Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Gee I wonder why they don’t share anymore. View attachment 1032981

So many things could be said, but let’s stick to what I believe is your point.

Tesla is keeping secret sauce to themselves because of the threat that, at least this company, would take the last 10% of the difference in the vehicles, make it better like they have the other 90%, and sell the resultant vehicle at a loss.



Factually, Tesla has always been tight lipped. They got punished for that and slowly over time they loosened their lips and got punished for that.

However, as it became apparent that Tesla was going to be staying around, as Tesla began to eat away at market share, as Tesla grew beyond imagination, in addition to the general punishment for being more open, they also began to see people stealing IP and companies grabbing at their publicly announced ideas and make them their own.

So, yeah. Back to being tight lipped again because people suck. I’m waiting for the day Elon gets tired of being stomped on by the very people he’s trying to help.

 

[Krugerrand]

ouch. was literally wondering what the "2 specs it will take 3-5 years to catch up on" Would you prefer a direct link?

Then say that in your post so people aren’t guessing your purpose in posting that.

And maybe provide the 90% metrics that this guy is claiming his vehicle exceeds the Tesla vehicle. Because I’m not sure more than one or two of us here have even heard of the vehicle, let alone garnered any firsthand experience driving the thing. Just by that, we could then extrapolate the 10% if we didn’t already determine the guy is full of it on the 90% metric.

 

[Xd85]

Then say that in your post so people aren’t guessing your purpose in posting that.

And maybe provide the 90% metrics that this guy is claiming his vehicle exceeds the Tesla vehicle. Because I’m not sure more than one or two of us here have even heard of the vehicle, let alone garnered any firsthand experience driving the thing. Just by that, we could then extrapolate the 10% if we didn’t already determine the guy is full of it on the 90% metric.

article doesn't delve into specs unforuntunately, hence asking the forum. People a bit (more) presumptuous these days i see

 

[Krugerrand]

article doesn't delve into specs unforuntunately, hence asking the forum. People a bit (more) presumptuous these days i see

‍

Then ask! Let me help you.

Has anyone here heard of the (fill in the blank) and driven it?

I have not, but I’m thinking it might be time for mandatory mind reading classes in schools since it seems too difficult for many to express their thoughts in words nowadays.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I call this the earlybird sell-off. Everyone talking about how it will drop on deliveries - last one out's a rotten egg.
Soooo.... I wonder if I should buy some TLSA soon, or wait. Maybe a little now?

 

[Unpilot]

I'm working on my post doc in scrolling these days.

The "investors" forum keeps getting infected by the day/quarter trader folks.

HODL!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

2024 is the year y'all!! She means it this time!!

GM will be executing on its EV ambitions in 2024, says CEO Mary Barra

General Motors chair and CEO Mary Barra tells Yahoo Finance this is the year of executing on big goals.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[NicoV]

I worry about the compute in the car as this is fixed. I would guess with 300K less lines of code it is fine, but on the flip side can the NN can get large and inefficient as you add training? This would be interesting to understand better.

Those 300K lines of code were executed on the CPU, removing them doesn’t free up compute cycles on the GPU/TPU that executes the neural network.
The neural network doesn’t get more complex by more training. It would get bigger if it turns out that more layers or neurons are needed, but even there Tesla tries to make the weight matrices as sparse as possible in order to lessen the amount of required compute.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Gee I wonder why they don’t share anymore. View attachment 1032981

If it will take a Chinese company 3-5 years to catch up with Tesla on tech/cost then how long does it take for an American/European company? So 3-5 years to catch up on 2023/2024 Tesla but its not like Tesla will just take a nap like the rabbit and wait for the turtle to catch up. WOW.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

The main psychological support for my HODL strategy is this thread, thank you guys. But this is helped along by the real time sales in the world's most mature EV market.

Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge

Live EV registration stats from Norway

elbilstatistikk.no

No the competition is still not coming, but who earth is buying those BZ4Xs ?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I would be curious what the per day delivery rate of the F150 Lightning compared to the cybertruck. Are they getting close?

 

[larmor]

Gee I wonder why they don’t share anymore. View attachment 1032981

One of those specifications is making more money per car than it costs to make it.

 

[Usain]

From a FSD perspective I don't worry about the training compute. Somehow this will get solved as the hardware is not fixed.

I worry about the compute in the car as this is fixed. I would guess with 300K less lines of code it is fine, but on the flip side can the NN can get large and inefficient as you add training? This would be interesting to understand better.

Yes, I think that's a big unknown right now. Presumably, Tesla has an idea of where that is going but they haven't spilled the beans yet.

My assumption is that Elon is telling the truth when he says he thinks hardware 3 can do the job. But he doesn't sound all that sure.

 

[jerry33]

If it will take a Chinese company 3-5 years to catch up with Tesla on tech/cost then how long does it take for an American/European company?

Just add a zero.

 

[Knightshade]

My assumption is that Elon is telling the truth when he says he thinks hardware 3 can do the job. But he doesn't sound all that sure.

FWIW I assume he was telling the truth when he said that about HW2. Then again when he said it about HW2.5. Then again when he said it about HW3.

But until they actually achieve it, nobody including Elon actually knows how much in car compute is "enough" to do the job.

 

[mongo]

Just go to any car loan calculator. You will see that, over a 5yr loan, the payments for an extra $12,000 borrowed are about $200/month if the interest rate is 6%. (figures are approximate)

If the interest rate falls, the payments fall, making the monthly loan cost for lifetime FSD less than $200/month (and those payments stop after 5yrs)

It is far from unaffordable at its current price of $12,000. Tesla are probably tracking this type of calculation to make aure they can price FSD "lifetime" and "monthly" accordingly

At 0%, 5 years = 60 months * $200/ month = $12k.
At 6%, a $12k loan = $232 a month.
Loans payments are required to keep the car, continuing the subscription is optional.

 

[CitizenKane]

You called it a long shot. There's your correlation

Look. as an investor I am always trying to deepen my understanding, I'm not here to argue (there's Twitter for that..). So since, if I understand you correctly, you seem to object to me not placing a great value on Dojo, would you care to elaborate on why you feel it is worth a lot? Is it the point made by others that it decreases the dependency on NVIDIA, which I understand but still don't see as a considerable value driver, or is it something else?

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm working on my post doc in scrolling these days.

The "investors" forum keeps getting infected by the day/quarter trader folks.

HODL!

Folks are completely capable of filling up pages of nonsense without my input.
I simply asked if TSLA was a good buy, to test the crowd's fear level or appetite.
Thanks for your response. Of course HODL.

 

[GhostSkater]

Took the Model 3 out in the rain for the first time

I knew Tesla traction control is amazing, but holy hell, experiencing in person, you can floor it on a slick surface and it just accelerates with no drama, no brake grabbing the tires, etc, If you time it just right you can have a bit of fun getting out of roundabouts with some butt action

Wish I could take it on a dirt mud road to play around, maybe I will get some snow with summer tires on the weekend to really see how magic it is, if I never post again you guys know what happened

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I simply asked if TSLA was a good buy

Not sure if serious.