Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Paracelsus]

Marvelous post, thank you! How was the charging experience? Did you stick with 250s?

Thanks @CHGolferJim. Yes, we absolutely prioritized stopping at 250's, as the charging understandably took about 20% longer than our 100 kWh Plaid and 100 kWh Model X with the CT's bigger battery. The last 20 miles or so of charge does seem to be a bit slower than with the 2170's, and it does feel like the charge rate is tapered off a bit earlier in the charge cycle as well - so our experience would support the 2170/4680 theoretical charge rate comparison graphs I have seen previously posted here. I also imagine that many of us with the first CT's are bleeding on the sharp edge of the spear with our charging experiences as real-time Beta testers because Tesla would almost certainly start out conservative on all features of the truck that they can ramp up over time with over the air software updates, and thus I do expect (hope?) these phases of the charge cycle speed up some in the future when the other features are fully released to us as well.

Our trip took us across the Gulf states to my Brother's to help him with his Barndominium construction project, so I can also report that I have hauled construction supplies in the bed of the CT with the tonneau cover closed during a couple torrential Gulf rainfalls, and I was extremely impressed with how dry the truck bed was afterwards, and how well the single windshield wiper performed. No reason to ever leave the far left lane of fast traffic - visibility was awesome. And I can now finally quantify from first-hand experience the brilliance of Tesla partnering with Buc-ee's for charging stations in these massive gas station stops. Despite some helpful TMC previous discussions regarding that partnership, I had no idea of the scale of these stations. The longer charge time seemed irrelevent at Bucc-ee's, as the scope and scale of these places kept us entertained and met all our needs. In all seriousness, we even found an item in Bucc-ee's we needed for our upcoming Camino de Santiago hike that cost twice as much at the REI store we just visited. And the Superchargers were positioned where the majority of the gas-station traffic had a view of the CT, which of course resulted in many more requests for photos of the truck and lots of questions from folks excited to see one finally in the wild. The Bucc-ee's partnership for Supercharging wasn't just a good logistic move for Tesla, it may prove to be a brilliant marketing move as well.

 

[Gigapress]

Adding more cameras, or any other sensors for that matter, opens up a whole other can of worms in then requiring training data from those new camera locations and sensors.

But I’ve been convinced FSD in its current configuration was always intended to remain Level 2, the human is there to account for any sensor deficiencies and own liability along the way. But V12 sounds like a promising step towards the *final* non-Beta release as a driver assist.

If the intent was always to have FSD in its current configuration be level 2, then Tesla leadership has been making many criminally fraudulent statements to investors for several years. They've been very clear about what the intent is.

 

[Curt Renz]

Cathie Wood today bought TSLA shares for her three ARK funds that can own TSLA: ARKK, ARKQ & ARKW.

 

[Dutchie]

I remember watching these kind of videos when the Model S came out. Apparently there are still a lot of people out there who have no clue.

 

[AndrewZ]

If the intent was always to have FSD in its current configuration be level 2, then Tesla leadership has been making many criminally fraudulent statements to investors for several years. They've been very clear about what the intent is.

I still very much think the goal is to get to robotaxis…. in some future hardware/software iteration, just not the one that exists in vehicles manufactured to date.

 

[nativewolf]

Henry Ford has attracted a lot of scrutiny for sure. Most of it posthumous.

Howard Hughes

 

[JustSaying]

OMG. That happened to me yesterday. My brother-in-law saw one in Louisville before I got to see one in Atlanta. Sent me a pic.

What is it about brother-in-laws?

A "Black" Cyber Truck at the Cathedral City CA, Tesla service center yesterday. Looked great....

 

[MC3OZ]

I still very much think the goal is to get to robotaxis…. in some future hardware/software iteration, just not the one that exists in vehicles manufactured to date.

The goal is robotaxis with all cars made to date including HW3 cars... they might not be able to hit the goal, but that is a separate issue.

Should additional hardware be needed, that is an expensive retrofit to cars owned by customers who have already paid for FSD.

However, if it is required, I expect that hardware upgrade to happen.

The alternative is a generous trade in offer with the FSD being transferred to a new car.

 

[2daMoon]

Regardless if it’s actual idle days or if it is less workers working on each shift, the financial impact is the same.

Workers are working 23% less hours. Unless Tesla has somehow made an amazingly huge overnight efficiency gain, then cars produced will also drop a considerable amount (~23%) from somewhere around 19k-20k per week to 15k-16k per week.

If volume stays the same with less workers on a shift, why couldn't that mean more efficiency has been found? Can you say with any certainty that it hasn't been?

Oh, wait, Tesla would never do something like that anyway, would they? /s Particularly after releasing an upgraded model touted for being easier to build.

Can you control your urge to armchair quarterback this game when you don't have any idea what is really happening on the field of play?

Maybe if you hold off lashing out and wait for the numbers to determine whether your hunch was even close, or, at least alternate by swinging a guesstimate to the positive as often as you do to the negative. Non-fact-based rumor can be spun either way, can't it?

Perhaps they are culling dead wood and a hiring spree will replace them in the coming weeks. But, the news won't find that worthy of a headline to feed the negativity, will it?

 

[2daMoon]

Most other companies in a somewhat challenging environment with a declining stock price would immediately put a hold on spending.

FTFY

Does anyone have any impression that Tesla's board or management has ever based decisions upon the level of the stock price? (other than timing for a split, of course)

Other companies can cater to their shareholders to their heart's content, but as long as Tesla's fundamentals are solid, which means better than the other guys, they should keep doing what they're doing. It has worked pretty well so far, hasn't it?

 

[Quesder]

MotorTrend posted a comparison article of Cybertruck, Rivian RT1, and Ford Lightning F-150

https://www.motortrend.com/reviews/2024-tesla-cybertruck-vs-rivian-r1t-vs-ford-f-150-lightning-comparison-test-review/

CyberTruck was not so good and got the second place. The atricle's Facebook comments are actually laughing at all 3 of them.
If anyone here puts his or her TSLA hope on CT ramp-up, he or she probably will be disappointed.

"That said, we’re sufficiently wowed by the Tesla’s technological leap (48-volt base electrical architecture, steer-by-wire, borosilicate glass windshield, dent-proof stainless skin, etc.) to rank it ahead of Ford’s e-truck 1.0. But its lackluster towing and off-roading performance, its middling on-road performance, and the fact that form so utterly subjugates function throughout this vehicle, land it in second place behind the sleek, swift, luxurious, smooth-riding, adventure-optimized Rivian R1T."

 

[Dutchie]

I like Tesla Elon
I like SpaceX elon
I like Neuralink Elon
Heck, I even like hyperloop Elon

I just deleted X — my goodness what a cesspool that has become since Elon took over.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1771411319025250724

 

[Tachyon]

MotorTrend posted a comparison article of Cybertruck, Rivian RT1, and Ford Lightning F-150

https://www.motortrend.com/reviews/2024-tesla-cybertruck-vs-rivian-r1t-vs-ford-f-150-lightning-comparison-test-review/

CyberTruck was not so good and got the second place. The atricle's Facebook comments are actually laughing at all 3 of them.
If anyone here puts his or her TSLA hope on CT ramp-up, he or she probably will be disappointed.

"That said, we’re sufficiently wowed by the Tesla’s technological leap (48-volt base electrical architecture, steer-by-wire, borosilicate glass windshield, dent-proof stainless skin, etc.) to rank it ahead of Ford’s e-truck 1.0. But its lackluster towing and off-roading performance, its middling on-road performance, and the fact that form so utterly subjugates function throughout this vehicle, land it in second place behind the sleek, swift, luxurious, smooth-riding, adventure-optimized Rivian R1T."

Funny how some people can’t or aren’t able to see an advertisement masquerading as a research piece.

 

[Mengy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1771411319025250724

After the past few years of Elon being super optimistic about FSD timelines, its really hard not to laugh at his "feature complete in a few months" comment here!

It will be interesting to see how FSD v12.4 turns out though. The jump from 12.2 to 12.3 has been incredible, if that rate of progress continues then I have to admit he might be correct this time. Maybe. Possibly. Hopefully. LOL!

 

[cliff harris]

MotorTrend posted a comparison article of Cybertruck, Rivian RT1, and Ford Lightning F-150

https://www.motortrend.com/reviews/2024-tesla-cybertruck-vs-rivian-r1t-vs-ford-f-150-lightning-comparison-test-review/

CyberTruck was not so good and got the second place. The atricle's Facebook comments are actually laughing at all 3 of them.
If anyone here puts his or her TSLA hope on CT ramp-up, he or she probably will be disappointed.

"That said, we’re sufficiently wowed by the Tesla’s technological leap (48-volt base electrical architecture, steer-by-wire, borosilicate glass windshield, dent-proof stainless skin, etc.) to rank it ahead of Ford’s e-truck 1.0. But its lackluster towing and off-roading performance, its middling on-road performance, and the fact that form so utterly subjugates function throughout this vehicle, land it in second place behind the sleek, swift, luxurious, smooth-riding, adventure-optimized Rivian R1T."

You think the CT ramp up wont happen because a few idiots post negativity on facebook?
BTW, rivian LOSES a fortune on every truck they make. Even if everyone universally agreed that the rivian truck is better than the cybertruck its absolutely irrelevant in the long term, because eventually the saudi government will get tired of subsidizing high income American truck buyers and rivian will collapse, or will have to at least double their prices (and then collapse...).

The only actual competition Tesla has is other EV manufacturers who generate profits. Meaning Chinese ones. US efforts by Ford, GM etc, are simple window dressing to allow them to push a 'nobody wants EVs' narrative. Lucid/Rivian are just moneypots propped up by investors who don't understand financial reports.

Also I suspect mototrend love the idea of getting some Ford and Rivian ad-money, and know they probably wont see a penny from Tesla. Screw em.

 

[DarkandStormy]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1771411319025250724

We've heard variations of "a few months" going on, what, seven years now? Yawn.

 

[Usain]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1771411319025250724

Feature complete can mean a lot of different things. For instance, I doubt that FSD will know how to pick up robotaxi passengers in a few months. I even doubt it will be able to pull into my driveway and back into the garage. And it definitely won't know which side to park on for access to my charger.

I think by feature complete, Elon just means that all the features promised on the order page will basically "be there". That's certainly possible in a few months.

 

[Drax7]

I would agree TSLA will likely go a bit lower after the Q1 ER, but if someone wanted to buy shares to hold long term, like several years out, then I'd say buying now or right after the ER won't make a huge difference, not in the long term.

I don’t think we will go lower after the qtr, it’s substantially discounted.
Moreover at that point it will be “safe” to buy on FSD prospects.
It’s difficult to choreograph this stuff. Just hold on.

 

[Singuy]

You think the CT ramp up wont happen because a few idiots post negativity on facebook?
BTW, rivian LOSES a fortune on every truck they make. Even if everyone universally agreed that the rivian truck is better than the cybertruck its absolutely irrelevant in the long term, because eventually the saudi government will get tired of subsidizing high income American truck buyers and rivian will collapse, or will have to at least double their prices (and then collapse...).

The only actual competition Tesla has is other EV manufacturers who generate profits. Meaning Chinese ones. US efforts by Ford, GM etc, are simple window dressing to allow them to push a 'nobody wants EVs' narrative. Lucid/Rivian are just moneypots propped up by investors who don't understand financial reports.

Also I suspect mototrend love the idea of getting some Ford and Rivian ad-money, and know they probably wont see a penny from Tesla. Screw em.

Li auto is the only one generating profits and byd may or may not because they don't separate the many divisions they have. The rest are losing their shirts, couldn't even hit a positive gross margin.