Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVWatcher]

The idea of FSD - and selling that idea while taking in tens of thousands of dollars per customer - is more valuable to Tesla than actually implementing it.

If they were on the verge of a true robotaxi / robotaxi network, why would they give up some % of that profit to owners of the vehicles? Elon said in 2015 (? The year escapes me but it's been awhile) that they had an automated snake charger. So if the cars can drive themselves and pull into a Supercharger stall and get a charge autonomously, why go through the mess of splitting things with current owners? After all, the net present value of FSD is "on the order of a couple hundred thousand dollars," per Elon. It seems more valuable to capture 100% of that rather than split it with an owner for $12k or $200/month.

Short term? Cash. Long term, nothing.

Also, medium term there is more value in building out factories than there is in owning the fleet. Tesla is better off selling cars that can be taxis to customers and getting paid for the car with a profit, and then taking a cut of the taxi service fees and spending that money on more factories or more R+D.

Long term that might not be true. Or maybe the banks will start tripping over themselves to give tesla loans to build those robotaxis, but rates are ridiculous right now.

 

[cab]

Where are all the folks who sold at < $170 now?

I'm right here. What did you need? I had to do SOMETHING to pump the stock. You're welcome (but this partial sale was really just for @SOULPEDL ).

 

[Drax7]

Sold out bulls worried about camera calibration.

 

[larmor]

If they filter the Asian scenario data for drivers who are most successful with the least problems the training should work there as well as it does in the US.

They don't need to filter since 99% of Asian drivers are on target and super vigilant about their cars. Anecdote: had a taxi driver in Istanbul watch his Turkish drama on his phone while simultaneously driving in heavy Saturday night traffic. Another: 5+ lane highway from Shanghai airport to downtown, no one is keeping in the lanes, no one cares about the cameras on the highways, and our minivan weaving in and out at high speed.

 

[sdtslafan]

I learned my lesson the hard way. I sold my entire stake in Tesla when the Fremont factory closed during Covid. When revenue went to zero. And that’s when the stock took off. So the numbers including deliveries don’t always matter is what I took from that.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

The idea of FSD - and selling that idea while taking in tens of thousands of dollars per customer - is more valuable to Tesla than actually implementing it.

If they were on the verge of a true robotaxi / robotaxi network, why would they give up some % of that profit to owners of the vehicles? Elon said in 2015 (? The year escapes me but it's been awhile) that they had an automated snake charger. So if the cars can drive themselves and pull into a Supercharger stall and get a charge autonomously, why go through the mess of splitting things with current owners? After all, the net present value of FSD is "on the order of a couple hundred thousand dollars," per Elon. It seems more valuable to capture 100% of that rather than split it with an owner for $12k or $200/month.

No, Musk didn't say they had an automated snake charger.

On the stage at a Tesla event Musk talked about the car driving autonomously across the country and a person in the crowd shouted out the question, roughly, "How will it charge?" Musk ad-libbed the idea of the snake charger, had an engineer create a basic proof of concept, a video was released, and that was the end of it.

 

[larmor]

We know the demo thing cannot happen currently, but maybe when/if they get the calibration to work without driving. It's not released at this point, so it's not imminent.

They could use a demo vehicle to offer a test drive in the mean time. I know from the delivery posts, they aren't doing it as of yesterday.

Or schedule a test drive demo with a buyer's new tesla after delivery. It is complex and takes some time to trust.

 

[SOULPEDL]

No, Musk didn't say they had an automated snake charger.

On the stage at a Tesla event Musk talked about the car driving autonomously across the country and a person in the crowd shouted out the question, roughly, "How will it charge?" Musk ad-libbed the idea of the snake charger, had an engineer create a basic proof of concept, a video was released, and that was the end of it.

I swear I saw a video of the snake charger actually docking to a vehicle. Silver goose-neck in construction, but War of the Worlds in appearance!

 

[GOVA]

Where are all the folks who sold at < $170 now?

I would not count the chickens yet.

 

[jerry33]

Would you prefer to pay $200/month or $50/month for those 8 months where you are not taking a road trip?

Give some consideration as to which would feel more like a penalty.

Perhaps the base could be for the year? Accumulating unused miles each month over time. I'm sure a study of "phone minutes" rate plan strategies from back in the day would provide some metrics for planning the service charges.

There could also be tiers, as someone suggested. Then you select the appropriate tier for your use scenario as needed. Or, it automatically bills you for the tier you are in for the period.

I would much rather pay the $12/15K up front with no monthly payment. Monthly payments are how you get into financial trouble.

 

[scaesare]

Another "competitor" going down the shute:

Fisker shares halted as EV company navigates uncertain future

Shares of Fisker, a California-based electric vehicle startup, were halted Monday. This comes after the company warned, in an earnings report in March, that it might not have enough cash to survive the year.

finance.yahoo.com

The money quote from the article:


Yep, if you don't do a good job on all of the software yourself you are screwed.

Yet Fisker says " the problems were being addressed through software updates."... are these multiple vendors supplying update all of the sudden going to play well together?

 

[jerry33]

I swear I saw a video of the snake charger actually docking to a vehicle. Silver goose-neck in construction, but War of the Worlds in appearance!

Yes, you did, but it was a long time ago.

 

[scaesare]

I swear I saw a video of the snake charger actually docking to a vehicle. Silver goose-neck in construction, but War of the Worlds in appearance!

They did a video of the prototype they made.:

 

[jerry33]

No, Musk didn't say they had an automated snake charger.

On the stage at a Tesla event Musk talked about the car driving autonomously across the country and a person in the crowd shouted out the question, roughly, "How will it charge?" Musk ad-libbed the idea of the snake charger, had an engineer create a basic proof of concept, a video was released, and that was the end of it.

I suspect the issue with the snake charger was that it would be too easy to steal. Inductive chargers can't be stolen and the wires can't be cut (assumes they are in the pavement).

 

[SOULPEDL]

They did a video of the prototype they made.:

This was the simplest IMO. Remember all the other versions from EV competitors? Very elaborate robotic contraptions. It really was a thing at one time, like right out of Tomorrow Land.

 

[scaesare]

This was the simplest IMO. Remember all the other versions from EV competitors? Very elaborate robotic contraptions. It really was a thing at one time, like right out of Tomorrow Land.

Yeah... other vendors let the engineers go for the deign aesthetic... witness The CCS Connector.... whereas Elon says "Make it cool like Doc Octopus"

The video from the automated battery swap station mechanism a decade ago was cool too. Tesla's not afraid to try cool and new stuff and see if it sticks. Far too many people see this and say "Look at all of these broken promises and Tesla failures"... largely because they can't handle having the curtain pulled back... whereas I'm happy seeing the works in-progress and aborted attempts... much better than the typical "take as little risk as possible" organization...

 

[SOULPEDL]

I think there will be a period of time when some of today's Tesla vehicles do participate in a robotaxi network. But most won't.

The Gen 3 vehicle is the purpose-built robotaxi. That's the one Tesla is counting on. So selling FSD right now is just a way to grow the business in the meantime.

I will, and my brother Bob will using both his Model 3's with FSD purchased for this purpose. The estimate per Elon was about $30K annual profit per vehicle.

Many likely gave up, traded in, or sold those early FSD vehicles, but some of us are actually still waiting for this to play pay out.

 

[GhostSkater]

They did a video of the prototype they made.:

What is the equivalent to do not drop the soap in prison? Do not drop the wrench in the garage? You might get charged up

 

[SOULPEDL]

Short term? Cash. Long term, nothing.

Also, medium term there is more value in building out factories than there is in owning the fleet. Tesla is better off selling cars that can be taxis to customers and getting paid for the car with a profit, and then taking a cut of the taxi service fees and spending that money on more factories or more R+D.

Long term that might not be true. Or maybe the banks will start tripping over themselves to give tesla loans to build those robotaxis, but rates are ridiculous right now.

Not necessarily best for the mission. I still believe Tesla someday will stop selling vehicles for the TN, or at least part of the volume if not all.

My reason is that Tesla would be get far better utilization than Bob and I would with our pretend rental businesses. Then there's all the others who don't ever want to rent theirs out. That's wasting batteries. I feel this everyday - 2 large packs in the garage doing nothing.

 

[SOULPEDL]

What is the equivalent to do not drop the soap in prison? Do not drop the wrench in the garage? You might get charged up

That's not what she said.
(runs away fast...)