seemingly slips, briefly reiterates that Model 3 will be built in Giga Texas

Tesla may be quite silent about it in recent months, but the company still seems to be intent on producing the Model 3 in Gigafactory Texas. This was hinted at in the company’s newly-launched Manufacturing page, which briefly indicated that Giga Texas would be the site for the production of the...

www.google.com

There is limited room at Fremont. It would make sense for M3 Ludacris dedicated lines and eventually the LR and SR models to enter production in Texas. It makes shipping to the east coast of US and Canada less complex. They could take advantage of megacasting and perhaps even the unboxed manufacturing protocol. Also, as the price of the lower end M3 has come down, the TAM will rise as interest rates are cut in half over the next 24 months and monthly payments become much more affordable. Autonomous M3s will be gobbled up by the consumer in larger volumes as the inherent value is realized. I think Tesla is anticipating this inevitability. Lastly, M2 won't be produced in large volumes until at least late 2026 and more likely 2027. M3 will remain the low cost Tesla for some time still.

 

[phantasms]

The original plan was clearly to build Model 3 at GigaTexas. An old article to consider:

Tesla seemingly slips, briefly reiterates that Model 3 will be built in Giga Texas

Tesla may be quite silent about it in recent months, but the company still seems to be intent on producing the Model 3 in Gigafactory Texas. This was hinted at in the company’s newly-launched Manufacturing page, which briefly indicated that Giga Texas would be the site for the production of the...

www.google.com

There is limited room at Fremont. It would make sense for M3 Ludacris dedicated lines and eventually the LR and SR models to enter production in Texas.

oh please please please don't put 4680s in the Model 3Ludicrous. Please no.

 

[GOVA]

which one don't you like - 46mm or 80mm or both?

 

[Musskiah]

oh please please please don't put 4680s in the Model 3Ludicrous. Please no.

Hate to burst your bubble, but it's gonna happen. The 4680 form factor is more energy dense, delivering more power from the same volume. All high performance vehicles will be 4680.

 

[Tronguy]

Me thinks that Tesla really goes after those who brak NDA. It is not good for anybody/anything to break Tesla's NDA for 5 minutes of "fame"

I’m going Glomar on this. But the point is: if one finds out something, then blabs, and it gets traced back to the blabber, it’s not the blabber who’s going to get fired, it’ll be the employee. So, how much does the blabber hate the employee, to the point of wrecking their career forever?

Loose lips sink ships and peoples’ lives.

 

[2daMoon]

Wait until Teslaboomermama and the letter writers hear about this...

U.S. Senator calls for SEC to investigate Tesla Board for 'failure to manage' Elon Musk

U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren has called for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to investigate Tesla and its Board of Directors for "failing to manage the actions of CEO Elon Musk in his dual role as CEO of Twitter and Tesla."

www.teslarati.com

Warren might be getting some new pen pals.

 

[ggr]

60 years later is nothing. My father made us practice the 12 Yorkshiremen sketch 80 years ago in the snow before breakfast. We had to go get our cousins because there were only 10 of us living in that 2 room house and oh man...let me tell you how hard it was getting snow.

... and you tell the yoong people of today that, and they woon't believe yoo, oh nooo.

 

[GhostSkater]

Juniper Mystery: I had a thought from the Universe, (maybe not ours). I just haven't heard any good answers yet, so why not an edge case scenario for fun.

Would there be any remote reason to attempt a semi-automated unboxed assembly that resulted in an unboxed Juniper in Tx? Why right? Is there anything that Juniper brings to the table that could be uniquely special for unboxed? Or they will use them to do it? Hey, body panels are already painted!

This got me wondering, what is truly different between regular and unboxed if you remove the factory? Same panels, same dash, motors, castings? What changes - bolts instead of welds that hold the sections together? Plenty changes in the factory, but the vehicle? So if you didn't have a model to build yet, but wanted to test some novel process.

And wouldn't we want all of the vehicles unboxed someday? Major retooling, but if it's lower cost, it may warrant some planning and testing anyway.

Ya, it's out there, I warned you. At least I didn't mention that Optimus was integrated into it already.

Everything changes, to the point you basically have to reengineer the vehicle from scratch

There is a Autoline Afterhours episode that goes into that

For example, for the way a body is constructed today, it isn’t a matter of cutting it, or it that case, attaching everything after and it’s all good, all the loads paths change because the method you used to join the parts doesn’t work anymore

In my opinion, for a unboxed vehicle to make the most use of it, at least, I has to be front wheel drive and with brake by wire for the rear wheels

This way you have a complex module at the front with everything, drive, thermal, instrument panel, infotainment, etc

The other modules have barely anything, windows and locks on the doors, a few wire runs for lights and that’s it, then you bolt the battery, connect the charge port and this whole front module

My point is, doing that with the complexity that a Model Y has doesn’t take advantage of the unboxing manufacturing unless you completely change what a Model Y is

 

[MC3OZ]

And wouldn't we want all of the vehicles unboxed someday? Major retooling, but if it's lower cost, it may warrant some planning and testing anyway.

Yes, but I think for Model 3/Y that could be up to 10 years away...

Personally I would try to do unboxed Model S/X in around 5-7 years, or at least new vehicles on the same platform.

The think the new Roadster may be unboxed and may have 4680s, perhaps new higher density 4680s from Kato road.

IMO we are going to see a fairly rapid ramp of new Gen3 vehicles and 4680s will be mostly going into these vehicles.

 

[Musskiah]

Wait until Teslaboomermama and the letter writers hear about this...

U.S. Senator calls for SEC to investigate Tesla Board for 'failure to manage' Elon Musk

U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren has called for the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to investigate Tesla and its Board of Directors for "failing to manage the actions of CEO Elon Musk in his dual role as CEO of Twitter and Tesla."

www.teslarati.com

Warren might be getting some new pen pals.

Has any CEO in the history of the world endured as much endless scruitny as Elon? I ask this curiously because I am truly unaware.

 

[Linkmeup]

Has any CEO in the history of the world endured as much endless scruitny as Elon? I ask this curiously because I am truly unaware.

He wants it too. It's endearing - great great CEO/Entrepreneur! Great investment!

 

[Southpasfan]

Has any CEO in the history of the world endured as much endless scruitny as Elon? I ask this curiously because I am truly unaware.

there hasn't been a CEO in the history of the world who loved to shitpost on Twitter so much he bought it.

Actually, this week was good news on that front. Six months ago, the Don Lemon interview would have probably had a ton of stories and effect on the stock price. Now I think Elon's hobby and his views on whatever are sort of baked in to the price.

Many people on here made the argument that whatever he posts on X ought to be irrelevant unless its about Tesla, and its a fair point, however, when did the markets ever respond to any "fair point" in the history of the world, eh?

 

[mongo]

Hate to burst your bubble, but it's gonna happen. The 4680 form factor is more energy dense, delivering more power from the same volume. All high performance vehicles will be 4680.

The increased energy per cell is due to increased volume of the cylinder.
As of Q2, the Cybercell 4680s are on par with 2170 on a same-chemistry basis.

Against our battery energy density targets, the cyber cell is at our expectations on a like-for-like electrochemistry basis, where we're yet to integrate silicon or in-house cathode production, both reviewed on Battery Day, which do bring significant further energy density and cost improvements. Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

That said, 4680s would make an 3Lud eligible for Clean Vehicle Credit if they keep the MSRP below $55k, plus cut costs $45/kWh...

 

[SmokyPeat]

The increased energy per cell is due to increased volume of the cylinder.
As of Q2, the Cybercell 4680s are on par with 2170 on a same-chemistry basis.


That said, 4680s would make an 3Lud eligible for Clean Vehicle Credit if they keep the MSRP below $55k, plus cut costs $45/kWh...

I think the main concern some might currently have with the 4680 packs, is the lackluster charging curve. That will invariably improve over time.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Has any CEO in the history of the world endured as much endless scruitny as Elon? I ask this curiously because I am truly unaware.

Henry Ford has attracted a lot of scrutiny for sure. Most of it posthumous.

 

[phantasms]

Hate to burst your bubble, but it's gonna happen. The 4680 form factor is more energy dense, delivering more power from the same volume. All high performance vehicles will be 4680.

Yeah. Eventually, sure. At that point bring them on. Thus far the 4680 Teslas leave a lot to be desired.

 

[aronth5]

Service what? No oil changes, no starter motor, no tune ups, no radiator, no water pump, no fuel filter changes etc…. I’ve got 110,000 miles on my 3 and my brake pads are like new, so not even a brake job required.

People think they need a service center down the block. Not that a Tesla has never had to be towed, but you know the point I’m making.

The biggest exception from me is that I’m not expecting the worse case scenario to happen with a car meant to have significantly less service requirements, and that I’m willing to simply deal with what may happen if it happens. It’s like people who keep thinking they need 500 miles of range and be able to charge fully in 5 minutes to have an EV be able to work for them and all the other reasons they come up with.

Don't exaggerate. Nobody is saying a "service center down the block" and yes I realize your just trying to make a point. Within 2 hours isn't unreasonable.
Great to see that Tesla is opening two new Canadian service centers. (Ontario and BC) I'm sure Tesla will see a lot more buyers near both. All a lot of people are saying is for Tesla to move a little faster building more that's all.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Thanks Elon! Keep up the good fight. Apparently no one else is going to stand up for what's right.